Situation matters for NFL players. Imagine if we put Nico Collins on the Jets and Garrett Wilson on the Texans. How would we be valuing those two players in this imaginary world? Which one would you be excited about starting in the fantasy playoffs over the next few weeks?
We also know situations can change drastically from one year to the next. Let's stick with Nico Collins. Week 13 last season, he put up 35 yards on 10 targets. Week 13 this season, he put up 191 yards on 12 targets. Collins may have improved slightly from last year, but he is basically the same player. He is just playing in a passing offense that made a monumental leap forward. Collins went from averaging 9.7 fantasy PPG last season to 17.6 fantasy PPG this season.
Collins is an extreme example. He is playing under a new coaching staff, and the Texans made a massive upgrade at quarterback. However, we can also see major year-to-year improvements in situation even when there is not a complete offensive overhaul. CeeDee Lamb was very good last season. The Cowboys did not make major changes in the offseason, but the offensive line has been able to stay healthy and Dan Prescott has raised his level of play substantially in 2023. Lamb has gone from 17.7 fantasy PPG in 2022 to 22.0 fantasy PPG this season.
The deeper we get into the NFL season, the more we begin to take the current situation for granted. Most of us are in redraft leagues or playing daily fantasy in addition to managing our dynasty teams. It is easy to get bogged down in the weekly grind of making waiver claims, setting lineups, and researching matchups. December is a time of year when we can begin to lose sight of the forest for the trees. The main focus of this month's article is attempting to step back from some of the week-to-week details and focus on the bigger picture.
We are going to refocus on the long term in a couple of ways. First, I want to introduce a new metric, Normalized Fantasy PPG. The idea is to calculate each player's fantasy stats if we assume they are in a perfectly league-average offense. Second, I want to lay out some different scenarios to help us think through both the likelihood of their occurrence and the resulting impact on dynasty player values should they come to fruition.
Timing Note: During the NFL season, the monthly dynasty trade value chart article comes out the first Tuesday of every month. However, the Dynasty Trade Value Chart tool is updated at least once per week during the season, so you always have up-to-date dynasty trade values.
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