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Before we go forward, it’s time to look back and ask the question, “What exactly did we learn playing fantasy football in 2022?”. Then we should ask, how can we use this hard-earned knowledge to be better in 2023 drafts. Next, running back, always a make or break position in fantasy leagues
Note: All ADP data is courtesy of Underdog (Sign up with the code “Footballguys")
We can’t predict injuries
The debate for anyone holding the number one pick included only two running backs - Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey. When the edge went to Taylor, the tiebreaker was often McCaffrey’s injury-riddled 2020 and 2021 vs. Taylor’s strong 17 out of 17 game 2021 campaign. Taylor missed five games between Weeks 1 and 17 and had four other duds. McCaffrey missed zero games and finished as the #2 PPR running back behind Austin Ekeler.
Saquon Barkley was another player whose draft debate revolved around his injury history. He only played in two games in 2020 before tearing an ACL, and missed four in 2021, never really getting on track before or after the injury. Barkley ended up missing zero games during the fantasy football regular season and posting a #5 finish on a points-per-game basis.
What We’ll Do in 2023: Consider McCaffrey as high as #1 again and consider Taylor in the back half of the first round with an injury recency bias discount.
First-round running backs were actually decent investments
Besides McCaffrey and Taylor, the other running backs regularly going in the first round were Austin Ekeler, Derrick Henry, and Dalvin Cook. Najee Harris also went right around the 1-2 turn. Ekeler was one of the best first (or any) round picks, finishing as RB1 and outproducing every wide receiver on a points-per-game basis. Henry defied early season worries of him hitting an overwork cliff and quarterback troubles on his team to finish as RB4. Cook had a lackluster low RB1 season but didn’t miss a game despite yet another shoulder injury (he’s finally having surgery this offseason). Harris was drug down to mid RB2 levels by a morose Steelers offense. Overall, the first-round WR/TE outperformed the running back group, but if you took a running back in the first round in 2022, it probably wasn’t a traumatic experience.
What We’ll Do in 2023: Only McCaffrey, Ekeler, and Taylor have first-round ADPs in early Underdog drafts. Ekeler’s ADP is actually the same as it was in 2022! Don’t fear the running back injury fantasy reaper.
Josh Jacobs isn’t a committee back
After lots of consternation about Josh McDaniels' history overseeing committee backfields in New England and Josh Jacobs playing in the Hall of Fame game, most of us were off of him, with his ADP falling into the 70s by mid-August. What a huge gaffe that turned out to be. Jacobs ended up being a league winner level value, finishing as the #3 running back, outscored by only Ekeler and McCaffrey.
What We’ll Do in 2023: Jacobs is going in the third round in early Underdog drafts. That will be tempting, even with his value subject to change as he enters free agency.
The Cowboys finally realized what they had in Tony Pollard
Sometimes when we can all see the better running back is getting the short end of the stick in a committee, the team finally comes around. We shouldn’t assume rational coaching when we haven’t seen evidence of it in the past, but we should be open to change, and as the season went on, the Cowboys relied more and more on Tony Pollard, to the great benefit of fantasy teams that bet on him in drafts. Pollard finished as RB8 in PPR leagues on a points-per-game basis while carrying a Round 7ish pre-draft ADP. That’s the kind of pick that makes up for a lot of mistakes in your draft.
What We’ll Do in 2023: Running backs who looked like they deserved more work than they got in 2022 include D'Andre Swift, James Cook, Rachaad White, Kenneth Gainwell, and Samaje Perine. They fit in any draft plan, any format.
Rookie backs are great redraft investments again
Used to be, picking the rookie running back who makes a massive fantasy impact in year one was key to putting together a winning team. Going into 2022, we had experienced a few down years from rookie running back classes, and it might have made folks a little more hesitant to take rookies in fantasy drafts. That was a shame as the rookies ended up being very important, with Breece Hall looking like a league winner before tearing his ACL, Kenneth Walker a league winner in the second half of the season at half the price of Hall (who only cost a fourth-round pick in a lot of leagues), Dameon Pierce paying off in a bad offense for what seemed like an aspirational price in the 5th/6th after winning the job in camp, Rachaad White forcing a committee with Leonard Fournette and providing value at a 10th-round cost, Isiah Pacheco becoming a fantasy and NFL starter after going undrafted in a lot of leagues, and Tyler Allgeier taking over the lead role in Atlanta just in time for the fantasy playoffs. Brian Robinson won the Washington backfield and outproduced a very modest draft price after a strong preseason. Only James Cook disappointed among the hotly contested rookies in pre-draft fantasy debates.
What We’ll Do in 2023: The top rookie back, Bijan Robinson, is already RB4 in early Underdog drafts, but only one other rookie back is going in the Top 100. Robinson’s price might seem too rich, but both Hall and Walker delivered that kind of value when healthy, and they didn’t go as high in the draft as Robinson will. Get your Footballguys Rookie Guide, pre-order your Rookie Scouting Portfolio, learn about the class, and target your favorites.
Second-year running backs were not good investments
Najee Harris went around the 1-2 turn despite losing a quarterback who peppered him with targets and came up short of expectations, just like the rest of his offense. Javonte Williams hype pushed his ADP into the second round. Williams caught a bunch of dump-offs in Week 1, disappointed in Weeks 2 and 3, and suffered a catastrophic season-ending and potentially career-altering knee injury in Week 4. The Broncos offense was quicksand for fantasy value, so he likely would have continued to disappoint even if he remained healthy. Travis Etienne was upstaged by James Robinson for the first month plus of the season, looked like a league winner for a few weeks after Robinson was traded to the Jets, and then was largely uneven in the second half of the season. Elijah Mitchell immediately went down with an injury, and then his team traded for Christian McCaffrey before Mitchell took the field again. Michael Carter was getting the better part of the committee with Breece Hall to open the season but was behind UDFA Zonovan Knight by the end of the season, even after Hall went down with a season-ended injury. Miles Sanders and Boston Scott kept Kenneth Gainwell in a fantasy-irrelevant role all season. David Montgomery held off Khalil Herbert despite Herbert posting a 20-157-2 line when Montgomery missed most of Week 3. Herbert did have a couple of strong weeks after that, but the scales never tilted to him in the backfield when he was clearly more dangerous with the ball in his hands than Montgomery.
What We’ll Do in 2023: Walker will cost about the same as Williams did last year, but he has already been his team’s lead back. Invest in confidence. Hall is a dicier bet in the 2nd/3rd, coming back from an ACL injury. Pierce, White, Pacheco, Allgeier, and Robinson are all reasonably priced. There’s a lot more blind optimism around rookie backs than second-year backs who have already proven they belong, so mix them into your draft plans, perhaps even at the expense of a rookie or two.
Letting Nick Chubb fall to the third round was a mistake, but he might still belong there in 2023
Nick Chubb’s outlook was, at worst, unchanged from the seasons that he carried a top 15-18 ADP, but he consistently fell to the third round behind more aspirational running back picks like Williams and DAndre Swift. That looked like a huge mistake when Chubb was the #4 running back heading into his Week 9 bye behind only Ekeler, McCaffrey, and Henry. It ended up being a smaller mistake when Chubb was only RB35 from Weeks 13-17 after Deshaun Watson returned from suspension.
What We’ll Do in 2023: Chubb is once again a third-round pick in early Underdog drafts. Kareem Hunt will be gone, with Jerome Ford possibly in line to be the backup, giving Chubb what would likely be the largest workload of his career. Did Watson only drag down Chubb’s value because he was rusty? Or is there something more structural about Watson taking over the offense that will limit Chubb’s upside? Generally, it’s better to bet on proven talents who are excellent fits in their offense like Chubb than it is to bet against them. Chubb as your RB1 in 2023 might be a winning game plan.
Christian McCaffrey’s backup hit again
...for reasons that almost no one anticipated. McCaffrey stayed healthy, but he was dealt to the 49ers during the season after the Panthers offense and season ended up being sunk to the bottom of the ocean by Matt Rhule and Baker Mayfield. Enter Steve Wilks and a recommitment to the run, and D'Onta Foreman graduated to strong flex with weekly RB1 upside value. Chuba Hubbard had some fantasy relevance as the #2 and could have done more if he hadn’t promptly gotten hurt after what looked like a breakout game.
What We’ll Do in 2023: What if I told you Elijah Mitchell is going in the 12th/13th round in early Underdog drafts? Don't forget Foreman (assuming the Panthers re-sign him) and Hubbard, as the Panthers should be a run-heavy offense again in 2023 even though Frank Reich has taken the reins of the team.
The Running Back Dead Zone lived down to its name
The fourth-sixth round is littered every year with running backs that are compelling enough to pass on elite quarterbacks, strong WR2/WR3, and second tier TE1 options, but have warts that keep them out of the top three rounds. Usually the frogs stay frogs when we kiss them with a selection in our drafts, hence the rise of the name “dead zone” for this part of our drafts when it comes to running backs. 2022 didn’t exactly put a stake through the heart of the concept as Ezekiel Elliott, Cam Akers, J.K. Dobbins, David Montgomery, Elijah Mitchell, Chase Edmonds, and AJ Dillon all disappointed mightily when the dust settled. Breece Hall and Josh Jacobs were good enough to keep us dipping our toes in these waters (and Dameon Pierce wasn’t too shabby), but make sure there’s a lifeguard on duty.
What We’ll Do in 2023: Swift, Aaron Jones, and Dameon Pierce are all in the dead zone in early Underdog drafts, so there’s reason to poke around for value, but if you’re on the fence when you’re on the clock, swim to land with a QB/WR/TE pick.
Uncertain backfields yielded some of the best values at running back
New England, Seattle, and Buffalo didn’t have one back drafted in the top seven rounds last year, even though all of them either had a good offense or a good running game. Rhamondre Stevenson, Kenneth Walker, and Devin Singletary all ended up being good to great values at ADP. You might say, but Rashaad Penny and Damien Harris got hurt - no fair, you just said you couldn’t predict injuries. That’s the point! Uncertain backfields have multiple ways to resolve themselves, and injury is just one of them.
What We’ll Do in 2023: We’ll wait until after what should be an action-packed free agency and draft at the running back position, but backfields like Buffalo, Baltimore, Kansas City, and Philadelphia could present buy opportunities due to uncertainty.
Good offenses create value at running back
In addition to Singletary, Miles Sanders, Jamaal Williams, Jeffery Wilson, Raheem Mostert, and Jerick McKinnon ended up being among the best values at running back in fantasy football leagues. The important takeaway here is to be more willing to pony up for backs in drafts and on the waiver wire if they are attached to a good offense. The secondary takeaway is that we don’t always know which offenses will be good before the season, so adjust on the fly as offenses like Miami, Detroit, and Philadelphia emerge.
What We’ll Do in 2023: Offseason offensive coaching and/or quarterback changes for the Chargers, Jets, Ravens, Panthers, Colts, Broncos, Raiders, and Commanders, among others, could improve outlooks across the board, but especially in the backfield, where touchdown opportunities can make or break fantasy fortunes. Consider putting a chip on a running back simply a bet on the offense to create clarity in your draft plans.
Our waiver wire cups runneth over
We’ve mentioned a lot of the waiver wire heroes already. Names like Mostert, Wilson, Allgeier, Pacheco, Foreman, and Knight. Some grizzled vets such as Latavius Murray and Kenyan Drake helped us too, but no waiver wire pickup in the history of fantasy football was bigger in the fantasy playoffs than Jerick McKinnon, who didn’t get signed until mid-June, went undrafted in most leagues and certainly well behind the Chiefs other free agent signing in the backfield, Ronald Jones II, who was added in March. All McKinnon did was lead all fantasy running backs in PPR scoring from Weeks 14-17, capping a productive year on the waiver wire at the position.
What We Won’t Do in 2023: Despair if our running backs get hurt in the preseason after we draft or look like duds early in the season. It could be opportunity knocking to narrow our focus to running back help on the wire - help that could be the difference between winning a championship and watching someone else get the trophy. Writing off any running back, no matter how meager their contract, how long they sat unsigned in free agency, their age, or their injury history, is a bad idea.
