WR Tiers for Dynasty Startups

Photo: Jeff Hanisch, USA Today Sports

The NFL draft recently concluded, providing us with valuable insights into how we should evaluate position players for the 2023 season and beyond. In the world of fantasy football, especially in dynasty formats, understanding player values and recognizing the tier breaks at each position is crucial. It can make all the difference in building the perfect roster for your dynasty team, whether you're participating in a startup draft or making trades to improve your squad. One position that has changed over the course of Dynasty is the wide receiver position. With most dynasty managers now building through the wide receiver position, gone are the days where you could find dynasty centerpieces later in drafts, and finding values are hard to come by. Dynasty managers have become more adept at constructing their teams strategically, resulting in the rise of zero-running-back strategies throughout the dynasty format. There is a consensus thinking that the wide receiver position is deep, but there are some value landmines that you must look out for. This article will explore how the wide receiver position is valued during startup drafts and provide insights on whom to target in each tier. The tiers presented here are based on my current dynasty rankings, and the average draft position (ADP) data is sourced from DLF's ADP Database. By understanding the dynamics of wide receiver value and leveraging this knowledge in your draft strategy, you'll be well-equipped to make informed decisions and build a winning dynasty team. Let's dive into the tiers and identify the wide receivers worth targeting in each tier to optimize your roster's potential.

Related: See RB Tiers for Dynasty Startups here >>>

TIER 1

There's not much room for debate when it comes to Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase. These two wide receivers are the cream of the crop in dynasty fantasy football. If you have the fortune of having either of these players on your roster, they are true franchise cornerstones that can elevate your team to contender status. However, if you're considering trading them, it's important to be strategic and not settle for just draft picks. Draft picks have a notoriously low hit rate in dynasty leagues, making them risky assets. Instead, aim to secure a top-5 dynasty quarterback in Superflex leagues when negotiating trades involving Jefferson or Chase. These quarterbacks possess the value and stability that match the caliber of these exceptional wide receivers, providing a solid foundation for your team's long-term success.

Justin Jefferson ADP: 11.50 WR1

3-Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR

• 2022 - 373.66 FPTS WR1
• 2021 - 330.40 FPTS WR4
• 2020 - 274.20 FPTS WR6

Ja'Marr Chase ADP: 11.50 WR1

2-Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR

• 2022 - 241.40 FPTS WR12
• 2021 - 314.60 FPTS WR5

TIER 2

After the top tier of wide receivers, we enter the realm of elite options in the next tier. These talented wideouts are typically drafted in the second round of dynasty drafts and can be paired with a top-12 Superflex quarterback. In today's dynasty landscape, these players are often seen as potential cornerstones for teams, and their value often surpasses that of many Superflex quarterbacks ranked in the 13-18 range. In most consensus rankings, A.J. Brown and CeeDee Lamb are widely regarded as the WR3 and WR4. However, it's worth noting that their values may experience a slight dip. Despite his exceptional 2022 season, Brown has a history of injuries that could impact his dynasty value. His age could also be a factor, especially considering the emergence of young and talented receivers in the format, including those in this tier. On the other hand, Lamb had the breakout season everyone had anticipated in 2023. However, he now faces the challenge of adjusting to a new offensive coordinator after Kellen Moore's departure. Furthermore, if the Cowboys' coaching staff is replaced after another disappointing season in 2024, Lamb may find himself playing in yet another new system, which could affect his production and dynasty value. The most intriguing receivers in this tier are Jaylen Waddle and Garrett Wilson. Both possess immense talent and have the potential to challenge for Tier 1 status by the end of the season. One compelling aspect is that Waddle, in particular, may currently be undervalued in drafts, as he is being selected at what could be considered his dynasty floor.

A.J. Brown ADP: 15.50 WR4

3-Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR

• 2022 - 299.60 FPTS WR6
• 2021 - 180.90 FPTS WR32
• 2020 - 247.50 FPTS WR12

CeeDee Lamb ADP: 14.40 WR3

3-Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR

• 2022 - 301.60 FPTS WR5
• 2021 - 232.80 FPTS WR19
• 2020 - 216.70 FPTS WR22

Jaylen Waddle ADP: 23.00 WR7

2-Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR

• 2022 - 259.20 FPTS WR8
• 2021 - 245.80 FPTS WR13

Garrett Wilson ADP: 19.75 WR5

1-Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR

• 2022 - 215.70 FPTS WR21

TIER 3

In this next tier, you are going to find either the young guns with potential but question marks at the quarterback position, such as Chris Olave and Drake London—or two players with WR1 upside but with other question marks in Tee Higgins and Amon-Ra St. Brown. There is a scenario in which Higgins moves on from the Bengals and becomes the primary receiving option for another team. If that happens, we can expect a significant increase in his fantasy value. As for the other three receivers in this tier, they appear to be locked in as their team's primary targets for the foreseeable future, which provides a solid foundation of consistency and a high ceiling for their fantasy production. While these receivers may have some lingering uncertainties, they offer a favorable combination of upside and floor. Investing in any of them as your team's WR1 would position you well for success in your dynasty league.

Tee Higgins ADP: 34.00 WR9

3-Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR

• 2022 - 223.20 FPTS WR18
• 2021 - 219.10 FPTS WR24
• 2020 - 194.60 FPTS WR28

Amon-Ra St. Brown ADP: 21.75 WR6

2-Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR

• 2022 - 267.60 FPTS WR7
• 2021 - 227.30 FPTS WR21

Chris Olave ADP: 27.75 WR8

1-Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR

• 2022 - 198.20 FPTS WR25

Drake London ADP: 37.50 WR11

1-Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR

• 2022 - 178.60 FPTS WR31

TIER 4

Tier four introduces us to the veteran receivers in the dynasty rankings. One receiver who presents a unique challenge in terms of ranking is Tyreek Hill. While his on-field performances justify a spot in the top-12, his age and the immediate loss in value that comes with drafting him need to be considered. Expect about two more years of elite production from Hill, making him a valuable asset for teams focused on winning in the short term. Following Hill, we have a slight drop-off to Stefon Diggs and D.K. Metcalf. Diggs has faced some off-field drama during the off-season, and there is a possibility that he may not be with his current team after the 2023 season. However, he remains tied to quarterback Josh Allen and serves as the primary receiving option in a pass-friendly offense. Metcalf, on the other hand, is the youngest receiver in this tier. However, with the Seahawks adding rookie receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and rookie running back Zach Charbonnet, there is a chance that Metcalf's fantasy ceiling could be limited. It's important to be cautious if you're considering drafting him as your WR1, as his production may not meet expectations. The remaining two receivers in this tier, Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp, are approaching the end of their peak dynasty value. While both have delivered elite production, if I were building a roster in a startup draft, Kupp would be the only one I would specifically target. There is a chance to acquire Kupp as your WR3 on a win-now team, and his style of play suggests a longer period of high performance compared to Adams, who carries more uncertainties. It's important to recognize that all these receivers are best suited for win-now roster constructions, with Metcalf being the exception, as he could retain his value for the next couple of seasons. When considering these veteran receivers, weighing the trade-offs between immediate production and long-term value as you build your dynasty team is essential.

Tyreek Hill ADP: 35.75 WR10

3-Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR

• 2022 - 347.20 FPTS WR2
• 2021 - 296.50 FPTS WR6
• 2020 - 333.90 FPTS WR2

Stefon Diggs ADP: 41.50 WR15

3-Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR

• 2022 - 321.20 FPTS WR4
• 2021 - 284.50 FPTS WR7
• 2020 - 328.60 FPTS WR3

DK Metcalf ADP: 39.75 WR13

3-Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR

• 2022 - 226.80 FPTS WR16
• 2021 - 244.30 FPTS WR14
• 2020 - 271.30 FPTS WR7

Davante Adams ADP: 51.00 WR17

3-Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR

• 2022 - 334.50 FPTS WR3
• 2021 - 349.30 FPTS WR2
• 2020 - 358.40 FPTS WR1

Cooper Kupp ADP: 41.00 WR14

3-Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR

• 2022 - 201.40 FPTS WR23
• 2021 - 439.50 FPTS WR1
• 2020 - 208.70 FPTS WR26

TIER 5

As we enter tier five, we enter the territory of WR2 options and the top rookies from the 2023 class. Within this range, there are three receivers who possess significant upside and have the potential to break into the top-12 rankings within the next two seasons: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jordan Addison, and Quentin Johnston. While DeVonta Smith also holds promise, his situation with AJ Brown ahead of him in a run-focused offense makes it challenging to envision him becoming a true WR1. Among these options, the player with the highest risk-reward potential is Jameson Williams. He is currently drafted well below his dynasty ranking and is a true boom-or-bust prospect. Williams possesses exceptional talent, but his limited on-field production has affected his overall value in dynasty formats. Investing in Williams involves a certain level of risk, but the payoff could be substantial. One player in this tier that I am particularly bullish on compared to consensus rankings is Brandon Aiyuk. Aiyuk is one of the most talented receivers on the San Francisco 49ers' roster, even surpassing Deebo Samuel in terms of potential. If the team decides to part ways with Samuel after this off-season, Aiyuk could prove to be the steal of 2023 dynasty drafts by assuming WR1 status as early as this season.

Jaxon Smith Njigba ADP: 46.25 WR16

DeVonta Smith ADP: 38.50 WR12

2-Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR

• 2022 - 254.60 FPTS WR9
• 2021 - 185.60 FPTS WR29

Chris Godwin ADP: 66.25 WR21

3-Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR

• 2022 - 222.80 FPTS WR19
• 2021 - 242.40 FPTS WR16
• 2020 - 191.00 FPTS WR31

Jordan Addison ADP: 58.00 WR20

Brandon Aiyuk ADP: 81.25 WR28

3-Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR

• 2022 - 227.80 FPTS WR15
• 2021 - 170.30 FPTS WR35
• 2020 - 184.50 FPTS WR35

Jameson Wiliams: 98.25 WR37

1-Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR

• 2022 - 15.10 FPTS WR155

Marquise Brown ADP: 86.25 WR31

3-Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR

• 2022 - 156.00 FPTS WR44
• 2021 - 226.30 FPTS WR22
• 2020 - 183.00 FPTS WR36

Quentin Johnston ADP: 95.50 WR36

TIER 6

The shift in fantasy managers' mindset towards prioritizing wide receivers in building their teams is justified when looking at the players in this tier. Each of these receivers can potentially deliver WR1 performances on any given week. While there may be uncertainties surrounding the quarterbacks throwing to them, there are ample target opportunities within their respective receiver corps. Within this group, two receivers stand out as exceptional dynasty values: DJ Moore and Diontae Johnson. Johnson is poised to see an improvement in his touchdown production this year, coupled with a top-15 target share. This combination positions him as a viable low-end WR1 option. As for Moore, he will finally have the opportunity to showcase his skills in an offense that emphasizes his strengths. With a projected target share of 26% or higher, Moore is expected to be the primary focus of the offense. If Justin Fields can make the anticipated leap as a passer, Moore may finally meet the expectations of fantasy managers and represents a value pick as a WR3 on your roster. When considering the receivers in this tier, it is important to recognize their potential for delivering consistent WR1 numbers and the value they bring to your dynasty team. D.J. Moore and Diontae Johnson, in particular, offer a combination of target share and scoring upside that makes them enticing options for fantasy managers.