Today, we're diving into my second-round Best Ball rankings.
The rise of season-long Best Ball has occurred rapidly, largely thanks to Underdog. They have tapped into the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) minds of us fantasy football sickos by offering tournaments with huge payouts. But instead of relying on one-game randomness, allowing us to project how the entire season will play out.
This format on multiple platforms, including Underdog, will continue to rise in popularity in 2024. With contests and tournaments already live and drafting for next season, keep an eye on Footballguys for in-depth best-ball analysis.
You can review my first-round rankings here.
2.01 RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta
Bijan Robinson is the best running back prospect since Saquon Barkley. He's as close as they come to a can't-miss prospect. In three seasons at Texas, Robinson amassed 3,410 rushing yards, 60 receptions, 805 receiving yards, and 41 total touchdowns. Weighing 215 pounds, Robinson has the size to be a workhorse and the receiving skills to be a dual-threat. We certainly saw that at Texas, and Robinson put his talent on display once again in the NFL as a rookie in 2023, turning 272 total touches into 1,463 total yards and 8 total touchdowns. Robinson caught 58 of 86 targets and ranked eighth in missed tackles forced (rushing + receiving) per game (4.1), fourth in explosive runs (10+ Yard Runs) (30), 12th in rush yards over expected per attempt (+0.39), and tenth in PFF Elusive Rating (78.6).
Still, despite all this, Robinson's rookie season was somewhat of a disappointment when factoring in expectations. With Arthur Smith out and Raheem Morris and Zac Robinson in, expect Robinson to soar to new heights in his second year thanks to his talent but also the coaching upgrade. Remember, Robinson will be in an offensive scheme that vaulted Kyren Williams to fantasy superstardom last season.
2.02 QB Josh Allen, Buffalo
Josh Allen will be just 28 years old and still in his prime next season. He has finished as the QB1 (23.1), QB3 (23.9), QB1 (23.7), and QB3 (25.4) in fantasy points per game over the past four seasons. He's simply a force of nature that can not be stopped. He's a massive human being with all the physical tools in the world. He has run for 3,611 yards and 53 touchdowns in his six-year career and scored 15 rushing touchdowns in 2023. Allen is a dual-threat difference-maker who ranked second in PFF's Big Time Throw Percentage (6%) and ninth in PFF's Big Time Throw Percentage under Pressure (7.1%) last season. A Big Time Throw is defined as "a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window." Allen's cannon for an arm allows him to defy the odds and make throws into tight windows and farther down the field that other quarterbacks simply can't make. He's a defense's nightmare, as they have to cover the entire field against his arm and legs at all times.
2.03 QB Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia
Philadelphia's offense is in flux as they've recently made an offensive coordinator change, moving on from Brian Johnson and bringing in Kellen Moore. But the case can be made this change is an upgrade. Jalen Hurts thrived even with Johnson last season, posting 22.9 fantasy points per game en route to a QB2 overall finish and just 0.2 fantasy points per game behind Josh Allen for the top spot. Hurts will be just 26 years old and in his athletic prime next season, and he's surrounded by elite talent in A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert. Like Allen, Hurts is a dual-threat fantasy football dream. Hurts has run for 2,503 yards and 41 touchdowns in his four-year career and has scored 10, 13, and 15 rushing touchdowns over the past three seasons. Hurts is a difference-maker at the position and is high in my second-round Best Ball rankings.
2.04 RB Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville
Travis Etienne Jr. has been an exciting player for years, dating back to his college days, where he accumulated 6,107 total yards, 102 receptions, and 78 total touchdowns in four seasons at Clemson. Despite missing his rookie year due to a season-ending injury, Etienne has been a strong player in the NFL as well. Through two healthy seasons, Etienne has racked up 2,925 total yards, 93 receptions, and 17 total touchdowns. In 2023, Etienne was an absolute workhorse, ranking sixth in the NFL in opportunities per game (19.9). He put his talent on display with those chances impressively, leading all running backs in missed tackles forced (rushing + receiving) per game (5.2). This should come as no surprise, as Etienne is one of the most athletic and fastest running backs in the league. 2023 third-round pick Tank Bigsby was a bust during his rookie season, keeping Etienne's future workhorse chances strong. Etienne has the benefit of continuity with head coach Doug Pederson and offensive coordinator Press Taylor returning, and the talented Trevor Lawrence will once again lead the offense.
2.05 RB James Cook, Buffalo
James Cook put on a show at the NFL Combine before the 2022 NFL Draft, running a 4.42 40-yard dash and a 124-inch broad jump. He put that exciting athleticism on display this past season, turning 291 total opportunities into 1,567 total yards, 44 receptions, and 6 total touchdowns. Cook ranked ninth in the entire NFL in total yards per game (94.7) while only ranking 20th in opportunities per game (17.1). He's a talented dual-threat who doesn't need to rank top ten in the league in touches to be a massive fantasy football difference-maker, especially paired with Josh Allen in one of the best offenses in football. In 2023, Cook ranked second in explosive runs (10+ Yard Runs) (33), ninth in NextGenStats' rush yards over expected per attempt (+0.45), eighth in NextGenStats' Rush Percent Over Expected AKA Success Rate (42.7), and eighth in yards per route run (1.45). Fantasy football is about betting on a combination of elite talent, young ascending talent, proven production, and players in great fantasy environments. Cook checks off most, if not all, the boxes.
2.06 RB De'Von Achane, Miami
Here is an excerpt from my De'Von Achane write-up before he was drafted in the third round by the Miami Dolphins last year:
Achane will be able to create his own luck in the league because he holds a very valuable trump card: speed. Achane ran a blazing 4.32 40-yard dash at the combine, which wasn't a surprise as Achane is also a track star. Per Pro Football Focus, as a sophomore on Texas A&M's track team, he ran a 10.14-second 100-meter dash, the tenth-fastest time in program history. That speed consistently shows up in Achane's film, as does toughness you wouldn't expect from a smaller back. Achane is a versatile dual-threat who caught 60 passes over his final two collegiate seasons. Look for Achane to see the field right away, as he should be part of a committee as a rookie.
Achane put up 997 total yards and 11 total touchdowns in just 11 games. He ranked tenth in the entire league in total yards per game (93.6). What we have here is a perfect marriage between one of the best offenses in football and one of the most exciting and athletic playmakers in the NFL. The Dolphins offense under Mike McDaniel and Tua Tagovailoa ranked third in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play), second in points per game (29.2), and first in yards per game (401.3) last season. The offense supported not only Achane but also Raheem Mostert. Mostert put up 1,187 total yards and 21 total touchdowns in 2023. Mostert still projects to be involved next season, but he'll be 32. It would be a mistake to project him to lead the backfield once again in 2024. Instead, projecting Achane to overtake Mostert in his second NFL season is more logical. That means there's even more meat on the bone for the electric Achane.
Now, Achane measured 5-foot-9 and only weighed 188 pounds at the combine. He missed six games as a rookie while dealing with multiple injuries. The "his body can't hold up" concerns aren't going away anytime soon, but when Achane is on the field, his elite playmaking ability is such a massive difference-maker in best ball, especially when all the money is won at the end of the season in a tournament-like Weeks 15-17. There are positives and negatives that must be weighed with almost all players. In this case, the upside should be factored in much more than the chances of Achane missing games. This is the NFL, and all players are at risk of getting injured. Achane belongs in my second-round Best Ball rankings.
2.07 WR Garrett Wilson, NY Jets
Whether it's Davante Adams being linked back to Aaron Rodgers or Breece Hall and others openly recruiting Tee Higgins, rumors and speculation are swirling regarding the New York Jets bringing in another pass-catcher to play alongside Garrett Wilson. It will be a long offseason, and if this does occur, we'll adjust the ranks. But for now, a large part of why these rumors have surfaced is because everyone realizes Wilson is the clear-cut WR1 with little help. That might not be great for the Jets and Aaron Rodgers upon his attempted return from a torn Achilles, but it's fantastic for Wilson and his elite projectable volume. Wilson ranked second in target share (30%) and sixth in targets per game (10.2), and he saw 73 more targets than any other teammate in 2023. Wilson will be just 24 years old next season and has caught 178 passes for 2,145 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns through his first two seasons while dealing with bottom-of-the-barrel quarterback play. If Rodgers returns to just 50% of his former 2020 and 2021 back-to-back league MVP self, Wilson is in for a major quarterback upgrade and looks primed to take a leap in year three.
2.08 WR DJ Moore, Chicago
DJ Moore will be just 27 years old next season and is a certified baller. He's topped 1,100+ receiving yards in four of six seasons and is coming off by far his best season last year, catching 96 passes for 1,364 yards and 8 touchdowns. Like Garrett Wilson, Moore also dominates his team in targets without a second option that even comes close to his talent level. Moore ranked fifth in target share (29%) and saw 46 more targets than any other teammate and 75 more targets than any other Bears wide receiver in 2023. And here's the thing: he's really good. Moore ranked 14th in yards per route run (2.31), 17th in yards after catch per reception (5.7), 18th in NextGenStats yards after catch above expectation (+1.6), second in 20+ yard receptions (16), and third in 20+ yard receiving touchdowns (5) last season. The only elephant in the room that needs to be addressed is that all signs point to Moore playing with a new rookie quarterback in 2024. That's a bit of a bummer because Fields and Moore proved they have chemistry on the field, and Fields' big arm correlated well with Moore's athleticism, speed, and downfield playmaking ability. But the Bears are moving on from Fields for good reasons, as he has yet to prove he can be a consistently capable pocket passer. There's a realistic world where Moore continues to dominate targets in Chicago while also receiving improved quarterback play.
2.09 WR Deebo Samuel, San Francisco
Deebo Samuel is a unicorn operating in what is arguably the league's best offense. Last season's 49ers offense ranked first in EPA/Play, first in Dropback EPA, first in Rush EPA, third in points per game (28.9), and second in yards per game (398.4). Within that elite offensive environment, Samuel showcases his elite talent both in the receiving game and on the ground. Samuel finished 2023 with 60 receptions, 892 receiving yards, 7 receiving touchdowns, 225 rushing yards, and 5 rushing touchdowns. And let's not forget Samuel's 2021 season, where he recently put a year on his resume with 77 catches, 1,405 receiving yards, 6 receiving touchdowns, 365 rushing yards, and 8 rushing touchdowns. We want to know what we're getting and where the upside case comes from with our early-round picks. With Samuel, it's easy. He has led the NFL in yards after the catch per reception in each of the past four seasons and led the league in NextGenStats' yards after catch above expectation in three of the past four years. Samuel is historically good with the ball in his hands, which is largely why Kyle Shanahan and the coaching staff manufacture more touches for him in the running game. Touchdowns are vital in fantasy football, especially on half-point PPR sites like Underdog. Samuel's dual-threat role puts him near the top of the projected total touchdown list for wide receivers, making him an immensely valuable asset.
2.10 WR Nico Collins, Houston
C.J. Stroud was a rookie revelation in 2023. He ranked fourth in passing yards per game (274.6) and 13th in pass touchdowns per game (1.5) in the regular season and threw for 274 yards and 3 touchdowns in his first playoff game in a route of the Browns. Stroud is a locked-in top-ten quarterback moving forward, and his top two talented receivers, Nico Collins and Tank Dell, will continue to benefit. Dell will be highlighted in a moment, but let's highlight his teammate for now. Collins entered the NFL as an exciting prospect with elite size, standing 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds, and tested out of this world, running a 4.43 40-yard dash, posting a 37 1/2-inch vertical jump, and logging a 10-foot-5 broad jump. Per Kent Lee Platte of Relative Athletic Scores, Collins' athletic profile "Ranked 61 out of 2,467 wide receivers from 1987 to 2021." Simply put, Collins is an athletic freak, a trump card that can help a player succeed in the NFL. However, we've seen many athletes fail to translate their abilities onto the football field. What about Collins?
After flashing in his first two seasons with poor quarterback play, Collins reached star status in his third season in 2023, paired with a legit quarterback. Collins caught 80 passes for 1,297 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns on the year, and in 13 games where he played on 50+% of the offensive snaps, he averaged 7.8 targets, 5.8 receptions, 97.4 receiving yards, and scored 7 touchdowns. 97.4 receiving yards per game would've ranked fourth-best in the entire NFL. Diving deeper, it appears Collins is on the verge of superstar status and becoming more of a household name. Last season, Collins ranked second in yards per route run (3.10), fifth in yards after catch per reception (6.9), sixth in NextGenStats' yards after catch above expectation (+2.5), fifth in targets per route run (27%), seventh in 20+ yard receptions (13), and sixth in receiving yards off of 20+ yard receptions (466). Fantasy football is about betting on a combination of elite talent, young ascending talent, proven production, and players in great fantasy environments. Collins, who will only be 25 years old next season, checks all the boxes paired with Stroud.
2.11 WR Rashee Rice, Kansas City
Patrick Mahomes II has done it again. He's now won three Super Bowls in six seasons, and the Chiefs just went back-to-back. Mahomes is already the best player in NFL history. Meanwhile, Travis Kelce has made a strong argument for himself as the best tight end in league history, but looking forward, Kelce will turn 35 about a month into the 2024 season. There is an immense opportunity for pass catchers to step up and be paired with Mahomes. Rashee Rice has already done that, making him a prime candidate to explode next season. First, let's take a step back. Here is what I had to say about Rice before his rookie season:
Rice is 6-foot-1 and 204 pounds, and he posted an impressive 41-inch vertical and a 128-inch broad at the combine. He finished his four-year SMU career with 233 receptions for 3,111 yards and 25 touchdowns. Notably, he improved every season, going from 25-403-1 to 48-683-5 to 64-670-9 to 96-1355-10. He ranked tenth out of 1,046 receivers in PFF receiving grade last season and shows athleticism, quickness, toughness, and good body control in the air while going for jump balls. And reportedly, he was selected by the Chiefs after Patrick Mahomes II II trained with him this offseason and then advocated for him.
Rice was a strong prospect, so his rookie season should not in any way be looked at as a flash in the pan. He finished the 2023 regular season with 79 receptions for 938 yards and 7 touchdowns despite not earning a near-full-time role until the second half of the year. Rice showed what his weekly upside looks like in his first-ever playoff game, catching 8 of 12 targets for 130 yards and 1 touchdown against the Dolphins. And that upside projects to continue as Rice ranked tenth in yards per route run (2.39), second in yards after catch per reception (8.3), 11th in yards after catch above expectation (+1.9), and 15th in targets per route run (24%). Surprised by Rice's two rush attempts in the Super Bowl? Don't be. Rice is the closest thing to Deebo Samuel as there is today and just makes it into my second-round Best Ball rankings.
2.12 Tank Dell, Houston
Like Nico Collins, Tank Dell also benefits from playing with C.J. Stroud, who is already a locked-in top-ten quarterback. Like Rashee Rice, Dell's strong rookie season should not in any way be looked at as a flash in the pan. He was an exciting prospect. Let's review what I wrote shortly after he was drafted in the third round:
Nathaniel Dell posted 90-1,329-12 as a junior and 109-1398-17 as a senior in 2022. He also had punt- and kick-return success at Houston, returning a punt for a touchdown just last season. Shocker: Here's another small receiver in this class, Dell, who stands 5-foot-8 and weighs just 165 pounds. But he's reminiscent of DeSean Jackson, who weighed just 175 pounds. Dell is quick and fast, which allows him to get open and produce impressive YAC consistently. He displayed consistent ball-tracking ability, which helps explain why Houston went his way a ton in the end zone and inside the five-yard line. He ranked 13th out of 1,046 receivers in PFF receiving grade last season. And new franchise quarterback C.J. Stroud reportedly advocated for the Texans to select Dell after being impressed with his game at the combine.
Dell hit the ground running, catching 47 passes for 709 yards and 7 touchdowns in just 11 games before suffering a season-ending fractured fibula. Looking deeper, Dell only played on over 50% of the offensive snaps in eight contests. In those games, he averaged 8.4 targets, 5,.1 receptions, 77.3 receiving yards, and caught all 7 of his touchdowns. That 8.4 target average would've ranked 17th, and the 77.3 receiving yard average ranked 14th over the full NFL season. There is reason for concern regarding his recovery, but there's enough within his collegiate and rookie profiles to remain bullish. Dell ranked 16th in yards per route run (2.22) and 19th in targets per route run (23%) in 2023. There is no clear-cut WR1 on the Texans. Rather, there are two young and solid receivers that defenses have to account for at all times. What fits with Collins also applies to Dell: fantasy football is about betting on a combination of elite talent, young ascending talent, proven production, and players in great fantasy environments. Dell, who won't turn 25 years old until the end of October, checks all the boxes paired with Stroud.
