Before looking ahead to the 2024 season, it's important to take a moment to focus on the fantasy football lessons learned in the 2023 campaign. Let's look at fantasy football running backs.
Related: See What We Learned in 2023: Fantasy Football Quarterbacks
Targeting the cheapest fantasy football running backs in line to lead their team in touches was an outstanding strategy.
If you simply made a classic Zero RB/Do the Opposite/Upside Down list of the running backs projected to lead their backfields and stuck to that list in your drafts, you did well at running back in 2023. That list likely would have included most or all of these names: James Conner, James Cook, Raheem Mostert or De'Von Achane, Alexander Mattison, Rachaad White, Isiah Pacheco, Cam Akers, Brian Robinson, Khalil Herbert, Javonte Williams, Miles Sanders, and J.K. Dobbins.
There were a few busts - namely Alexander Mattison and Cam Akers, who ironically ended up in the same backfield because they both struggled from the get-go. Miles Sanders was also a bust and eventually lost his job to Chuba Hubbard after a decent first three weeks. J.K. Dobbins went down in Week 1, but Gus Edwards' production indicates that a healthy Dobbins would have been a hit. Williams and Herbert only gave us a handful of ceiling games, but the QB/WR/TE drafted around them didn't do any better in most cases.
The rest of the names were either successes or smashing successes. James Conner missed four games with an injury and started slow after Kyler Murray came back, but he was one of the hottest backs in the fantasy playoffs and helped a lot of people win their league. Cook was up and down but good enough to finish in the Top 15 in PPR leagues, and that's with Josh Allen bogarting the goal-line touchdowns. Mostert had huge spike weeks with 21 total touchdowns, and he stayed healthy for the first 16 weeks. Achane came into the season hurt and missed Week 1, only to put up the biggest game of the 2024 season (and most seasons) on the board in Week 3. He was a strong RB1 for two weeks but got hurt and was inconsistent with a couple of ceiling games after that. White had a slow start but leveled off as a solid PPR RB1. Pacheco was also a solid RB1 and won leagues with a huge Week 17. Brian Robinson Jr was only about a half-point below Bijan Robinson in PPR leagues and contributed enough spike weeks to justify playing him as an RB2/Flex.
What We'll Do in 2024: Many of the hits from 2023 will move up in drafts, and we have a lot of player movement ahead. But there will necessarily be a new crop of backs that are the least expensive but still expected to lead their backfield in touches. Whether we are underwhelmed by the player or offense or thrown off by uncertainty, this group will be undervalued again because volume is still the name of the game at running back.
Christian McCaffrey is still the king, with no clear heir.
Christian McCaffrey was traded to one of the best offenses in the league in 2022, but his backup, Elijah Mitchell, was used more like a committee back, so McCaffrey wasn't going #1 overall across drafts. He should have. McCaffrey lapped the field at running back, with over 2000 total yards, 21 total touchdowns, and 72 receptions. He also didn't miss a game for the second straight year. The only fantasy football running back within shouting distance was Kyren Williams, more than three points behind in PPR leagues on a points-per-game basis. He missed four games. The #3 back in PPR leagues on a points-per-game basis was Alvin Kamara, who was almost seven points per game behind McCaffrey. He missed three games due to a suspension.
What We'll Do in 2024: McCaffrey isn't showing any signs of slowing down and should be the #1 pick in 1QB leagues, and there's an argument for him to go #1 in Superflex leagues. In dynasty leagues, it's a good time to consider selling if you aren't projected to be in the top half of your league, and maybe no matter what your projection is with McCaffrey entering his age 28 season.
Talking ourselves into a second-tier RB1 was a bad idea.
If you didn't take McCaffrey but still took a fantasy football running back in the top 15, you probably regretted your pick. Austin Ekeler got hurt early and looked like he was still going to produce well after a slow return from injury, but he never seemed to get completely healthy and was a lineup liability in the fantasy playoffs. Tony Pollard got all the work we had hoped for and the Cowboys offense was good, but he ran lukewarm and cold and was a lineup liability in the fantasy playoffs. Saquon Barkley was actually a low RB1 in PPR leagues despite offense and quarterback problems for the Giants, and he only missed two games. On the other hand, Barkley maddeningly alternated terrible and strong fantasy weeks and finished on a low note. We covered the Bijan Robinson experience above, and let's not revisit Nick Chubb's 2023 for too long.
What We'll Do in 2024: The corresponding group to this tier in 2024 will likely include Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson (again), Jahmyr Gibbs, Kyren Williams, and Jonathan Taylor, and they probably won't come at much of a discount from what the tier cost in 2023. It's reasonable to pass on them for wide receiver, but Hall, Gibbs, and Williams will be worth it if they merely continue what they were doing in the second half of 2023. Robinson could be a huge hit if Arthur Smith was the problem (he probably was), and Taylor was the #1 overall pick just two years ago. He is only 25.
Third-tier RB1s were much better investments than second-tier RB1s.
You might have decided to pass on the tier of landmines in the Top 15 to target a running back in the third round. Along with Gibbs, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Travis Etienne Jr., Joe Mixon, and Najee Harris were the names most commonly going in the third round among running backs. Etienne was the biggest hit, with a four-week, seven-touchdown midseason spree and good enough peaks (including Week 17) to justify the valleys. Mixon was also a hit, producing at a low RB1 clip over the course of the season (and a strong RB1 once Joe Burrow was healthy-ish and with Jake Browning) in a big bounceback year for the veteran. Harris was the only bust with only one stretch of fantasy utility and a surprise strong Week 17. Henry and Jacobs were modest successes, posting boom/bust RB2 numbers. Jacobs wasn't available from Weeks 15-17, and Henry was a dud in two of the three weeks.
What We'll Do in 2024: This tier of fantasy football running backs is looking thin right now, with Etienne making a return and only Isiah Pacheco going in the third round of early drafts. Once player movement is over, we'll likely see more members of this tier. As it stands now, Etienne and Pacheco are reasonable picks as RB1s in the third, but they are far from slam dunks.
Breece Hall is an outlier.
Fantasy drafters were worried about Hall in year N+1 coming off an ACL tear, and the Jets were too - enough to give Dalvin Cook almost six million guaranteed before the season, pushing Hall down fantasy draft boards. Hall finished as a solid PPR RB1, getting stronger as the season went on and leaving Cook in his wake. We still haven't seen Hall's best football, and that's exciting if you have Hall, scary if you don't.
What We'll Do in 2024: Hall will cost a first-round pick if you want him, but he could easily be the #1 overall pick in 2025 if the Jets' offense is merely mediocre.
The classic running back dead zone gave us a playoff hero, but otherwise didn't change many fantasy team destinies.
Breece Hall coming back from an ACL injury and being joined by Dalvin Cook pushed him out of the third round and into the classic "dead zone" (fourth through sixth round) range, and he was the most valuable PPR running back from Weeks 14-17. The "dead zone" is made up of backs that are clearly the best talent on their roster but with more question marks in their profile than the backs we feel confident enough in to take in the first three rounds. Ken Walker III, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Aaron Jones usually went around the fourth round. All had their seasons blemished by injuries to some extent and subject to inconsistency. Dameon Pierce was an unmitigated bust after a strong preseason and camp. Hopefully, drafting him at least led teams to focus on acquiring Devin Singletary when Pierce was sputtering.
What We'll Do in 2024: There's a lot of time for things to change, but Rachaad White, James Cook, and Ken Walker are leading the "dead zone" backs tier in early drafts, and all look like worthy picks still on the upslope side of their career arcs entering year three.
It was a good year for late-round/waiver-wire running backs.
Kyren Williams was the clear #2 overall fantasy football running back, worth a first-round pick even though he missed four games in the middle of the season. He was either drafted late or not drafted at all, but he scored twice and pulled ahead of Cam Akers in the opener. If you added him or "overpaid" for him in a trade after that performance, you won big. Jerome Ford was also as valuable as you could hope for after Nick Chubb went down in Week 2, putting up high-floor RB2/Flex numbers with his best game of the year in Week 17. He did this even though Kareem Hunt was signed the week after Chubb went down, which was seen as a bad development for him (Hunt did score nine times on the ground, making us wonder what could have been for Ford or what could be in the future). Zack Moss, Gus Edwards, Zamir White, and Ezekiel Elliott had stretches of usefulness when the starter ahead of them was out, and Chuba Hubbard and Devin Singletary joined Williams in the backup group that showed they deserved to be the starter. This trend only accentuated the advantage generally given to teams that didn't invest big at running back early in drafts.
What We'll Do in 2024: We won't be afraid to spend big on Week 1 waiver wire wonders or backups who become rest-of-season starters because of injury.
There were a few impactful rookie backs, but we'll think twice before taking a rookie in the first round again.
Bijan Robinson was considered one of the best running back prospects to come down the pike in years, and going #8 overall to a run-heavy offense pushed him into the first round of fantasy drafts. Maybe it's an Arthur Smith problem - which won't be part of Robinson's 2024 fantasy equation - but Robinson was inconsistent and only a boom/bust RB2. Jahmyr Gibbs was in David Montgomery's shadow early in the season and missed two games with an injury, but he came back strong and was RB3 in PPR leagues from Week 7 on, justifying his 3rd/4th round price tag. Most of the speculative bench picks provided very little. Zach Charbonnet was only a low-ceiling RB2 when Ken Walker III missed two games and otherwise did little of note. Tank Bigsby was one of the worst running backs in the NFL. Roschon Johnson was the third most valuable back on the Bears roster. Kendre Miller couldn't stay healthy and got 37 touches on the season. A few rookies who went undrafted in fantasy leagues were hot waiver-wire names, but Chase Brown, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Keaton Mitchell didn't live up to their breakthrough games.
What We'll Do in 2024: It was overall an underwhelming year for rookie running backs in 2023, but the 2024 rookie class is underwhelming from a draft perspective, so that lack of early picks coming off of a down year for rookie backs may make the top picks from this class good values in redraft leagues.
Alvin Kamara remains a strong fantasy football running back… in PPR leagues.
Kamara didn't have to survive challenges from Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller to realize value in fantasy leagues because neither ever legitimately looked like a challenger. Kamara wasn't all that efficient running the ball, and the explosive plays were few and far between. But Derek Carr loved to check down to him, pushing Kamara's PPR numbers to solid RB1 levels before he faded in the fantasy playoffs.
What We'll Do in 2024: If Kamara is still a Saint - they have to do some major cap gymnastics this offseason - he'll be worth a look in the 5th round or later.
Good running games can produce two RB1s.
The Dolphins and Lions each placed two running backs in the PPR Top 12 on a points-per-game basis. There were some missed games, but David Montgomery and Raheem Mostert actually performed better when Jahmyr Gibbs and De'Von Achane were active, and Jahmyr Gibbs was still elite fantasy football running back when David Montgomery stayed healthy from Week 10 on.
What We'll Do in 2024: We won't doubt that a good backfield can make two backs every-week plays and strong values in fantasy drafts. We won't be able to target backfields other than Detroit and Miami in this category until after player movement is over, but it already looks like the #2 back from both of these backfields will be a value in 2024 drafts.
Check out The Audible to hear Sigmund Bloom's podcast and read all of his articles here.
