Slate Overview
The Signal is Clearer, And The Pricing is Softer
The first two weeks of the season have given our opponents just enough information to make themselves dangerous if they're not careful. While two weeks of data have given us a clearer picture of player usage and volume, we still can't declare much about teams and players with certainty. Usage patterns begin to stabilize after Week 3, but until then, tournament ownership will still be misled by small sample variance.
The first place we should always look to begin separating signal from noise is the Las Vegas sports books. Setting accurate betting lines is crucial for them to manage risk, maintain profitability, and encourage continuous betting activity. Unfortunately, the betting markets point to a slate without clarity. Only Dallas at Chicago has an implied total above 45.5 points, leaving the rest of the games bunched together. Outside of the Cowboys at Bears game, tournament ownership will concentrate around players coming off strong back-to-back games to open the season, even if those results may not have the best odds to continue.
Injuries add another unique layer to this slate. Five second-string quarterbacks will start this week. The severity of Aaron Jones Sr.’s hamstring injury wasn't known until after DraftKings released Week 3 pricing. And Zach Charbonnet was a surprise late-week scratch, creating several potentially chalky value plays. The resulting soft pricing means finding players who provide salary relief is no longer an edge. The best way to attack these slates is through game theory. Anticipate how most entrants will spend their extra cap space, then build lineups that win when those common paths fail.
Top Game Environments
DFS is less about picking players in isolation and more about targeting the games where fantasy scoring can snowball. High totals, fast pace, and exploitable defenses all create environments where multiple players can go off together. Identifying these spots is the foundation for building winning GPP lineups.
Games in bold are lower-total games with the potential for higher than expected scoring. Stacking these games at higher ownership than the field will add leverage to your lineups if they go over their implied totals.
- Cowboys @ Bears (-1.5) - O/U 49.5
- Broncos @ Chargers (-2.5) - O/U 45.5
- Eagles (-3.5) @ Rams - O/U 44.5
- Falcons (-6) @ Panthers - O/U 43.5
Identifying Common Roster Construction
Understanding what your opponents are most likely to do is just as important as spotting the best plays. Common roster builds form naturally when popular players are combined into a lineup. Recognizing the "chalky" construction helps us anticipate what the majority of rosters we're up against will look like, and allows us to decide the best ways to build differently for leverage without sacrificing ceiling.
QB: The field just watched Mac Jones deliver a 5.7x return on his $4,000 salary in a soft matchup, and they’ll chase that same formula with injury fill-ins Carson Wentz or Marcus Mariota available for the minimum quarterback salary. With Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen off the main slate, most quarterback spending will stop at Dak Prescott ($5,900) in the week’s only implied shootout. Caleb Williams ($5,600) and Drake Maye ($5,300) also come at low prices in perceived favorable spots, strengthening the crowd's conviction to avoid paying up.
RB: Jordan Mason ($5,400) is the closest thing to a "free square" we've had in DFS this season. Aaron Jones Sr.'s hamstring injury locks him into a bell cow role against a Bengals' rush defense that struggled to contain Jacksonville's backfield a week ago. Charbonnet's toe injury clears the way for Ken Walker III ($5,800) to join Mason in common builds. Walker is coming off an outstanding Week 2 performance, facing a friendly matchup against the Saints, and remains priced like a committee back. With all the savings available at quarterback and both running back slots, we'll see plenty of three-running back lineups with either Christian McCaffrey (still underpriced at $8,200) or Bijan Robinson ($7,900 against Carolina's notoriously lousy rush defense) in the flex.
WR: Rome Odunze's $5,300 salary is up $500 from last week, but not nearly enough to reflect his new role as the target-hog in Ben Johnson's offense. He'll be close to an auto-click for most entrants, especially with the crowd generally piling on Bears and Cowboys players. We should expect heavy spending in the second wide receiver slot. CeeDee Lamb ($8,000) will be popular, especially in Prescott lineups. From there, look for moderate spending at WR3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($6,500), Davante Adams ($6,200), Jakobi Meyers ($5,600), and Keenan Allen ($4,700) are each priced well below their season-to-date target volume and expected fantasy production.
TE: Tyler Warren ($4,400) is a fun rookie who operates the centerpiece of the Colts' revived passing game. The toe injury that kept him out of Wednesday's practice seems minor and won't do much to deter the crowd. There is also plenty of value on the slate for those who want to spend at tight end to get up to Trey McBride ($5,700), who continues to rack up receptions and yardage with consistency rarely seen from tight ends.
Flipping the Common Build: Jalen Hurts ($6,800) and Brock Bowers ($6,000) stand out as building blocks if you want to allocate salary differently than the field. Without Allen, Jackson, and Jayden Daniels on the slate, Hurts has the clearest path to scoring enough fantasy points to negate the points-per-dollar advantage provided by the cheap quarterbacks. Entrants looking to spend up at tight end will click Trey McBride for $300 less than Bowers after the Raiders' nightmarish offensive performance on national television Monday night. Like Hurts, Bowers is capable of lapping the field at tight end so thoroughly that you won't be able to win without him.
Core Targets
Quarterback
Mac Jones ($5,000) – Jones was a GPP winner at $4,000 last week and is poised to repeat at $5,000. His 279-3-0 line against the Saints (22.76 DK points) wasn’t just about facing a terrible defense — he looked confident, made difficult throws, and showed impressive command of Kyle Shanahan’s offense. Now he draws an Arizona defense in crisis. The Cardinals already lost cornerbacks Sean Murphy-Bunting and Starling Thomas V for the season, then watched all three of their starting corners (Garrett Williams, Will Johnson, and Max Melton) leave Week 2 with injuries. Williams is on IR, Johnson is not expected to play, and Melton will probably tough it out next to a bunch of converted safeties, rookies, and street free agents. Jones thrived last week thanks to clean pockets, and Arizona lacks the pass rush to keep him from attacking their depleted secondary. The 300-yard bonus and multiple touchdowns are firmly in play. Instead of looking for this week's Jones, just play last week's again.