In my younger years, I tutored the GMAT to make a little extra money. One of the math topics that comes up on the test is combinatorics, especially permutations and combinations. For reasons I’ll get into below, the idea of calculating how many different combinations you can build from a limited pool of players was on my mind this week when I started hand-building lineups.
One thing that jumped out was how often my favorite builds included two expensive players priced at or above $9,000 at running back or wide receiver, paired with four cheaper players in the $5,600 to $7,300 range. Within each group, the pricing was surprisingly tight. That led me to wonder: how many different ways can I structure my running back–wide receiver–flex spots from only those options?
Almost all of my favorite lineups included two of the following seven players priced $9,000 or above:
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba
• Jonathan Taylor
• James Cook
• Puka Nacua
• De'Von Achane
• Ja'Marr Chase
• Bijan Robinson
There are 21 different two-player combinations from that group. It sounds like a lot, but in a contest with over 100,000 entries, you’re going to see plenty of lineups built around similar pairings of these expensive players. Does that mean you must pivot away from this structure? Not necessarily. One of my favorite things about the Week 14 slate is that you can play two elite options, add four moderately priced players, and still land on a lineup that isn’t likely to be duplicated because there are so many viable mid-tier choices.
Here are some of the mid-range players firmly in the mix this week:
• Chase Brown (7300)
• Emeka Egbuka (7300)
• Tee Higgins (7100)
• Zay Flowers (6900)
• Ashton Jeanty (6800)
• Jaylen Waddle (6700)
• Ken Walker III (6600)
• RJ Harvey (6500)
• Courtland Sutton (6300)
• Christian Watson (6200)
• Brian Thomas Jr.. (6200)
• Jakobi Meyers (6100)
• Chris Godwin Jr. (6100)
• Alec Pierce (6000)
• Aaron Jones Sr. (6000)
• Romeo Doubs (5800)
• DJ Moore (5600)
• Michael Wilson (5700)
That’s 18 names without even scraping the bottom of the pool. You can make a case for others in this same price range, but these 18 alone create more than 3,600 four-player combinations. Multiply that by the 21 possible two-player combinations above, and you already have more than 60,000 different six-player RB/WR/FLEX cores before even considering quarterback, tight end, or defense.
I hope you don’t mind the digression into some nerdy math. Laying it out this way helps me remember that builds which feel too chalky at first glance may actually be plenty unique. These builds work because the mid-range is loaded with upside, and most of these players also have solid floors. Many of the wide receivers are projected to see six or more targets. Many of the running backs have a real chance at 20 or more touches. Add in the obvious 30-point ceilings from the $9,000-plus group, and it’s easy to envision a path toward a GPP-winning lineup with a core build featuring a pair of elite options and four from the middle tier.
We’ll start by looking at the best team-level and positional matchups, especially the backfields and passing games that offer the most straightforward path to tournament-winning scores. Then we’ll go position by position, highlighting the top options. Each section will include Good Chalk, which covers the strong plays worth using even at high ownership, and Low-Owned Targets, which highlight players who can help separate your lineup from the field.
Positional Defense and Matchups Overview
My favorite way to identify potential value is by comparing each team's implied total from oddsmakers to its season scoring average. The tables below show the most favorable matchups, where teams are projected to score above their 2025 average, and the toughest matchups, where teams are expected to score below their 2025 average.
It also helps to combine this number with my adjusted defense-versus-position numbers. To measure this, I look at how each defense performs relative to its opponents' typical production using FanDuel scoring. For example, if the Rams average 20 FanDuel QB points per game but the Seahawks allow the Rams to score 25, that defense would be +5 points allowed above expectation for that week. By averaging those weekly differentials, we can see how much more or less each defense allows compared to its opponents' norms. Those positional defense metrics are reflected in the tables below.