In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll fade some players that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at nine players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In), four that don't hit quite right (the Out), and an Outlier of the Week.
First, let me stress: If any of my choices make you uneasy, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In and Out Accountability
This is where we review my previous week's results. With the NFL's variance battling me every step of the way, my pursuit of the elusive .500 mark has been challenging. Week 9 wasn't too bad, but the Week 10 struggle was real. Week 11, however, was more like it. Let's review:
- I was in on Packers QB Jordan Love, who was projected for a QB20 finish against the Giants. I felt the matchup would allow him to surpass that spot easily. Love finished as QB9. A solid hit. ✅
- I was out on Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield, who faced a much more daunting matchup against the Bills. His QB14 projection reflected the challenge, but I pushed the envelope, predicting Mayfield would struggle to hit that number. He finished as QB7. A miss. ❌
- I was in on Texans RB Woody Marks, whose increasing workload and favorable matchup made his RB21 projection look low to me. I predicted a finish inside the top 20 against a generous Titans defense. Marks finished as RB42. A miss. ❌
- I was out on Eagles RB Saquon Barkley, whose 2025 output has fallen short of draft-day expectations. Going up against a stingy Detroit run defense, Barkley was projected to finish as RB13. I said Sunday would be a microcosm of his season, and predicted he would fall short of that. He was RB27. A hit. ✅
- I was in on Lions WR Jameson Williams, who had a tough matchup against the Eagles. I was banking on an increasing role with Dan Campbell taking over as playcaller to carry him beyond his WR24 projection. He finished as WR8. A hit. ✅
- I was out on Commanders WR Deebo Samuel Sr., who had struggled to deliver over the past four games. I expected the struggle to continue in a tough matchup against the Dolphins in Madrid. Samuel was projected to finish as WR20. I said he'd fall outside WR2 territory. Samuel finished as WR4. A massive miss. ❌
- I was in on Bengals TE Noah Fant in a favorable passing matchup against a Steelers defense he fared well against in Week 7. He was projected to finish as TE18. I said he'd exceed that. Fant was TE13. A hit. ✅
- I was out on Browns TE Harold Fannin Jr. in a tough matchup against an increasingly effective Ravens defense. Fant was projected to finish the week as TE6. I said he'd fall outside the top 10. He did. Fannin finished the week as TE30. Another hit. ✅
- As for my Outlier of the Week, Cardinals WR Michael Wilson was my choice, and yes, I'm feeling pretty good about it. With Marvin Harrison Jr. out due to an appendectomy, Jacoby Brissett completed 47 passes (more on that below). Volume is our friend. Wilson was projected to finish as WR42. I predicted Wilson would finish inside WR3 territory. He finished the week as WR1 overall with 33.5 points. That's a hit. ✅
Yes, this is my best week of the season. I would love to take all the credit myself, but I did get some help from the Lions defense, Campbell, the Steelers' pass defense, and Brissett.
Here's where we stand after 11 weeks:
Week 11: 6 hits; 3 misses.
Season: 47 hits; 52 misses.
The goal here, whether it's realistic or not, is to hit .500 on my predictions. After falling back a bit this week, I'm batting .474. Let's try to carry this momentum into Week 12.
One more time: I'm taking chances and painting outside the lines here. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
Quarterback
In: Jacoby Brissett, Arizona vs. Jacksonville
If Brissett wasn't on your radar heading into Week 11, he is now.
The veteran signal caller started his fifth straight game for an injured Kyler Murray and completed 47 of 57 passes for 452 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions in last Sunday's 41-22 loss to the 49ers.
A large majority of those passing totals came with the game out of reach, but the record-setting day was eye-opening.
Brissett's 47 completions are a new single-game NFL record. He is the first player ever to attempt 50-plus passes with an 80-plus completion percentage.
Also, Brissett probably should have already been on your radar.
Since moving into the starting role in Week 6, Brissett has been QB5 overall. His 22.1 points per game rank third among all fantasy quarterbacks over that span.
He's been a fantasy QB1 all five games he's started. Brissett has only finished outside the top 10 once, and that was a QB11 finish.
He has thrown multiple passing TDs and topped 19 fantasy points in every start.
Helping our cause, the Cardinals don't have an effective rushing attack and are often playing from behind.
This week, Brissett goes up against a Jaguars defense that's allowed five quarterbacks to beat them for at least 20 points since Week 5. They've allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game and the fourth-most touchdown passes on the season.
And while they got insane pressure on Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert last week, that hasn't been the norm for the Jags (and may have had more to do with Los Angeles' offensive line than anything).
Bottom line: Brissett's Footballguys projection calls for a QB12 finish with 18.17 fantasy points. I'm expecting another finish inside the top 10.
Out: Daniel Jones, Indianapolis @ Kansas City
The Colts head into Kansas City with an AFC South-leading 8-2 record. They lead the NFL in points scored this year. In fact, their 321 points through 10 games are 10 more than the second-highest scoring team, the Bills, who have 311 in 11 games.
Much of their offensive success has come from Jonathan Taylor and a strong rushing attack, but Jones has been a breakout star in his first season with the Colts.
The former Giant has been a strong fantasy play. Jones is QB7 on the season, averaging 19.7 points per game.
But the two games heading into the bye weren't great.
Jones was QB16 in a Week 9 loss to the Steelers. He was QB14 in a win over Atlanta in Berlin in Week 10.
He's thrown just one touchdown in each of those games, and turnovers -- a big problem during his time with the Giants -- suddenly became an issue.
As The Athletic noted, in his first eight games as a Colt, Jones threw only three interceptions and fumbled twice (Taylor dropped a toss, which was credited as Jones' fumble, though it wasn't his fault). But Jones has been intercepted four times and fumbled six times, losing three, in the last two games.
That's seven turnovers in the last eight quarters, though it's also worth noting that Jones has been under siege. He's been sacked 12 times in his previous two starts compared to nine through the first eight games.
This week, he takes on a Chiefs defense that's been imposing. As NFL Network's Michael F. Florio notes, Kansas City is giving up fewer than 200 passing yards per game, and they are tied for the fewest passing TDs allowed. Since Week 7, Josh Allen is the only QB to top 15 fantasy points against Kansas City.
Footballguys staffer Devin Knotts summed it up nicely in his Week 12 Passing Matchups: "The Colts' offense has slid situationally for a few weeks, and [Kansas City's defense] is adept at exploiting that. They'll be more than prepared for Jones' mistake-prone ways."
Bottom line: Jones' Footballguys projection calls for a QB8 finish with 19.24 points. I say he falls outside the top 10 this week.