Top 5 Passing Matchups
Houston at Baltimore
Few passing games have been down as bad as Houston's over the past year plus, but their Week 4 drubbing of the Titans might be the spark they needed. C.J. Stroud completed 22 of 28 and, for the first time since late 2024, looked fully in command. It was his first passer rating north of 100.0 since Week 15 last season and a reminder that he can uncork a perfect deep ball at unexpected times. He and Nico Collins drilled a gorgeous 37-yard sideline grab on second and 33, a week after simply ignoring the coverage on a 50-yard touchdown that flipped momentum. Collins dominates usage with a 27 percent target share and projects well against a unit that has not closed zones downfield. Few receivers win more contested vertical throws than Collins, and coordinator Nick Caley will move him around to stress the soft spots. If Stroud gets even average protection, the holes should be there.
It is jarring to see such failure from a Ravens secondary that lists Marlon Humphrey, Kyle Hamilton, Nate Wiggins, and Jaire Alexander. Through four games, they have yielded 271.0 yards per contest with nine touchdowns. Injuries are a huge part of the story. They have been without their two best edge rushers for long stretches. Humphrey and Roquan Smith are set to miss time, while Wiggins is questionable after missing Wednesday's practice. Even when active, Humphrey has looked like a diminished version, and Alexander has not played since an Opening Day benching. Patrick Mahomes II repeatedly tested Humphrey last week, a rarity in any season. The entire unit has struggled to pass off routes between zones. Rookie linebacker Teddye Buchanan has been targeted over the middle and beaten. Making matters worse, Kyle Hamilton did not practice on Thursday, which only adds to the Ravens' existing injury issues. With so many clear stress points, offenses have been able to pick their poison. On paper, this is a get-right spot for Stroud and Collins, with ancillary opportunities for Dalton Schultz on crossers. If Houston protects with play action and rhythm throws, Baltimore's current state invites efficient drives and a couple of deep body blows.
Arizona vs Tennessee
Arizona's passing game finally woke up at halftime of Week 4. The early script had been rough, but Kyler Murray spent the second half buying time and creating off schedule, and Marvin Harrison Jr. capped it with a sky-ball touchdown that showcased the length and hands that pushed him into the top of the draft. That confidence jolt came against a competent secondary. Now he draws one of the league's weakest. Harrison will see shaky boundary cornerbacks and poor deep help, exactly the spots where his size-speed package pays off. Trey McBride remains perpetually consistent as a near-the-line volume hub. Across his last 37 contests, he has averaged 5.8 receptions and 60 yards, and the Titans' safeties have not erased seam work. The only real worry is game flow. If Tennessee cannot sustain offense, Murray's attempts could stall in the mid-20s, which would cap ceilings for complementary pieces like Greg Dortch and Zay Jones.
Tennessee has opened the year as poorly as anyone expected, and the defense has not been the stabilizer they hoped for. Three of four opponents have moved the ball at will, with the last three passers hitting 73 percent at 8.8 per attempt and five touchdowns. Only Bo Nix was held in check back in Week 1. One shudders at the numbers if Matthew Stafford, Daniel Jones, and C.J. Stroud had been forced to throw more, but the Titans offense did not pose enough of a threat to do so. The issue is structural. The defensive line is intriguing and flashes push, but the back end is thin and repeatedly exposed by layered concepts. L'Jarius Sneed has not resembled the shutdown presence he showed in Kansas City. Jarvis Brownlee Jr., thrust into top duties by default, was traded two weeks ago to trim future salary. Safety Amani Hooker no longer deters downfield shots. Zones get stretched horizontally, and the seams are rarely capped on time. That is a troubling profile with Harrison living on deep digs and posts and McBride working stick nod and benders. If Arizona protects with chips and sprint outs, Murray should find explosive throws and enough chain movers to keep the foot down into the fourth quarter.
LA Chargers vs Washington
Justin Herbert has opened 2025 impressively, delivering three strong outings in four despite a sneaky tough defensive slate. He has already reached 300 yards twice and is operating a far more pass-friendly approach under Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman. Even last week's loss to the Giants had context. Herbert faced a ferocious rush without his regular left tackle, then lost the replacement mid-game, and still kept the offense on schedule for stretches. On balance, he looks fully in command. He is dropping back 40.3 times per game, up from 32.1 last year, and the Chargers are happy to throw regardless of the script. The downfield intent is obvious. His 8.6 average depth of target sits third in the league. Quentin Johnston has erupted as the vertical hammer, averaging 84.3 yards with four of Herbert's seven touchdowns and zero credited drops in 2025. The side effect is Keenan Allen and Ladd McConkey nibbling at each other's slot volume, but the weekly target pie is concentrated enough that both remain strong PPR plays despite McConkey's slow start. Against Washington's coverage, option routes and crossers should produce splash YAC.
Washington's pass defense has been carved up for three straight weeks. They opened by smothering Russell Wilson and the toothless Giants, then allowed 298.0 yards on average to Jordan Love, Geno Smith, and Michael Penix Jr.. The Penix tape is the most troubling. Coming off the worst game of his career, he hit 20 of 26 for 313 with two scores and repeatedly found Drake London and Kyle Pitts Sr. downfield in rhythm. Miscommunications and soft handoffs in quarters looks popped up again. Marshon Lattimore and Mike Sainristil have played like one of the league's weakest corner tandems. Veteran safety Will Allen had been a stabilizer, but he is out with a broken leg. The horses are not here right now. Tight ends have also hurt this group. Green Bay's Tucker Kraft went 6 for 124 and a touchdown two weeks ago, and seam issues persist. Last season's personnel had similar problems in the red zone. The Chargers present layered stress with Johnston clearing, McConkey winning speed cuts, and Allen optioning underneath. If Los Angeles holds up decently on the edges, Herbert should dictate tempo and stack explosive plays between the numbers.
Detroit at Cincinnati