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Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall of Famer Bob Harris and Gary Davenport have over 50 years of experience as fantasy football analysts and have won three Football Writer of the Year Awards between them. They know their stuff—or at least that's what they tell themselves.
NFL training camps are a time of hope and hype--in equal measure. The hope is that no matter how the 2024 campaign ended, this year will be better. The hype is born of that hope. For the team to be better, it has to play better, and that means every fan talks themselves into believing that every veteran is headed for a career year and every youngster is about to take the NFL by storm.
It's only natural that hype would bleed into fantasy football--it's hard to resist the allure of a million glowing reports about how everyone is awesome. More than a few players have seen their average draft position creep up.
Whether it's justified or not is another matter. That's what Harris and Davenport have gathered to do--sift through the noise and tell fantasy managers which players could legitimately be headed for fantasy stardom and which are as fake as the Moon Landing.
If you look closely, there's a Starbucks cup next to Buzz Aldrin's foot.
New Faces Under Center
The unresolved quarterback battles at this point in the offseason aren’t especially impactful for fantasy managers. But there are new starters at quarterback who could be. Of the first-year starters under center (at least for their current team), who will have the biggest fantasy impact—be it individually or for the players around them?
Harris: If I'm betting on one of the first-year starters, I'm betting on the one in the best situation. And for me, that's an easy call. J.J. McCarthy finds himself in an ideal spot. Beyond a remarkable supporting cast led by Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison (who is facing a likely three-game suspension this season), T.J. Hockenson, Aaron Jones, and Jordan Mason, head coach Kevin O'Connell is known for his quarterback-friendly offensive approach. ESPN.com's Mike Clay recently pointed out that three of O'Connell's past four offenses have scored at least 80 percent of their TDs through the air (that includes 2023 and 2024). All four offenses were very pass-heavy.
Better still, the Footballguys projections crew loves him. McCarthy is projected to finish as QB12, ahead of players like Caleb Williams, Jared Goff, Justin Herbert, Justin Fields, Drake Maye, Jordan Love, C.J. Stroud, and others. McCarthy is being drafted, however, as QB18 in the 11th round, well after all the other quarterbacks listed above. I love the value, and I'm expecting McCarthy to cash in on the circumstances.
Davenport: How did I know that Harris was going to pick McCarthy?
Maybe because I was going to. Great minds and all that.
Harris is spot-on about McCarthy (as much as it pains me to say nice things about Michigan players), but among the remaining first-year starters, Justin Fields of the New York Jets seems a relatively easy call as the next-up signal-caller in terms of fantasy impact. We have seen what Fields can be capable of for fantasy managers--Fields topped 1,100 rushing yards and was a top-10 fantasy quarterback back in 2022.
Fields actually did even better last year in Pittsburgh. Over his six games as the Steelers' starter, Fields was QB6. ADP creep has robbed Fields of some of his value, and a toe injury in camp gave fantasy managers a scare. But Fields is healthy, impressing on the practice field, and his rushing upside is impossible to ignore.
Into the Mud
As training camp got underway, there is no shortage of storylines at running back, be it injuries or muddied backfields. Of those clouded situations, which back are you most confident will emerge as a true fantasy asset. Which backfield is on your 10-foot-pole list?
Harris: If there's a muddy backfield I'm most interested in leveraging, it's the Broncos. Why? The addition of J.K. Dobbins changed things. The Broncos returned four running backs who had carries last season: Audric Estime, Jaleel McLaughlin, Blake Watson, and Tyler Badie. But they also traded up in the second round of April's NFL draft to select Central Florida running back RJ Harvey. Head coach Sean Payton has lauded Harvey's offseason work and said he believes Harvey can eventually become a player who can play in every down and distance situation.
But Dobbins was added after OTAs and minicamp. The Broncos were able to get a good look at Harvey before making a move. Payton said Dobbins' running balance and instincts are among the traits that stand out on film, and the sixth-year veteran has proven that ability, averaging over five yards per carry in his career.
Footballguy Cecil Lammey, who covers the Broncos on a daily basis in Denver, expects Dobbins to serve as the 1A to Harvey's 1B this season. Harvey is being drafted as RB21 at the end of Round 5; Dobbins is RB40 with a 10th-round price tag. Gary, you know I'm a hound for value. I'm going to have a lot of Dobbins on my rosters this year.
You also know I'm all in on any player at the right price. And while I'm sure I'll have shares of Jerome Ford (RB52) and Dylan Sampson (RB53) since both are going in Round 14, the lack of clarity that comes with rookie Quinshon Judkins' arrest leaves a wide range of outcomes for the 2024 season. As muddy as the Dallas and Jacksonville backfields are, Judkins is such a wildcard I'm avoiding Cleveland to the highest degree possible.
Davenport: Again, I'm in lockstep with Harris here on the Denver backfield--including preferring Dobbins given his fantasy price tag relative to Harvey's. Both backs could enjoy considerable success in 2025--it wouldn't be the first time that a Sean Payton backfield produced a pair of fantasy-relevant running backs.
The Dallas backfield was just starting to get interesting--while fantasy managers were trying to decide whether veteran Javonte Williams or rookie Jaydon Blue would win the starting job, it had been draft-day afterthought Miles Sanders who had been the Cowboys' most impressive running back in camp. Sanders is dealing with a minor knee injury, but if he isn't sidelined long and holds on to the lead job, he could become a "Zero RB" proponent's dream target late.
I'm doing my level best to avoid the backfield in Jacksonville, because it appears headed for a full-blown committee. Tank Bigsby has received most of the first-team work on the ground, but he's a complete non-factor in the passing game. With Travis Etienne Jr. and rookie Bhayshul Tuten poaching touches left and right, right now, no Jaguars back looks like more than an uninspiring "flex" play.
