The Target Report
I view target trees as "clean" or "dirty." Clean trees distill targets to their top options and give standout fantasy performances. Dirty trees are, well, a mess and rely on unpredictable possibilities. The chart below splits these offenses into categories.
Offenses with Top 2 Options > 60% target share are fantasy gold. The heavy volume afforded these receivers will generate fantasy WR1 seasons. Offenses with Top 2 Options > 50% and Top 3 > 70% are still narrow attacks capable of producing multiple fantasy contributors. Offenses with 1 Option > 25% and Top 3 < 70% suggest passing attacks hyper-focused on one core receiver. The secondary options in these attacks require volume or touchdowns and can be inconsistent producers. The final category fails to qualify for any other category. Often, these offenses exhibit flat distributions and can be attributed to different contributors on different weeks.
Offenses with Top 2 Options > 60% Target Share
| Team | Throws | Player | Targets | Stat Line | Target % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore | 19 | Zay Flowers | 9 | 7-143-0 | 47.37% |
| Rashod Bateman | 4 | 2-10-0 | 21.05% | ||
| DeAndre Hopkins | 2 | 2-35-1 | 10.53% | ||
| Indianapolis | 29 | Tyler Warren | 9 | 7-76-0 | 31.03% |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | 8 | 6-80-1 | 27.59% | ||
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 3-27-0 | 10.34% | ||
| Josh Downs | 3 | 2-12-0 | 10.34% | ||
| LA Rams | 28 | Puka Nacua | 11 | 10-130-0 | 39.29% |
| Davante Adams | 8 | 4-51-0 | 28.57% | ||
| Colby Parkinson | 2 | 2-(6)-0 | 7.14% | ||
| NY Giants | 32 | Malik Nabers | 12 | 5-71-0 | 37.50% |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 8 | 6-55-0 | 25.00% | ||
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 5 | 2-11-0 | 15.63% | ||
| NY Jets | 21 | Garrett Wilson | 9 | 7-95-1 | 42.86% |
| Breece Hall | 4 | 2-38-0 | 19.05% | ||
| Josh Reynolds | 3 | 2-18-0 | 14.29% | ||
| Philadelphia | 20 | Dallas Goedert | 7 | 7-44-0 | 35.00% |
| Saquon Barkley | 5 | 4-24-0 | 25.00% | ||
| Jahan Dotson | 3 | 3-59-0 | 15.00% | ||
| DeVonta Smith | 3 | 3-16-0 | 15.00% | ||
| Seattle | 22 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 13 | 9-124-0 | 59.09% |
| Ken Walker III | 3 | 3-4-0 | 13.64% | ||
| Cooper Kupp | 3 | 2-15-0 | 13.64% | ||
| Tennessee | 25 | Calvin Ridley | 8 | 4-27-0 | 32.00% |
| Elic Ayomanor | 7 | 2-13-0 | 28.00% | ||
| Chig Okonkwo | 4 | 3-19-0 | 16.00% |
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Flowers had five games with nine or more targets in 2024, all of which were in the first eight weeks. Although passing volume will always be a concern in this offense, the concentration of targets could push him into fantasy WR1 status.
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Warren's immediate involvement changes his fantasy outlook. His game complements Pittman well. Downs is a concern; finding consistent targets for him could prove a struggle.
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Expect Nacua and Adams to be regulars in this space. Sean McVay has been extremely willing to hyper-target his best players.
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Nabers and Robinson are another regular duo. Nabers picked up where he left off as a rookie; his 37% target share was the fifth highest in Week 1.
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Wilson posted one of the quietest 154 target seasons in 2024. Given his longtime connection with Justin Fields and lack of other options, this volume should continue.
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The Eagles are regulars here, given the usage of Smith and A.J. Brown. But Goedert and Barkley are a new one. Brown missed most of the preseason with an injury and struggled to create separation. The continued low volume and the ability to handle a division rival without involving the two receivers are concerning.
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Smith-Njigba was the Week 1 target share leader. That will not be a fluke. Sam Darnold is capable of delivering the ball to him, and they connected at all three levels of the field.
- Ridley powering through at a 32% target share despite seeing Patrick Surtain II Jr. is very encouraging for his season-long potential. Ayomanor is one of the biggest underrated winners of the week, pulling a 28% share in his first game, despite muted production.
Offenses with Top 2 Options > 50% and Top 3 > 70% Target Share