DraftKings GPP Domination Week 2

Slate Overview

Overreaction Week

Week 2 is traditionally one of the best spots on the DFS calendar to capitalize on overreactions. A healthy portion of our opponents will make sweeping judgments based on a single game, even though most NFL data takes several weeks to stabilize. When a player flops in Week 1, his ownership is usually suppressed in Week 2, even if his talent, role, usage, and matchup are exactly what we should be looking for in tournaments.

Likewise, players who popped in Week 1 are likely to attract inflated ownership, even if their efficiency is unsustainable or they benefited from weird game scripts rather than a meaningful role change.

Most metrics need about four weeks before we can start treating them as new baselines. Until then, usage, opportunity, and trusted projections carry more weight than one box score. Resist the urge to rush to conclusions, and you'll already be a step ahead of the field.

Top Game Environments

Targeting games where multiple players can hit their ceilings together reduces the number of things you need to get right to build a winning GPP lineup.

Games in bold indicate low projected ownership despite favorable scoring conditions.

Identifying Common Roster Construction

Identifying the most common roster construction helps us find ways to gain leverage without sacrificing ceiling.

QB: We can safely expect spending in the mid-$6K range at quarterback, where Brock Purdy ($6,200) and Dak Prescott ($6,400) stand out. Purdy gets the already-hapless Dolphins at home, with San Francisco favored by two touchdowns and implied to score nearly 30 points. Prescott's Cowboys are smaller home favorites against Washington, but shaky defenses on both sides make a shootout the most likely outcome, in the game with the highest implied total on the slate.

RB: Bijan Robinson ($8,200) proved impervious to awful quarterback play, accounting for 31.3 DraftKings points and a staggering 53% target share with Cooper Rush behind center. Rush should once again target Robinson relentlessly, and we have to question Carolina's run defense after Chicago's running backs steamrolled them for 224 yards and four touchdowns in Week 1. Jahmyr Gibbs, James Cook III, Jonathan Taylor, and Ken Walker III are off the main slate, leaving the high end of the running back pool fairly thin. Injuries have opened enough value at wide receiver that one of Derrick Henry ($7,200), Christian McCaffrey ($8,000), or Ashton Jeanty ($6,800) will commonly join Robinson at RB2. Three-running back builds featuring Aaron Jones Sr. ($5,100), who has Minnesota's backfield to himself this week, should also be the most common.

WR: A common spending pattern at wide receiver is easy enough to nail down, but ownership at the position will be flatter than usual. CeeDee Lamb ($7,300), Ja'Marr Chase ($7,600), and Justin Jefferson ($7,800) will cannibalize each other's popularity in the luxury tier. George Pickens ($6,300), Garrett Wilson ($6,000), and Christian Watson ($6,200) are difficult to separate in the mid-range. The value tier is crowded with Matthew Golden ($4,700) and injury fill-ins Kayshon Boutte ($4,000), Rashod Bateman ($4,400), and DeMario Douglas ($3,800). Quentin Johnston ($5,000) also joins the mix if Ladd McConkey is ruled out.

TE: It didn't take long for tight end to become its usual deserted wasteland. Trey McBride ($6,900) is way too expensive to fit the common construction, especially against Seattle's stingy defense. Nico Collins' hamstring injury has pushed Dalton Schultz into unlikely chalk at the position. If our opponents are comfortable leaning on enough value at wide receiver, Mark Andrews ($4,400) should also draw interest with Zay Flowers sidelined by a hamstring injury. 

Flip the Common Build: Three-running back lineups will be common, but most will include Jones, the best projected point-per-dollar value at the position. Fading Jones and foregoing a high-end wide receiver to build your lineup around Robinson, Henry, and McCaffrey has a lot of potential thanks to the wide receiver value in the middle and low ranges. Each will be popular on his own, but the three-player combination should be relatively unique and naturally push you toward a lineup construction the field is less likely to consider. 

Core Targets