Let's examine what we think of players with the preseason over and the season ahead.
- Mason Rudolph Fantasy Implications
- Teddy Bridgewater Fantasy Implications
- One-Week-Wonder, Decent Stopgap, or It's Just the Beginning?
- Buy, Sell, Hold?
Let's roll...
Mason Rudolph Fantasy Implications
Matt Waldman: Ben Roethlisberger is out for the year.
- Is Rudolph capable of becoming a fantasy starter?
- Are there any players that you believe will lose value and no longer be a fantasy starter?
- Are there any players that you believe will gain value and become a fantasy starter?
- Which surrounding talents see the greatest increases and decreases in fantasy value?
What are the ramifications of these events in Pittsburgh?
Jeff Pasquino: Rudolph is very green, but he has played well in the preseason for his first two seasons (QB Ratings of 90 and 113) with a 7:2 TD-to-INT ratio. Yes, it is preseason, but the Steelers are usually a smart organization, and they just traded away Josh Dobbs to Jacksonville. That's an endorsement in Rudolph, and they must feel that he's a capable backup. That will be clearly tested now for the rest of the year, but Rudolph's ceiling is higher than Teddy Bridgewater, I think, given that Pittsburgh will have to throw more than the Saints and that Rudolph will be the starter all year for the Steelers.
I am concerned about Donte Moncrief, as he has dropped far too many passes so far in that offense. Moncrief will likely be the WR3 to James Washington. I firmly believe that James Washington has a strong case to increase in value. Washington played at Oklahoma State with Rudolph, and that history (along with Moncrief's having more drops than catches so far this season) should point Washington's fantasy stock upwards.
I am holding Smith-Schuster as a WR1 for now, with Washington in the WR3/flex category. Rudolph's good enough to keep all of Pittsburgh's offense about where they were before, including James Conner (if healthy).
Jason Wood: We're about to find out, aren't we? As Jeff noted, there are positive signs including Pittsburgh's willingness to trade Josh Dobbs to Jacksonville. And Rudolph didn't look overmatched last week when stepping in for Roethlisberger.
On paper, Rudolph is set up for success. The rest of the unit is a seasoned, cohesive offense. The offensive line is among the AFC's best. And the system is battle-tested.
But Rudolph is young, and he doesn't have the arm talent, experience, or confidence of his veteran predecessor. The bar is high for fantasy relevance these days, but he's capable, for sure.
James Washington's arrow is pointing straight up for myriad reasons, some that Jeff already noted. Even if Roethlisberger hadn't gotten hurt, Donte Moncrief's abysmal performance meant Washington would have a larger role in the coming weeks.
But now Washington could emerge as soon as Week 3. If not now, when? I think it would be foolhardy to think JuJu Smith-Schuster or James Conner can sustain their prior values.
If Rudolph is up to the challenge, both can remain every-week fantasy players, but that's a big if. At best, Smith-Schuster and Conner fall a few spots onto the fringes of the WR1 and RB1 tiers, respectively.
Vince McDonald is harder to figure out. I had written him off before the season as overvalued, and it looked spot on after Week 1. But last week's two-touchdown performance piqued my curiosity.
Drew Davenport: I don't think Rudolph is going to be someone to count on this year for Top 12 production. As Jeff pointed out, the Steelers feel that he has come far enough to be their guy or they wouldn't have dealt Josh Dobbs to Jacksonville.
There is also an argument to be made that the offense looked more creative and multi-dimensional when Rudolph came in the game, but some of that can be chalked up to the Seahawks having no film on Rudolph and preparing a gameplan for Ben Roethlisberger.
I don't think Rudolph is going to completely kill the Steelers offense, but I see him settling in the QB15-20 range rather than becoming a starter. I do, however, want to pursue him in a Superflex setting for depth or as a second starter. But in general, I'm in wait-and-see mode in 1 QB leagues before I consider adding him.
I'm of the opinion that just about every player on the Steelers offense takes a hit with the switch, and I'm not thrilled to be a James Conner or JuJu Smith-Schuster owner today. Having said that, Conner and Smith-Schuster are still starters, but they now become top-end RB2/WR2 level instead of having the ceiling they did with Roethlisberger. Donte Moncrief is someone nobody should be rostering at this point, but that has little to do with the switch at quarterback.
I think that Jeff and Jason have hit on the right points with a couple of guys that could see an increase in value here: Vance McDonald and James Washington. I can't decide whether or not it's lazy analysis to say that because Rudolph played with Washington in college that they're more likely to click now that Moncrief and Roethlisberger are out of the way.
But I tend to believe that it does matter, and I'm watching Washingon closely for signs that he'll get more attention. That did *not* materialize this week as he only saw 1 target during Rudolph's appearance, but that's hardly a good measure. If an impatient owner dropped Washington, it's smart to see if you have a spot on your bench for him to see what develops.
I also agree that Vance McDonald could benefit from the change. His target numbers weren't what people were hoping for over the first six quarters of the season, but that changed Sunday. He saw 4 targets of 19 pass attempts and scored twice. It would be crazy not to think McDonald's situation has improved. The sample size is too small, but it's a good indicator.
As noted, Moncrief is cratering and should be dropped in all but the deepest leagues. Diontae Johnson saw 3 targets Sunday, so that is something to watch. Rudolph excelled at pushing the ball down the field in college and if that tendency holds then Johnson and Washington could end up being valuable.
At this point, it is wise to temper expectations overall. I don't think the offense will fall off a cliff, but I think they'll see a drop in production that limits their upside. I'm not interested in owning anyone outside of Smith-Schuster, McDonald, or Conner unless I have space on my bench to let things develop. The ancillary players in the offense aren't likely to see the opportunities they need to become reliable starters.
Sean Settle: With all of the talent surrounding Rudolph in Pittsburgh there is no reason to believe he cannot be a reliable fantasy spot starter. I would not roll with him as my primary option at quarterback, but he does have matchups against the Dolphins, Cardinals, Jets, and Bengals twice that will give him value.
Rudolph also has the benefit of potentially being the starter the rest of the season and time to work in the offense extensively. Rudolph has the skill set, offensive weapons, and favorable schedule to make him a starter certain weeks the rest of the season.
In addition to the struggles of Donte Moncrief, Ryan Switzer hasn't performed well. He was a fringe player in deep leagues already this year but there is a chance his roster spot is in jeopardy in Pittsburgh. After muffing a punt in the first quarter he was replaced by Dionte Johnson for the rest of Week 2 against Seattle. Any value he may have had to begin the season is gone due to poor play and the team losing its starting quarterback.
James Washington makes the biggest jump with Rudolph taking over at quarterback. With Donte Moncrief dropping more passes than he has caught, and Ryan Switzer being benched on special teams and potentially losing his roster spot, Washington should make the biggest jump in the offense. He could be considered a WR3-Flex option going forward, especially considering his connection with Rudolph from college.
If healthy, the biggest jump should come for Conner. The offense will have to rely on him more than before and should push him to clear RB1 status going forward. The Steelers have several games that are very winnable if Conner is healthy and gets 25-plus touches. JuJu should see a slight downgrade until he can build more rapport with Rudolph. He should remain a low-end WR1 but will see a slight decrease going forward.
Maurile Tremblay: Sure. There are no guarantees, but the starting quarterback in the Steelers offense has the upside to be a fantasy starter. And I think Rudolph has better upside than most NFL backups would.
He was a third-round pick last year, but he played well enough at Oklahoma State to merit first-round consideration. He beat out Josh Dobbs for the number two spot this year on the merits. While I don't necessarily expect the Steelers' offense to be as effective with Rudolph as it would have been with Roethlisberger, that possibility is well within the range of potential outcomes.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, James Conner, and Vance McDonald may (or may not) be marginally less productive without Roethlisberger, they are all still fantasy starters. James Washington is the player most likely to benefit from the change at quarterback. Washington was already moving ahead of Donte Moncrief in the rotation. His rapport with Rudolph (they were teammates at Oklahoma State) can only help.
On the whole, I don't believe the Pittsburgh offense will change much, and other than a possible bump for James Washington, I don't believe that any of the skill-position players on the Steelers will have their fantasy values much affected.
Waldman: The only commentary I'll add to this topic is about James Washington. We all know that he's an excellent player in the vertical game as well as a 50/50 target in the red zone.
The flaw in Washington's game that has kept him out of the starting lineup to begin the season has been running consistent route depths, which makes it difficult for Ben Roethlisberger to rely on him consistently. While this should still be an issue between Washington and Rudolph, their experience playing together for years at Oklahoma State likely mitigates this issue enough that the college connection that everyone mentioned above isn't lazy analysis.
Teddy Bridgewater Fantasy Implications
Waldman: Drew Brees is out for several weeks with a thumb injury.
- Is Bridgewater capable of becoming a fantasy starter?
- Are there any players that you believe will lose value and no longer be a fantasy starter?
- Are there any players that you believe will gain value and become a fantasy starter?
- Which surrounding talents see the greatest increases and decreases in fantasy value?
Let's discuss the fantasy implications.
Tremblay: No, I don't think Bridgewater is a fantasy starter in New Orleans. Bridgewater's style of play is similar to that of Drew Brees in one respect: They both favor short passes over taking shots down the field. But Brees is more accurate than Bridgewater, is quicker in his decisions, and is less hesitant to air it out when the opportunity for a big play presents itself.
Bridgewater is a dink-and-dunk quarterback who holds on to the ball too long and doesn't hit his receivers in stride to promote yards after the catch the way Brees does. I don't think Bridgewater is worth a roster spot in standard fantasy leagues.
Alvin Kamara definitely remains a fantasy starter, but his life just got more difficult. He'll have less room to run and fewer scoring opportunities. Jared Cook will suffer and may no longer be a fantasy starter. Ted Ginn Jr wasn't a fantasy starter in most formats, but his value takes a big hit as his deep speed will not be taken full advantage of.
One player whose fantasy value will not suffer much, if at all, is Michael Thomas. Thomas specializes is getting open on short and intermediate routes -- the kind that Bridgewater likes to throw -- and Bridgewater may lock onto him more than Brees did (as Brees was comfortable distributing the ball to many receivers all over the field).
Alvin Kamara will still get a lot of volume, but I'd expect a drop in his efficiency stats. While Michael Thomas should still put up the same kind of numbers we're accustomed to, the rest of the Saints' receivers will all lose fantasy value.
Settle: The only thing working against Bridgewater being a fantasy starter will be the play-calling in New Orleans. He was the face of the Vikings franchise before his gruesome injury and showed that he can lead a team.
He has all the offensive weapons around him that he could ever need, but I expect the Saints to lean on the run and even use Taysom Hill at quarterback more than they would if Brees was not hurt.
Bridgewater has all of the tools, it will just be a matter of how New Orleans wants to call the game each week.
The Saints have always had their clear starters and a small number of fringe players that can step up and have great weeks. It was difficult to predict when Brees was under center and will be even more so with Bridgewater.
Anyone not named Michael Thomas or Alvin Kamara will lose value. Jared Cook should not be trusted to start at tight end right now, both because of the change at quarterback and because of the way he has been playing.
Latavius Murray will gain some value as the Saints lean on the run but not enough to elevate him to a starting role in any league that is not 12 teams or deeper. He completely disappeared in week 2 after Brees went down and will always be a distant number 2 behind Kamara. He may see an additional 3-4 carries per game, but that will not be enough to drive him into a starting role on your roster.
Unfortunately, it looks like it will be a decrease across the board for the Saints. Michael Thomas still had 10 receptions on 13 targets with Bridgewater last week, but they failed to push the ball down the field or make any truly explosive plays.
Kamara had a hard time running the ball with the offensive line not being able to block anyone and he only saw 3 targets from Bridgewater which is a bit alarming. Both players are still in WR1 and RB1 territory, but they do not have the same value they had with Brees under center.
Davenport: It's difficult to say definitely "No" right now, but that is, in fact, my answer. The Rams defense was a tough test for Bridgewater to undergo. Coming in on the road against that pass rush is a brutal ask of any quarterback. He also has so many positives working in his favor — Sean Payton, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Drew Brees as a mentor...but I'm not buying anyway.
The upside just doesn't seem to be there with Brees able to return in about 6 weeks. Hoping for an immediate impact as a starter isn't a good bet. In a Superflex league he should definitely be on a roster, but keep in mind his expiration date.
I still think that Kamara and Thomas will be fine, but I'm more worried about Kamara. Brees is very good at throwing the ball in the right place so that Kamara can maximize his YAC, and they were on the same page with option routes out of the backfield that also maximized their potential. I don't see that happening with Bridgewater and Kamara's scant 3 targets after Brees went down is a bit of a red flag.
As far as the rest of the offense? I'm out on all of them. I didn't want Tre'Quan Smith or Jared Cook with Brees, and I certainly don't want them now. I had gone about the process of adding Ted Ginn Jr Jr., however, in some deeper leagues based on his usage rates in Week 1, but I think Ginn becomes droppable now.
Latavius Murray wasn't playing enough, to begin with, and an overall offensive efficiency drop also makes Murray droppable in anything 12 teams or less. I do think the Saints will attempt to play good defense and run the ball more, so I wouldn't argue with holding him, but the will to run the ball doesn't mean it will lead to fantasy relevance.
I think Michael Thomas is going to be peppered with targets. Watching Bridgewater play on Sunday it was clear that he felt comfortable going to Thomas, early and often. Thomas drew an incredible 12 targets after Brees went down and I don't expect that kind of usage to change much.
What was once a fertile fantasy ground has become a run-heavy limited offense. Thomas seems like the only beneficiary of the switch. There's an argument that Kamara will see some increased usage in the passing game as the Saints try to take the pressure off their first-time starter, but defenses are going to know this and that was apparent on Sunday. I'm concerned today if I'm a Kamara owner.
Wood: I'm skeptical. Since Bridgewater joined the Saints, a lot of industry analysts have taken to calling him the league's best backup quarterback. After all, he was a young, starting quarterback for a contending team before suffering a terrible injury.
But here's the thing, Bridgewater was overrated while in Minnesota. He had potential, sure, but his on-field performance was evocative of a game manager. He's never shown the kind of vision, decision-making, or touch needed to replicate Drew Brees' success.
Here's something to consider, of the 100 quarterbacks who've scored the most fantasy points in the last 10 years, Bridgewater ranks 73rd in fantasy points per game. He ranks behind such legends as Geno Smith, John Skelton, DeShone Kizer, Kevin Kolb, and Jake Locker.
Since I lean toward Bridgewater struggling, I've discounted everyone on the Saints roster. Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas are too talented and will have high enough volume to sustain relevance, but I see them as more volatile weekly plays now.
If you could trade Kamara for the likes of Dalvin Cook or Nick Chubb, I would do it. If you could move Thomas for the likes of Amari Cooper or Kenny Golladay, make it happen. Jared Cook was already losing relevance, but it's hard to see him as startable now.
Latavius Murray has struggled in two games as a Saint, but his future is bright. Sean Payton is a smart, rational coach. As such, the Saints are going to become even more run-heavy while Brees recovers. I expect New Orleans to be at or near the top of the league's rushing totals for the next eight weeks.
That means Murray will go from a complementary piece to Alvin Kamara, to someone who gets 15-20 touches in his own right. Murray's slow start and general fears about Brees' injury make Murray a key trade target. You can buy low right now and then sell high in six to eight weeks once Brees is set to return.
Pasquino: I only want Bridgewater in QB2 / SuperFlex leagues. It is not a plus that he's likely only starting through Week 8 (the Saints are off in Week 9).
As Drew and Jason mentioned, New Orleans could easily go run-heavy with Brees out. I believe Bridgewater is one of the best backups in the NFL (and paid that way, with a $7M one-year deal from the Saints).
I still remember walking through the Mall of America and seeing posters of Bridgewater everywhere. He was the face of the Vikings' franchise before his horrific injury. B
Bridgewater is more than capable of leading an NFL offense, but New Orleans may keep it more conservative and emphasize the run game. With Kamara, Latavius Murray and even Taysom Hill, the Saints have a lot of weapons to move the ball on the ground.
They should not have to lean on Bridgewater, which means that he won't be asked to throw 30-plus-times a week as part of the game plan—only if they fall behind. All that said, that increases Murray's value to RB2 status and lowers Mike Thomas a little, but likely not out of the WR1 category. Everyone else in the passing game takes a negative hit (Ted Ginn Jr, TE Jared Cook).
Waldman: Bridgewater played behind awful offensive lines in Minnesota and lacked a running game for most of his tenure as the Vikings' starter. Wood is correct that Bridgewater is a below-average vertical thrower as well.
Where Wood and I disagree is Bridgewater's skill in the pocket and in the short and intermediate ranges of the field. He's especially skilled at evading heavy pressure and finding the second and third windows of opportunity with routes working across the middle of the field.
Overall, I agree with everyone bearish on Bridgewater because Brees is a coach on the field in terms of play-calling adjustments. His experience reading coverage and skill with getting the team into the right calls are among the best in the league—if not every. And his command of the offense not only allows him to make quick changes but also make small playground-like adjustments with one player in the mix that fools the defense and creates big plays.
I've watched him do this on a pass protection call where he sent Mark Ingram into the flat but made the adjustment pre-snap look like he was pointing Jets safety Jamaal Adams to Ingram as an assignment. Ingram approached the blitzing Adams, slipped outside of him and there wasn't a defender within 20 yards of him in the flat when Brees threw him the ball.
We're not going to see this from most quarterbacks in the league, which is why Bridgewater may have a strong game or two, but I'm skeptical that he'll offer the consistently strong production of a fantasy starter.
ONe-Week Wonder, Decent StopGap, or It's just the beginning?
Waldman: Explain which end of the spectrum you fall on FOUR Week 1 performers. We're making these calls based on fantasy value as no worse than a consistent flex play in 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE), 1 TE lineups in PPR.
Feel free to comment on talent and skill if you wish.
- Case Keenum
- Josh Allen
- Matthew Stafford
- Demarcus Robinson
- Mecole Hardman
- Matt Breida
- Raheem Mostert
- Jeff Wilson
- Devin Singletary
- Devin Smith
- Nelson Agholor
- Will Dissily
- Tyler Higbee
Who showed they are on track for a great year and who merely had a good week?
Davenport: I don't think I've waffled on anyone as much as I have on Josh Allen. But watching him for two weeks has made me a believer. No, I don't think he's a great NFL quarterback. Yes, I think he has accuracy problems. But I believe that his fantasy production is not only sustainable, but his ceiling also extends into the top five at the position for the entire season.
He has the benefit of an excellent schedule as well. After a possibly tough Week 4 and 5 against New England and Tennessee, he doesn't see a truly tough matchup until he sees New England again in Week 16. This is in large part because Buffalo drew the NFC East this year and the pass defenses in that division are quite porous. They also draw Miami two times as well. Allen is set up for a big year.
Matt Breida looked absolutely dynamic on Sunday. The loss of Joe Staley is a blow, to be sure, but Breida is going to have some big days going forward. Being part of a three-back committee isn't ideal, but that and his injury history are the only question marks.
It's pretty unusual for the two backs behind Breida to steal all three running back touchdowns, so don't stress too much about it. It does make Breida just a solid starter instead of a top-end guy, but he looks like a great late-round pick from this summer.
It was nice to see Devin Smith back in the league and doing good things. His talent was never the problem, as we all know. But with Smith, I'm tempering my expectations. Gallup won't be out long so don't go too FAAB crazy on Smith. He's a nice stop-gap while Gallup gets healthy, but it's hard seeing Smith supplanting him or Cooper in the lineup long term.
I'm going to lump Nelson Agholor in with Smith here, but with one distinction. Agholor plays behind two guys, Alshon Jeffery, and DeSean Jackson, that are hardly iron men. Agholor is a guy that needs to be owned going forward for the rest of the season. He's not exciting to own, but the Eagles offense is strong and he'll get plenty of opportunities. He's both a solid stop-gap right now while Jeffery and Jackson recover, he's also a long term hold because his path to playing time has many routes.
Settle: As much as I want to root for Buffalo, Allen looks like a one-week wonder. The schedule is going to get considerably harder and the weather always turns in Buffalo. The supporting cast is very weak, and the Bills never seem to be able to sustain success. He will have 2 games against Miami that will be great starts, but he should not be trusted otherwise.
With the rash of quarterback injuries all around the league, Stafford is looking like a much better option than he did preseason. He saw a big drop off from his week 1 to week 2 stats, but also faced a much better defense going from the Cardinals to the Chargers. He will be a decent stopgap for teams who lost Brees, Roethlisberger, or Foles to start the season. The biggest thing he will have going for him is volume. The Lions have him throwing the ball 30+ times a game and he has a receiving core that can make big plays when needed.
We’ve only just begun with Breida. Despite the recent success of running backs behind him, he is still the starter for the 49ers. He had such a good game against the Bengals that the team elected to rest him and make sure he was fresh later in the season. Mostert looked great, but his carries came when the 49ers decided to rest Breida and the game was already well in hand. Breida is the starter for a team that is playing very well right now and should reward owners accordingly.
It is hard to trust a guy who seems to constantly drop the ball in big situations, but Agholor is in for a big increase in workload and falls somewhere between a decent stop-gap and we’ve only just begun. With injuries to DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffrey, it will be the Agholor show this week. If he can step up, he may finally break out and carve a decent role for the rest of the season. He is definitely a great play this week and could be the rest of the season depending on injuries and how he performs with the opportunity given.
Tremblay: Michael Gallup will miss the next 2-4 weeks, and a case could be made for putting Smith in the "Decent Stop-Gap" category during that time, but I wouldn't go that far. Even with Gallup out of the lineup, Amari Cooper and Randall Cobb are the two primary receivers. It's not clear whether the number three will be Devin Smith or Tavon Austin when both are healthy. (Austin was out with a concussion in Week 2.) Even if Devin Smith proves to be productive over the next few weeks, it will take that long for fantasy owners to trust him — and by that time, Gallup will be back on the field. Smith is a One-Week-Wonder.
We all saw the drop. We all saw Agholor's big-play ability as well. Most importantly, Agholor will have a few weeks with DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery likely out of the lineup. That gives Agholor a few weeks worth of value as a fantasy starter — an excellent stop-gap.
The Bills are 2-0 after a couple of road wins, and both Josh Allen and Devin Singletary have been dandy. Allen was generally inaccurate last season, but he's been largely on-target over the past two weeks, and his running ability makes him a fantasy standout. Devin Singletary has made a number of terrific plays on his relatively few opportunities, but his share of the workload will increase throughout the season. The Bills' run-blocking has also been surprisingly effective, a good sign for Singletary's prospects this season.
Pasquino: I have to pick a quarterback here as a potential pickup because if you had Drew Brees or Ben Roethlisberger don't trust Teddy Bridgewater or Mason Rudolph. Keenum has five touchdown passes (and zero interceptions) in the past two weeks against Philadelphia and Dallas, and the schedule is reasonable-to-favorable over the next several weeks. Brees will be out until at least Week 10 (Saints are on a bye in Week 9), and from Weeks 3-9, Washington has Miami, San Francisco and the Giants all in that stretch of contests. Keenum is an experienced veteran with an inexperienced group of receivers, but right now Keenum is performing as a solid QB2 with QB1 upside in good matchups.
Getting a piece of the Kansas City passing game is a fantasy bonanza. While Tyreek Hill is out, the passing game will go mostly through Travis Kelce and Sammy Watkins, but the additional pieces will continue to move around the chessboard and contribute. Both Robinson and Hardman were on the field for 60-plus snaps in Week 2 and look to be in the WR3/flex category with significant upside if there is a matchup that the Chiefs wish to exploit in any given week.
I am lumping all three San Francisco RBs in this week as this was a hot waiver wire item last week, and now it will be an even bigger decision with all three producing on Sunday. Who to go with going forward?
Breida seems like the best candidate in a committee backfield, but Wilson vultured two touchdowns, so Breida's upside may be limited. Mostert cleaned up (and racked up) late in the blowout win, but was involved early with a 39-yard screen touchdown in the first quarter. Both Breida and Mostert have value, but both are RB2s with limited upside—and Mostert looks to be more in the flex category.
Agholor was not only the "next man up" for the Eagles, but he was also close to the "only guy left" with both Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson out against Atlanta. Both starting wideouts are questionable for next week, so Agholor is a solid plug-and-play replacement if you had either receiver. Agholor is still having some drop issues (he missed a touchdown late that would have put the Eagles ahead and also given Agholor a much more impressive stat line), but expect him to start against Detroit and put up solid WR2/WR3 numbers in Week 3.
Wood: Entering the season, Keenum was a bottom-three quarterback in my rankings. He was an ugly duckling outside of the miracle season in Minnesota, and his downfall was predictable. But through two weeks, Keenum has looked serviceable at worst, viable at best.
If Trent Williams returns soon, as rumored, Keenum could have one of the league's better offensive lines and an intriguing breakout star in Terry McLaurin. Keenum shouldn't be on the radar in standard leagues, but in deeper leagues or Superflex formats, he's a priority add.
Robinson had a single catch for zero yards in Week 1 and was marginalized in our hearts and minds. That was a mistake, as he posted a six-catch, 172-yard, 2-touchdown breakout last week.
That said, he was only targeted six times — half as many targets as Sammy Watkins. Robinson isn't going to catch 100 percent of his targets in most weeks, so be excited, but don't fool yourself into thinking Robinson is a Top-15 receiver going forward. He's a boom-or-bust WR3, but given the Chiefs' potency, he's the best boom-bust WR3 in years.
Most of the debate in the summer revolved around whether Jerick McKinnon or Tevin Coleman was the 49ers running back to target. Two weeks into the season and three guys named Matt Breida, Raheem Mostert, and Jeff Wilson all put up big fantasy numbers.
In Kyle Shanahan we trust.
But when three running backs all play a lot, it's hard for fantasy managers to know what to do with them for future weeks. The answer is simple...Matt Breida is an every-week fantasy starter until he gets hurt or Tevin Coleman returns. Mostert maybe, too, but remember Breida was the first-team runner and got most of the work when the game was in question. Mostert's role was more about obvious passing downs, and Jeff Wilson wasn't used until the game was well in hand.
As an Eagles fan, I'm going to remember the catch Agholor didn't make against the Falcons for a long time. A pass literally went through his hands that would've been an easy touchdown to put the Eagles ahead with only a few moments left in the game. But the fantasy community shouldn't lose sight of Agholor's achievements in Week 2; he caught 8 passes for 107 yards and a touchdown. With DeSean Jackson out for at least a week or two, and Alshon Jeffery's status iffy, Agholor will be in line for 8-10 targets in Week 3, at a minimum.
Buy, Sell, Hold?
Matt Waldman: Choose four of these players and explain why you'd buy, sell, or hold them.
- Lamar Jackson
- Baker Mayfield
- Kyler Murray
- James Conner
- Nick Chubb
- Devonta Freeman
- Tyler Lockett
- Randall Cobb
- Will Fuller
- Josh Gordon
- Eric Ebron
- Tyler Eifert
- Jared Cook
- David Njoku (presuming he's healthy)
Who makes the cut?
Tremblay: I am buying Lamar Jackson. He's been fantastic as both a passer and a runner so far this season. There's nothing about his game to dislike. His rushing ability presents a solid floor, and his improvement as a passer gives him an off-the-charts ceiling.
I am also buying Kyler Murray. Fantasy production depends on volume and talent. Murray is favored by both of those factors. Kliff Kingsbury's offense is going to put the ball in the air a lot. A whole lot. The offense plays at a fast pace, ensuring many offensive plays per game; and it also features a high pass-run ratio. Murray is probably the favorite to lead the league in passing attempts this season. Every pass attempt is an opportunity for fantasy points. And that doesn't even take into account his skills as a runner, which he's yet to fully put on display.
I am selling Jared Cook. This is driven by the injury to Drew Brees. Brees will likely miss at least six weeks, and during that time, I do not trust Teddy Bridgewater to run the Saints' offense in a way that will produce a lot of fantasy points for his receivers not named Michael Thomas.
I am also selling Randall Cobb. He will get a lot of targets while Michael Gallup is out. But when Gallup returns in a few weeks, and when natural regression dampens the Cowboys' unsustainable passing production, Cobb will revert to the kind of season we all expected from him a few weeks ago -- not worthy of fantasy starts.
Settle: Jackson is someone I am holding on to anywhere that I have him. He has shown that he can both run the ball and throw it very well this year. People are just waiting to see him fail, but he has shown that he can be an NFL quarterback. With how well he has started, owners are asking too much in trade and as a seller, you would not be able to get the value he is worth. Jackson will be my starting quarterback going forward until he shows he is no longer capable.
I would buy every share of Conner possible as teams try and move off of him. Owners are worried about a knee injury, but Conner insists he will play this week. The Steelers will be without Roethlisberger the rest of the season and will lean heavily on the run. Conner should see a big bump in volume and the new offensive style will make Jaylen Samuels relevant as well. If someone is willing to sell Conner at a reasonable price, I am buying right now.
This is a tough spot for Josh Gordon until we know what is going on with Antonio Brown. For that reason, I am holding on to Gordon going forward. The addition of Brown cuts into the workload for Gordon, but all of the legal allegations could easily land Brown on the Commissioner’s Exempt list. It is a wait-and-see approach on Gordon right now as he is in a great situation without Brown on the team. Hold on to Gordon another couple weeks and see how everything shakes out.
There was no way Ebron would sustain the pace he had last season for touchdowns, and he lost a starting quarterback that could have been in the MVP race. If you can sell Ebron to someone else based on his numbers from last year or his touchdown last week, you should do it. The offense is not the same with Brissett under center and Ebron has lost a lot of value because of it. Get what you can for him or move on to one of the young and exciting tight ends in the league.
Davenport: Buy Lamar Jackson. Just. Buy. If anyone is discounting his start, take him off their hands. Jackson was a player that I mistakenly thought I'd get cheaper in drafts and when it didn't happen I bailed on him.
I'm regretting that now. Everything I see from Jackson so far says he's here to stay as a fantasy force. I realize that the Dolphins and Cardinals aren't the toughest matchups, but Jackson has compiled a ridiculous 126 rushing yards and 7 passing touchdowns in just two games. Even some regression against better defenses still gives him elite potential.
If you are a Fuller owner you should hold for better things coming. If you are 2-0 and need a receiver he should be very cheap to buy. Fuller leads the league in average depth of target, and he had to start the year on the road at New Orleans and against a tough Jacksonville defense. Things get much easier going forward and he's in a great spot to succeed. He'll always be volatile, but I believe in Fuller going forward.
Prior to the start of the season I saw Freeman as a solid third-round choice, or cheaper auction target, in drafts. After watching him for two weeks I don't have much confidence in his long-term viability. I'm selling on Freeman after seeing him against Philadelphia Sunday night. I do happen to believe that Freeman drew a tough start to the season in his first two matchups, but it's not encouraging to see him splitting time with Ito Smith almost exactly down the middle, and he hasn't looked like the player he used to be. If Freeman turns it around against Indianapolis in Week 3, I'd be trying to move him before a Week 4 date with Tennessee.
After a brutal first half against Detroit, Murray has been everything that was advertised. The Cardinals snap pace has been the fastest in the league, and while everyone is talking about Andy Dalton's passing attempt numbers, Murray leads the league with 94 attempts in two weeks. The offense has struggled a bit in the red zone, and that is to be expected, but the opportunities have been there.
Once he starts converting those opportunities his upside is Top 6. Consider also that he has compiled just 17 yards rushing on 6 carries against two disciplined defenses. He should start running more going forward, and when he does he'll challenge for elite numbers. I'm buying Murray at this point.
Wood: I want to thank my Footballguys brethren, particularly Daniel, for getting me to re-assess my initial take on Lamar Jackson. As a Louisville fan, I felt I had a good read on Jackson and doubted his ability to read NFL defenses effectively.
But Daniel and others made the counter case, and after some spirited film studies, I opened my mind to Jackson being a viable fantasy starter. From there his ADP was so low, he ended up on more than 70% of my rosters. In two weeks, he's gone from a lottery ticket QB2 to arguably the No. 2 overall fantasy quarterback, behind Patrick Mahomes II.
Jackson is making his reads, making on-target throws, and showing a deft touch as a downfield passer and closer to the line of scrimmage. Oh, and he ran for 120 yards in Week 2. There's probably no chance you can trade for him right now but if someone in your league has Jackson and a top-tier QB1 (whom they drafted as their starter), try to pry Jackson away for an RB2 or WR2. He's worth it.
Freeman doesn't have it anymore. It saddens me, but there's no reason to look at the game tape through two weeks and think he's simply off to a randomly bad start. He lacks explosiveness. He lacks leg push. He lacks a second gear. And the Falcons offensive line doesn't look improved from last year's debacle.
I'm worried about the Texans situation. Deshaun Watson has been sacked ten times already. No quarterback is going to survive an 80-sack season of 100-plus hits, much less back-to-back seasons of that kind of punishment. Even if Watson does stay upright, Fuller's role as the complementary vertical threat is marginalized with Kenny Stills' addition. Fuller will still have a few big games, but predicting when they happen is all but impossible.
I was skeptical of Josh Gordon after his reinstatement, and think his draft-day price was out of hand for the risks involved. But times change quickly, and Gordon's now a bonafide buy thanks to the Antonio Brown saga.
Brown's signing and emergence against Miami have a lot of owners wondering if Gordon's window closed. It hasn't. I suspect Brown will be suspended soon, and if that happens, Gordon is right back to Tom Brady's No. 2 target. Gordon had three catches for 73 yards and a touchdown in Week 1, and that should serve as a baseline for what he can do going forward if Brown isn't on the field.
Pasquino: BUY BUY BUY Lamar Jackson, who is a QB1 and a Top-5 value going forwards, without question. Jackson had an explosive Week 1 with five touchdown passes against Miami in just three quarters, with hardly any rushing value (3-6 rushing). Last week at home against Arizona, Jackson "only" had two touchdown passes but added 120 rushing yards. He is a multi-dimensional weapon with young but talented receivers and Jackson can flat out run and put up Top 5 quarterback numbers each week. Look for more of that against the Chiefs this Sunday.
Cleveland has a balanced offense, and that was on display against the Jets on Monday Night Football in Week 2. Chubb had an impressive 19-yard rushing touchdown for his first score of the season, and his 75 yards on 17 carries against Tennessee in Week 1 was a solid output as well. The Browns will continue to give Chubb 20-plus-touches—mostly carries—as their top rusher and he will continue to be a solid RB1 option in an offense that looks to be capable of living up to the preseason hype.
If you can trade Freeman for Mark Ingram or Latavius Murray, I would do that in a heartbeat. Freeman cannot handle a full workload, which is why he used to split time with Tevin Coleman when he was with Atlanta, and now the Falcons are realizing that Freeman needs to be in a committee. Atlanta likes Ito Smith a good deal, and based on Week 2, Smith could get more of a workload at the expense of Freeman.
Dallas needs a WR2 with Michael Gallup now out for a month, so it comes down to Cobb and Devin Smith. Look for Cobb to get the first crack at starting, as he has been on the field for 101 snaps so far for Dallas in the first two weeks. Cobb has been a starter before and Devin Smith is more of a deep threat, so look for Cobb to have some WR3/flex appeal until Gallup returns to action.
