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For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
Updated Sunday, September 20th @ 9 AM (EST)
TIPS AND PICKS
Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation. If you have questions about any of the recommendations or the process that led to them, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.
CASH GAMES
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
Dak Prescott | ATL | $6,800 |
Kyler Murray | WAS | $6,100 |
Quarterbacks: If the opportunity cost is not prohibitive (i.e., you have to roster risky no-name receivers to do so), feel free to roll with Lamar Jackson as your cash game running back this week against the Texans. But because salary/value drives all DFS decisions, you should certainly give consideration to both Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray in their respective matchups. Prescott gets a soft matchup against a porous Falcons secondary that allowed Russell Wilson to complete nearly 90% of his passes last week, including 4 for touchdowns; this one looks to be a barn-burner on paper and Prescott has all the weapons necessary to post a solid floor with upside at home. Alternatively, feel free to save $700 from Prescott and roster Kyler Murray in his place. Murray will be the beneficiary of Kliff Kingsbury's ultra-fast offense that was discussed in this column last week. As expected, the Cardinals ran 78 offensive plays and Murray collected over 27 DK points along the way, including nearly 100 yards and a touchdown via his legs. DraftKings, for reasons unbeknownst to this author, dropped Murray's price against Washington this week, which makes him even more attractive.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
Ezekiel Elliott | ATL | $8,200 |
Derrick Henry | JAX | $7,900 |
Kenyan Drake | WAS | $5,900 |
Jonathan Taylor | MIN | $5,700 |
Running Backs: The general roster build on DraftKings' cash game lineups this weekend will be heavy on expensive running backs and cheaper with receiving options. At the high-end of the price scale for running backs, both Ezekiel Elliott and Derrick Henry are the likely candidates for the bulk of cash games. Elliott looked splendid in his season-opener against the Rams, dicing through the offense and collecting nearly 130 all-purpose yards with a pair of touchdowns on 26 opportunities. Meanwhile, Derrick Henry delivered similar yardage numbers (sans the touchdowns) on 34 touches against the Broncos on Monday night. Both of these running backs are bellcow options playing for sizeable home favorites, which further supports their place in your cash game rosters. Dropping down in price, Kenyan Drake and Jonathan Taylor offer savings without a dramatic uptick in risk. Taylor is probably the safer option because he will appear in > 50% of all cash game rosters and if he were to falter, you would not lose ground on those competitors. Drake, however, is also intriguing for both cash and GPP consideration. Coming off tough sledding against the Niners' solid defensive front, Drake still managed 18 touches and score to collect 14.5 DK points last week; as a touchdown home-favorite against Washington this week, he offers a similar floor with upside in the Cards' fast-paced offense.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
Davante Adams | DET | $8,100 |
Mike Evans | CAR | $6,400 |
Amari Cooper | ATL | $6,300 |
Diontae Johnson | DEN | $4,500 |
Breshad Perriman | SF | $3,800 |
Wide Receivers: Until DrafKings moves Davante Adams' salary into the 2019 Michael Thomas stratosphere, he is as close to "must-play" at the position as anybody. Aaron Rodgers is locked-in with Adams, as evidenced by Adams' league-high 17 targets last Sunday; there is no reason to expect less output this weekend against a Lions' defensive backfield that yielded 3 passing touchdowns to Mitchell Trubisky on opening weekend, demonstrating how much they will miss Darius Slay in 2020. Elsewhere, Mike Evans and Amari Cooper are similarly priced options on teams slated to score > 28 points this weekend. With Chris Godwin expected to miss this week with a concussion, Evans should get as many targets as he can handle against the Panthers. Amari Cooper amassed double-digit (14) targets last week and should be expected to see similar action against a weak Falcons secondary on Sunday. For cheaper options, look to Diontae Johnson ($4.5K) who looked to be rounding into form in his sophomore season against the Broncos on Monday night; his salary was unaffected due to the late game, which means he is discounted from where he should be based on that game. Lastly, Breshad Perriman is not for the faint of heart, but the Jets have almost no options with Jamison Crowder (hamstring) already announced as 'out' and a gamescript that will heavily favor the passing game.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
Chris Herndon | SF | $3,400 |
Jordan Reed | @NYJ | $2,600 |
Tight Ends: To afford the pricier running back options, it will likely be necessary to punt again this week with tight ends for cash games. At the top of the list is Chris Herndon, who was the Jets' second most-targeted receiver last week behind Jamison Crowder. With Crowder sitting this one out due to a hamstring injury and LeVeon Bell also on injured reserve (hamstring), Sam Darnold has limited options with which to move his offense. Look for Herndon to help move the sticks and, in the process, deliver 3x on his modest $3.4K salary in a gamescript that favors his involvement. Opposite Herndon is the concussion-prone Jordan Reed at a bargain-basement price point. Reed will absorb the TE1 role with George Kittle resting an ankle injury suffered in Week #1. In relief of Kittle last week, Reed caught a pair of passes for 12 yards on a team that is heavily in need of receiving options. With Deebo Samuel, Jalen Hurd, and now Kittle sidelined, Reed should get ample opportunity to deliver 3x value on his pittance of a salary. **We learned overnight that Head Coach Kyle Shanahan has hinted that Jordan Reed will still be limited despite George Kittle's absence today. If we take his comments at face-value, you have to remove Jordan Reed from all DFS plans this weekend because he would have to do too much with limited opportunities to justify the risk. He is no longer recommended especially with names like Herndon, Thomas, and Mo Alie-Cox in a similar price range.**
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
Cardinals | WAS | $3,000 |
Jets | SF | $2,000 |
Team Defenses: DraftKings has started 2020 by pricing the elite defenses approaching $4.0K, which renders those defenses more difficult to justify for cash games due to the scoring volatility of the position. Here, the recommendation is to save a few dollars and go with either the Cardinals against Dwayne Haskins at home or to roll with a total punt option in the form of the Jets at home against the 49ers. With the Cardinals, you get upside baked into your selection with Haskins' propensity to throw interceptions (7 picks versus 8 touchdowns in his short career) and a decent scoring floor given Washington's general lack of talent on offense. Clicking on the Jets may be painful, but they allowed 27 points to the Bills last week and still managed 7.0 DK points, which would be more than 3x value on their site-minimum salary against the Niners, who injury-depleted offense is far from intimidating.
TOURNAMENTS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
Patrick Mahomes II | @LAC | $7,700 | 9% |
Josh Allen | @MIA | $6,700 | 5% |
Deshaun Watson | BAL | $6,400 | 4% |
Mitchell Trubisky | NYG | $5,500 | 4% |
Tyrod Taylor | KC | $5,300 | 3% |
Dwayne Haskins | ARZ | $5,100 | 2% |
DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
Daniel Jones | @CHI | $5,800 | 1% |
FADE: | |||
Tom Brady | CAR | $6,500 | 4% |
Quarterbacks: It goes without saying, but Patrick Mahomes II is a GPP candidate every week. With momentum around names like Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, and Matt Ryan entering Sunday, Mahomes' popularity within DFS circles will likely go too low--get double-digit exposure to Mahomes because of his elite skill-set, surrounding talent, and low projected rostership. In Miami, Josh Allen is an intriguing contrarian option who only needs to capture lightning in a bottle to deliver a GPP-worthy performance. Last week, he overthrew his receiver in the endzone on two separate occasions and still managed to finish with 33.2 DK points; nestled squaring between Matt Ryan and Dak Prescott, Allen is going unnoticed despite 100-yard rushing and 300-yard passing upside. Going cheaper, take a few stabs with low-rostered quarterbacks in games where they could be expected to throw often. Mitchell Trubisky is playing for his job and it was evident last week against the Lions, when he tossed three touchdown passes, none of which went to Allen Robinson (see below); his matchup against the Giants is not intimidating after watching Ben Roethlisberger throw for three touchdowns after not playing a snap in nearly a year. Definitely a minority opinion, but I am not ready to throw in the towel on Tyrod Taylor after a single game...particularly when his next game is against the Chiefs, who will force the Chargers to throw the ball in catchup mode for the bulk of the game. One of my bolder calls of the week, Taylor will appear on 8-12% of my GPP lineups because of the matchup, low crowd exposure, and cheap receiving options from which to stack.
- Sleeper: Daniel Jones posted 19.4 points on Monday night against a talented Steelers defense that rates higher than the Bears' defensive unit that allowed 27 points to a Kenny Golladay'less Lions team last Sunday. Newly implemented Offensive Coordinator, Jason Garrett, implemented a no-huddle offense in Week #1 that operated on nearly 60% of the Giants' snaps and resulted in one of the faster-paced offenses of the week. Add in the fact that the Giants defense is suspect, this game has sneaky high-scoring potential and Jones has a series of underrated receivers to help bolster his chances at surpassing 20+ points to achieve GPP value.
- Fade: We got our first look at Tom Brady last week and we can probably expect to see him play better than he exhibited against a strong Saints defense as the season progresses. At present, we foresee him on ~ 4% of lineups, but it would not be surprising to see that number double by the time lineups lock on Sunday. With Chris Godwin (concussion) expected to miss and the Panthers continuing to be a Swiss-cheese unit against the run, this could be a situation where the Bucs lean on Ronald Jones II and save Brady's 44-year old arm for another day.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
Saquon Barkley | @CHI | $8,400 | 6% |
Aaron Jones | DET | $7,100 | 3% |
Austin Ekeler | KC | $6,500 | 5% |
Raheem Mostert | @NYJ | $6,400 | 19% |
Miles Sanders | LAR | $6,000 | 6% |
Melvin Gordon | @PIT | $5,200 | 6% |
DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
Adrian Peterson | @GB | $4,700 | 1% |
FADE: | |||
Jonathan Taylor | MIN | $5,700 | 27% |
Running Backs: As a general rule, any time you can get an elite talent at single-digit field exposures, it is advisable to go overweight on those numbers. Saquon Barkley certainly fits those criteria against the Bears this week. Barkley could end up on less than 5% of rosters, which is far too low for a player of his caliber, especially when one considers his opponent allowed the Lions hodge-podge collection of running backs to surpass 100 yards on the ground in their opener. In Green Bay, Aaron Jones is not an "elite" talent, but he certainly merits higher consideration than is currently anticipated from the masses. Jones yielded touches to the Packers ancillary backs in Week #1, but he still accrued 22 opportunities and delivered a touchdown in the process; he has two-touchdown upside and merits more consideration than the general field is giving him entering Sunday. Austin Ekeler is admittedly risky after watching him lose goalline touches to Josh Kelley and then catching only a single pass in Week #1, but we would be remiss to ignore the fact that he collected 20 touches in the process. In a game where the Chargers will be expected to throw often, Kelley's role should be diminished and Ekeler has proven himself as an effective pass catcher in the past--look for a rebound game from Ekeler, despite what the pundits are saying, and take advantage of his low-implied roster projections. Lastly, ex-Charger Melvin Gordon is a sneaky GPP option on Sunday. With Phillip Lindsay expected to miss with turf toe, MG3 could get bellcow-like volume against the Steelers. To be fair, the Steelers looked great on Monday night against Saquon and Company, but Gordon's implied volume and low crowd exposure make him a prime tournament option; he will be on somewhere around 20% of my GPP lineups.
- Sleeper: The ageless wonder, Adrian Peterson, fell into the Lions backfield after getting cut by the Washington Football Team late in training camp. In his first foray wearing silver and blue, Peterson delivered an impressive 14/93/0 stat line and added another 3 catches for 21 yards, finishing the day with nearly 15 DK points. After rookie DAndre Swift effectively lost the game for the Lions with an endzone drop late in the fourth quarter, we should expect to see a substantial dose of the veteran, Peterson, against the Packers who allowed 100 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns to the Vikings last week.
- Fade: While you should not avoid Jonathan Taylor in your cash games, there is reason to back away from his likely 30% exposures in tournaments on Sunday. The hard-nosed rookie looked solid in his NFL debut, but split touches with Nyheim Hines who scored twice and likely earned himself a similar share of the workload against the Vikings this weekend. Taylor is not a bad tournament option per se, but rather this fade recommendation is predicated on him appearing on a third (or more) of tournament lineups; you are advised to max out your exposure to Taylor on no more than 20% of your total GPP portfolio.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
JuJu Smith-Schuster | DEN | $6,500 | 4% |
Allen Robinson | NYG | $6,400 | 5% |
Mike Evans | CAR | $6,400 | 7% |
Marvin Jones | @GB | $5,700 | 11% |
Darius Slayton | @CHI | $5,000 | 9% |
Brandon Aiyuk | @NYJ | $4,300 | 6% |
Corey Davis | JAX | $4,000 | 15% |
Quintez Cephus | @GB | $3,800 | 1% |
DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
Jakeem Grant | BUF | $3,900 | 1% |
FADE: | |||
CeeDee Lamb | ATL | $4,700 | 12% |
Wide Receivers: JuJu Smith-Schuster did everything right in the season-opener; he caught every pass thrown in his direction and finished with a pair of scores, but his salary dropped 10% to $6.5K because of salaries being released prior to his Monday night game. Smith-Schuster is getting overlooked due to Diontae Johnson's lower salary, but he is an excellent leverage option over those rosters deciding to save salary with Johnson. In Chicago, Allen Robinson expressed discontent with his contract situation and general role with the Bears; expect Matt Nagy to give the ball to their best player on Sunday to grease that squeaky wheel and take advantage of a Giants secondary that let the aforementioned JuJu Smith-Schuster score twice on Monday night. The rationale is not entirely clear, but Mike Evans being on single-digit percentages of tournament rosters is flat-out wrong when we consider that Chris Godwin will not be active for their matchup against the Panthers. Evans will be competing with Scotty Miller and Justin Watson for touches--bet on Evans to finish this one with double-digit targets and a score at a reasonable cost and projected roster numbers. For punt options, do not sleep on a pair of rookies: Brandon Aiyuk, the 49ers' first-round pick, makes his NFL debut on a weekend where the Niners desperately need warm bodies to catch the ball. For the Lions, Quintez Cephus, touted by Phil Alexander on this week's edition of the Power Grid, is an intriguing option after he flashed some unexpected brilliance in his NFL debut; with Kenny Golladay (hamstring) missing another game, he could capitalize on the additional opportunity.
Sleeper: As heavy underdogs against the Buffalo Bills, the Dolphins should be expected to lean on the passing game to keep pace. The issue with targeting the Dolphins' passing game is that the Bills' strength on defense is their defensive backfield, headlined by TreDavious White. Look for Preston Williams to be the crowd favorite of the Dolphins' receivers on Sunday, but it will be Williams who gets shadow coverage from White, which should lead to overflow action for Jakeem Grant. Grant is the type of player whose situation, not his talent level, dictates his presence in tournament lineups. He did not reach paydirt in 2019, but with DeVante Parker (hamstring) out, Allen Hurns opting out due to COVID, and Preston Williams getting TreDavious White coverage, Grant is the primary beneficiary and will an extremely low number of rosters.
- Fade: The Cowboys-Falcons game is going to attract a lot of DFS attention for both cash games and tournaments due to the Vegas total of 53 points. DFS players wanting a cheap piece of the Cowboys' offense will be tempted to roster rookie CeeDee Lamb after a respectable 5/59/0 NFL debut. The recommendation is to go underweight on Lamb this week against the Falcons largely because we should trust veteran receivers, particularly those as talented as Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup, moreso than those still acclimating to the nuances of NFL defenses. Much like the narrative on Jonathan Taylor (above), this fade suggestion relates to your overall exposure to Lamb relative to the field--you should probably be in the 6-10% range of total exposure, which is about half of the total percentage of the masses.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
Travis Kelce | @LAC | $7,000 | 14% |
Tyler Higbee | @PHL | $4,700 | 5% |
Mike Gesicki | BUF | $4,000 | 3% |
Logan Thomas | @ARZ | $3,600 | 10% |
DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
Hunter Henry | KC | $5,100 | 3% |
FADE: | |||
Mark Andrews | @HOU | $6,300 | 10% |
Tight Ends: Always in play as a two-touchdown upside option at a position where that kind of upside is a rarity, Travis Kelce tops the list of GPP options this weekend. Kelce finished the season-opener with a 6/50/1 stat line and could easily double that on any given Sunday; with limited attractive options on this particular slate, feel free to go overweight on where the field is projected to land (projected roster percentage). In Miami, Mike Gesicki is a solid sleeper selection for tournament formats due to Buffalo's excellent cornerbacks who typically force passing action to the middle. With Devante Parker out and Preston Williams absorbing TreDavious White's lockdown coverage, Ryan Fitzpatrick has limited options and Gesicki sits atop that short list at only $4.0K. Lastly, Logan Thomas is a crowd favorite, but probably deserve the heightened attention after scoring in his debut with the Washington Football Team. Thomas gets a plush matchup against last year's league-worst defense against tight ends, the Arizona Cardinals; given the implied gamescript and anticipated fast-paced nature of the game, it would not be surprising to see Thomas find paydirt on back-to-back weekends at a reasonable price.
- Sleeper: As referenced earlier in the article, the DFS community hates Tyrod Taylor and the relative exposure of the field to the Chargers has skewed too low as a result. With Hunter Henry projected to be on less than 5% of rosters, he represents a solid GPP sleeper that provides two-touchdown upside to help differentiate and escalate your lineups on Sunday. Henry had a solid 5/73/0 stat line on 8 targets last week and should be expected to be busy playing catchup against the Chiefs, who allowed the Texans' tight end, Jordan Akins, to score last Thursday night in the season opener.
- Fade: With double-digit field exposure, Mark Andrews is the recommended fade at tight end this weekend. DFS players are surely rostering him due to his outstanding 5/58/2 performance against the Browns last week, but we cannot expect any player in the NFL to post touchdowns every week, let alone a tight end on an offense as diverse as the Ravens. Andrews certainly brings upside to the position, but no more than Travis Kelce or Zach Ertz, both of whom will likely land on fewer rosters than Andrews by the time lineups lock on Sunday. Target somewhere around 5-9% of your total GPP portfolio with Andrews; pepper the rest with alternative options, including those in this column.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
Pittsburgh Steelers | DEN | $3,800 | 4% |
Tennessee Titans | JAX | $3,500 | 2% |
Tampa Bay Bucs | CAR | $2,900 | 9% |
Miami Dolphins | BUF | $2,100 | 6% |
DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
Kansas City Chiefs | LAC | $3,400 | 1% |
FADE: | |||
LA Rams | @PHL | $2,800 | 7% |
Team Defenses: A week after budget defenses delivered GPP wins, look for recency bias to take hold and the bulk of tournament rosters to contain a cheap defense. Thus, paying up for an expensive defense this week could be a shark move, particularly because we have now gotten a brief look at those defenses and their respective offensive opponents. Topping the list are the Steelers, who looked stellar on Monday night shutting down the Giants in New York. This week, they get the Broncos who could be missing Courtland Sutton (shoulder) and Phillip Lindsay (turf toe), at home at field exposures too low for their scoring upside. Also interesting, the Buccaneers defense looked far better than the score might have suggested in Week #1. In line with 2019, they largely stuffed Alvin Kamara's running lanes, holding the Saints to only 68 rushing yards on 28 carries (3.1 YPC). Enter the Panthers, whose reliance on offense centers around their star running back, Christian McCaffrey; the result could be forcing the Panthers to play to their weakness (throwing the ball) which rarely plays to an offense's advantage. Lastly, you are encouraged to get a few shares of the Dolphins defense at only $2.1K. As described earlier in the article, Josh Allen was errant in Week #1 and the Dolphins' stellar cornerbacks could easily take an Allen interception to the endzone for a quick six points at an excellent price.
- Sleeper: Surprisingly, as much as the DFS community despises Tyrod Taylor, they have not jumped on the Chiefs defense. Projecting to be on only ~ 1% of tournament lineups, the Chiefs are an intriguing contrarian option at the team defense position. Last week, they allowed 20 points to an arguably better Texans offense and managed to sack Deshaun Watson 4 times en route to 7 DK points. If we are to believe that Tyrod is washed, this Chiefs defense should be on more lineups than is currently projected. Target somewhere between 3-5% to get a leg up on the competition without putting yourself at too much risk.
- Fade: To be fair, this fade recommendation is based on the likelihood that we see the Rams' total projected roster numbers increase heading into Sunday. We should suspect that questions surrounding Miles Sanders' health and the general lack of talent in the Eagles wide receiving corps to generate some momentum as group-think takes over late in the weekend--I will be surprised if the Rams' final crowd exposure lands in the single digits. Get some exposure to Jalen Ramsey and company, but definitely no more than 5% overall. Instead, diversify your GPP portfolio with lesser-rostered defenses to increase uniqueness and overall upside.