Photo: USA Today Sports

For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.

Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.

TIPS AND PICKS

Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation. If you have questions about any of the recommendations or the process that led to them, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.

CASH GAMES

Quarterbacks: Before you begin crafting your cash game lineups this week, think about your approach. Do you want to go the 'stars and scrubs' route or are you more comfortable with a balanced roster? If stars and scrubs is your choice, Lamar Jackson is your guy. Jackson continues to put up monster stat lines despite having limited surrounding talent. He is averaging 23.3 DK points per game this season and has achieved (or surpassed) 3x this week's salary in every game over the past month, a month that saw him rush the ball 45 times for ~ 350 yards and 4 touchdowns. In need of a win to secure a playoff spot, Lamar should be in the game long enough to get the numbers he needs to justify his spot in your cash game lineup. If, however, you wish to take a more balanced approach to your lineup construction, Matt Ryan is in play against the pass-funnel Tampa Bay Bucs defense. Tampa Bay needed a combination of Chase Daniel and David Blough last week to stop the bleeding on a series of games that saw them get gashed by opposing quarterbacks, including 356 yards to Matt Ryan, 462 yards to Patrick Mahomes II, and 376 yards to Jared Goff. The Bucs, however, are stout up front, as evidenced by their 6th-ranked DVOA rush defense and only having allowed one 100-yard rusher (Dalvin Cook, 102 yards in Week #14) all season. The good news is that the Falcons are not running ball since Todd Gurley's knees have begun to bother him again--Atlanta has thrown the ball on 70% of offensive snaps over their previous 3 games (third-highest rate in the league). In a potential barnburner with an implied pass-heavy gamescript, Matt Ryan is attractive in all DFS formats for these reasons.

Running Backs: There are worse decisions that targeting the worst two rush defenses in the league with Derrick Henry and Alexander Mattison this weekend. Henry should lead a Titans offense that boasts the highest implied team total on the main slate as a touchdown-favorite against the Texans' 30th-ranked DVOA rush defense that yielded 50 DK points to Giovani Bernard and Samaje Perine just last Sunday. Meanwhile, Mattison gets the nod due to an unfortunate death in the family for Dalvin Cook. Mattison must be salivating at the matchup against Detroit, who allow more fantasy production to running backs than any team in the league; priced at only $6.1K, Mattison is one of the more attractive cash game running back options this weekend. While a case could be made for Melvin Gordon (see Tournaments section) and possibly even Ty Johnson for cash game consideration, it is Malcolm Brown and Ty Montgomery that make the cut. Be sure to monitor the status for Cam Akers on Sunday morning and refer to our Jene Bramel's Gameday Injury Expectations for a final take, but Brown could play a bellcow role if Akers is inactive or otherwise limited against the Cardinals. There is reason to believe that Sean McVay will want to minimize John Wolford's involvement in this game, so feeding Brown 16+ times would go a long way to cutting down on potential mistakes from the untested quarterback. In Charlotte, Ty Montgomery appears to be taking the lead running back role after a series of events coming out of New Orleans over the weekend. First, we learned that Alvin Kamara has contracted COVID and will miss this game against the Panthers and possibly the Saints' first playoff game (assuming they do not get a first-round bye). Later on Saturday, it was reported that all active running backs on the Saints roster will be inactive due to 'close contact' with Kamara. That leaves a combination of Ty Montgomery, Tayson Hill, and Tony Jones to run the ball out of the New Orleans backfield. The nod goes to TyMont, a former Green Bay Packer with good hands, because Drew Brees should be able to exploit his pass-catching abilities much in the same way that he does with the aforementioned Kamara. For tournaments, TyMont is a bit trickier, as his percent-rostered will become the differentiator--if his projections get much above 20-25%, fade him relative to the field (and vice-versa).

Wide Receivers: With the value presenting itself at the running back position, you should be able to slot one of the two high-end receivers into your cash game rosters. Both Davante Adams and Calvin Ridley have been red-hot and merit consideration for cash games. Adams has posted 15 touchdowns across his previous 10 games and is en route to a career season despite missing 2 games earlier this year. Ridley continues to merit consideration without Julio Jones; in 5 games without Julio this season, Ridley has surpassed 100 yards in 4 of them and still managed a 6/50/1 stat line in the outlier performance. In the mid-range and potentially off the beaten path, Curtis Samuel could find his way into my cash game lineups on Sunday. Samuel should touch the ball 12-16 times against the Saints as both a runner and a receiver due to Mike Davis missing this contest with an ankle injury. Samuel basically split action with Rodney Smith after Davis left last week's contest and has averaged 5.6 catches per game since the mid-point of the season. At Lucas Oil Stadium, Laviska Shenault is in play as a cash game consideration due to an injury to D.J. Chark and a combination of his cheap salary and implied gamescript; he has delivered (or come close to) 3x value on this week's salary across the month of December. Lastly, do not sleep on Richie James as a punt option against the Seahawks; James should be the primary wide receiver for the Niners with Brandon Aiyuk missing the season finale due to an ankle injury. George Kittle will certainly cap James' ceiling, but it is difficult to envision a scenario where James does not finish this contest with 5-7 receptions which would be more than enough to justify his $3.1K salary.

Tight Ends: In his return to the field last week, George Kittle was on a snap count but managed to play about half of his team's offensive snaps. We can expect his role to expand this Sunday against the Seahawks, particularly given that Brandon Aiyuk will not be active due to an ankle injury sustained in last week's game. Kittle, like Travis Kelce, is largely matchup-proof and is worthy of consideration in all formats on a weekly basis because of his central role in his team's offense, as well as his overall skill set. The matchup against Seattle is solid, as the Seahawks allowed Logan Thomas to compile a 13/101/0 stat line just 2 weeks ago. If Kittle's salary is a reach for your specific lineup build, Evan Engram will fit the bill for the second consecutive week in this space. Last Sunday, Engram was recommended against the Ravens, a much tougher opponent than the Cowboys, and he delivered 7 catches for 65 yards and his asking price dropped $200 in the process. With eight or more targets in over half of his 2020 games, Engram is an excellent mid-to-low range option at the position for cash game formats.

Team Defenses: The Browns enter Week #17 in control of their own destiny: If they win, they are in the playoffs (they can also get some help with a surprise loss). Fortunately, they look to face little resistance from the Steelers, who will be taking a much needed week of rest after losing their bye week due a series of unfortunate COVID events this season. Mason Rudolph will find himself under center and facing Myles Garrett, who blasted him with Rudolph's own helmet at the end of last year's Week #11 game. In that contest, Rudolph was sacked four times and was intercepted another four times, a performance that is certainly subject to being repeated with Pittsburgh resting most of their key offensive pieces in advance of a potential playoff run.

TOURNAMENTS

Quarterbacks: With a series of cheap receivers who will go overlooked by the DFS community, Justin Herbert is a solid tournament quarterback option this weekend. Herbert's $7K+ salary will scare many away, particularly after last week's slow-paced dud against the Broncos, but he can easily be stacked with Mike Williams, Jalen Guyton, Tyron Johnson, and/or Donald Parham without extraneous opportunity cost. The biggest question surrounding Herbert's upside is whether Chad Henne can keep the Chiefs offense relevant for four full quarters and thereby keep Herbert involved throughout the game. In Indy, Philip Rivers is intriguing as a leverage play away from the popularity of Jonathan Taylor. Rivers has an array of receiving weapons, all of whom are relatively affordable and low-rostered, an attractive combination when juxtaposed against Jonathan Taylor likely being on a quarter of all tournament lineups. Moving north to Foxborough, Cam Newton gets a nomination largely because of Jakobi Meyers (more on him below). Newton is all but assured to be playing somewhere else next season and he will want to leave a positive impression for any team considering him for 2021; if Cam had his choice of teams from which to play this final game, you have to believe that the Jets would be at the top of that list. Lastly, Drew Lock may be my favorite tournament quarterback this week against the Raiders. The Broncos have struggled to put points on the board over the past month, but they have come up against some of the league's best defenses in that time including the Bills, Chargers, Saints, and Dolphins. The sledding is easier this Sunday against the Raiders' 28th-ranked DVOA defense that has allowed two or more passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks in six consecutive games. Overall, this is an excellent game for tournaments and you should look at multiple ways to gamestack it with Lock, Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, Noah Fant, and Raiders' run-back options (Josh Jacobs and/or Darren Waller).

• Sleeper: Save Ryan Tannehill and an outlier performance against Lamar Jackson, the Indianapolis Colts have allowed 300+ passing yards in 7 consecutive games leading into Week #17. This bodes well for Mike Glennon and his arsenal of undervalued receivers for tournament purposes. D.J. Chark will miss this contest, as will James Robinson, which means that Glennon could be asked to shoulder the load with a combination of Keelan Cole (see below), Laviska Shenault (see above), and Chris Conley. Glennon has 200+ yards in every start this season and could easily surpass 300 passing yards if the Colts put up points early in this contest. Rolling with a Glennon-Cole (or Shenaut) stack at low percent-rostered enables one to go chalky with more expensive pieces (i.e., Derrick Henry, Davante Adams, etc.) elsewhere, if that is the route you wish to take.
• Fade: To be fair, Ryan Tannehill is not a "bad" DFS play this weekend, but the percent-rostered projections at the quarterback position are relatively well-distributed and he represents the worst play of an otherwise evenly distributed pool. Tannehill has just 1 game out of his previous 10 contests where he has surpassed the magical 300 passing yards needed to get the 3-point bonus on DraftKings. Meanwhile, rostering Tannehill in stacks is somewhat prohibitive when considering that both A.J. Brown and Corey Davis are priced above $6K (Jonnu Smith is the cheaper, more attractive option, if you must). Feel free to get a few shares of Tannehill, mostly as leverage away from Derrick Henry chalk, but err on the side of caution for the reasons outlined.