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We dropped our first set of projections a day after the NFL draft concluded, and have updated them countless times since. But as we enter the heart of the preseason, rankings and projections start to move more decisively with greater velocity and so this year I'll be providing a weekly look into how my projections are changing. A few things to keep in mind:
- This is a recap of a week's worth of changes, but we update projections in real time and you can always find live, up-to-date numbers here
- After 20+ years of providing rankings and projections, I've found that incremental movements are generally better than wholesale, reactionary moves
- This was an unusually quiet week by NFL standards, with no significant (i.e., season-threatening) injuries to fantasy-relevant players
- Expect subsequent updates to be more demonstrative, as camp battles clarify and injuries mount
- Many of the tweaks below pertain to players who aren't likely to be drafted in 10- or 12-team redraft leagues, but I felt it was important to show you the depth we provide in our analysis
|Carson Wentz||IND||330||520||63.5%||7.1||3,710||23||12||28||45||185||4.1||2||5||291||Up 10% on speedier recovery|
A very quiet week for quarterbacks, which is a great thing. Wentz's projections actually bump up after a significant reduction last week when it seemed he might miss a bunch of regular-season games. His outlook has improved and could be back for Week 1.
Running Back Ascenders
|Qadree Ollison||ATL||90||370||4.1||3||0||10||6||60.0%||50||8.3||-||66||Up 50%, emerging as No.2|
|Zack Moss||BUF||175||775||4.4||7||1||28||20||71.4%||140||7.0||1||159||+15 carries and small rec boost|
|Reggie Bonnafon||CAR||20||80||4.0||-||0||6||4||66.7%||20||5.0||-||14||Up 50%, pushing for No.2 role versus Hubbard|
|Mark Ingram II||HOU||120||490||4.1||5.0||1||18||12||66.7%||100||8.3||-||100||4x increase, listed as co-starter on depth chart|
|Rex Burkhead||HOU||30||120||4.0||-||0||5||3||60.0%||25||8.3||-||18||50% increase, seems likely to make roster|
|Jake Funk||LAR||40||160||4.0||1||0||11||7||63.6%||50||7.1||-||34||Added projections, likely No.3 RB|
|Xavier Jones||LAR||80||340||4.3||2||0||20||12||60.0%||90||7.5||-||67||Up 50%, settling into the No.2 role|
|Ty Johnson||NYJ||80||325||4.1||3.0||0||18||12||66.7%||75||6.3||1||76||Up 40%, splitting 1st team reps|
|Boston Scott||PHI||70||290||4.1||3.0||2||32||22||68.8%||195||8.9||2||99||Up 20% on clear No.2 role|
Zach Moss is the only redraft-caliber running back on the list, and it's worth noting he missed this weekend's preseason game with a new injury. Keep an eye on Mark Ingram II, who I assumed was the odd man out in Houston but was listed as the co-starter (alongside Phillip Lindsay) on the first depth chart.
Running Back Decliners
|Devin Singletary||BUF||145||650||4.5||3||1||53||38||71.7%||260||6.8||1||152||Minus 15 carries plus small rec reduction|
|David Johnson||HOU||100||430||4.3||3.0||1||42||30||71.4%||250||8.3||1||121||Down 40%, listed as No.3 on depth chart|
|Tevin Coleman||NYJ||80||360||4.5||2.0||0||11||7||63.6%||55||7.9||-||61||Down 20%, looks more like No.3 or 4|
|Lamical Perine||NYJ||45||175||3.9||1.0||0||10||7||70.0%||45||6.4||-||35||Down 50%, looks more like No.3 or 4|
|Kenneth Gainwell||PHI||15||70||4.7||-||0||12||6||50.0%||50||8.3||-||18||Deep reduction, not emerging as threat for snaps|
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