Sunday Morning Update
10:00AM EST: No Sunday update this week as it appears quiet on the injury front. Going with the primary cash lineup. Unless major news breaks, then check back in later this morning.
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SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
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- Tampa Bay (vs ATL) 32.25 points
- Cleveland (vs HOU) 30.25 points
- Seattle (vs Ten) 30 points
- LA Chargers (vs DAL) 29.25 points
- Arizona (vs Min) 27.25 points
CASH GAME STRATEGY WEEK 2
Don’t Overthink Yourself Or the Group
In cash games, the key is to find the best players in the best matchups at the lowest cost. There is a principle that you should use in cash games which is let the other players make the mistakes regardless of results. It is ok to take the one or two players that are going to be extremely popular instead of trying to convince yourself that you will get leverage against the competition by not playing those players.
Take this week, Najee Harris is going to be extremely popular at just $6,100 in salary. There’s a lot of reasons to like Harris this week, most notably that he was on the field for nearly 100% of the plays, is facing a favorable matchup in Las Vegas compared to the Buffalo matchup he had last week, and his price is too cheap.
However, there are still some negatives, that some people may talk themselves out of. The offensive line in Pittsburgh is the worst in the NFL as they let both David DeCastro and Alejandro Villanueva go in the offseason, Harris only saw three targets in the passing game, and averaged 2.8 yards-per-carry last week. There are other ways to differentiate yourself this week. If Harris has a big game, and you don’t play him, it is extremely likely that you will lose all of your contests. Meanwhile, if he does not have a big game, there is no guarantee that you will win all your contests.
Quarterback Decision
This is another week where the running back groupings for cash are pretty clear cut, but the outcome of this week is likely going to come out of ensuring that your quarterback is not a bust.
Contenders:
Kyler Murray- The hot hand. Everything looks great with Murray this season in his third year in this Kliff Kingsbury offense. The offense is absolutely loaded with talent with DeAndre Hopkins, AJ Green, Christian Kirk, Rondale Moore. One of the fastest quarterbacks in the league, and is the primary ball carrier in the Red Zone. Facing a Minnesota defense that is missing both of their star linebackers, which will be a devastating loss for them this week in trying to contain Murray on the ground.
Russell Wilson- Coming off of the loss of one of his best friends this week, how will Wilson perform? Is this going to be the spark that is going to get him and the Seahawks back to playing at an MVP level? Seahawks need more from DK Metcalf who has not topped 100 yards in his last 7 games and just once in his last 10.
Josh Allen- Looked sloppy in Week 1. Was last season a fluke, or did they just face a really good Steelers defense? Upside based on 2020 season is still likely the highest on the board. Allen is facing the Dolphins who are well coached, but did have a 417 yard 4 touchdown game against them in 2020. Allen is likely a better GPP play than he is a cash game play this week.
Dak Prescott- Looked outstanding against Tampa Bay, will be relied upon heavily to make up for the defensive issues against Dallas. The matchup is favorable with the Chargers losing Chris Harris for this game. The big questions for Dak are whether the mobility has returned coming off of the ankle injury, and whether he throws the ball 50+ times this week. Will the Cowboys go to a more balanced attack now that they are not facing the league’s best run defense.
Justin Herbert- Cheapest of the group, looked great against a Washington defense that may not be as good as we think based off of the Thursday Night performance against NY Giants. Herbert and the Chargers get an unbelievable matchup against the struggling Cowboys defense in what should be a shootout. Downside here is that limited mobility and no 300+ yard bonus on FanDuel really hurts Herbert’s upside.
Conclusion:
Kyler Murray is the play in cash this week. If you need to go down, you could go Dak, who has tremendous upside, but Ezekiel Elliott is making too much money not to be utilized heavily in neutral matchups. Totally understand why they did not utilize him against Tampa Bay’s vaunted defense, but expect Elliott to get back to 15-20 touches.
Value Rankings:
INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?
Josh Jacobs will miss this week with a toe/ankle injury. This will elevate Kenyan Drake to a great value play this week. The only concern is the matchup, but the Steelers looked beatable last week allowing 6.5 yards-per-carry to Devin Singletary. The Steelers are built to rush the passer and are one of the best units in football at stopping teams through the air, but against the ground they were league average allowing 4.3 yards-per-carry.
The Vikings defense is pretty banged up which should help Kyler Murray and the Arizona offense this week. The Vikings are missing Everson Griffen and linebackers Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr. The linebackers are crucial for this defense as they were likely going to be the key players responsible for spying on Murray.
Odell Beckham remains out as he is recovering from an ACL injury last season. While this may not be cash game relevant, it could open up opportunities for Anthony Schwartz and Donovan Peoples-Jones this week filling in for Beckham.
Michael Gallup will miss the next month with a calf injury. This opens up even more volume for Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb who saw a combined 31 targets in Week 1. Cedrick Wilson will also step in to take Gallup’s spot, but this is likely going to be a heavy dosage of both Cooper and Lamb.
KEY CASH CORE
Darren Waller- $7,000
This likely is the easiest player that we will take all season. $7,000 for Waller is a price that you just force yourself to take. Waller last week against Baltimore saw an incredible 19 targets in the Raiders Week 1 victory. Even if the matchup is a difficult one, the price is simply one that is far too cheap with the amount of value plays that are on the board at both the wide receiver and running back positions this week.
Chris Carson- $6,700
FanDuel’s pricing was good in Week 1, but honestly it is pretty terrible in Week 2. Carson looked great in Week 1, and although he didn’t score a touchdown, he still had 117 yards and 13.2 fantasy points against a difficult Colts defense. This week, he gets what should be a much easier matchup in Tennessee who could not stop Arizona seemingly in any facet of the game. The defensive line continues to be a major problem for the Titans, and it looks like Bud Dupree could miss this week as he is still recovering from a knee injury.
CeeDee Lamb- $6,800
CeeDee Lamb could be on the verge of having a breakout second season for the Cowboys. Lamb had 15 targets in Week 1, and while Amari Cooper did have 16 targets, he is significantly more expensive at $7,800. The Chargers are thin in the secondary which should open up plenty of opportunity for Lamb this week as Chris Harris will miss this week with a shoulder injury, and safety Nassir Adderley is questionable with a shoulder injury. Lamb could see a lot of Asante Samuel Jr who struggled mightily in Week 1 and looked like a guy who was not ready to start immediately in his rookie season.
Alvin Kamara-$8,800
Paying up for Kamara is something that historically hasn’t been done if you have been following this article for some time. The reason is that the Saints historically have had multiple other players to get the ball to which limited his floor compared to other running backs. This year, with Michael Thomas and Tre’Quan Smith out, and Latavius Murray cut, this is a Saints team that is built around Kamara. Kamara saw 23 touches last week, which he should be in line to do once again this week. He is facing a Carolina defense that really has struggled against the run since about 2018. Last season, the Panthers allowed 4.7 yards-per-carry, and were in the bottom-half of the league in terms of yards allowed per game (122). In the one game that Kamara had against the Panthers last year, he totaled 148 yards, while adding 8 receptions.
LINEUPS
SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 141.9)
- QB Kyler Murray, ARI, $8,700
- RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $8,800
- RB Najee Harris, PIT, $6,100
- WR- CeeDee Lamb, DAL, $6,800
- WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $6,200
- WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN, $5,500
- TE Darren Waller, LV $7,000
- Flex RB- Chris Carson, SEA, $6,700
- TD Cleveland Browns, $4,200
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Buffalo Stack (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 137.5)
- QB Josh Allen, BUF, $8,100
- RB Chris Carson, SEA, $6,700
- RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $8,800
- WR- CeeDee Lamb, DAL, $6,800
- WR Stefon Diggs, BUF, $7,500
- WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN, $5,500
- TE Darren Waller, LV, $7,000
- Flex RB- Najee Harris, PIT, $6,100
- TD NY Jets, $3,400
SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – Dallas LA Chargers GPP Game Stack(FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 137.0)
- QB Justin Herbert, LAC, $7,600
- RB Chris Carson, SEA, $6,700
- RB Najee Harris, PIT, $6,100
- WR- CeeDee Lamb, DAL, $6,800
- WR Keenan Allen, LAC, 7,400
- WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN, $5,500
- TE Darren Waller, LV, $7,000
- Flex RB- Alvin Kamara, NO, $8,800
- TD NY Jets, $3,400
PLAYER POOL
Projected points are static as of Saturday morning and will not be updated throughout the weekend. Green means great cash game play, yellow means should be in consideration in cash game lineups.
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