Divisional Round Games
- Saturday Slate:
- Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens - Over/Under 43.5 - Spread Ravens -9.5
- Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers - Over/Under 50.5 - Spread 49ers -9.5
- Sunday Slate:
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions - Over/Under 48.5 - Spread Lions -6.5
- Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills - Over/Under 45.5 - Spread Bills -2.5
Texans at Ravens
- Texans:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 15th
- Dropback EPA: 15th
- Rush EPA: 23rd
- Points per game: 22.2 (13th)
- Yards per game: 342.4 (12th)
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 15th
- Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 23rd
- Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 5th
- Points per game allowed: 20.8 (11th best)
- Yards per game allowed: 330.7 (14th best)
- Point Differential Ranking: +24 (12th)
- Offensive Rankings
- Ravens:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 5th
- Dropback EPA: 12th
- Rush EPA: 2nd
- Points per game: 28.4 (4th)
- Yards per game: 370.4 (6th)
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 7th
- Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 2nd
- Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 30th
- Points per game allowed: 16.5 (best)
- Yards per game allowed: 301.4 (6th best)
- Point Differential Ranking: +203 (1st)
- Offensive Rankings
Texans
C.J. Stroud ($6,700) has cemented himself as a superstar in the NFL. He ranked fourth in passing yards per game (274.6) and 13th in pass touchdowns per game (1.5) during the regular season and threw for 274 yards and 3 touchdowns with a 76.2% completion in his first playoff game last week. But he faces a much tougher test this week on the road against one of the best defenses in football. Get exposure to Stroud but do it through the weapons around him, not by playing Stroud himself.
Dameon Pierce has played just six total snaps over the past two games. Devin Singletary ($5,700) dominates this backfield. He has seen and handled 41 opportunities and touches over his past two games. Look for Houston to remain balanced as they have all season and try to attack a Ravens' run defense that is the unit's only weakness. Baltimore only ranked 30th in Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17.
Nico Collins ($7,100) is a star. He ranked 13th in receiving yards per game (78.7) in weeks 1-17, dropped a whopping 9-195-1 line on the Colts in Week 18, and put up 6-96-1 in his first-ever playoff game last week. Collins has a tough matchup here but he's Stroud's go-to guy and should see plenty of volume in a projected come-from-behind game script. With Noah Brown injured and out and Robert Woods total dust, John Metchie III ($3,400) and Xavier Hutchinson ($3,000) are in play as large-field tournament punt plays. Metchie is the clear favorite between the two as he played on 76% of the offensive snaps last week compared to Hutchinson's 43% of the snaps.
Dalton Schultz ($4,400) only caught one pass last week but it was a 37-yard touchdown. Look for Schultz to see more volume this week in a projected come-from-behind game script, making him an intriguing tournament play.
Ravens
Lamar Jackson ($7,900) is the favorite to win what would be his second MVP award. Jackson leads a 13-4 Ravens team dominating at just the right time if they can keep their positive momentum going into the postseason. Baltimore led the league in point differential (+203) during the regular season and Jackson led an offense that ranked sixth in both Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) and Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF) on his way to ranking fourth at the quarterback position in DraftKings fantasy points per game (22.3). He's at home in a decent spot here and is in the QB1 of the week discussion.
Mark Andrews is out once again. Focus on Zay Flowers ($6,000), Odell Beckham Jr (4,600), and Isaiah Likely ($4,700). Flowers dominated this Ravens team in targets (108), receptions (77), and receiving yards (858) during the regular season, picking up right where he left off in college by producing and performing at a very high level. We've seen Beckham perform at that level for years but he's now on the tail end of his career. A part-time player during the regular season, the Ravens were likely at least saving him a bit for the postseason. Be bullish on Beckham's playing time spiking into the 60%ish range on Saturday. Likely is a talented player who hasn't seen extreme volume without Andrews in the lineup but he's a big play threat who has caught five touchdowns over his past five games.
The running game is almost a total stay-away with Dalvin Cook ($4,000) potentially being added to the mix. Justice Hill ($4,800) is utilized a bit as a receiver but only averaged 7.5 opportunities per game during the regular season. Gus Edwards ($5,900) averaged more opportunities per game (12.6) but he doesn't catch many passes. He does possess the trump card though: touchdowns. Edwards' 13 touchdowns were the sixth most during the regular season. Edwards is in play in large field tournaments and that's it.
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