Dynasty Rankings Movement, Week 15

Photo: Robert Deutsch, USA Today Sports

The fantasy regular season is over, and that allows for a brief moment of reflection. What move impacted your fantasy season, and what lessons did you learn from it? Footballguys has you covered on movement within dynasty rankings heading into Week 15.

Question: What is one move (trade, draft pick, waiver) this year that altered your dynasty season? What did you learn?

Andy Hicks

In the staff Dynasty League, pickings were slim on the rookie front by the time we got to the fourth round. Sitting there were late-round draft picks in the 2023 draft and free agents. One of those free agents was Raheem Mostert. The Rams rookie duo Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams were available, but Mostert became my pick. That pick has worked well, so I am in the playoffs with a high seed.

The lesson is that we need to examine available free agents compared to the rookies in greater detail. In hindsight, the Dolphins had drafted a rookie prospect, De'Von Achane, who was injured. The early reports weren't flattering. Mostert was worth a shot and more. Scrutinizing NFL rosters is an essential first step. Not overvaluing rookies who stand little chance of contributing in their first two seasons is a second step. I do not wish to disclose some of the players taken before Mostert, but several have contributed absolutely zero this year and may not even be on NFL rosters next year. A defense was taken in a league where a dozen defenses sit on the waiver wire weekly.

Craig Lakins

In my main league, my team has lost in the championship game each of the last two seasons. We're getting close to Jim Kelly's Buffalo Bills territory. With another strong roster, I needed to make a move that put me over the top. Ahead of Week 5, the Christian McCaffery manager put him on the trade block, and I knew it was time to pounce. I acquired him for a package consisting of Gabe Davis, Alexander Mattison, Rhamondre Stevenson, and my 2024 1st and 2nd-round rookie picks.

After making that move, I reeled off nine straight wins and clinched a bye week for this week's wild-card round. It reinforced the idea that the best dynasty teams should focus on building the best starting lineup possible. I can get too caught up in my team having bench depth. It's nice to have players that can fill holes in your starting lineup now and then, but nothing can replace the high-end potential of someone like McCaffrey.

Ryan Weisse

I am embarrassed to admit that I traded Travis Kelce away for peanuts in the preseason and will be haunted by the move forever. However, I learned two key lessons, and none have anything to do with Kelce. I made the trade because my roster was old and needed new blood. This season was the dynasty's fourth year, and I built the team to win in 2019/20 by trading most (read: all) of my future picks. I performed terribly in 2022, and the team needed a rebuild. So, in pure stupidity, I traded Kelce for George Pickens, Khalil Herbert, David Njoku, and Hunter Henry. I could justify why I thought these players would break out, but this is already too long. It was a bad trade. Lesson #1: Don't trade an elite asset for four unproven assets because "You have a feeling!" At least get some draft picks back. Lesson #2 is far worse: Always pay attention to the state of other teams in your league. Four other teams were also tanking, and by midseason, it was clear I could contend. I ended up buying at the trade deadline and made the playoffs. I have a chance to win the championship, but my odds would be infinitely better if I had Travis Kelce.

Chad Parsons

In a stock 1QB PPR format, I traded a 2024 1st and 2nd for Patrick Mahomes II. The team was a fringe playoff team at the time (two games to go) and had struggled at quarterback all year after Tom Brady retired. We are talking Mac Jones, lesser options, and the clear weakest position on the roster. I usually address quarterback in 1QB formats as cheaply as possible by going after Kirk Cousins or that ilk for a future 3rd or a late 2nd, etc. With those options exhausted during the season, I made this trade for Mahomes to truly fix the position. The team made the playoffs and now has a chip and chair to win the title and/or finish in the money. Mahomes fixes the position for the long term at the cost of a mid (or later) 1st. Especially in a class lacking running backs, the pick projects as a wide receiver, Brock Bowers, or a rookie quarterback. Give me Patrick Mahomes II.

Will Grant

I waited too long to trade Dalvin Cook, and now I'm stuck with a guy who isn't producing enough to start. So, I decided to part ways with Derrick Henry this year for Marvin Mims and some draft capital. However, I underestimated how much Henry had left in the tank, and the team I traded him to finished #2 in total points. The draft capital I expected is now much worse than I hoped - especially if the other team wins the championship. The story's moral (for me) is straight out of Ted Lasso: "Be a Goldfish" - be sad for a moment and then forget your mistake and move on.

Jason Wood

I've learned from the mistake of prioritizing positions of need in rookie drafts over the years. Two seasons ago, I consciously decided to change my approach and started drafting the best player available, even if it meant selecting a player in a position where I already had strength. This strategy has proven successful in my two longest-running leagues.

In one league where I currently hold a 10-4 record, I opted for Nico Collins despite having substantial depth at receiver and a lack of depth at running back. This decision paid off, as reaching for one of the late-round rookie running backs would have made it challenging for me to make the playoffs.

In another league, the situation was reversed. Running back was a position of strength, but receiver presented a problem. Drafting third, I seized the opportunity to select Jhamyr Gibbs as soon as the No. 2 pick was Jaxon Smith-Njigba. This decision has also proven successful, as Gibbs has performed exceptionally well. Additionally, I was able to trade some veteran running back depth for assistance at receiver before the trade deadline.

Dan Hindery

In April, I traded a third-round rookie pick and Davis Mills for Brock Purdy, massively upgrading my QB3 in a Superflex league. Very few of my Superflex dynasty teams made it through the entire season having both starting quarterbacks healthy. The teams with a strong QB3 on the roster are the ones that survived. I had several teams that struggled due to injuries to guys like Joe Burrow, Anthony Richardson, or Kirk Cousins. The lesson is to always focus on building quality depth that you believe in. So many star players have missed significant time this season; it felt like depth was tested more than ever. Rosters that were top-heavy with strong starters but weak depth had down years, while deeper teams with fewer elite players thrived.

Quarterback Movement

Jake Browning, Cincinnati

Andy Hicks: Browning has not been an overnight success. He joined the Vikings as an undrafted free agent in 2019. After two years on the Minnesota practice squad, a similar role with the Bengals lasted for two more years until winning the backup role behind Joe Burrow. After a four-year apprenticeship, he has shown himself worthy of starter consideration in future years elsewhere. He will play the year out as a starter and is a great dynasty stash.

Chad Parsons: Browning's first three starts have been historically strong in passer rating, completion rate, yards-per-attempt, and success rate. At a minimum, Browning projects as a long-term QB2, but there are avenues to his 2023 showing, fueling a future Week 1 starting opportunity somewhere. Browning was dynasty-irrelevant before the season and is now a valid top-40 dynasty quarterback until the 2024 rookies are added to the mix.

Jason Wood: Browning is one of several backup quarterbacks making a significant impact this year. While displacing a healthy Joe Burrow is impossible, his early performance has set him on a path toward a lengthy NFL career as a backup, at worst. Given that over one-third of NFL teams start their backups in a season, Browning should be rostered in any deep dynasty league, especially in Superflex formats.

Brock Purdy, San Francisco

Andy Hicks: Purdy has become more than a game manager over the latter half of the season. Five of his last six appearances have more than 295 passing yards. In that time, he has had 14 touchdowns and only four interceptions. He is now one of the best fantasy quarterbacks. He deserves to move up in the rankings.

Craig Lakins: Purdy sits at number 13 in my dynasty quarterback rankings, but it's time for him to crack the top 10. I've been reluctant to give him that much credit as he's more of a distributor than a playmaker. Though for fantasy purposes, it might not matter. He's the QB5 on the season while playing in an offensive system synonymous with fantasy production. He might be the exact fit to run Kyle Shanahan's offense effectively. If they're married in San Francisco for the next 8-10 years, Purdy could be one of the safest picks in dynasty leagues.

Ryan Weisse: It wasn't a big jump, but it was time for me to put some respect on Brock Purdy's name. Like many others, I wasn't sure what to make of Purdy as a rookie. He burst onto the scene, but could he keep it up, and would it translate to fantasy success? He's the QB5 on the season and has put up some great games yet again. With the weapons at his disposal, Purdy belongs in my Top 12.

Will Grant: Since returning from the Week 9 bye, Brock Purdy has been on fire. He is averaging 11.26 YPA with a 73% completion rate, 1,520 passing yards, and 13 touchdowns against just two interceptions. The 49ers now have two impressive wins over Dallas and Philadelphia and are the favorite to win the Super Bowl. Purdy has an impressive group of weapons on offense and knows how to spread the ball to keep opponents guessing. Purdy is only 24, with a long NFL career ahead of him. In a 'draft from scratch' league - he is a guy you can confidently build a team around.

Joshua Dobbs, Minnesota

Will Grant: Just like that - all the talk of Dobbs being the future quarterback of the Vikings is over. Since week 10, Dobbs has averaged just over 6 yards per attempt with a 62% completion percentage and just 737 yards passing with three touchdowns and five interceptions. The Vikings have already named journeyman Nick Mullens this week and probably some form of committee for the rest of the season. Dobbs is only under contract for this season, and if he plays in the NFL next season, it will be as a backup quarterback on his seventh team in six years.

Tommy Devito, NY Giants

Jason Wood: Similar to Browning, DeVito, starting for the Giants, was expected to turn one of the league's worst teams into the ultimate doormat. The Giants' offense was at the bottom of the league standings with Daniel Jones, so how would a third-string free-agent rookie keep the team afloat? Yet, DeVito has done more than that, handily outperforming Jones' metrics this year and leading the Giants to multiple victories. While he may not profile as a future starter, he has earned himself millions as a credible QB2 for years to come.

Daniel Jones, NY Giants

Jason Wood: Suffering a season-ending injury and witnessing the team's shift from the league's worst offense to a middle-of-the-pack unit with an undrafted rookie quarterback puts a dent in Jones' long-term future. The Giants may move on from Jones this offseason or by 2025 at the latest.

Josh Allen, Buffalo

Dan Hindery: It remains close, but Allen moves up to the top spot in my dynasty quarterback rankings. He is outscoring Patrick Mahomes II by a whopping 5.1 fantasy PPG this season. Allen has a narrow lead over Jalen Hurts for fantasy QB1 overall in 2023. If he holds on, it will be the third time in four seasons that Allen has finished the year as QB1. If Allen had averaged an extra 0.5 fantasy PPG in 2022, he would be wrapping up his fourth straight QB1 overall season.