The fantasy football season is over, which means we need a playoff contest to use everything we've learned this season to prove our acumen. Luckily, the NFFC has us covered with their "Footballguys.com Mini Playoff Hold'em" contest. Like all playoff contests, it requires a combination of picking the best fantasy scorers and predicting the winners of playoff games to take home the $50,000 first prize (on a $50 entry, with a maximum of 4000 entries!). There's also a higher entry/higher first prize version at NFFC. The rules are somewhat straightforward, save for a twist that will reward the most forward-thinking entries.
Rules and Scoring (Read this before going on!)
Let's consider what a perfect Week 1 lineup for this four-week contest would look like.
Step 1: Consider the Multiplier
Player production will be multiplied by the number of weeks they have been in your lineup. That makes it easy to have two "free squares" - the highest-scoring player from each team you think will end up in the Super Bowl. Baltimore and San Francisco are the strongest pair of #1 seeds we have seen in a while, so it will be difficult to avoid Lamar Jackson and Christian McCaffrey as your first two players. With two quarterbacks in the lineup and six-point pass touchdowns, it's reasonable to consider Brock Purdy over McCaffrey if you are worried about McCaffrey's calf injury. Even if you don't think the Ravens and 49ers will end up in the Super Bowl, you should still put your top-ranked player from both teams in your lineup. The alternative is to play someone from every team in action on wild-card weekend, but then your Ravens/49ers from divisional weekend will only count 1x instead of 2x, and then if the teams go on, your multiplier will still lag behind other entries. Your top player from your actual Super Bowl picks (assuming it's not Baltimore/San Francisco) unless you take up both quarterback spots with your BAL/SF picks, then your second choice from your Super Bowl picks will be in your Wild Card lineup.
Bottom Line: Lamar Jackson and Brock Purdy/Christian McCaffrey should be in your Wild Card weekend lineup even though they are not playing.
Step 2: Eliminate the Suck
If we have two non-scoring players in our 12-player Wild Card weekend lineup and can only have a maximum of one player per team, we'll have to exclude two teams from our Wild Card weekend lineup. Since all of the players on teams that advance will be worth 2X their points in the divisional round - if you don't replace them with another player on a Super Bowl pick to try to set up 3X Super Bowl points for them - you probably want to avoid the teams that are most likely to lose on Wild Card weekend. Based on Las Vegas lines, the Pittsburgh Steelers are the biggest underdog, and they will be playing in windy conditions, so we would really only consider Najee Harris anyway. Let's assume that we won't include a Steeler. The next biggest underdog is the Packers. Aaron Jones and Jayden Reed have been playing well, so even in a lopsided loss, they could be valuable as Wild Card weekend plays. They wouldn't carry a 2X multiplier into the divisional round, but we will be able to replace players who lost with players who will be in action during the divisional round when we can now put as many as two players from any team in our lineups. So, at a minimum, we will probably be putting in one more 49ers and our favorite Raven who isn't named Lamar Jackson. Maybe a Packer should be in consideration, but we can't fully evaluate that until we start filling out our lineup.
Bottom Line: Don't choose any Steelers, and don't choose a Packer unless they have a very compelling outlook.
Step 3: Pick Your QB2
It's possible that you could put Purdy and Lamar Jackson in your two quarterback spots, betting on a BAL/SF Super Bowl and a Christian McCaffrey re-injury. Let's assume for a second that you're going with Jackson and McCaffrey; who is going to be your QB2? If we go strictly by highest-scoring potential for the week, Joe Flacco at Houston, Jalen Hurts at Tampa Bay, and either Matthew Stafford or Jared Goff look like strong plays. If you go by chances of getting to the Super Bowl and carrying a 4X multiple, then Josh Allen and Dak Prescott emerge to the front of the pack. With Allen likely to play in severe wind conditions against Pittsburgh, this becomes easy, even though it means you can't put CeeDee Lamb in your Wild Card week lineup. The six-point pass touchdown scoring makes it more palatable to take Prescott over Lamb.
Bottom Line: Unless you don't have a quarterback playing on Wild Card weekend, Prescott should be in your lineup.
Step 4: Choose Your RB2 and RB3
Let's assume for a moment that McCaffrey is your RB1. What about those other two spots? We've already eliminated Najee Harris, and we have Aaron Jones potentially in, even though we expect him to lose because we'll be replacing some Wild Card weekend picks with Ravens and 49ers.
Who else deserves a mention? James Cook should lead the Bills backfield in touches, as will Devin Singletary in Houston, Isiah Pacheco in Kansas City, and probably De'Von Achane in Miami on the AFC side. On the NFC side, D'Andre Swift, Rachaad White, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Kyren Williams would be options. It's easy to pick Williams, who has a reasonable chance of staying in our lineup with a 2X multiplier in the divisional round, and we're only forgoing one of what has been a three-wide attack for the Rams. One potential angle is taking Gibbs and ensuring that you'll have a 2X back to go along with McCaffrey next week. On the AFC side, if you have a strong lean in the MIA/KC game, maybe the lead back for that team should be your pick. Cook could be a strong pick if the Bills return to short passing in the wind and lean on the running game. That's my pick since the others force you to forgo better wide receiver options than Stefon Diggs in a windstorm.
Bottom Line: Kyren Williams should be your RB2. James Cook is my RB3, but players like Jahmyr Gibbs, De'Von Achane, Isiah Pacheco, and Rachaad White (especially if you're picking the Bucs over the Eagles) also deserve consideration.
Step 5: Deploy Your Wide Receiver Corps
The NFFC has done us the favor of folding wide receiver and tight end into one position. With Travis Kelce fading in the second half, there are really only two tight ends we'd consider here. David Njoku, who probably still isn't as good a play as Amari Cooper - although with Cooper nursing a heel injury, there's an argument for him - and Dallas Goedert, who should only be considered if both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are out. We won't slot any tight ends in our tentative lineup, and we won't go with Brown, who isn't going to be close to 100% if he does play.
That leaves us with a group of six presumptive WR1s to choose four from: Cooper, Nico Collins, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice, Mike Evans, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. St. Brown is the easiest call with Sam LaPorta limited at best and likely out. LAR/DET also has the makings of a shootout. Taking a combination of Cooper and Collins gives us high ceilings indoors and a guaranteed 2X multiplier for a divisional week wide receiver, plus a spot for CeeDee Lamb. The frigid weather makes Rice and Hill less attractive, but of the two, Rice is the one who misses the cut. There's a good case to be made for Evans against a struggling Eagles defense, but his quarterback is banged up. Even in the cold, Hill is my pick for WR4. The good news, if you are on the fence here, is that we have an RB/WR/TE flex spot to fill, which a wide receiver will almost certainly fill.
Bottom Line: St. Brown and Hill should be in your lineup. The other two wide receivers come from a limited group, and you'll only have to leave out one WR1 from the remaining viable teams when the flex position is factored in.
Step 6: Time to Flex
We still have Aaron Jones on the sidelines, and there is a strong case for him over Rice, Evans, or A.J. Brown/Dallas Goedert. If you pick the Bucs over the Eagles or the Chiefs over the Dolphins, then Evans or Rice make sense. With the uncertainty around Brown's condition and Jalen Hurts' finger, the Eagles option seems too dicey. Aaron Jones has been playing at a very high level and can also contribute as a receiver if the Packers fall behind. He's my flex pick.
Bottom Line: Your flex pick shouldn't be difficult, with only three teams left to pick from.
Step 7: Don't Forget Kicker and Defense
We're down to Kansas City, Tampa Bay, and Philadelphia and need a kicker and defense. Harrison Butker has been responsible for more points than any Chiefs offensive player over the last two games. Between the Eagles and Buccaneers, just pick the team you think will win. It's close, but I'm picking the Bucs, and they have more playmakers on defense than the Eagles.
Bottom Line: Your kicker and defense picks are more of a formality than anything to agonize over.
Wild Card Weekend Lineup
- QB1: Lamar Jackson, BAL
- QB2: Dak Prescott, DAL
- RB1: Christian McCaffrey, SF
- RB2: Kyren Williams, LAR
- RB3: James Cook, BUF
- WR/TE1: Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET
- WR/TE2: Amari Cooper, CLE
- WR/TE3: Nico Collins, HOU
- WR/TE4: Tyreek Hill, MIA
- FLEX: Aaron Jones, GB
- K: Harrison Butker, KC
- D/ST: Tampa Bay
I'll have to fill the DAL/GB loser, LAR/DET loser, KC/MIA loser, CLE/HOU loser spots, and potentially Cook or the Tampa D/ST if they lose at a minimum. Two of those spots will be an additional Raven and 49er, and the other two will likely go to second players from a team most likely to advance to the conference championship, and we're off! Good luck!
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