The Gut Check No.596: The 2023 Players We Trust Fantasy Team

Photo: Ron Chenoy, USA Today Sports

My Past As Jim Halpert

When I was in a sales office before The Office was born to the screen, me and my co-worker David and were the branch's Jim and Dwight. I was Jim, David was a cooler-southern-fried Dwight, and the pranks we played on each other rivaled many of what played out at Dunder-Mifflin's Scranton Branch.

Our fun extended to our fantasy league. One week when we faced off, we spent the morning buying a month's worth of groceries. Whoever lost our game had to foot the bill. We spent the afternoon at David's house, eating like bachelor kings during the Sunday games. Whenever the game or a highlight from another game came on screen, we trash-talked about how tasty victory was.

There are myriad avenues for enjoying this game. That's why I don't begrudge those of you who enjoy being — secretly or openly — fantasy football drama queens.

Many of you love the angst and drama of buying into high-risk players. It's a (hopefully) temporary diversion from whatever drama or angst in your real life that's a part of your real life. Boom-bust options are often the most appealing to veteran fantasy GMs with a tolerance for high-risk investments, novice GMs chasing the magic beans that they subconsciously believe will lead them to glory, and GMs who don't know themselves well enough to stay away from players that generate a lot of angst for them.

That's why last week, I profiled 10 players with notable boom-bust profiles for the 2023 season. This week, I'm going the opposite route and looking at the players with the safest fantasy profiles, also known as...

The Jon Snow/Samwise Gamgee Team: Players We Trust

With this reference, Matt, are you sure you weren't the Dwight to your buddy David's Jim?

Fair question. My inner geek emerged in my mid-30s and it hasn't left.

The Jon Snow/Samwise Gamgee team are reliable-trustworthy players who get the job done — often surmounting conditions that seem impossible for good things to happen. They often lack the sizzle of other players whose profiles espouse the potential for domination and do it with flash. Still, Snow and Gamgee types rarely let you down and usually help you outlast the flavors of the month.

I'm not including the current ADP's top 20 players on the team. Most players earn that value because they have a track record of production and reliability. I profiled some of the notable exceptions last week.

If were to include some names from the top 20, Nick Chubb, Patrick Mahomes II, Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, and Travis Kelce would be my top-five trustworthy options based on athletic ability, technical skills that afford them great opportunities, and productive track records with a range of good/not-so-good supporting casts.

Let's look at players who aren't in this exclusive club.

WR Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints

• Current ADP: WR14 (29th overall)
• Matt's Ranking: WR11 (25th overall)

Projected Statistics:

• 135 targets
• 90 receptions, 1,300 yards, and 7 touchdowns
• 262 Fpts (PPR)

Why Olave is Trustworthy: It's only Olave's second season in the NFL, and he's playing with his third quarterback. Usually, that's not a good sign. Yet, it's unusual for a rookie wide receiver to begin his pro career with 72 catches and 1,042 yards in 15 games working with two journeymen quarterbacks behind an injury-riddle offensive line.

Considering the contrasting styles of Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton, it's clear that Olave's route running makes him a great fit for any veteran quarterback. What's most important for Olave's value is that the scheme remains the same. Derek Carr is an upgrade from last year's passers, and Olave told the media this summer that he's far more comfortable with the offense and has been working with Carr to accelerate their rapport.

My projections for Olave are closer to his ceiling than his floor because even if I'm the resident optimist at Footballguys about Michael Thomas returning to form after a lengthy bout of foot problems, there's still a baseline of pessimism that he makes it through the year intact. If Thomas returns to form, consider Thomas the bully on the block who draws the best coverage away from Olave in the same manner A.J. Brown and Justin Jefferson will do the same for DeVonta Smith and Jordan Addison.

The big difference is that Olave doesn't need Thomas to do this because he has the ability of a true primary threat. In theory, Thomas' return to form could slightly depress Olave's production compared to my valuation for 2023. However, I'd expect no worse than the same low-end fantasy WR2 value that we saw last year.

It's also possible that Thomas stays healthy and produces but becomes the secondary option to Olave while the rest of the Saints' weaponry of Rashid Shaheed, Jimmy Graham, Foster Moreau, Alvin Kamara, and Juwan Johnson create enough binds that opposing defenses can't cheat toward Olave without paying dearly.

Either way, Olave is an excellent technician with underrated ability at the catch point who has a fantasy WR2 floor and an elite WR1 ceiling that's superior to Smith and Tee Higgins, who are picked in the same range and usually ahead of him. If I'm picking in a serpentine format in the range of 1.01-1.04, I'd roll with a running back like McCaffrey or Ekeler and use my round 2/3 turn to grab two of OIave and either Jaylen Waddle, DK Metcalf, Smith, or Higgins. Better yet, grab Olave and either Waddle, Metcalf, or Amari Cooper (see below).

That feels safe.

QB Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

• Current ADP: QB4 (34th overall)
• Matt's Ranking: QB5 (59th overall)

Projected Statistics:

• 17 games
• 584 attempts, 402 completions, and a 68.8 percent rate.
• 4,708 passing yards, 36 TDs, and 13 INTs.
• 63 rushing attempts, 188 yards, and 3 TDs.
• 403.2 Fpts (PPR)

Why Burrow is Trustworthy: Burrow has missed time in training camp before, but it hasn't hurt his in-season performance. Calf injuries can prove difficult, but it happened early enough in the preseason that he should be in good shape for the opener.

Blessed to play with two excellent outside receivers, a savvy slot option, and a good running back with pass-catching skill, the Bengals' shot on Irv Smith seems superfluous for Burrow's fantasy value relative to how much weight other teams' hopes would carry for the underachieving tight end to get it together. If it works out, Burrow could be in for a 5,000-yard, 40-touchdown season. If not, ho-hum, write down another 4,500-4,600 yards and 35 touchdowns.

Burrow's an excellent young field general. He reads and manipulates defenses like a wizened veteran, his pocket management is elite, he's mentally tough, and he's creative outside of the play design's structure.

If I'm at the round 3-4 turn and Burrow is still on the board as currently expected, I'm seriously considering him and one of Jahmyr Gibbs or Amari Cooper (see below). I tend to wait until rounds 8-12 to take my quarterbacks because I always of 3-4 options I value in that range who perform well enough that their value plus the value of the option I took instead of the early-round quarterback is a net advantage.

If your aim is to play it safe in your drafts and pick players with high floors and high ceilings, Burrow may not have the flash of Jalen Hurts or Lamar Jackson, but his supporting cast is comparable, and his yardage upside as a passer gives him a similar ceiling. Burrow doesn't have the arm talent of Patrick Mahomes II or Josh Allen, but he's in their tier as a decision-maker and accurate thrower.

WR Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns

• Current ADP: WR17 (38th overall)
• Matt's Ranking: WR10 (23rd overall)

Projected Statistics:

• 17 games
• 140 targets, 82 receptions, 1,190 yards, and 10 TDs.
• 261 Fpts (PPR)

Why Cooper is Trustworthy: Last year, Cooper had a career year in receiving yardage and touchdowns and did it in a new system with Jacoby Brissett and a rusty Deshaun Watson as his quarterbacks. He's earned at least 100 targets, 75 catches, 1,000 yards, and 7 touchdowns in 5 of his past 6 seasons and has only fallen below 1,000 yards in 2 of his 8 years as a pro — both due to injury.

He's one of the 20 best route runners in the, still has deep speed, and the Browns' passing game should be sharper in 2023. Compared to his peers at his current ADP, Cooper is a more accomplished and reliable technician than Deebo Samuel, faster and more durable than Keenan Allen, and will be the clear-cut primary threat, unlike DeAndre Hopkins and Calvin Ridley.

Jahmyr Gibbs and Lamar Jackson could have huge years. But if you're going the safe route in this range, Gibbs is unproven, and Jackson hasn't played a full season in two years. Ken Walker III is already hurt and has legitimate competition in the backfield for touches.

Cooper was fantasy football's PPR WR11 in 2022, and his quarterback will be sharper than last year. You're getting him at a one-round discount, which is significant this high up the board.