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Training camp and preseason isn't the best stage to evaluate quarterback play, especially for established starters, but we can learn about new directions and new additions for offenses, and of course, how rookies, new starters, and position battle participants fare and adjust accordingly. How have quarterback tiers changed since camp opened.
The Big Three
Josh Allen, BUF
Jalen Hurts, PHI
Patrick Mahomes II, KC
CONSIDER AT ADP: Allen, Hurts, Mahomes
The big three is still the big three, and the dropoff in fantasy ceiling still comes in the third round. So all three are still worth considering. Allen's outlook is a little brighter with first-round pick Dalton Kincaid looking ready for prime time and a big role in the offense, and Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty giving them more diverse depth at wide receiver. Hurts passing numbers could get a boost from D'Andre Swift getting more targets from the backfield. Our visions of Mahomes to Toney have been sidetracked, but at least Skyy Moore is developing, Richie James is looking like a savvy pickup, and Rashee Rice might be more ready to contribute than Moore was last year. Any of these quarterbacks are sound uses of a third-round pick in a typical redraft league, but you forgo the opportunity to take quarterbacks who could be closer to their production level than the ADP gap indicates…
Return to THE QB1?
Lamar Jackson, BAL
TARGET AT ADP: Jackson
It hasn't been a scalding hot summer for the new Ravens offense, but we have gotten confirmation that it is going to have a faster tempo, and with Rashod Bateman finally off of the PUP list, the promise of more three-wide sets is alive (and Nelson Agholor is a very experienced WR4). Jackson has the alluring possibilities that come with unknown upside. Planning on taking him a round after the big three sounds like a good strategy to me.
The Next Elite Fantasy Quarterback?
Justin Fields, CHI
TARGET AT ADP: Fields
Fields has had a good, not great camp by most accounts, but incremental improvement as a passer combined with having a true #1 in DJ Moore (who has had an outstanding camp by most accounts) could be enough to lift Fields to the elite fantasy quarterback tier. If you are worried about Jackson's durability or just miss out on him as QB4, Fields as QB5 is a good ticket to elite production at a discount from the big three.
STRONG QB1
Joe Burrow, CIN
Justin Herbert, LAC
Trevor Lawrence, JAX
CONSIDER AT ADP: Herbert, Lawrence
AVOID AT ADP: Burrow
Burrow's ADP has fallen slightly behind Fields, and Herbert is gaining on him. Burrow has been working out on the side to show that his groin injury is no big deal, but he doesn't offer the growth potential of Herbert or Lawrence. Plus, it's probably still a good policy to avoid players with multi-week absence injuries in camp unless their ADPs fall significantly because of it. Burrow's hasn't. Herbert should get a boost from new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore having a more aggressive approach than previous OC Joe Lombardi (who doesn't?), and he could equal or eclipse Burrow as a fantasy quarterback but probably lacks the rushing production to join the elite. Lawrence is going a round or so after Herbert. The addition of Calvin Ridley certainly gives him the chance to make a leap to the Herbert/Burrow scoring level, but the offensive line is a question mark. Also, the Jaguars have the backfield to go ground and pound when they want to, so Lawrence's ADP feels just right. Herbert and Lawrence are viable Plan A players at quarterback, but unless Anthony Richardson's ascent climbs into the 50s-60s of drafts, he's probably the superior, if riskier choice at ADP.
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