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Camps have closed, and a lot of the meaningful preseason action has already taken place, so we can take stock of what we've learned at wide receiver and review the tier breaks and who stands out when compared to ADP. The reality is that there haven't been too many changes to value in the receivers going in the top 50 of drafts - which is a good thing because that means there haven't been any significant injuries. Further down the board, we can discern some players who are building steam and others who haven't taken advantage of opportunities in camp. Let's run it down:
THE BIG FOUR
TARGET AT ADP: Jefferson, Chase, Hill
AVOID IN TOP 5: Kupp
Not much has changed here. Jefferson is still rightfully the clear #1. It looks like Joe Burrow should be ready for Week 1, and his injury doesn't seem worrisome enough to get us off of Chase at #2. Hill could be even better in year two in Miami and deserves the #3 spot because Kupp has a hamstring injury serious enough to sideline him for all of camp and the preseason. The absence could be mostly precautionary, but there is a risk of re-injury, and it's just not comforting to take a player in the top three who is already hurt.
CONSIDER AT ADP: Diggs, Lamb, Brown, St. Brown, Adams, Wilson
This tier is also virtually unchanged from pre-camp. We can argue about the order, and perhaps Calvin Ridley and Chris Olave belong in this tier, but it's still a pretty clear picture of the best wide receiver options after the top four. The main question is not so much which wide receiver to take but whether to take one of these receivers or a top-tier running back at your late first/early-mid second-round pick. The summer has been quiet for this group, save for some growing excitement around St. Brown and minor injuries to Adams and Wilson.
HIGH CEILING WR1/WR2
CONSIDER AT ADP: Waddle, Smith, Ridley, Olave, Jeudy
TARGET AT ADP: London, Moore
This group is also unchanged. They represent the most likely wide receivers to finish in the top 10 that are currently going outside of the top 10. Ridley and Moore have been everything their new teams wanted them to be when they traded for them. Olave and London look like second-year players ready to take their already impressive games to a new level. Jeudy looks like the #1 target for Russell Wilson. Waddle, Olave, and Smith are going in the second (Smith is a good pick if he falls to the third). Ridley is going to cost you an early third. Jeudy is a viable pick in the third but feels better in the fourth (as Dwain McFarland has said, the third round is not a great wide receiver round). Like Jeudy, London and Moore are solid fourth-round picks that you might need to reach for in the third if you don't like the running back options available, Mark Andrews doesn't fall farther than he should, and you don't want to take a quarterback yet.
HIGH CEILING WR2
TARGET AT ADP: Williams
CONSIDER AT ADP: Aiyuk
AVOID AT ADP: Metcalf, Watson
The only change here is that Jahan Dotson is more WR3/Flex than WR2, but he was being drafted as a WR3/Flex anyway. Metcalf has become even less attractive, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba showing why he was the first wide receiver drafted, and Watson has become less attractive, with rookies Jayden Reed and Luke Musgrave becoming quality middle-of-the-field targets for Jordan Love already.
HIGH FLOOR WR2
TARGET AT ADP: Lockett
CONSIDER AT ADP: Samuel, Allen, Godwin, Hopkins, Johnson
AVOID AT ADP: Higgins, McLaurin
The only significant movement here is Christian Kirk and Marquise Brown falling out of this tier. It's a generally unexciting group, but this tier does represent players that give you confidence that you at least aren't blowing the 3rd-5th round pick you spend on them. Lockett remains underrated. Samuel and Johnson have had good summers. Allen, Godwin, Hopkins, and Johnson should be reliable target hogs, although who knows what Baker Mayfield targets will be worth for Godwin. Higgins remains overrated. The Washington offensive line could inhibit McLaurin's deep game.
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