Rushing Matchups Week 18

Go here for this week's Passing Matchups.

Top 5 Rushing Matchups

Arizona vs Seattle

The Cardinals have consistently had strong performances from James Conner despite various challenging circumstances. Despite being part of a below-average offense and operating behind a subpar offensive line, Conner has surpassed the 70-yard mark in six out of his nine full games. His impressive 4.9 yards per carry ranks him fifth among qualifying rushers, showcasing his prowess even when compared to notable names like James Cook and Raheem Mostert. Coming off a stellar Week 17 display with 128 yards and a touchdown, Conner's ability to break tackles stands out in 2023, trailing only Jaylen Warren and Jahmyr Gibbs in broken-tackle rate. Against the Eagles and their porous defense, Conner's skill in navigating through opponents should be a significant asset. Anything less than 20 touches and 80-100 yards from Conner against the Seahawks would indeed be surprising.

Seattle has struggled significantly down the stretch of the 2023 season, losing five of their last seven games. A notable area of concern has been Pete Carroll's faltering run defense, allowing four of their last five opponents (and 9 of their last 11) to amass considerable rushing yards. Several individual runners have surpassed the 100-yard mark against them, highlighting the vulnerabilities of their front line. While Bobby Wagner and Jordyn Brooks have been standout performers at linebacker, the lack of playmaking support up front has hampered their effectiveness. The Seahawks' defensive line, often geared towards pass defense, has showcased weaknesses in stopping the run, making them one of the weaker run defenses in the league. Given these circumstances, James Conner appears poised for a strong showing against Seattle, potentially capitalizing on the favorable matchup regardless of the game script.

Dallas at Washington

The Cowboys' expectations for Tony Pollard in 2023 haven't been fully met. Initially a strong complement to Ezekiel Elliott, Pollard was expected to elevate to a top-tier running back. This has not been achieved this season. With only six out of sixteen games surpassing 60 yards on the ground and just four of the last fourteen games hitting that mark, Pollard's season as a lead back has been inconsistent. However, looking ahead to Week 18, his outlook seems promising. With Rico Dowdle still recovering from an ankle injury, Pollard maintains a dominant presence in the backfield. Moreover, benefiting from the league's second-best run-blocking line, Pollard is expected to exploit the struggling Commanders' defense.

Washington's run defense has unequivocally struggled, descending into the NFL's basement. Their Week 17 performance against the 49ers was lackluster, allowing Christian McCaffrey an easy 64 yards before his departure, after which backup Elijah Mitchell managed 17 rushes for 80 yards, including a touchdown. Recent weeks have seen the Commanders concede significant yardage to notable backs like Breece Hall, Kyren Williams, and Devon Achane. Even Tony Pollard, despite his performance struggles, achieved his second-highest rushing total of the year (79 yards and a touchdown) in their Week 12 encounter. The Commanders' defensive woes stem from fielding primarily special-teams and practice-squad caliber players in the front seven, lacking the impact of key defensive pieces like Chase Young and Montez Sweat, who were traded away at the trade deadline. The Commanders could be without Jonathan Allen this week as he is dealing with a knee injury that kept him out of Wednesday's practice, which would be a massive loss for the team. Additionally, top linebackers Cody Barton and Khaleke Hudson have struggled in both run and pass defense. Although a major defensive rebuild looms, that won't occur until the offseason, and the Cowboys are in a tremendous position to take advantage of the defensive issues for the Commanders this week.

Seattle at Arizona

The Seahawks have shifted away from their typical run-heavy strategy in 2023, as they are running the ball just 28th-most in the NFL at just 37.9%. The Seahawks have not produced a 100-yard rusher since Week 7. However, this upcoming week appears promising for their rushing attack. Game flow has been a significant factor in the Seahawks' ground game, with Ken Walker III averaging 10 carries for 39 yards in losses and 18 for 74 in wins. Entering Week 18 as a favorite in a must-win game, Walker faces the Cardinals, possessing one of the NFL's weakest front sevens. Given the earlier Week 7 victory against the Cardinals, where Walker excelled, threatening the 100-yard mark should be within reach.

The Cardinals' defense in 2023 has been marred by significant struggles, both against the pass and notably on the ground, which has reached near-historically poor levels. Leading the league in yards allowed on the ground at an average of 143.5 per game, they've conceded 100-yard rushing performances to eight different runners (with two more reaching 95 yards). Despite a standout performance in their Week 17 win, holding D'Andre Swift and the Eagles to just 91 yards on the ground, the overall lack of playmaking talent in their front seven remains a glaring issue. The absence of a true nose tackle and dependence on safeties Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson for linebacker play often leads to substantial gains, especially against explosive downhill runners like Ken Walker III. This defensive weakness could be exploited by the Seahawks in their critical Week 18 matchup.

New Orleans vs Atlanta

The Saints are likely to be without Alvin Kamara, who remains uncertain for Week 18 due to an ankle sprain. In a must-win game this week, it's unrealistic to expect Kamara's return from injury as he's not practicing on Wednesday or Thursday. If Kamara misses, veteran running back Jamaal Williams will likely assume a predominant role in the backfield, building on his 23-touch performance in Week 17. Williams might lack excitement, but securing such a substantial volume of touches at this stage of the season is a rarity. He has long been regarded as one of the league's most reliable backup options and excels particularly in goal-line situations.

On the other side, the Falcons, under the helm of Arthur Smith, have encountered difficulties both offensively and defensively throughout the 2023 season. Despite a strong start to the year, their recent defensive performances have been concerning. Over the last four games, they've allowed an average of 4.5 yards per rush, with multiple running backs surpassing 85 yards individually. Their Week 17 display was especially telling, as the Chicago Bears' Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson combined for 145 yards and 2 touchdowns on 25 attempts, with quarterback Justin Fields adding 45 yards and a score of his own. The Falcons are missing key linchpins like Grady Jarrett, and while veterans like Calais Campbell and David Onyemata contribute, the lack of supporting playmakers behind them has made their defense vulnerable. This aging defensive unit presents an enticing fantasy opportunity in Week 18.

Philadelphia at NY Giants

The Eagles have maintained a consistent emphasis on their ground game throughout the season, ranking among the top five teams in rushing volume. Heading into a pivotal matchup with their divisional hopes hanging in the balance, they're expected to heavily utilize D'Andre Swift, who has taken on a significant workload, handling around 73% of the running back carries as the starter. Swift has regularly received double-digit rushing attempts in 14 of his 15 starts, delivering over 60 yards in nine games. Although Jalen Hurts tends to vulture short touchdowns on the ground, it doesn't diminish Swift's promising outlook for Week 18. His usage makes him one of the safest bets, especially given the favorable matchup he'll encounter, complemented by an exceptional offensive line known for its superior run-blocking capabilities.

The Giants' brief resurgence earlier in the season feels distant as they conclude their 2023 campaign without a reliable quarterback and a persistently weak run defense, consistently ranked near the bottom of the league. Their defensive struggles against the run have been evident, with only three teams surrendering more rushing yardage. Virtually every featured running back facing the Giants has managed significant fantasy numbers. Recent matchups against backs like Josh Jacobs, Rhamondre Stevenson, D'Andre Swift, and Kyren Williams have resulted in near-season highs in rushing yards and touchdowns. The Giants' front seven lacks stability, mostly comprising journeymen who are unlikely to remain with the team in the upcoming season since their trade of Leonard Williams earlier this season. Facing these defensive deficiencies, the Eagles appear poised to finish their season on a strong note by capitalizing on the Giants' weaknesses to secure a positive end to their campaign.

Bottom 5 Rushing Matchups

NY Jets at New England

The Jets have shown a notable surge in ground production in their recent outings, recording 271 rushing yards over the past two games, a significant uptick from their average of 85.0 yards per game during the first 15 weeks of the 2023 season. However, closing their season against the Patriots presents a challenging task, particularly for Breece Hall, their primary rushing weapon. Bill Belichick's staunch defensive unit ranks second in the league against the run and demonstrated their dominance by limiting Hall to a mere 18 yards on 12 carries earlier in Week 3. Although this encounter occurred earlier in the season, the Patriots have consistently stifled opposing rushing attacks throughout the year. The Jets' struggling offensive line, ranked 30th in run-blocking, is expected to encounter difficulties against the formidable Patriots front, potentially hindering Hall's success. If Hall is to make an impact, it might require explosive plays in the open field, which are difficult to reliably predict against such a strong defense.

Despite the overall struggles faced by the Patriots in the 2023 season, their run defense remains a formidable force. Throughout the season, they have successfully contained strong running backs such as Saquon Barkley, Raheem Mostert, and James Cook, preventing any individual runner from surpassing 80 yards since Week 2. Notably, their defense has allowed the least yardage on the ground since that early period, displaying remarkable consistency in shutting down opposing rushing attacks. Led by stalwarts like Christian Barmore and Davon Godchaux, the Patriots deploy a deep and versatile front seven, combining dominance against the pass and the run. Barmore's emergence as a force, Godchaux's underrated contributions, and a rotation of skilled ends have anchored a group of hard-hitting playmakers. Additionally, the presence of Kyle Dugger, known for his impactful tackling and versatile playmaking, adds an unpredictable element to their defensive scheme.

Green Bay vs Chicago

Aaron Jones heads into Week 18 in impressive form, tallying 127 and 120 yards in his last two outings. However, projecting a continuation of this streak proves challenging considering his inconsistency this season, with six out of ten games falling below the 45-yard mark. A.J. Dillon's effectiveness has also waned since Week 11, registering only 3.3 yards per rush. Moreover, both running backs operate behind a Packers offensive line ranked 25th in run-blocking according to Matt Bitonti's metrics. As they typically do, Jones and Dillon will likely need to create substantial gains on their own, a tough task against the tenacious Bears' defense.

Although the Bears' run defense exhibited some inconsistency down the season's stretch, allowing significant yardage to the Lions and Bijan Robinson in Week 17, their overall performance in 2023 remains impressive. Ranking first in total yards allowed and fourth in yards per carry, the Bears showcased a dominant stretch midseason, stifling running backs like Josh Jacobs, Austin Ekeler, and Alvin Kamara to a combined 90 yards without touchdowns. Notably, the team strategically reconstructed their defense, bolstering their front line by pairing Montez Sweat with a cadre of seasoned run-stoppers. T.J. Edwards has emerged as a standout performer on the second level, spearheading a linebacking corps that excels in open-field situations and is rarely outmatched.

Minnesota at Detroit

The Vikings have recently turned to rookie running back Ty Chandler, taking over the primary role from Alexander Mattison, as Chandler has been on the field for 55% or more of the snaps in each of the last four games. Chandler showcased his potential with an impressive 23 carries for 132 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals. However, this newfound spark in the Vikings' backfield hasn't translated consistently, as evidenced by Chandler's underwhelming performances in his other three starts, where he managed just 35, 17, and 40 yards on the ground. Even in the recent matchup between these teams two weeks ago, Chandler and Mattison combined for a mere 16 yards on 10 attempts despite favorable game script conditions. As the 2023 season nears its end, the Minnesota offense appears to be concluding on a notably lackluster note.

Throughout the 2023 season, the Lions have maintained a consistent presence near the top of the league in run defense, a remarkable feat considering their significant improvement from 29th to 5th in this area. Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has placed a high emphasis on stopping the ground game, evident in their impressive record of not allowing a single running back to surpass the 70-yard mark all season, despite facing notable workhorses like Ken Walker III, Josh Jacobs, Alvin Kamara, and Tony Pollard. Rookie linebacker Jack Campbell, primarily tasked with containing the run, and hard-hitting safety Brian Branch, likely to secure an All-Rookie spot, have played crucial roles in bolstering the Lions' run-stuffing capabilities. The defensive scheme, centered around a nickel base and an assortment of contributors tracking the run across the field, proved effective in their recent encounter with the Vikings, limiting them to a mere 17 rushing yards in a closely contested game.

Carolina vs Tampa Bay

The Panthers experienced a late-season surge from Chuba Hubbard, who notably averaged 93 yards between Weeks 13 and 15. Among his impressive performances during that stretch was a standout game of 25 carries for 104 yards and two touchdowns against the Tampa Bay defense. Despite Hubbard's potential upturn, it's challenging for a running back to excel within a struggling offense, and Hubbard remains tethered to the league's weakest offensive unit. With limited room to maneuver and opposing defenses paying less attention to Bryce Young and Adam Thielen, Hubbard's touchdown opportunities are scarce.

The Buccaneers have resurged in their run defense, reminiscent of their dominant presence during their successful Super Bowl campaign in 2020. They ranked first in 2020 and third in 2021 but dropped to 15th last season before climbing back to sixth in this year (fifth in yards per carry). They've allowed only three opposing running backs to exceed 80 yards, further solidifying their prowess. Recent games have seen them stifle notable talents like Alvin Kamara (45 yards), Bijan Robinson (34 yards), and Travis Etienne Jr. (12 yards). Boasting one of the league's fiercest front sevens, the Buccaneers combine toughness with finesse, equipped to contain nearly any opponent. Despite a slightly off year for Vita Vea, his role as a space-eater in the middle remains critical, aiding in stopping ball carriers. Linebacker Devin White, while occasionally missing tackles, compensates with impressive speed, while stalwart Lavonte David continues to anchor the defense against the run. Although Hubbard found success against the Buccaneers in a previous matchup, the prospects for a similar outcome appear increasingly unlikely given the Buccaneers' recent defensive form.

Indianapolis vs Houston

The Colts are leaning heavily on Jonathan Taylor for their final playoff push in Week 18, especially with uncertainty surrounding Zack Moss' status. Taylor has shouldered a significant workload with 40 touches over the last two weeks, making Moss' availability less of a concern. However, closing the season against the Texans poses a challenge as they haven't allowed even a 60-yard rusher in the past two months. While Taylor (and possibly Moss) could see plenty of opportunities, projecting their efficiency against the Texans is a bit trickier.

The Texans have displayed a stout run defense throughout the 2023 season. Their performance in the past six weeks, especially, has been incredibly dominant. Despite facing high-caliber running backs like Travis Etienne Jr., Breece Hall, and Derrick Henry (twice), they've allowed an average of just 58.7 yards per game to opposing running backs, holding them to a mere 2.5 yards per carry and conceding only two touchdowns. This defensive resurgence, notably achieved with their star rookie quarterback sidelined, showcases a remarkable rally. Furthermore, their defense is regaining strength with breakout linebacker Blake Cashman's return (registering 19 tackles in his Week 17 comeback) and the potential availability of top tackle Maliek Collins for Sunday's matchup.