2023 Ultimate Fantasy Football Keeper Guide

Photo: Mark Hoffman, USA Today Sports

Planning is important. Major life events like weddings, college decisions, or fantasy football drafts require careful thought and preparation. No fantasy football format flips the predraft process like keeper leagues. Redraft formats offer a clean slate. Dynasty is the marriage of fantasy, together until death or trade to the Browns do us part. But keeper formats require a careful choice to extract maximum value.

Formats

The most often played format is a standard snake with the cost of the original round. The other most played format is a salary cap, with prior values representing keeper amounts.

Two key factors are used to keep leagues active and engaged: time limits and inflation.

A time limit will limit the number of times a player can be kept. Inflation will raise the price of keepers annually. A 20% - 40% - 80% step up per year works well for salary cap formats. Low-priced players hold value, while mid-tier values can get priced out quickly. For snake drafts, losing additional value rounds each year can accomplish the same thing.

A key for engagement in snake formats can be limiting the first round or two regarding keeper-eligible players.

Setting The Table

The most fun aspect of keeper leagues is increased trade potential. Redraft trades can be complex, often resulting from a difference of opinion on values or primary roster needs. Dynasty leagues rely on trades, but often, that comes down to a competitive life cycle. Rebuilding teams trading with contending teams.

Keepers bring an entirely different aspect. Because of the nature of keeper leagues, trade offers can easily help both sides. For example, you plan on keeping Dameon Pierce in the seventh round. Last year was rough; you have the first pick in round seven. Trade that 7.01 pick for the 7.12 pick and a later pick swap. You use the same round on your keeper but pick up value later in the draft. Meanwhile, your league mate can jump the line and go from 7.12 to 7.01.

Trades are also valuable ways to form keeper decisions. You may be looking at Nick Chubb in round three or Drake London in round seven. In a vacuum, you take Chubb heads up over London any time. But in this scenario, the deal becomes Chubb + a player like Odell Beckham Jr or London + someone like Jahmyr Gibbs—a more difficult decision.

Trades also work for consolidation. Have more players than the limit you think have keeper value? Look around your league and find your league mate without a clear, good option for their final keeper. These are the rare instances many are not predisposed to decline a two-for-one trade offer. This opportunity can allow you to capture significant value and set yourself up in the best position.

Play Your Board

Map your opponents. The top two or three keeper selections are easy to strike off. Occasionally, you will get something that surprises you, but for the most part, you can determine the level of value available.

Here is where Footballguys’ Draft Dominator is valuable. The software allows you to set up keepers for opponents for a mock draft in settings.

Mapping opponent's keepers give you a significant advantage, both in knowing who is off the board and in projecting the picks that will be made based on the talent available and team needs.

Who To Keep In 2023?

We can find players who changed value dramatically by utilizing Footballguys' ADP and 2022's ADP. This exercise will be an inexact science given the differences of every league but can give a good baseline for round-by-round evaluation.

Round 1

Round 1 keepers are complex due to the sacrifice of giving up an additional elite player. As difficult as it may be to give up Justin Jefferson if you have a late-1st-round pick, the trade-off in losing out on other elite players is often too much. Would you rather have Jefferson or CeeDee Lamb + a player like Garrett Wilson?

It does open up trade avenues. Have Jefferson and a late 1st round pick? It is unlikely you’ll have him back. But you can find a league-mate struggling for keeper choices and a selection that will not see them end up with Jefferson. Flip him to gain value in draft capital later, and there is no negative impact.

Round 2

Round 2 was rough last year, with landmines galore. Lamb, Barkley, and Hill were the only players to gain ADP value. Hill is an exciting option, especially with a later-2nd-round pick, as keepers will begin to thin the draft out by that point. This thinning is critical in identifying value, removing the likely keeper options, and rebuilding tiers within rankings.

Round 3

Another landmine-ridden round, with Chubb, Brown, and Hall as the players to gain value. It is essential to note this round is when you will feel talent start to thin out from a depleted keeper pool.