In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. We'll look at eight players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In) and four that don't hit quite right (the Out).
This is a Divisional Playoff edition. By nature, it's a narrow slate. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. Those living in a perfect world should, by all means, do that.
If you're the rest of us and you play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy games, Lamar Jackson, Christian McCaffrey, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Travis Kelce might or might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. We're tossing out the aforementioned top-ranked players and digging deeper. Let's get the ball rolling.
Quarterback
In on Jared Goff, Detroit Lions vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Lions are coming off their first playoff victory in 30 years with Goff (playing against the same Rams that unceremoniously traded him away and Matthew Stafford, the former Detroit QB who replaced him) hitting 22 of 27 passes for 277 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions, and a 121.8 passer rating. It was another solid home showing for Goff, who's known for that. Over the last two seasons, Goff has averaged 24.2 more passing yards per game in the friendly confines of Ford Field than in enemy territory. He's thrown 42 touchdowns at home versus 17 on the road over that span. That's not to say he can't be good on the road. Detroit's win in Tampa in Week 6 included a strong performance from Goff, who threw for a season-high 353 yards with two touchdowns and a 107.5 passer rating. Meanwhile, it's true, as Footballguy Devin Knotts pointed out in this week's Top 3 Passing Matchups, the Buccaneers pass defense has improved in recent weeks. Still, Detroit's passing matchup is at the top of his list. SI.com notes the Buccaneers have yielded 25-plus fantasy points to four quarterbacks on the road this season (including to Atlanta's Desmond Ridder in Week 14), and this game has the second-highest over/under for the weekend. Throw in a great supporting cast (including two receiving assets in St. Brown and Sam LaPorta with ten touchdowns each this season), and there's a lot to like here.
Out on Patrick Mahomes II, Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
Who would have guessed? Mahomes has morphed into a contrarian DFS play. With the Chiefs unable to coax consistent production from receiving assets not named Travis Kelce or Rashee Rice, the team's passing attack has struggled. How bad has it been? The 18 fantasy points Mahomes scored against the Dolphins last weekend represented his highest total since Week 12. That's worth noting because the Bills have allowed fewer than 19 fantasy points to all but one quarterback at home this season. More broadly, as Knotts stated, in their last nine games, Buffalo has allowed just 193 passing yards per game. Beyond all that, Mahomes will be experiencing the first road playoff game of his career after playing his first 15 either in Kansas City or in neutral site locations for the Super Bowl. CBSSports.com further notes that Mahomes and the Bills will play in frigid conditions again this week, which likely explains the second-lowest over/under on the slate.
Running Back
In on Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
Did we mention it will be cold in Buffalo and that it's hard to pass against the Bills? Perhaps we'll see a gameplan similar to what we saw last Saturday night when Pacheco rushed for 89 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries in a 26-7 win over the Dolphins, with the temperature at negative 4 degrees (and with a wind chill of negative 27) in Kansas City. Of course, the second-year running back has often been the Chiefs' focal point down the stretch. Indeed, Pacheco has dominated usage and carries in recent weeks. He was on the field for 70 percent of the offensive snaps last weekend and earned 77.4 percent (18 of 25) of the team's running-back carries. This after he played 93 percent of the snaps and had all 25 running-back touches in his final regular-season game before the Chiefs rested their key starters for Week 18. Let's acknowledge that Knotts views this as a "tough" matchup, but the kind of volume we saw in the last two games isn't new. In his previous five contests, Pacheco averaged over 21 touches, 98 yards, and a touchdown.
Out on Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
You won't catch me going after the low-hanging fruit here (you're welcome, Devin Singletary). Instead, I'll pass on White, who finished the regular season as fantasy's RB4. The second-year man was plenty busy this season, carrying the ball 272 times for 990 yards with six touchdowns. He added massive value with 64 catches, which added another 549 yards and three scores to his totals. The volume has also been solid, as he's benefited from at least 15 touches in every game he's played this season except one. Granted, his receiving role minimizes the likelihood that White will be game-scripted out of this one, and he offers a better floor than others because of it, but he'll need that receiving equity to be even remotely viable. The former third-round draft pick will need all that going up against a Lions defense that's allowed the fewest rushing yards per game since Week 14. As Knotts wrote, "Detroit is allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs in the 2023 season as they're allowing just 15.8 to the position." Not surprisingly, Knotts assesses this as a "bad" matchup. It's a fair assessment.
Wide Receiver
In on Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
One of the reasons White's receiving role isn't as exciting this weekend is the belief that Baker Mayfield will be looking to leverage his downfield assets in a very favorable matchup against a Detroit secondary that's allowed the second-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers this season. As NBC Sports suggested, both Evans and Chris Godwin, who combined for a 52 percent target share in Week 6 against Detroit, are in line for double-digit targets. Yes, Godwin has come on strong in recent weeks, but expect Mayfield to fall back on the chemistry he established with Evans in their first season together. The two have connected 79 times for 1,255 yards and 13 touchdowns (tied with Tyreek Hill for most in the NFL) in 2023. Those numbers left Evans as WR7 on the season and 11th in fantasy points per game. More importantly, he ranked first in deep targets, 14th in red-zone targets, third in end-zone targets, and first in touchdowns scored on those end-zone targets with nine. Cameron Sutton and the generous Lions secondary will have their hands full in this one.
Out on Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs
We passed on the low-hanging fruit at running back to feel better about nibbling here. In case you haven't been following along at home, Diggs surpassed 100 receiving yards in five of Buffalo's first six games. He's yet to hit that mark since. His fantasy totals have suffered accordingly. From Week 9 through the regular season finale, Diggs is WR31. His 12.1 fantasy points per game over that same span ranks 34th. But wait. It gets worse. From Week 13 through 18, Diggs is WR48 while averaging single-digit (9.2) fantasy points per game. That includes a 6.4-point outing against these same Chiefs in Buffalo's Week 14 win at Arrowhead Stadium. Being out on Diggs isn't new for me. This situation was discussed in depth with Sigmund Bloom On The Couch heading into Week 17 (when Diggs happened to have his only double-digit outing -- 15.7 points -- in New England). Per Knotts, Sunday night's passing game matchup is "bad." Set your expectations accordingly.
Tight End
In on George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers
Heading into the postseason, Kittle ranked a respectable 10th in receptions (65) among all NFL tight ends. He also ranked 10th in targets at the position. Yet he still led that group with 1,020 receiving yards, and his nine touchdowns were second only to LaPorta. As AtoZSports.com noted, among tight ends with at least 20 targets, Kittle was first in yards per reception (15.7) and yards per route run (2.22), while his 18 receptions of at least 20 yards were five more than his nearest challenger at the position, T.J. Hockenson of the Vikings. So while there are plenty of mouths to feed in this San Francisco offense, Kittle, who ranks third in yards after the catch with 488 (behind Cleveland's David Njoku and Jacksonville's Evan Engram), makes the most of every bite he gets. Meanwhile, SI.com points out the Packers have yielded the seventh-most fantasy points per game, the ninth-most receiving yards per game, and the fifth-most receiving touchdowns per game to tight ends since Week 10.
Out on Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens
It was an impressive Super Wild Card weekend showing for the Texans passing attack. C.J. Stroud threw for 274 yards and three touchdowns -- including a 37-yard scoring strike to Schultz -- in Houston's home win over the Browns. The 10.7-point outing was Schultz's first double-digit fantasy outing since Week 8. Still, Schultz was a bit player last weekend. The touchdown was his lone catch, and it came on just two targets (he dropped the other pass thrown his way). The Texans had a three-score lead for most of the second half, so passing volume was muted. The game script will likely change this week in Baltimore, with the Ravens being a 9.5-point favorite. The problem is the Ravens allowed just 16.5 points per game this season, which ranked first in the NFL. Baltimore hasn't been the stingiest against tight ends in general, but only one tight end has scored more than 12 points against them at home this season. A ferocious Ravens pass rush could add to the degree of difficulty for all involved here.
