A bust is a player who can lead you to a losing season. And the earlier you have to pick a bust, the more damage he can do to your team.
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To be clear, we define busts as players who we think will perform worse than most expect and be overvalued at their average draft position.
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Our staff recently gathered to offer up their busts for this season. Here they are.
Wide Receiver Bust from Phil Alexander
Joshua Palmer, LA Chargers
We learned from Jason Wood's Player Spotlight on Ladd McConkey that Greg Roman's offenses historically offer a coin flip's odds of producing one top-24 wide receiver and a 0% chance of a top-12 one. Wood wrote his article before Justin Herbert landed in a walking boot with a plantar fascia injury and before reports surfaced that Palmer is still fighting the knee injury that cost him seven games in 2023. Health notwithstanding, why would Palmer be the one to emerge as the Chargers' only useful receiver for fantasy purposes? Name one thing he's done exceptionally well since entering the league. I'll wait. Don't light your Round 10 pick on fire. Draft Khalil Shakir, Brandin Cooks, Rashid Shaheed, or Dontayvion Wicks instead. These guys at least have a puncher's chance to beat their ADP-implied value. Palmer is already drawing dead.
Wide Receiver Busts from Jason Wood
Jameson Williams, Detroit
Yes, Williams is a dynamic vertical threat. Yes, the Lions offense should be among the NFL's best. But betting on a tertiary contributor is rarely a recipe for success, and that's what Williams is barring multiple injuries. Amon-Ra St. Brown is the alpha receiver. Sam LaPorta is the No. 2 option and a high-volume target. Jahmyr Gibbs is No. 3. David Montgomery is No. 4. Do you really want to bet on a player who - at best - is the fifth-most crucial piece of the offensive puzzle?
Puka Nacua, LA Rams
I'm a Nacua fan, and it's not a stretch to think he could deliver top-12 value since he already did it as a rookie. However, he's currently banged up, Cooper Kupp is healthy and showing the same chemistry with Matthew Stafford that we saw in his peak years, and Demarcus Robinson is likely to have a role given the Rams' use of 3-WR sets. While I love Nacua as your WR2, he might break fantasy hearts if you draft him as your WR1.
Nico Collins, Houston
Collins' breakout last year played a significant role in the Texans' emergence into the AFC playoff picture. He'll continue to be a vital part of a strong passing attack. However, taking him at his ADP overlooks Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs. Dell is healthy and looks great in camp, and C.J. Stroud praises him at every opportunity. Meanwhile, Diggs is coming off yet another top-12 fantasy season, and those focusing on his second-half slump are ignoring his elite first half of the 2023 season. You can't discount one and praise the other—they both contributed to a WR1 campaign.
Jordan Addison, Minnesota
Addison is hurt, lost his rookie first-round quarterback, and could face a multiple-game suspension. Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln...
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