Wide Receiver Busts

A bust is a player who can lead you to a losing season. And the earlier you have to pick a bust, the more damage he can do to your team.

RELATED: See Wide Receiver Sleepers here >>>

To be clear, we define busts as players who we think will perform worse than most expect and be overvalued at their average draft position.

RELATED: See Quarterback Busts here >>>
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RELATED: See Tight End Busts here >>> 

Our staff recently gathered to offer up their busts for this season. Here they are.

Wide Receiver Bust from Phil Alexander

Joshua Palmer, LA Chargers

We learned from Jason Wood's Player Spotlight on Ladd McConkey that Greg Roman's offenses historically offer a coin flip's odds of producing one top-24 wide receiver and a 0% chance of a top-12 one. Wood wrote his article before Justin Herbert landed in a walking boot with a plantar fascia injury and before reports surfaced that Palmer is still fighting the knee injury that cost him seven games in 2023. Health notwithstanding, why would Palmer be the one to emerge as the Chargers' only useful receiver for fantasy purposes? Name one thing he's done exceptionally well since entering the league. I'll wait. Don't light your Round 10 pick on fire. Draft Khalil Shakir, Brandin Cooks, Rashid Shaheed, or Dontayvion Wicks instead. These guys at least have a puncher's chance to beat their ADP-implied value. Palmer is already drawing dead.

Wide Receiver Busts from Jason Wood

Jameson Williams, Detroit

Yes, Williams is a dynamic vertical threat. Yes, the Lions offense should be among the NFL's best. But betting on a tertiary contributor is rarely a recipe for success, and that's what Williams is barring multiple injuries. Amon-Ra St. Brown is the alpha receiver. Sam LaPorta is the No. 2 option and a high-volume target. Jahmyr Gibbs is No. 3. David Montgomery is No. 4. Do you really want to bet on a player who - at best - is the fifth-most crucial piece of the offensive puzzle?

Puka Nacua, LA Rams

I'm a Nacua fan, and it's not a stretch to think he could deliver top-12 value since he already did it as a rookie. However, he's currently banged up, Cooper Kupp is healthy and showing the same chemistry with Matthew Stafford that we saw in his peak years, and Demarcus Robinson is likely to have a role given the Rams' use of 3-WR sets. While I love Nacua as your WR2, he might break fantasy hearts if you draft him as your WR1.

Nico Collins, Houston

Collins' breakout last year played a significant role in the Texans' emergence into the AFC playoff picture. He'll continue to be a vital part of a strong passing attack. However, taking him at his ADP overlooks Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs. Dell is healthy and looks great in camp, and C.J. Stroud praises him at every opportunity. Meanwhile, Diggs is coming off yet another top-12 fantasy season, and those focusing on his second-half slump are ignoring his elite first half of the 2023 season. You can't discount one and praise the other—they both contributed to a WR1 campaign.

Jordan Addison, Minnesota

Addison is hurt, lost his rookie first-round quarterback, and could face a multiple-game suspension. Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln...

Wide Receiver Busts from Jeff Haseley

Keenan Allen, Chicago

This perspective doesn't focus on Keenan Allen in a negative light but rather highlights the potential of rookie Rome Odunze to make a significant impact in the league. At 32 years old, Allen is approaching the later stages of his career and is likely on his final contract. He no longer needs to be the primary wide receiver or the most frequently targeted player. He can still perform well without shouldering the entire burden of making plays, as we often saw during his time with the Chargers. With Chicago having a strong receiving threat in D.J. Moore and a promising young talent in Rome Odunze, Allen can play a more specialized role instead of being the top receiver. If this prediction holds, we can expect Allen's statistics to decrease while others on the team see their numbers rise.

Jordan Addison, Minnesota

Minnesota's offense may encounter challenges due to uncertainties at the quarterback position. Sam Darnold, who has moved around frequently, is now leading the team due to the unfortunate injury to rookie J.J. McCarthy. If Darnold performs well, it will likely be due to the talent of the Vikings' All-World wide receiver Justin Jefferson. This could mean that Jordan Addison may struggle to consistently contribute. In the offseason, Addison faced some issues that could indicate a shaky work ethic. His touchdown production, which was in double digits during his rookie season, is expected to decrease, especially with a new quarterback. Considering the concerns in Minnesota and Addison's history, there is potential for a significant decline in his performance in 2024.

Marquise Brown, Kansas City

As long as Travis Kelce is healthy and performing, it is tough to see any wide receiver on the Chiefs being a consistent fantasy mainstay. Last year, Rashee Rice showcased his skills well throughout the season, but history suggests that this may be an anomaly in an Andy Reid-Patrick Mahomes offense. Kelce is the top target, and then several wide receiver options make up the rest of the group. With Rice facing a possible suspension, it opens the door for Brown, an offseason signing, to show what he can do. However, Kansas City's draft selection of speedster Xavier Worthy may affect Brown's outlook. Additionally, Brown has a history of injuries throughout his career, both upper and lower body. He is already dealing with a shoulder injury, and the season hasn't even started. There is potential for disappointment for Brown, and with the emergence of Worthy, his opportunity for consistent success on a team with multiple target options could be in jeopardy.

Wide Receiver Busts from Andy Hicks

Davante Adams, Las Vegas

The drop-off from Adams’ first season in Las Vegas to his second was noticeable. This could be Adams heading into the veteran stage of his career or the fall in standard from Derek Carr to what the Raiders had at quarterback in 2023. It doesn’t help this year that Adams is another year older, and the quarterback situation isn’t going to get better. Adams could still produce a reasonable season, but his current price is his ceiling. Drafting an aging wide receiver at their best potential outcome is a way to lose your league.

Nico Collins, Houston

The Texans have a stacked receiver room, which bodes well for C.J. Stroud. He will look to prove his rookie season was not a fluke. It does not look good for any receiver to live up to their current draft slots. Collins is at the top of the pile for this season, but the arrival of Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell being available for the entire season will eat into Collins' numbers. Noah Brown and Robert Woods combined for almost 1000 yards, and John Metchie and Xavier Hutchinson are young and will also push for playing time. Collins presents as the best option, but despite a lucrative contract extension, I am unsure if he will end up on top of the pile for this season.

Stefon Diggs, Houston

The Texan receiver room received a huge boost of experience with Stefon Diggs coming over from Buffalo. What are they getting? Diggs spent the best part of the last two seasons complaining his way out of a winning team after doing the same in Minnesota. Over 30 now, the benefits of getting Diggs for Stroud are obvious, but the downside is potential malcontent poisoning the young and developing receivers. Diggs should produce good games on his best behavior, but is that enough to rely on him finishing inside the top 20 fantasy receivers in this stacked receiver room? I would pass.

Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona

Sometimes, you wonder if early ADP numbers favor rookie players far too heavily after the draft. The positioning of Harrison suggests that he is being taken at an almost impossible-to-achieve landing spot for a rookie. Of course, he could land in the top 10 fantasy receivers, but it doesn’t take much to go wrong for a wide receiver to go from the top 12 to outside the top 30 fantasy receivers. Everything has to go right in his debut season to achieve this draft spot. Take the guys who have better situations and odds of achieving these outcomes.

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