Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season.
It's Not Where, It's How
I've been playing fantasy football since 1986. I've learned some things over the years, but one lesson stands out above the rest:
People remember the last thing they see.
So it's not where you finish, though that's obviously important.
What I've found is how you finish matters most.
It's a long season. It can be challenging to stay in the game. But we owe it to our leaguemates to play hard every week of the season -- even if the games are meaningless in the big picture.
That's what people remember . . .
So Let's Make Some Decisions They Won't Forget
I suspect most of you here right now are heading towards the fantasy postseason. But wherever you're at in the standings, we need to sort some things out heading into the stretch run. And nothing is trickier than deciphering split backfields . . .
It's Why We Love Feature Backs
Christian McCaffrey is having a historic season. Some of his stats after 13 games:
He now has a league-leading 1,655 scrimmage yards this season, 849 rushing and 806 receiving.
McCaffrey is now on pace for his second career season with 1,000 rush yards and 1,000 receiving yards, which he also accomplished in 2019.
He would be the first player in NFL history with multiple seasons of 1,000 rush yards and 1,000 receiving yards.
His 85 receptions this season are fourth in the NFL -- and 31 more than any other running back through Week 13.
Not coincidentally, McCaffrey heads into the 49ers' Week 14 bye as the RB1 overall. His 328.5 fantasy points are the most of any player in the NFL . . .
He's Not Alone In Being Alone
Looking at the top fantasy producers, the top five running backs mostly have their respective workloads to themselves.
Jonathan Taylor, who is RB2, and De'Von Achane, RB5, do.
And for all intents and purposes, Bijan Robinson, who has outsnapped Tyler Allgeier 604 to 218, isn't sharing as much as he's being spelled. Robinson is RB4.
Detroit's Jahmyr Gibbs? His timeshare with David Montgomery favors the younger, speedier back 60-40.
Gibbs is doing just fine as RB3 on the season. Montgomery is also playable as RB24 . . .
Tandems for the Win?
The Lions' tandem isn't the only one we can lean into as fantasy investors. In fact, we've reached the point of the season where being able to navigate the NFL's split backfields might lead you to make some league-winning decisions.
Let's check out some more . . .
The Perfect Storm
Just like we all expected . . . The Bears ran all over the Eagles in Friday's 24-15 win. Chicago piled up 281 rushing yards in the win, which Sheil Kapadia of TheRinger.com noted is the most that any team has put up against a Fangio defense since he was the coordinator in Houston during the 2005 season.
Fangio has been the coordinator in Philadelphia since the start of the 2024 season, and they had not allowed more than 174 in a single game until Friday.
Swift and Monangai became the first Bears duo to rush for 100-plus yards each in a single game since legendary Hall of Famer Walter Payton recorded 107 yards and Matt Suhey posted 102 yards in 1985.
It's also the first time two NFL running backs have accomplished the feat since Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard did so for the Cowboys in 2019.
"Can't say enough about that running game," coach Ben Johnson said. "I don't think we win that game if we're not able to run the ball like we were."
Could It Persist?
Both Monangai and Swift have recorded 100-yard games already this season -- the rookie rushed for 176 yards against the Bengals, and Swift tallied 108 yards in Washington and 124 versus New Orleans. As the NFL's No. 2-ranked rushing offense headed into Week 13, the duo was bound for those individual performances to line up at some point.
Friday might have been the perfect storm.
Headed into the game, the Bears were prepared to rely on their rushing attack given the cold, windy conditions that were expected in Philadelphia.
They did precisely that.
Chicago ran 85 offensive plays Friday, 47 of which were runs, including five from quarterback Caleb Williams and one each from receivers Luther Burden III and DJ Moore. The other 42 went to the one-two punch of Monangai and Swift, who accounted for more than 60 percent of the Bears' offensive production against the Eagles.
Both Monangai and Swift also added a touchdown in the win.
Swift finished the week as RB3 with 20.8 fantasy points. Monangai was RB8 with 19 points.
We've Seen This Before
Two backs producing at top-10 levels? Yes, and it should come as no real surprise with Johnson calling the shot in Chicago.
After all, Gibbs and Montgomery were very productive in 2024, Johnson's final season as Detroit's playcaller.
In fact, in the 14 games both played last year (Weeks 1-15), Gibbs was RB2, with an average of 19.1 points per game. Montgomery was RB10 with 16 points per outing . . .
Who Can We Start Here?
Both are playable. Since Week 8 -- Monangai's first game with double-digit carries -- the rookie is RB16 with a 12.4-point per game average. Swift is RB24 with 12.7 points per game . . .
Who Do We Want to Start Here?
This is a more difficult question. Chicago faces the Packers, Browns, and Packers again over the next three games. They finish against the 49ers, but overall, this schedule is the second-hardest for running backs in the league.
If you start either, you'll need to temper your expectations. This week's Footballguys Projections are a good starting point; Swift is projected to finish as RB22, Monangai as RB29 . . .
Back to the Future
See if this sounds familiar . . . Chuba Hubbard took on a larger role in Sunday's surprising win over the Los Angeles Rams, playing over 50 percent of snaps for the first time since Week 8 and finishing with 19 touches -- his most since Week 3 -- along with a season-high 20.4 fantasy points.
It was the first time he scored more than 10 PPR points since Week 2.
Hubbard out-snapped Rico Dowdle 38 to 27. That was the first time he's played more snaps in a game than Dowdle since Week 8.
Hubbard opened the season as the Panthers' starter, while Rico Dowdle played on third downs and was the primary backup.
But Hubbard, who proved his fantasy mettle as RB14 in 15 appearances last year, turned up with a calf injury in Week 4. He missed Weeks 5 and 6, where Dowdle ran 53 times for 389 yards and a touchdown while catching seven passes for 84 yards and a touchdown.
Even with Dowdle posting two straight games of at least 26 touches and 32 fantasy points, Hubbard remained the starter for his first two weeks back. Still, Dowdle continued to outplay him on fewer carries, and he finally took over as the lead back in Week 9.
However, Dowdle's efficiency has dipped, and Hubbard regained traction by handling third downs and mixing in more on early downs . . .
What's Next?
Against the Rams, Hubbard had 17 carries for 83 yards (4.9 yards per carry), while Dowdle had 18 carries for 58 yards (3.2 per), closer to the early-season split in workloads.
And Sunday, Hubbard added two catches for 41 yards, showing his burst on the outside.
Dowdle, who finished last week as RB37, might not love playing a complementary role, but he definitely believes the duo can succeed together.
The former Cowboy also acknowledged it was "great" to see the offense focus on running in quantity -- even if the workload was split.
He's right about the overall volume.
The Panthers called runs on 35 of their 62 plays (61.3 percent), their highest percentage under head coach Dave Canales.
According to Panthers.com's Darin Gantt, "This is the kind of team they want to be."
What's the Most Likely Plan?
According to Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke, Dowdle will likely keep the starting job when Carolina returns from their Week 14 bye, but Hubbard will continue playing on third downs and mixing in more than he had been on early downs.
Both running backs are worth at least considering for fantasy starting lineups, but Dowdle will no longer be the high-end, must-start player he was midseason.
What's Our Best Approach?
According to ESPN's Dan Graziano, the Panthers, who face a fairly neutral schedule for running backs with games against the Saints, the Buccaneers, and Seattle after the off week, believe Hubbard is healthier than he has been in a while, and he has played well enough the past two weeks to stay in the mix and muddy things.
Nonetheless, Dowdle is still the one to count on if you're choosing between the two . . .
The Corum Conundrum
Despite their loss in Charlotte, Los Angeles' running back tandem of Blake Corum and Kyren Williams "kept pounding" the Carolina defense on Sunday.
The Rams' running backs combined for 153 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries (7.7 yards per attempt), but it wasn't enough to get a victory, as L.A. fell 28-31 against Carolina in Week 13.
Corum ran for a career-high 81 yards and a touchdown on just seven carries, averaging a whopping 11.6 yards per attempt. He's one of four backs this season to average at least that many yards per attempt on seven or more carries, according to Next Gen Stats.
Meanwhile, Williams took 13 carries for 72 yards and a score. Neither back was tackled behind the line of scrimmage.
Williams exited the game with an ankle injury during the second quarter, but ultimately reentered the game and said he'll be "ready to go next week."
He added that he had scar tissue on that ankle from an injury he suffered last season, so it wasn't as severe as it could have been.
But Williams' ankle wasn't the reason Corum got more work. He got more work because he's apparently earned it . . .
The Rise
The Rams have aimed for a 65-35 split between the two this season, but usage can fluctuate greatly week to week, depending on Corum's success at any given point in time.
To that point, Corum has played between 30 percent and 40 percent of the team's offensive snaps in each of the past four games, averaging 9.0 touches per contest.
Corum only exceeded a 30 percent snap share once in the first nine weeks.
Meanwhile, Williams has been below the 70 percent running back rush share mark in six straight games . . .
Can We Bank on Corum's Ceiling?
This is more straightforward. Corum was fine on Sunday. He was all right the week before, but he's RB34 over that two-game stretch. Corum is RB46 over the aforementioned four-game stretch in which his snap shares have risen more than his production.
So even though the second-year back is getting more work, I don't think we should expect top-20 finishes like we saw Sunday -- although flex-level play is possible.
The Incumbent is Still In Charge
Williams remains the starter of record here. He's RB9, scoring an average of 15.8 per game in the Rams' 12 contests this season. He's RB12 over the last four games, even with Corum getting more time.
The Rams have a mixed bag ahead on the schedule, with favorable matchups against the Cardinals this week and the Falcons in Week 17, with a pair of tougher matchups against Detroit and Seattle in between.
So even in an offense that runs through Matthew Stafford and the passing attack, Williams remains a locked-in starter in all formats . . .
Well, That's Not What We Expected
As Jahnke reminded his readers, New England started the season with a three-way backfield rotation, with Rhamondre Stevenson, TreVeyon Henderson, and Antonio Gibson all getting opportunities.
All three got enough playing time to limit the others until Gibson suffered a season-ending injury, which opened the door for both Stevenson and Henderson to see more playing time.
That's not what happened.
Instead, Stevenson played more than 70 percent of the snaps from Weeks 6-8. But the incumbent starter missed Weeks 9-11 because of an injury, and when he did, the rookie stepped up.
Henderson was a force over that three-game stretch, running 47 times for 264 yards with four touchdowns while catching 10 passes for 66 yards with another touchdown.
In Week 12, Stevenson returned from injury, but Henderson investors got what they wanted: The rookie remained the starter with Stevenson relegated to third-down duties. Henderson ran 18 times for 66 yards and caught three passes for 15 yards.
Investors who drafted Henderson as RB14 in the fourth round this summer were finally getting the hoped-for return . . .
Until They Weren't
But on Monday night, we all got a surprise.
Stevenson was back to being the lead back in all situations.
Jahnke noted that Henderson rotated in more frequently than he did in Weeks 6-8, but this still marked a significant decrease for him. Henderson averaged more yards per carry, while Stevenson was more effective as a receiver, helped by a 36-yard reception.
But sorting this one out isn't going to be easy.
First of all, Mike Vrabel doesn't care about anything but winning, and the Patriots have a plan.
But we need to realize -- even if we think we have a great understanding of that plan -- hot hands at any given point can change everything without notice . . .
Is There Any Certainty Here?
A 50-50 timeshare should be our baseline for this duo. While the split isn't the best news for either play, it does make both viable plays when the Patriots return from their Week 14 bye.
Games against the Bills, Ravens, and Jets will offer opportunities for Stevenson and Henderson to deliver RB2 or high-end flex production.
Setting Realistic Expectations
With Stevenson back in the mix, Henderson's run as the undisputed lead back has ended. He goes from must-start status to a flex-level player who could be supplanted if you have better options.
The same goes for Stevenson . . .
