Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season.
Well . . . This Isn't Ideal
Two weeks in, and variance is still a struggle.
For example, a pair of first-round rookie running backs, Ashton Jeanty and Omarion Hampton, have yet to run for 50 yards over four combined contests.
Jeanty's 30 carries through two weeks are tied for 13th among running backs. His 81 rush yards are the fewest among all players with at least 30 opportunities. The back-to-back struggles to open the season marked the first time Jeanty has had fewer than 45 rush yards in consecutive games since 2022, his freshman season at Boise State.
Hampton, the 22nd pick of the draft, has 72 yards through two games.
Monday night, he was held to fewer than 50 yards rushing in back-to-back games for the first time since his 2022 freshman season at North Carolina.
There's little reason to think much brighter days aren't ahead, but so far, the draft's first-round RB duo has been anything but dynamic.
Their respective teams will remain patient, but it will become increasingly difficult for fantasy investors to do the same.
Meanwhile, Javonte Williams, who went into the season as RB39 being drafted in Round 10, sits at RB3 after two games. Fantasy managers can't get him into lineups fast enough . . .
Still Not Sold On Variance?
How else do we explain two New York Giant wideouts, Malik Nabers (WR2) and Wan'Dale Robinson (WR9), Washington's Deebo Samuel Sr. sitting inside the top-10 at the position, Keenan Allen delivering WR1 numbers, and Denver's Troy Franklin, who went undrafted in most leagues as WR79, sitting at WR14?
It's a crazy game, kids.
It'll normalize over time, but the early-season weirdness tends to run through September . . .
Figuring Things Out
Adding to the intrigue this week are a series of quarterback issues. I'm not here to tell you that losing a starting quarterback is great news for any NFL team.
I'm also not going to argue it's fantastic news for your fantasy squads.
But it's something we have to deal with. And the sooner we sort it all out, the better off we'll be . . .
How Big A Hit Without Burrow?
Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow will undergo toe surgery, coach Zac Taylor announced Monday, and it will sideline him a minimum of three months.
Burrow suffered the turf toe injury in the first half of Cincinnati's game Sunday against the Jaguars. Images of his left toe were sent to noted foot specialist Dr. Robert Anderson to be reviewed, sources told Schefter.
As Rotoworld's Patrick Daugherty wrote, "For all intents and purposes, Burrow's fantasy season is over."
What It Means
For the Bengals, the good news is that Browning is a more than capable backup. He went 4-3 in seven starts in 2023, playing in place of Burrow.
Browning finished 21-of-31 passing for 241 yards, two TDs, and three INTs for a 69.9 passer rating in his two and a half quarters of play against the Jaguars, and while Burrow's injury hung a cloud over Paycor Stadium, having a backup with some moxie was the silver lining.
In addition, Ja'Marr Chase came through with 14 catches for 158 yards and a touchdown. Tee Higgins broke free on a 42-yard score to tie the game late in the third quarter.
But will that be the norm? Or should we . . .
Dial Back Expectations
If you drafted Chase with the first pick overall or Higgins in the third or fourth round, you're unlikely to get the expected return on your investment.
Daugherty, using the RotoViz game splits app, noted that we know Chase has averaged 20.7 PPR points with Burrow under center, and just 11.1 without. For Higgins, the numbers are 15.2 with, 11.8 without.
Nearly all of the non-Burrow sample size came down the stretch in 2023 with Browning at the helm.
You're still going to start Chase. You'll continue playing Higgins, but Daugherty contends the new reality is probably something like this: "Chase remains a WR1, but is a more volatile option in the WR5-8 range. Higgins goes from the WR1/2 borderline to probably more of the WR2/3 borderline.
"Not ruinous. Also not what you signed up for . . ."
What Can Brown Do For Us Now?
Chase Brown is off to a slower start than we expected. But that might be more a reflection of the Bengals' early struggles than it is of Chase's ability.
After all, through two games, Brown is the only Bengals running back with a rush.
And, as SI.com's Mark Morales-Smith suggested, Brown is going to get almost all of the running back work regardless of the quarterback. Nor do we expect opposing defenses to stack the box with Burrow out.
The concern is that Brown is going to lose his two most valuable assets.
We do not expect Browning to dump off to Brown nearly as much as Burrow did, and there will also be significantly less goal-line work because the team is going to score less often without Burrow.
Like Chase (and most likely Higgins), Brown is going to be appealing based on role and anticipated volume. But we should temper expectations because he won't be looking like an RB1; targets and touchdowns are so valuable, and he'll feel that loss.
And what about those who invested in Burrow?
Replacing Your Starter
If you drafted Burrow, Footballguy Sigmund Bloom offered up a fantastic roadmap for dealing with the situation.
One option was picking up Browning.
Bloom reminded readers that Browning was a top 10 fantasy quarterback when he replaced Burrow for the last third of 2023.
"He's an aggressive, even reckless passer, and he'll courageously pull the ball down and run even though he's not a supreme athlete, especially when the goal line is in sight," Bloom wrote. "Think of him as a discount Baker Mayfield."
That's fair.
So is Daugherty's final take: "Your season just got a lot harder, but Browning has shown just enough that it's not yet time to consider it 'over.'"
A Tough Run Coming
One thing to be mindful of with all your Bengals is their schedule. The next four opponents are the Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, and Green Bay Packers.
That's a tough run of opponents.
While the Vikings have been a mixed bag, the Broncos and Lions are both top defenses, and the Packers have looked like the best defense in football through two weeks. They have been especially tough against running backs, completely shutting down the Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, and Austin Ekeler in the first two weeks of the season . . .
Down Fields
In Week 1, Justin Fields finished in a tie for QB2 with 29.5 points.
Week 2 didn't go as well.
Fields went 3-for-11 for 27 yards, zero touchdowns, and zero interceptions before leaving Sunday's loss to the Bills with a concussion.
This was Fields' first documented concussion in the NFL, though he did have one at Ohio State. He finished Sunday's game with a career-low QBR (1.1).
He also rushed for 49 yards on five carries during the game.
As Bloom noted, Fields did not at all look like the more confident, aware, and resourceful passer he was against Pittsburgh. The injury made it sting even more if you trusted him in your lineup, but the bigger concern is that the Week 1 result was more about a generous Steelers pass defense than Fields turning the corner in his development.
According to Daugherty, "The only truly clear takeaway from Sunday is that if you are relying on Fields as an every-week starter, you probably shouldn't be doing that."
Still, the rushing upside remains. At least when Fields is available.
He will not be on the field against the Buccaneers this Sunday.
Head coach Aaron Glenn ruled Fields out for Week 3 during his Wednesday press conference.
Tyrod Taylor will get the start for the Jets. He was 7-of-11 for 56 yards and a touchdown against the Bills and last started a game while with the Giants in 2023.
Should Taylor Scare Us Off His Teammates?
Garrett Wilson has seen target shares of 43 percent and 38 percent over the first two weeks of the season.
Part of that may be due to Fields, but I'm still playing Wilson's volume with slightly lower expectations.
Breece Hall and the Jets' rushing attack came crashing back to earth last week, even though the Bills were missing Ed Oliver on the defensive line. This week, they'll take on a Tampa Bay defense that lost defensive tackle Calijah Kancey for the season in Houston on Monday night. Yes, they still have Vita Vea, but losing Kancey is a big hit.
Making things more interesting, Hall is getting a vast majority of the snaps.
As Late-Round Fantasy's JJ Zachariason noted this week, Hall played 30 offensive snaps to Braelon Allen's 9 in Week 2. That was 37 to 20 in Week 1 . . .
Daniels Or Not?
Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels sprained his left knee in Green Bay last Thursday night, and head coach Dan Quinn confirmed Monday that the injury will be an issue this week.
"He did have an MRI, and he's already begun his return to play process with us," Quinn said. "He is truly day-to-day. What does that mean for Sunday? I can't tell you that now."
Daniels was not on the field for the first practice on Wednesday ahead of Sunday's game against the Raiders.
Quinn said that Daniels had a "good rehab session" while also throwing on Wednesday and that "as we get into Friday, we'll see where we're at."
Quinn added that Daniels will have to practice to play this week. Quinn said that's important for offensive "timing" heading into the game.
"We're going to be smart, not just fast," Quinn said.
Marcus Mariota will start for the Commanders if Daniels does not get the green light to play . . .
Who's Viable Without Daniels?
We've been playing Terry McLaurin with the hopes he'd quickly regain past form. He's now scored 4.7 and 9.8 PPR points in the first two games.
As Zachariason noted, however, we've seen this before. In 2024, McLaurin started his season with 3.7 and 8.2 PPR point outings.
He hit 20 points in Week 3 last year, albeit with Daniels at QB.
His Footballguys Projection for Sunday's game is WR26. Set expectations accordingly.
Meanwhile, Deebo Samuel Sr. heads into Week 3 with a WR18 projection. His versatility makes him appealing regardless of the quarterback.
Zach Ertz has seen target shares of 17 percent and 20 percent in Washington's first two games, and Zachariason notes his route participation rates have been 81 percent and 87 percent.
Those numbers are the ingredients for starter-level production, regardless of QB . . .
What About The Running Game?
Jacory Croskey-Merritt played fewer snaps than both Austin Ekeler and Jeremy McNichols in Week 2.
He ran just nine routes to their combined 33, per PFF data.
That's likely to change this week with Ekeler suffering a season-ending torn Achilles in Green Bay.
With Ekeler out, Croskey-Merritt is expected to be the starter, and it's possible we see a more concerted effort to run the ball if Mariota is the man under center . . .
McCarthy Gets A Break
Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy is expected to be sidelined two to four weeks with a high ankle sprain.
ESPN insider Adam Schefter suggests that the team's Week 6 home game against the Philadelphia Eagles is a plausible return date.
Carson Wentz is expected to start on Sunday against the Bengals.
After that, the Vikings are scheduled to play against the Steelers in Dublin in Week 4. In Week 5, they face the Browns in London. One question is whether the Vikings will even want McCarthy to travel overseas. As NFL Network's Tom Pelissero suggested, what you don't want to do with a high ankle sprain is get on an eight-hour flight that's going to cause swelling.
So, missing the three-game stretch outlined makes a lot of sense . . .
It's Been A Struggle
Over his first two NFL starts, McCarthy has completed 24 of 41 passes for 301 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions. He has also rushed seven times for 50 yards and a touchdown, but his QBR of 20.4 ranks No. 32 of 33 qualified quarterbacks in the league.
McCarthy has also been sacked nine times in the first two games, including six in the 22-6 loss to Atlanta on Sunday night. The Falcons intercepted two of his passes, and he fumbled three times, including twice when he dropped the ball without being hit, and he lost one.
McCarthy played most of Sunday's game behind a patchwork offensive line after center Ryan Kelly and left tackle Justin Skule left Sunday's game early because of concussions, so that's worth watching as well.
Wentz, meanwhile, got starts with the Rams and Chiefs in Week 18 the last two years, with starters resting. Sunday will be Wentz's first start with a team at full strength since 2022 with the Commanders.
Quarterback-Proof vs. McCarthy-Proof
Justin Jefferson has proven to be "quarterback-proof" for most of his career. While much of his success came while catching passes from Kirk Cousins, Jefferson has also been successful with lesser-known quarterbacks, such as Sean Mannion, Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens, Jaren Hall, and Sam Darnold.
In 2023, when Cousins went down with a torn Achilles, Jefferson returned from a hamstring injury in Week 14 that year and delivered WR3 overall numbers -- scoring 18.6 points per game -- playing with Dobbs, Hall, and Mullens.
Jefferson hasn't, however, been "McCarthy-proof."
Jefferson has finished as WR20 and WR34 in Weeks 1 and 2 with the second-year man as the starter.
Clearly, McCarthy having a single quarter of strong play out of his first eight as the starter has been an issue. I'm not sure Wentz cures any of it, but I'm also not advocating sitting Jefferson.
It's not ideal, but investors with Jefferson as their top receiving asset are still at a point where patience is the answer, no matter who the quarterback is . . .
The Vikings' Rushing Hammer
The Vikings placed starting running back Aaron Jones Sr. on injured reserve. The veteran was ruled out of Sunday's game because of a hamstring injury.
Now he's out for at least four more games.
Jordan Mason has 24 carries over the first two games and now becomes RB1. The team added Cam Akers to the practice squad, but Mason is in a good spot.
It may be even better with the issues at quarterback.
As Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke noted, Mason demonstrated the ability to handle heavy workloads during his time with the 49ers last season, topping an 80 percent snap share in certain games. Similarly, the Vikings showed a willingness to give Jones 80 percent of snaps when healthy, indicating the coaching staff is comfortable using a true workhorse when necessary.
I'll remind you that Mason fared well when healthy in San Francisco.
Thrust into the spotlight when Christian McCaffrey was suddenly unavailable to open last season, Mason was RB6 through the first four games last year.
That included a pair of RB5 finishes. Three of those first four games resulted in top-10 RB finishes.
When he was traded to Minnesota this offseason, Footballguy Hutchinson Brown pointed out that Mason's ability to create explosive plays raises his fantasy ceiling. Mason ranked in the top eight in breakaway run rate among 69 qualifying running backs with 50-plus carries last season.
The Vikings' offense needs that kind of playmaking ability.
So there's potential upside here, but availability is a requirement. Mason must avoid the kind of injuries that slowed and then ultimately ended his run in San Francisco . . .
The Answer To All Our Quarterback Concerns?
As noted above, in an article outlining the options for Burrow investors, Bloom advised readers that "Browning is Plan B."
Bloom's Plan A is to spend big on the waiver wire or trade for Daniel Jones.
That's right. Danny Dimes is the solution to all our fantasy quarterback problems.
I'll remind you that Jones' skeptics were eager to see how he might handle the test presented by the Broncos defense after he carved up Miami's unit in Week 1. And to the dismay of those skeptics, he thrived for a second straight week.
Jones operated the Colts' attack comfortably, throwing for 316 yards and a touchdown while avoiding major mistakes, and it's becoming increasingly apparent why head coach Shane Steichen confidently chose Jones as his starter over Anthony Richardson Sr. during the preseason.
Daniel Jones was blitzed on a career-high 71.1% of his dropbacks and went 16 of 25 for 265 yards and a touchdown, via NFL Pro.
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) September 15, 2025
That was the fourth-most passing yards against the blitz in any game since 2016. Against a strong Broncos defense!
My favorite stat of the day so far.…
But what truly powered the Colts to this comeback win was the offense's balanced approach, which leaned on Jonathan Taylor and his ever-present big-play threat. It came to fruition in a key spot in the fourth quarter when Taylor sliced through traffic and hit top speed on a 68-yard run that led to a crucial chip-shot field goal.
Taylor ran 28 times for 165 yards and caught two passes for 50 yards. He scored on one of those catches, and the NFL announced on Wednesday that Taylor has been named the AFC offensive player of the week.
If Indianapolis can maintain this level of balance throughout the season, Jones' chances of being consistently effective increase, and he might be one of the biggest fantasy surprises of the season . . .
This And That: Around The League Edition
Time to get some Week 2 outcomes of interest on your radar heading into Week 3 of the 2025 NFL season . . .