Our Cecil Lammey talks about the concept of four game windows in a season. Over eight weeks, the four-game samples can yield stark contrasts. At the top, Ja'Marr Chase was WR21 at 11.1 half PPR points per game through the first four weeks. He has more than doubled that production in Weeks 5 through 8, standing at WR1 with 22.8 PPG. Ladd McConkey was WR56 in the first window, and Devonta Smith was WR41. They are WR5 and WR3 in the second period.
Unfortunately, it flips the other way. Quentin Johnston was WR4 through four weeks. He is WR78 in the second window. Courtland Sutton was WR11; he has fallen to WR25. Meanwhile, teammate Troy Franklin is WR14 in the second stanza.
Our task now is to identify the receivers set to stand out in the upcoming window. Weeks 9 to 12 are crunch time, when teams determine who will make the fantasy playoffs and who will fade away. Rashee Rice, Travis Hunter, and Chimere Dike are players who provided minimal production early but look primed to impact the back half. How does the entire league shape up?
The Target Report
I view target trees as "clean" or "dirty." Clean trees distill targets to their top options and give standout fantasy performances. Dirty trees are, well, a mess and rely on unpredictable possibilities. The chart below categorizes these offenses.
Offenses with Top 2 Options > 60% Target Share
| Team | Throws | Player | Targets | Stat Line | Target % | Snaps | Snap % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina | 23 | Tetairoa McMillan | 10 | 7-99-0 | 43.48% | 57 | 93% |
| Jalen Coker | 4 | 3-36-0 | 17.39% | 40 | 66% | ||
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 3 | 3-19-0 | 13.04% | 33 | 54% | ||
| Cincinnati | 33 | Ja'Marr Chase | 19 | 12-91-0 | 57.58% | 58 | 98% |
| Noah Fant | 3 | 3-41-0 | 9.09% | 28 | 47% | ||
| Chase Brown | 3 | 3-32-1 | 9.09% | 32 | 54% | ||
| LA Chargers | 24 | Ladd McConkey | 10 | 6-88-1 | 41.67% | 42 | 58% |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 5 | 5-77-1 | 20.83% | 56 | 77% | ||
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 4-44-0 | 20.83% | 18 | 25% | ||
| Philadelphia | 20 | DeVonta Smith | 9 | 6-84-0 | 45.00% | 53 | 93% |
| Saquon Barkley | 5 | 4-24-1 | 25.00% | 35 | 61% | ||
| Dallas Goedert | 3 | 3-28-2 | 15.00% | 37 | 65% | ||
| Tampa Bay | 24 | Emeka Egbuka | 9 | 3-35-0 | 37.50% | 51 | 88% |
| Tez Johnson | 6 | 5-43-0 | 25.00% | 41 | 71% | ||
| Cade Otton | 5 | 4-40-0 | 20.83% | 56 | 97% |
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McMillan is without question the primary target. He is on pace for a 78-1,088-4 rookie season. Coker played dramatically more snaps in his second game off injured reserve, but Xavier Legette is still running more snaps as the primary outside receiver opposite McMillan. Coker has a fantasy hive that loves him, but the team is cycling through multiple receivers and tight ends. A lower volume passing attack does not set up well for someone else to emerge as a consistent fantasy option.
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The complete list of NFL players with 40 or more targets in a two-game span: Ja'Marr Chase. Joe Flacco and Chase are like 2024's Jameis Winston - Jerry Jeudy connection on steroids. Chase has 38 receptions in three games with Flacco; only Michael Thomas has a three-game stretch of 38 receptions.
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McConkey was WR56 through the first four weeks. He is WR5 over the last four. Gadsden's 17-game extrapolation over his last three outings is 107 receptions, 1,741 receiving yards, and 11 touchdowns. Quentin Johnston has been the victim. He has 70 total receiving yards and one touchdown since Week 4.
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Goedert has set his career high with seven touchdown receptions. Pete Retzlaff holds the Eagles franchise record for most touchdowns by a tight end, with ten in 1965. One more, and Goedert will move into a five-way tie for the second most. Terrell Owens has the team record, independent of position, with 14. Smith has similar splits to McConkey; he was WR42 through the first four weeks and has been WR3 since, bumping his 4.3 receptions and 39.5-yard average to 6.8 receptions and 107.5 yards.
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The Buccaneers relied on their run game as their passing attack was quiet. The Saints never threatened, and the team heads into a needed Week 9 bye. Egbuka had 25 receptions, 445 yards, and five touchdowns through the first five games of the season. He has nine receptions, 117 yards, and no touchdowns over the last three. Johnson is a riser; the team needs him if Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan stay out after the break.
Offenses with Top 2 Options > 50% and Top 3 > 70% Target Share
