Tight ends are one of the toughest positions to nail down. Especially in recent years, there's been a flattening of the curve. Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and T.J. Hockenson are no longer atop the rankings. An influx of young talent has hit the market: Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, Sam LaPorta, Tucker Kraft, and Dalton Kincaid.
New rookies are poised to make immediate impacts: Tyler Warren, Colston Loveland, and maybe even Mason Taylor, Terrance Ferguson, Elijah Arroyo, and Oronde Gadsden II. And we're even seeing veterans find success in their second and third acts: David Njoku, Evan Engram, Mike Gesicki, Jonnu Smith, and Zach Ertz.
This makes most tight ends beyond the top few extremely difficult to choose in rankings.
See a similar look at other positions: Running Backs | Wide Receivers
While there are obvious difference-makers to target early, the projections for many others are pretty close. Rather than falling into the mid-round tight-end trap, it appears best to pay up or wait this year, taking a "Great or Late" strategy at the position.
But let's start with the guys you should feel pretty confident paying up for.
The Difference-Makers
These are the players I'm content drafting early, knowing they could all easily finish as this year's TE1. This tier, for me, is incredibly flat. The gap between Kittle and Bowers is pretty negligible. With Kittle consistently being the third tight end to go off the board in drafts, he's the clear and obvious best value. With Bowers going much earlier, it's harder to justify paying up for him. McBride feels accurately ranked.
- TE1 - George Kittle (+2) - Kittle was the per-game TE1 last year and should be the offensive focal point with Deebo Samuel Sr. in Washington and Brandon Aiyuk recovering from injury.
- TE2 - Trey McBride
- TE3 - Brock Bowers (-2) - He's a great football player, but Kittle and McBride returning to systems they found success in provides more theoretical security than Bowers, who will be on a completely revamped offense with new coaches and weapons.
Steady TE1s
While the shiny new toys are fun, these veterans going in the mid-rounds make for fine values. There are reasonable concerns surrounding each, which is pushing them down in drafts, but all have logged consistent top-three finishes in recent seasons. While this isn't a tier I'm targeting aggressively, it's hard to pass on these guys, knowing they can still potentially produce at elite levels.
- TE4 - T.J. Hockenson (+1) - A midseason return from an ACL tear might have caused us to forget how steady Hockenson was to start his career.
- TE5 - Mark Andrews (+2) - A season bookended by injuries and drops impacts the public perception of Andrews, who quietly churned out another top-five season last year.
- TE6 - Travis Kelce
Tight Ends People Draft To Fill Out A Roster
As we progress further down the draft board, risk becomes a more significant factor, but the lower costs make it more palatable. This tier has some players with immense upside, but you can also find similar upside deeper in the draft. Pairing one of these tight ends with a guy in one of the following tiers doubles your chances of stumbling into this year's difference-maker. However, I'm mostly okay with overlooking this tier (aside from Kraft) at the cost.
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