There is one word in fantasy football that is more important than any other. It is absolutely critical to have success in fantasy. Essential to winning a championship.
That word is Goldschläger.
Wait, that's not it. That helps (until it hurts), but that's not the word.
The word is value. Yep. That's right. Value.
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Winning in fantasy football is all about finding value—about selecting players who outperform their asking price on draft day. The more of those players you roster, the better. And the gap between cost and payoff matters too. Sure, having the top-scoring running back in a given year is great. But if he was drafted as the third back off the board, that's not a league-winner necessarily. But get a guy who lays waste to the position relative to ADP, and you have a fantasy MVP.
You have a robbery.
Yes, sometimes it's the elite options who are fantasy MVPs. When Christian McCaffrey outscored every other running back by almost 150 PPR points back in 2019, that absolutely won leagues. Ditto for Travis Kelce at tight end in 2022, when he topped his position by over 100 PPR points.
But more often than not, it's the dark horses who win the MVP race—guys drafted a little later who become high-end starters. Like Drake Maye of the New England Patriots going from an average draft position outside the top 15 at quarterback last year to a third-place finish in fantasy points. Or Brian Thomas Jr. going from late-round afterthought to top-10 PPR wideout in 2024.
Dark horses win leagues, too.
Time to let some run.
Dark-Horse Fantasy MVP Candidates
Quarterback
Matthew Stafford, LA Rams
Stafford had an okay season for the Rams last year—the 38-year-old led the NFL with 4,707 passing yards, paced the league with 46 touchdown passes, threw the longest pass of the season (88 yards), and finished with more fantasy points than any quarterback in the NFC. Oh, and he was named the NFL's Most Valuable Player.
Yet, Stafford's early ADP sits outside the top 12 at the position, because…because.
Yes, Stafford isn't getting any younger. Yes, last year's numbers are his fantasy ceiling. But that's a pretty flipping good ceiling. Last this analyst looked, the Rams still have Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. Stafford plays in a Sean McVay offense. And he showed exactly zero signs of decline in 2025.
If you like to play "QB Chicken" on draft day, Matthew Stafford should be your bae.
Kyler Murray, Minnesota
Murray has had a rough year. Last season, Murray played in just five games before a foot injury ended his season. He spent the rest of the year watching Jacoby Brissett start for the Arizona Cardinals while trying to sneak in a game or two of Call of Duty: Black Ops on the sideline. In March, the Redbirds released the 28-year-old.
Don't feel too bad—the Cardinals are paying him $35 million to play for the Vikings this year.
Murray is going to win the starting job in the Twin Cities this year—his struggles the past few years aside, Murray is flat-out a better quarterback than J.J. McCarthy. The Vikings have a loaded wide receiver corps and a head coach in Kevin O' Connell who has already resurrected one quarterback's career in Sam Darnold. And when Murray was at his fantasy best (2020) he flirted with 4,000 passing yards, topped 800 rushing yards and led all NFC quarterbacks in fantasy points.
Running Backs
Cam Skattebo, NY Giants
For a time last year, Skattebo appeared headed toward a big rookie year. Over four healthy weeks as the starter for the G-Men, he had at least 90 total yards in all four contests, found the end zone four times, and ranked eighth in PPR points among running backs. But then the hard-charging back from Arizona State dislocated his ankle, and that was the end of that.
Skattebo recently told reporters he expects to be 100 percent for training camp, stating, "I'm a little ways out. Not too far, but I'll be ready to go. Week 1, I'll be ready to go." When Skattebo was healthy last year, he was the clear-cut lead running back for a Giants offense that has the potential to be sneaky-good in 2026.
Skattebo has a top-five ceiling and a low-end RB2 price tag.
David Montgomery, Houston
It has been a minute since Montgomery rushed for 1,000 yards. But that has a lot more to do with the presence of Jahmyr Gibbs in Detroit than Montgomery himself, and even as Gibbs' sidekick in Motown, Montgomery still had decent numbers and a nose for the endzone, averaging 11 rushing scores the past three seasons. Now, Montgomery has been traded to Houston, where he's slated to be the Texans' lead back—a move that has generated about as much fantasy enthusiasm as New Coke.
Montgomery is 29, and his career average of 4.1 yards per carry isn't blowing anyone's doors off. But Montgomery should sail past 250 touches this season, and there's a genuine chance that he sees 300 touches for the first time since he was the featured back in Chicago in 2020.
That year, Montgomery was a top-five PPR back. Ain't saying. Just saying.
Wide Receivers
Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay
It was an up-and-down first NFL season for Egbuka in the NFL. The former Ohio State standout came roaring out of the gate. Over the first five weeks of last season, he was third in PPR points among wide receivers. But after veteran Chris Godwin Jr. returned later in the season, Egbuka's production tailed off considerably—at season's end, he barely finished inside the top 25 for the year.
2026 will be more like the beginning of last year than the end.
With Mike Evans gone, Egbuka is going to be the No. 1 wide receiver in Tampa. With all due respect to Godwin, he's a 30-year-old who has missed 18 games over the last two years. Talent isn't in question, even a little, with Egbuka; it's just a matter of targets.
He's going to crack the top 10 this season. Take it to the bank.
Jameson Williams, Detroit
There's no doubt who the top dog in the Lions offense is—Amon-Ra St. Brown is a legitimate top-five fantasy wideout. But as second-fiddles go, Williams is one of the best in the league. Last year, the 25-year-old set career highs in targets, catches, and receiving yards on the way to a top-12 PPR finish.
And yet, Williams early ADP is high-end WR3 territory.
In fairness, Williams isn't going to get the target share other elite wide receivers do, barring an injury to St. Brown. But Williams gets fantasy managers bang for their buck—he has averaged 17 yards per reception for his career. His targets have increased every year he's been in the NFL. And if he keeps torching defenses deep and can add a score or three (his career-high in that regard is 7), we're talking about a potential top-five wideout at a deep discount.
Book it. Let's get nuts.
Tight Ends
Kyle Pitts Sr., Atlanta
To be fair, I feel a bit like Charlie Brown with this one: apt to wind up flat on my back. But nothing ventured, nothing gained, so let's do this.
After three straight disappointing years following a 1,000-yard rookie season, Pitts finally started looking the part of the earliest tight end ever selected in the NFL Draft. The 25-year-old set career-highs in targets, catches, and touchdowns while finishing second in PPR points among tight ends in 2025.
Pitts has a new head coach in Kevin Stefanski and will more likely than not have a new quarterback in Tua Tagovailoa. (What? It's true.) But Stefanski's offense tends to involve tight ends a fair amount, and outside of wide receiver Drake London, Pitts is the best option whoever Atlanta's quarterback is will have.
Repeating last season is far from out of the question. Neither is bettering it.
Isaiah Likely, NY Giants
Likely has teased fantasy managers for years as the second tight end in Baltimore, but with Mark Andrews an undying mummy intent on draining Likely's life force to sustain himself, the 26-year-old was hit-or-miss—emphasis on the latter. But in 2026 Likely will finally get his chance to be a true No. 1 tight end after following John Harbaugh to the Big Apple.
Two players from a four-win team last year. No chance this ends badly.
If Jaxson Dart and Co. stay healthy, the Giants have the potential to be the most improved offense in the league in 2026 ala last year's Patriots—except with a better offensive line. There also isn't a lot of depth at wide receiver behind Malik Nabers, who is rehabbing a torn ACL and reportedly iffy for the start of the regular season.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow Gary on X at @IDPGodfather.
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