My 2026 Footballguys Subscriber Contest Strategy

Our Subscriber Contest is free for premium subscribers to enter.
The deadline to submit/edit your contest entry is 8:00 pm (ET) on Wednesday, September 9th, 2026.
Click here to play.

The fantasy football landscape has evolved since this contest was first introduced on August 7th. Players have been traded to new teams. Position battles have been resolved. Injuries have taken their toll. Player values and projections have changed.

Let's look at several strategies for submitting (or revising) your Subscriber Contest entry to take advantage of these recent developments.

Your approach will lie somewhere on the spectrum between "wing it" and "compute it", depending on the time you have available and your overall interest in mathematical analysis. Use the approach you're most comfortable with.

If you're curious to explore the analysis-heavy end of the spectrum, this article is for you.

We'll start by discussing three strategies for constructing your action plan:

1. Maximize Return on Investment
2. Manage Bye Weeks
3. Handcuff Premium Starters

Then we'll finish up with a discussion of Team Defenses and Place Kickers.

Put on your analysis cap. Let's see what the numbers tell us.

Strategy 1 - Maximize Return on Investment (ROI)

In the context of entering the Subscriber Contest, your investment is the $250 spending cap you have for your player selections. Your return is measured in projected fantasy points, which is determined by marrying projected performance statistics (passing completions, rushing yards, receptions, etc.) to the contest scoring rules.

A player's expected return on investment (FPs/$ or ROI) is the ratio of his projected fantasy points (Projected FPs) to his contest cap dollars (Contest $). The contest cap dollars are published as part of the scoring rules and will not change.

Strategy 1 thus boils down to selecting the set of players (within the contest guidelines) you project to score the most fantasy points. There's a twist, however: these projected points must be distributed over the 17 weeks of the contest such that your roster stays above the survivor-style cut line every week. That's where your bye week distribution comes into play. More on that in our Strategy 2 discussion below. 

There are numerous sources of player projections. You can use those provided by your league host, the ones available through your Footballguys subscription, or you can make up your own. I'm partial to the numbers behind door number two, so for the analysis in this article, we'll reference the Footballguys expert projections as of September 2nd.

In the following four sections, we'll explore the numbers for quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends.

Quarterbacks

Observations

1. Matthew Stafford has the 6th-highest projection at the 12th-highest contest price.
2. Jared Goff has the 11th-highest ROI at the 16th-highest contest price.  

My Contest Strategy

In addition to Stafford and Goff, I wanted to choose either Justin Herbert or Trevor Lawrence, both of whom are QB1s having a week 7 bye, the same contest cost, and nearly equal projected fantasy points. I chose Lawrence, as he has a more favorable schedule during the final four weeks of the contest.

All three quarterbacks have different bye weeks and are ranked in the top 12 at the position.

Running Backs

To identify value selections at the running back position, let's look at those ranked in the top 40 for both projected fantasy points and ROI.

The following table lists the running backs who meet those criteria, ranked from highest projected fantasy points to lowest.

My Contest Strategy

I spent 28.8% of my contest budget on Derrick Henry, plus four running backs listed in the table above (D'Andre Swift, Quinshon Judkins, Jordan Mason, and Jacory Croskey-Merritt). They all have different bye weeks; only one (Henry) has a bye week after Week11.

Wide Receivers

To identify value selections at the wide receiver position, let's look at players ranked in the top 60 for both projected fantasy points and ROI.

The following table lists the wide receivers who meet those criteria, listed from most projected fantasy points to least.

My Contest Strategy

This is the riskiest position in my submission portfolio. My configuration strategy features only one top-25 receiver (Jameson Williams) and thus bets on weekly spike performances from one or two of the other five rostered wideouts (Chris Godwin Jr., Wan'Dale Robinson, KC Concepcion, De'Zhaun Stribling, and Kayshon Boutte).

The six occupy five different bye weeks, the latest of which is Week 11.

Tight Ends

To identify value selections at the tight end position, we'll look at players ranked in the top 35 for both projected fantasy points and ROI.

The following table lists the tight ends who meet those criteria, ranked from highest projected fantasy points to lowest.

My Contest Strategy

I dropped just 14.8% of my contest budget on four of the tight ends listed in the above table: Evan Engram, Hunter Henry, T.J. Hockenson, and Juwan Johnson. They all have different bye weeks, and all of them will be available from Week 12 on. Three are top-19 tight ends; all four have top-18 ROIs.

Weather Considerations

The final four weeks of the contest - when the prizes are won - occur in the month of December. Bad weather can limit the productivity of skill position players in outdoor games.

Arguably, the five coldest outdoor stadiums are Lambeau Field (GB), Highmark Stadium (BUF), Soldier Field (CHI), Gillette Stadium (NE), and Huntington Bank Field (CLE).

Here is the schedule for the teams that will play the most games in these stadiums in December:

During this crucial stretch of contest games, the Packers play every game in a historically cold- or bad-weather outdoor stadium. The Bears play in potentially adverse conditions in each of the final three weeks of the contest.

Consider moving off skill position players from these teams if you can find an equally productive alternative.

Overall Recommendations For Maximizing ROI

1. Do not roster players who became injured after the contest was announced.
2. Look for recent camp battle winners.
3. Avoid players from teams that frequently play December games outdoors in stadiums where the weather can limit their fantasy productivity.
4. Use Footballguys' player upside rating to break ties (examine "Upside" on the Footballguys Rankings page)

Strategy 2 - Manage Bye Weeks

The overarching recommendation of this strategy is: spread out your roster's bye weeks, prioritizing early-season byes over late-season byes.

The following chart shows, for each week preceding the contest finals, the teams on bye, the percentage of contest entries that will be eliminated (%Cut), and the percentage of initial contest entries that will remain after that week's cutdown (%Remaining).

Your Panthers and Chiefs players will be available to you for the remainder of the season after Week 5, and you'll just need to be in the top 46.7% of entries to move on to Week 6.

Carefully consider the risk of rostering a heavy concentration of players from the six teams having a Week 11 bye, as 30% of the field will be eliminated that week.

Loading up on Cardinals and Cowboys players may prove fatal to your entry in Week 14, as they won't be available to help you survive the 40% cut leading into the first week of the contest finals.

Next, let's extend your bye week analysis to the position level. My recommendation: every player rostered within a given position group should have a different bye week.

As an example of the dangers of ignoring this advice, should you choose to roster Justin Herbert and Josh Allen (both outstanding fantasy assets), you will have neither player available to start for you in Week 7 - not to mention that you'll have burned 18.4% of your total budget to put yourself in this predicament.

The exception - rostering handcuffs - is discussed next.

Strategy 3 - Handcuff Premium Starters

An injury to a key starter can severely limit your roster's chances of staying above the cut line. Consider setting aside a portion of your budget as insurance to mitigate injury risk.

Using the quarterback position as an example, the following table looks at the cost of acquiring both a starter and his backup. It is sorted in descending order by the cost to acquire the starter.

Consider handcuffing premium starters. For example, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow are both projected QB1s; their backups cost $5 and $6, respectively, to roster as insurance.

Note that several high-profile quarterbacks (e.g., Drake Maye, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and Jalen Hurts) do not have their backups available to be rostered in this contest. There are no inexpensive injury-risk backup options for these players.

Consider extending this approach across the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions - especially in situations where you believe the backup will ascend into a highly productive starting role should the starter get injured.

A related strategy is to roster a low-cost pair of players who are in a timeshare or still-unresolved camp battle. There's upside if one of the players gets hurt or wins the camp battle outright, plus the possibility that both players may figure into your week's scoring.

Examples of such running back duos (with their combined acquisition costs and projected fantasy points) include:

• Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears (21 / 242)
• Aaron Jones Sr. and Jordan Mason (22 / 258)
• J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey (22 / 258)
• Bhayshul Tuten and Chris Rodriguez Jr. (22 / 248) 

   

What About Team Defenses?

There is little variance in the expected total fantasy points scored by Team Defenses over the course of the contest. The difference between the top-ranked Team DEF and the 20th-ranked Team DEF is 1.2 projected fantasy points per game.

The following table lists the Team Defenses in descending order of their total projected fantasy points. The teams with the numerically lowest ROI Rank provide the highest projected fantasy points per contest dollar.

Keep in mind that the contest scoring only provides points for sacks, fumble recoveries, interceptions, and defensive touchdowns. The number of points given up to opposing offenses does not affect the Team DEF point total.

Consider these recommendations for your Team DEF selection plan:

1. Spread your total Team Defense budget (nominally $12 to $17) over three or four teams to increase your chances of catching a spike week.
2. Maximize the number of selections having an early-season bye week.
3. Minimize duplication of bye weeks so, at most, only one of your Team DEFs will be excluded from consideration in any given week.

My Contest Strategy

Given the low scoring variance at the position, I chose to roster four Team DEFs (WAS, MIA, NOS, and ATL) while only expending 15 contest dollars. Three of the teams offer a top-seven ROI. From Week 9 on, the only week I won't have four shots at a spike week is Week 11 - and then I'll still have three.

For a deeper look at 2026 NFL team defenses, check out Footballguy Ryan Weisse's article here.

Do Kickers Matter?

Even though kickers don't get much fantasy love, they do have a role in this contest.

As with the Team DEFs, the variance in total expected fantasy points scored for kickers is small. The following table is sorted from best to worst return on investment.

The recommended plan for this position is the same as it was for Team DEFs: spend $12 to $17 to select three or four options with a high ROI and differing early-season bye weeks. Use potentially adverse weather conditions in outdoor stadiums as your tiebreaker.

My Contest Strategy

I spent $15 to roster four kickers: Tyler Bass, Chris Boswell, Harrison Butker, and Will Reichard, each of whom possesses a different bye week and a top-10 ROI. The group's latest bye week is Week 9. Three are top-16 fantasy options, trailing the highest-projected kicker (Brandon Aubrey) by just 1.6 or fewer points per game.

Refer to Weisse's article on kicker tiers and targets to further inform your selections.

Final Words

You're now armed with a lot of analytical data; all that's left to do is craft a contest winner! Be sure to finalize your roster before Wednesday evening's deadline.

Have fun putting your entry together, and best of luck!

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