DFS First Look: Week 3

DFS First Look is back for Week 3. As a reminder, every projection in this article is my own, and those projections come from a simulation of every game on the slate run 10,000 times. The optimal column in each table shows how often a player landed in the best possible lineup under the salary cap across those sims, and when a player’s chance of playing is below 95 percent, it shows under his name. For GPPs, comparing these optimal percentages to our percent rostered projections (assembled by Devin Knotts) is the best way to find the players who are overvalued or undervalued for the week.

We now have two weeks of usage data to work with, which is still a small sample but a lot more than we had a week ago. Several of the notes below lean on route shares and target counts from the first two games, and once again, many of the best values on the slate are the result of injuries.

Keep in mind, this article is a snapshot taken on Wednesday morning, before the first official practice reports of the week. Injury news that comes out after this goes live will change the projections, which changes the sims and can shuffle the top plays for both cash and GPP. The injury assumptions that matter most for this week’s early projections are Sam Darnold (glute), DJ Moore (shoulder), and Zay Flowers (hamstring) playing, and Rico Dowdle (toe) and Nico Collins (hamstring) sitting. I have Darnold at 75 percent to play since he is expected to practice Wednesday, Moore at 60 percent, Flowers at 70 percent, Dowdle at 45 percent, and Collins at only 10 percent.

Dowdle and Flowers are the two calls with the biggest impact on the slate. If Dowdle plays, Jaylen Warren’s DraftKings projection falls from 17.4 points to about 11.8, and Warren goes from one of the better mid-priced backs on the slate to someone you can ignore. If Flowers sits, Rashod Bateman goes back to being one of the best values on the slate after drawing nine targets as the Ravens’ No. 1 receiver last week. Moore’s status matters too, since he projects to see nearly 20 percent of Josh Allen’s targets, and if he sits, those targets would go to Dalton Kincaid and others in a game where the Bills’ implied team total is almost 29 points.

Slate Overview

The slate overview is still built around implied team totals and how each one compares to that team's average implied total for the full season (based on my estimated lines for future weeks). Next week, with three games for each team in the books, I plan to start adding real defense-vs-position numbers. A three-game sample size will be noisy, but worth looking at. Not quite there yet with just two games for each team.

The main slate is 13 games again, and this week five teams have an implied total of 27 or more. That group is where most of the top plays come from.

Kansas City tops the board at 29.0 as an 11.5-point road favorite in Miami, and that number is 17 percent above the Chiefs’ season average. Patrick Mahomes II threw 47 times for 382 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s overtime win over the Colts, and Ken Walker III has handled 47 carries and 16 targets through two games. Walker had an 86 percent backfield opportunity share in Week 2 along with all of the team’s rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line, and he lands in more optimal DraftKings tournament lineups than any other player on the slate in my early-week run.

Buffalo is second at 28.75 as a 7-point home favorite over the Chargers, in a game with a 50.5 total. Josh Allen has 20 carries and four rushing touchdowns through two weeks, and James Cook III finally got into the end zone in Week 2 on his way to 135 rushing yards. The Bills’ receiver room is the part of this offense that is harder to project, with DJ Moore trying to play through an AC joint sprain.

San Francisco (28.0) is an 8.5-point home favorite against Arizona. This is a great spot for the 49ers, and the blowout risk feels lower than it was last week against the Dolphins, when Christian McCaffrey and Mike Evans didn’t play all four quarters. San Francisco has scored 40 or more points in two of its last five games against the Cardinals.

Baltimore at Dallas has the highest total on the slate at 52.5. The Ravens are at 28.0, and I’m projecting Zay Flowers to return from his hamstring injury at about 85 percent of his normal role after Jesse Minter said Monday that he has a good shot to play. That moves Rashod Bateman, who drew nine targets as the No. 1 receiver last week, back to a secondary role. The Cowboys’ 24.5 is right around their season average, but after CeeDee Lamb went for 153 yards and two touchdowns and Dak Prescott threw four touchdowns in Week 2, both sides of this game are in play for stacks. The game is being played in Brazil, so it will be worth following reports on the field conditions there and thinking through what any issues might mean for specific matchups, since this potential shootout is a key spot to get right for GPPs.

Detroit (27.0) is a 6.5-point home favorite over the Jets and rounds out the top five. 

At the bottom of the board, Washington’s 16.75 is 23 percent under its season average with Marcus Mariota starting in place of Jayden Daniels (elbow). Indianapolis at 19.75 is 15 percent below its average after losing Alec Pierce to a heel injury. Both face extremely tough defenses to boot. Cleveland is the one team near the bottom of the board with a sneaky good matchup, as its 20.0 is 14 percent above its projected season average. This is a spot where we could look to save some money with Deshaun Watson, Quinshon Judkins, or Denzel Boston.

DraftKings

Quarterbacks

Quarterback is wide open again on DraftKings, with the top ten separated by less than four percentage points of optimal share. Josh Allen at $8,000 leads the way at 7.9 percent with the highest quarterback projection on the slate at 23.7 points, and his rushing touchdown production is a big part of why he projects so well in tournaments even at the top of the price range. 

Tyler Shough at $5,400 is right behind him at 7.8 percent and has the best points-per-dollar projection of any quarterback on the main slate. He has thrown 90 passes through two games, New Orleans has a 23.75 implied total at home against the Raiders, and he gives you a direct stack with Chris Olave, who is one of the top plays of the week. The Saints’ passing numbers are inflated by game scripts that had them playing catch-up in each of the first two weeks, but they are playing fast, and Shough is a playmaker.

Patrick Mahomes II at $6,200 is third at 7.2 percent in the best offensive spot on the slate. It would be nice if the Miami offense had a better shot of forcing Mahomes to stay aggressive, but we just saw Brock Purdy have a big game against Miami (287 yards and three total touchdowns on 22 passes) without the Dolphins’ offense doing much.

Kyler Murray at $5,100 is also worth a look now that he has cleared the concussion protocol, and he ranks sixth by optimal share with one of the best points-per-dollar numbers at the position. The Tampa Bay defense has historically been a pass funnel, and it just allowed Deshaun Watson to post his best game by EPA since 2023.

Running Backs