The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position.
They gave us 20 names. That's a lot.
If you want all of the players, keep on reading. If you just want the runaway top vote-getter, it was Aaron Jones with eight. And the next highest on the list was Leonard Fournette with five.
NOTE: We know all these different opinions can be a lot. And certainly, not everyone agrees on everything.
If you want to cut straight to the chase and get our "Bottom Line" for where we project every player right down to the last yard, you can see that here. That's our Bottom Line and where we plant the Footballguys Flag for all these players.
If you'd like to see more detail about how the staff sees different players, here is every wide receiver who was mentioned and the reasons why.
Player Receiving 8 Votes
Aaron Jones, Green Bay
Sigmund Bloom: Jones was an RB1 last year mainly on the back of his touchdowns and his passing game involvement when Davante Adams was out. This offseason, the team drafted a power back, A.J. Dillon, in the second round, which endangers Jones' touchdown upside. If the team keeps Jamaal Williams, who is best used on passing downs, that will keep him marginal in the passing game. His weekly range of outcomes is too volatile to invest a high pick in this year.
Andrew Davenport: The arguments against Jones are pretty familiar by now, but it bears mentioning again that things lined up exactly how he needed them to last year in order to post the fantasy points he did. Yes, the touchdowns seem bound for regression, but the more concerning factor is that Jones was not used very much in the passing game with Davante Adams on the field. When Adams played (12 games), Jones topped 37 receiving yards in 2 of 12 games and had more than two receptions only three times in those games. Yet while Jones was still a very good running back for fantasy purposes without as much receiving work, it took his unsustainable touchdown barrage to remain as such. Under Matt LaFleur, the trend of using other running backs is going to continue as they selected a running back in the draft, so if there are fewer touchdowns, a poor receiving outlook, and more competition, then Jones is being overvalued where he's being drafted.
Jeff Haseley: Aaron Jones probably will not score 19 touchdowns again this year, so there are already expectations of a drop-off. He also may give way to the larger and more powerful rookie A.J. Dillon at the goal-line. I don't see Dillon taking over the majority of the team's carries. That will belong to Jones as long as he is active and healthy. However, Dillon was brought in to compete as the team's back of the future which could have a negative impact on Jones' production this season.
Andy Hicks: Aaron Jones finished 2019 as the third-ranked running back yet no one seems in any hurry to draft him anywhere near that slot in 2020. Why? Highly productive running backs in the NFL are becoming an endangered species and you would think he would be valuable to a franchise. Well, the Packers seem to be running to avoid paying him franchise back money and drafted A.J. Dillon in the second round. Apart from Dillon, the 2019 season from Jones screams fluke. 19 touchdowns are not going to happen again and Aaron Rodgers will get his share of touchdowns inside the five. That said Jones was the key to Green Bays' successful season and he will still have his moments. This will be a case of almost everyone being wrong or almost everyone being right.
Justin Howe: It's hard to take much away from Jones, who topped 1,500 scrimmage yards last year. But it's even harder to project a repeat of his RB1 explosion. Jones rode a wave of long receptions (6 of 20+ yards) and touchdowns (19) in 2019, resulting in far bigger numbers than his 287 touches would suggest. Even if the Packers hadn't spent a second-round pick on A.J. Dillon, a Derrick Henry clone if ever there was one, Jones would be a textbook study in stat regression. We've likely already seen his volume upside, so an early pick of Jones is a prayer for more wild efficiency and another huge smattering of touchdowns.
Chad Parsons: Jones had a career year in 2019, especially fueled by an NFL-leading 19 touchdowns to lead the position. The mantra of 'listen to what NFL teams tell us with their moves' is vital for the Packers this offseason as two notable additions were blocking-centric Josiah Deguara on Day 2 as a tight end or H-back type and the supersized but athletic running back A.J. Dillon in the second round. Without quality wide receiver depth, look for more power running formations and A.J. Dillon to muscle his way up the depth chart in short order as the tweener-sized Jones is a flimsy bet to repeat his 2019 production, especially finding the end zone as a central reason he finished inside the Top 5.
Jeff Pasquino: Aaron Jones is in the final year of his rookie contract, and he is looking to build upon a career season in 2019 where he put up elite numbers thanks to 19 total touchdowns, 4.6 yards per carry and strong receiving numbers (39-474-3) to go along with his first 1,000-yard season. Jones will be pushed not only by Jamaal Williams but also rookie second-round pick A.J. Dillon, who will try and make a strong case to become the starter next year. Regardless of how or why, Jones will be highly motivated to put up similar numbers to land an elite tailback contract for next season, either in Green Bay or elsewhere.
Matt Waldman: As a player capable of delivering fantasy RB1, Jones is absolutely worth that designation. However, as a player likely to earn that production in his current situation, Jones is overvalued. Jones wants to extend his time in Green Bay, but the Packers chose to draft A.J. Dillon in the second round, a physical back known for his track record of handling high volumes without durability problems. Jones' first healthy season was last year and while, he possesses excellent vision, agility, slippery power, and good hands, it's clear the Packers don't trust him to stay healthy. Jones' top-10 production was largely touchdown-dependent in 2019 and with Dillon in the picture, it's likely Jones' production in this area takes a significant hit. It's also likely Jones will cede more playing time to Dillon even if he remains the lead back.
Player Receiving 5 Votes
Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville
Sigmund Bloom: Fournette is a lame-duck back whose value came mainly from volume last year, especially in the passing game. Chris Thompson isn't known for his durability, but he is known for being a very productive passing down back while playing under new Jaguars offensive coordinator Jay Gruden. Once the season is lost (which shouldn't take long), will the Jaguars want to see more of Ryquell Armstead and Devine Ozigbo to know how they fit in the team's future plans at running back? They already know where Fournette fits in 2021 - off of the roster.
James Brimacombe: Entering year four with the Jaguars, Leonard Fournette continues to have his up and downs with the franchise. He has been in constant trade talks and has also been in the news for off-field issues. It is tricky as you look at the numbers and Fournette gives you volume in both the running and receiving game as he finished with 1152 rushing and 522 receiving yards last season but lacked the ability to find the endzone finishing with only 3 touchdowns. Fournette is one of the hardest players to predict for 2020 based on his current situation with the Jaguars and the alone has me scared off of him as I think he has a 50/50 shot at being cut by the team before the season even begins.
Andy Hicks: It is hard to get excited about the prospects of Leonard Fournette in 2020. Jacksonville first of all tried to unload him for basically any draft capital they could get. They failed. He wasn’t offered a fifth year on his rookie deal. His attitude has been questioned and the team looks like it has its eyes past 2020. Fournette has demonstrated enough talent on the field to be a dominant fantasy back, but either the team doesn’t want to use him properly or the problem is with Fournette. A big concern, if he plays for the team, is the lack of touchdowns. Three is all he recorded in 2019 from well over 340 combined touches. How is 2020 going to be better?
Jeff Pasquino: Fournette has been the main offensive producer in Jacksonville, posting two 1,000-yard seasons in his first three NFL campaigns. Last year was his best year, rushing not only for 1,152 yards and three scores but also adding 522 receiving yards on 76 catches. The lack of touchdowns has been a problem for Fournette, with 10 combined scores as a rookie in 2017 but just six the next year with a career-low of only three last season. The Jaguars struggle on offense as a whole, which limits Fournette’s upside as defenses key on stopping him first and foremost. Jacksonville decided not to pick up his fifth-year contract option, so this will likely be his final season as a Jaguar. The downside risk is too high to take Fournette as early as his ADP suggests this year.
Jason Wood: Is there a team with more questions than the Jaguars? If any team is "tanking for Trevor (Lawrence)", it's Shad Khan's Jaguars. They kept a lame-duck coach, shed any big-contract they could, and did very little in free agency to credibly say to fans they plan on competing for a playoff spot in 2020. Bad teams rarely make for good investments, particularly at the running back position. So Fournette's situation is already tenuous, but that's to say nothing of veteran Chris Thompson's arrival. Thompson owned the third-down receiving role in Washington for the entirety of Jay Gruden's tenure; and Gruden is now the Jaguars' play-caller.
Players Receiving 4 Votes
Kareem Hunt, Cleveland
Andrew Davenport: Assuming that Hunt's role is going to come close to what he did last season is a dangerous assumption to make. With Kevin Stefanski in town, there is a very real possibility that Hunt's receiving work falls off and he plays second fiddle to Nick Chubb. Is there a path to stand-alone value for Hunt? Sure. But he's not being selected remotely near the point in the draft where those gambles should be made. Instead, he's being drafted as a producer who can contribute for fantasy starting lineups right out of the gate. That may happen, it may not, but the price is far too high to answer that question by sacrificing the players available when Hunt is being selected. Pass on the uncertainty at his ADP.
Andy Hicks: Kareem Hunt could start for many franchises in the NFL, but Cleveland is not one of them. He will be the backup to Nick Chubb and third-down back. Chubb is one of the best backs in the league and will dominate the carries and touchdowns. As was demonstrated last year, Hunt will see on average five carries a game and six targets. Can you get fantasy production from him? Sure, but his current price is putting him in the flex/borderline RB2 category. For that price, you can find backs that aren’t relying on the starter going down.
Dan Hindery: Hunt was very good in the second half of last season and should have a decent role in the Browns offense. When it all comes down to it, he is still just the backup to Nick Chubb, however. Cleveland is not an offensive juggernaut and has quite a few mouths to feed at the skill positions. Unless Chubb gets hurt, the upside is not very high. The balance of risk versus reward isn’t there to take Hunt at his current ADP.
Matt Waldman: As I mentioned when touting Nick Chubb as a value, Hunt is a fantasy RB1 talent playing in at mid-range fantasy RB3 situation, at best. Hunt may have out-produced Chubb at points last year but that was a different offense that lacked cohesion, direction, and well-performing coaches. This year, Kevin Stefanski's Kubiak-influenced scheme will feature one back and despite the juicy click-bait ideas of Chubb and Hunt on the field at the same time, the scheme will not use them at the same time for a significant number of snaps. The team added Andy Janovich at fullback and want to use the fullback and tight ends to lead the way for its best back, which is without a doubt, Chubb. Hunt will earn change-of-pace carries or a series at various points of a game and he may earn two-minute situations as a receiver but don't expect more than 40-50 catches from Hunt. Placing him in the same tier as Ronald Jones II is overstating his value unless you bet on Chubb getting hurt.
KeShawn Vaughn, Tampa Bay
Sigmund Bloom: Vaughn is clearly behind Ronald Jones II to begin the season, and LeSean McCoy and Dare Ogunbowale will get the passing down work. Unless Jones crashes and burns quickly, Vaughn will be a marginal part of the Bucs offense. He wasn't one of the top talents at running back in the NFL draft, so it's difficult to understand why he is a priority bench pick right now.
Chad Parsons: Vaughn barely offers a discount from Ronald Jones II' 2020 draft cost and yet is a late Day 2 rookie with a middling profile with a protracted (at best) offseason to find any early-season momentum for touches. LeSean McCoy is more competition for Vaughn as the RB2 than towards Jones as the RB1. Vaughn is on the Bishop Sankey spectrum as a metric prospect in a best-case by my measures, which makes him all situation-based if drafting him.
Jeff Pasquino: Tampa Bay drafted Vaughn in the third round of the 2020 NFL draft, and they expect him to push to contribute in his first season. Vaughn has strong passing-down skills as a receiver, blocker, and pass protector. Even if Ronald Jones II keeps his starter status, Vaughn is a strong candidate to see action on passing downs and contribute as part of a committee approach in the Buccaneers' backfield. Given the uncertainty as to who will start and get most of the work this year, however, drafting Vaughn too early is not recommended.
Jason Wood: Rookies are always over-drafted, and it's particularly egregious this year given the pandemic and how much harder it'll be for first-year players to acclimate. Vaughn doesn't have the skill set or pedigree to assume he's the No. 1 in Tampa Bay; it's more likely he has a career as a reasonably sound No. 2. Bruce Arians unequivocally declared Ronald Jones II the starter at the start of camp, and LeSean McCoy signed on as the No. 2. A lot has to go wrong in Tampa Bay for Vaughn to see major snaps in 2020.
Player Receiving 3 Votes
Todd Gurley, Atlanta
Sigmund Bloom: It feels like forever ago that Gurley was the most valuable player in fantasy football. We know that he is battling a degenerative condition in his knee, and it will be a week-to-week situation to watch. He'll need to consistently score touchdowns to pay off on ADP with his passing game involvement tapering off from previous highs. Ito Smith gives the Falcons a better passing down back than the Rams had last year to further complicate projections for Gurley. There are too many ifs and buts to draft Gurley as a starter for your fantasy team.
Jeff Haseley: Most people are either all-in or all-out on Todd Gurley as a fantasy option this year. He is coming off three consecutive double-digit touchdown seasons and Atlanta desperately needs a running back to handle the load. Gurley fits the bill. The downside is that he signed only a one-year deal, which suggests Atlanta may not be fully convinced he's healthy enough to sign to a longer deal. His degenerative knee condition is a concern. How long can he keep handling the load? He could be a big producer or the exact opposite and generally, the risk is too much for me to gamble on with such a high pick.
Dan Hindery: It is hard to invest a premium pick in a back who reportedly has a degenerative knee condition and who “walked with a noticeable limp” during the early phases of training camp. The recent news makes it feel less likely we will ever see the old Todd Gurley. Even if he is not as explosive as he used to be, he can still be a productive back. However, there are other backs with similar upside and much less risk available later.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
Cam Akers, LA Rams
Andrew Davenport: It can be problematic to listen to coachspeak, but when coaches consistently toe the same line it can't be totally ignored. In this case, Sean McVay has continued to say that he likes his running back room and that he envisions all of them playing this year. Akers has the ability to take over the backfield, but it is worth asking - when he's seen so little on-field practice time, what is the earliest point at which he could become a fantasy force? He's got plenty of competition in the running back room with several guys who know the offense well, and it's highly unlikely he's usable in lineups until October or later. Even more concerning is that there is always the looming possibility that he earns a role, but it's an early-down role splitting time with Darrell Henderson for 10 carries a game, shared receiving work, and getting to watch Malcolm Brown punch in short touchdowns. Some of these red flags might not end up being a reality, but expecting Akers to deliver on his draft-day price is a risky proposition. There are too many obstacles to take the chance at his ADP.
Andy Hicks: Cam Akers is being drafted as the presumed starter for the Rams this year following the departure of Todd Gurley. This is not the situation or time to make that assumption. Maybe by seasons end, Akers has the job, maybe he doesn’t. Last year's third-round pick Darrell Henderson and veteran Malcolm Brown will know the system and are more than handy in their own right. Brown himself had five touchdowns last year and Henderson had two games last year with over 10 rushing attempts. If we are going to be real this looks like a running back by committee team with a below-average offensive line. Even if one guy gets the job full time I’m not sure there is enough to be a fantasy starter. If this is a committee then it will end in fantasy disappointment.
Nick Chubb, Cleveland
Justin Howe: Over the past five seasons, we've seen 32 seasons of 250+ PPR points from a running back. Only four of those were achieved with fewer than 40 receptions, and Chubb doesn't have a prayer of reaching that mark, so he's at a huge disadvantage among the RB1 crowd. Kareem Hunt is the Browns' preferred receiving back; he's the main reason Chubb only caught 11 balls over the final 8 weeks last year. Those drafting Chubb as an RB1 are banking heavily on long runs and big touchdown numbers, which isn't a shrewd move in the second and third rounds.
Jeff Pasquino: Nick Chubb has been the highlight in the Cleveland offense over his first two seasons, with last season marking the high water mark for Chubb with nearly 1,500 yards rushing and eight touchdowns. The Browns struggled for offensive balance with not enough protection in the passing game, but Cleveland addressed the offensive line via free agency and the draft. This year's offensive philosophy is likely to favor running the ball more under new head coach Kevin Stefanski, but what needs to be noted is that once Kareem Hunt was in shape after an eight-game suspension, Chubb's workload decreased in a semi-committee approach. Chubb still had three 100-yard games over the final six games last year, but it would not be surprising for Chubb to lose some work to Hunt as the Browns look to keep both backs healthy. The good news is that Chubb has averaged over 5.0 YPC, so even with fewer touches, he can post RB1 fantasy numbers.
J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore
James Brimacombe: I like Dobbins in the dynasty community right now but as far as redraft goes his price is just too high. The Ravens still have Mark Ingram who is coming off an RB8 season who looks to be the guy in Baltimore this year as he had 15 touchdowns in 15 games last season. Behind Ingram, there is also Gus Edwards and Justice Hill right alongside J.K. Dobbins. You can make a case for the Ravens being the perfect fit for Dobbins running style but with an RB8 from 2019 in front of him and two other capable backs around him I just don't see a scenario for him to have the type of season that justifies his current price.
Andrew Davenport: There is a pretty compelling case that Baltimore drafted Dobbins for 2021, not this year. The Ravens front office, one of the best in the league, doesn't make it a habit of being passive and letting things happen to them. Rather, they solve issues before they become an emergency. With Mark Ingram an easy candidate to be cut for cap room after this year, the Ravens moved to secure their runner of the future to pair with Lamar Jackson. The thing is, for redraft purposes, there is no indication that either Ingram or Gus Edwards is about to cede control of their spots on the depth chart. Even if Dobbins is able to claw his way up the depth chart it will take significant time to do so, and is far from a guaranteed result. Pass on Dobbins at his ADP for players with a better path to production.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City
Justin Howe: Obviously, any starting Chiefs RB is one for fantasy folk to track. There's a good deal of potential for efficiency and touchdowns, after all, in the league's most potent offense. Still, it's much more shrewd to chase full-on volume than big efficiency numbers. And even with Damien Williams out, it's hard to project Edwards to a full workhorse role. Andy Reid is loath to run rookies into the ground - nor even to trust them as a lead back. Edwards-Helaire will need to both dominate the backfield AND shred with week-after-week efficiency to match his skyrocketing ADP. He's tempting, but there's so much more proven upside in (and even a bit below) this range.
Matt Waldman: I get the arguments in favor of Edwards-Helaire earning top-10 RB production because he'll earn the first shot to the lead ballcarrier in a potent Chiefs offense. Considering that he's not as good of an inside runner as Kareem Hunt and the Chiefs have a greater depth of backs on its depth chart than when Hunt earned 79 percent of the backfield's workload during his first two years in Kansas City, I'm pessimistic that Edwards-Helaire will earn even 70 percent of the workload. Hunt's best year as a Chief came with Alex Smith, who was Captain Check-Down compared to Patrick Mahomes II. The idea that Edwards-Helaire will earn north of 60 receptions, much less 70-80, is rash excitement. I like Edwards-Helaire's ceiling at the low end of the top-15 but I'm out if the value is inside the top 10.
Derrick Henry, Tennessee
Phil Alexander: Henry is a dominant rusher, but any running back drafted in Round 1 should be involved in all phases on offense to avoid getting scripted out of games. Henry's 24 targets from a year ago make him too one-dimensional to pick ahead of all-purpose backs that typically go later in the first round.
Ryan Hester: Check out what I contributed to our Least Favorite Player to Draft in Round 1 piece for more, but Henry's lack of pass-catching skills and reliance on touchdowns is scary. Round 1 players should provide high floors and high ceilings, not one or the other.
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas
Phil Alexander: Although Jacobs' goal is to catch 60 passes this season, all indications are the Raiders have no plans on increasing his role as a pass-catcher. The team re-signed long-time satellite back, Jalen Richard, and drafted offensive weapon, Lynn Bowden, whom GM Mike Mayock went out of his way to call a running back in his post-draft presser. Perhaps the Raiders offense has improved enough to tack a touchdown or two onto Jacobs' projection, but as long as Las Vegas remains unwilling to take advantage of his obvious talents as a receiver, the upside here is capped.
Ryan Hester: As a noted late-round quarterback and late-round tight strategist, I'd still select a player from one of those positions if the choice was them or Jacobs. He's a one-dimensional back on an offense that won't be among the league's most effective in red-zone and goal-line situations. He won't catch many passes and won't make many splash plays. Backs with similar profiles can be had later.
Sony Michel, New England
Jeff Haseley: Sony Michel's constant dealings with lingering injuries to his knee and foot have me concerned. Not only is it difficult to predict the success of a Patriots running back, but now injury risk is included. To make matters worse for Michel, Cam Newton could steal some of his goal-line carries, making it more difficult to predict his production on a weekly basis.
Jason Wood: Michel was a personal favorite coming into the league from Georgia, but it hasn't worked out. With Michel struggling for consistency on elite Tom Brady-led Patriots units, it's hard to get excited about his fantasy value in 2020 with either Jarrett Stidham or Cam Newton under center. Michel hasn't cracked 1,000 yards rushing in either season, which would be fine if he was used as a receiver. But few running backs with his snap percentage are less productive in the passing game; he has just 31 targets in two seasons. That's to say nothing of the foot surgery Michel is recovering from, which could keep him out of action into the regular season. With Damien Harris, James White, and now Lamar Miller in the mix, Michel could easily be fantasy irrelevant. He’s being over-drafted even if you think he’ll be ready in Week One.
Devin Singletary, Buffalo
Ryan Hester: Rushing quarterbacks typically don't involve their backs in the passing game (they tuck and run instead), but that isn't the only concern for Singletary. The team also drafted Zack Moss in the third round (the same round in which they picked Singletary in 2019). Between a lack of pass-catching upside and a capable backfield-splitter, there are other players around Singletary's price that offer more.
Matt Waldman: Singletary is the little engine that could. He was also a little more dependent on an excellent run-blocking offensive line than I want to see from a back who will be likely be sharing time with a rookie who is known for yards after contact in Zack Moss. Fifty-three percent of Singletary's 2019 rushing yardage came before contact in Buffalo. While he breaks tackles at a terrific rate, it comes mostly in the open field. I appreciate Singletary's skills, but I think Moss will earn a greater share of touches than Frank Gore and it could limit Singletary's upside too much when examining where he's drafted.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
James Conner, Pittsburgh
Andy Hicks: His 2018 season was massive and all, but looking at the 2019 season of James Conner and we get every indication that his future lies as a backup or committee back. Just like with JuJu Smith-Schuster, the Steelers are drafting a replacement every year in roughly the same slot. In the case of Conner, we have Jaylen Samuels, Benny Snell, and this year, Anthony McFarland. With Conner in the final year of his rookie deal, it is unlikely he is in Pittsburgh next year. He will be given every chance to start and keep the job, but the team will have one eye on the future and we will see others given the chance to earn a role.
Austin Ekeler, LA Chargers
Chad Parsons: Ekeler enjoyed a career year with Melvin Gordon holding out for much of the season and returning to less-than-previous production later in 2019. Ekeler was optimized to the tune of 108 targets, second-most of the running back position, and scored a regression-demanding eight receiving touchdowns. Fast-forward to 2020 and, while Melvin Gordon is permanently gone to Denver, so is Philip Rivers to Indianapolis. Rivers was a critical factor to Ekeler's success (and running backs in the passing game for years now for the Chargers). Enter Tyrod Taylor, who was categorically poor in his last starter stint in Cleveland, or rookie Justin Herbert under center and Ekeler, in addition to a sharp receiving touchdown regression, is due for a downturn in overall efficiency with shorter drives and a drop in likely quarterback play.
Antonio Gibson, Washington
Andrew Davenport: The rocket up the draft board for Gibson after Derrius Guice was released is quite something. The Washington offense doesn't have a whole lot going for it that places it anywhere other than the bottom third of the league. They have quarterback uncertainty, a mediocre offensive line, and a dearth of playmakers. That does create a vacuum into which Gibson can step, but there is a very crowded depth chart in Washington, and making enough opportunities for Gibson to capitalize on where he's being drafted is tough to do. Keep in mind also that Gibson had 79 career touches at Memphis. He is electric. He plays for an offense that needs him. But betting on a player so seldom used in college to step into a poor offense and deliver on his current ADP is asking for a lot.
Jordan Howard, Miami
Sigmund Bloom: The best argument for taking Howard is Matt Breida's inability to stay healthy, but even if Breida goes down, can Howard make enough of his opportunity in Miami's running game to be fantasy relevant. Ryan Fitzpatrick led the team in rushing last year and running backs had a grand total of five touchdowns. Then there's the risk of Howard's shoulder issue that cost him seven games last year popping up again. He's not the upside back you are looking for once it's time to stock your bench.
David Johnson, Houston
Justin Howe: Johnson has milked a crazy amount of name value from his one (1) big fantasy season. The dirty secret is that Johnson is a mess of red flags: health (18 missed games out of his last 48), efficiency as a runner (3.9 yards per rush since 2016), and the fact that he's already passed his NFL peak (turning 29 in December). His new home is enticing, as Bill O'Brien's Texans tend to focus on a single back; they even made Carlos Hyde's carcass useful last year. But receiving specialist Duke Johnson Jr looms to steal receptions, and the Texans don't throw enough to support a pair of 40-catch backs. Johnson carries a low floor for his RB2 ADP, and his ceiling isn't nearly as attractive as it was three or four years ago.
Kerryon Johnson, Detroit
Phil Alexander: Johnson missed 14 games over his two NFL seasons and looked like a below-league-average running back before a meniscus tear all but ended his sophomore campaign in Week 7. The Lions brought in D'Andre Swift early in the second round of this year's draft. Swift is more versatile and a better all-around player than Johnson. He's also the more likely of the two to benefit from the pass-heavy game scripts the Lions defense figures to land the team in.
Boston Scott, Philadelphia
Jeff Pasquino: The Eagles found a solid backup option behind Miles Sanders last year with former practice squad running back Boston Scott. Scott is more of a scatback than a feature back, and he can step in once and a while to replace Sanders, but he looked better last season in December due to his fresh legs. Philadelphia does not want to rely on Scott as their only back up for Sanders, so if the starter goes down, expect more of a committee approach - either with UDFA Mike Warren or a veteran teaming with Scott.
