This article is about a 16-minute read.
The series:
- Draft Strategy with an Early 1st-Round Pick
- Draft Strategy with a Middle 1st-Round Pick
- Draft Strategy with a Late 1st-Round Pick
How you begin a draft can alter the entire composition of your roster. And where you pick in the first round can make all the difference in your early-draft strategy.
Let's talk about your game plan when you have an early pick in the first round. How do you prefer to start a draft when you pick between the 1.01 and 1.04 spots? Do you map out your first few picks? What do you like your roster to look like when drafting from these spots?
Jeff Haseley
If I have a pick in slots 1-4, I generally will be targeting a running back, unless it's a Superflex league. For topic purposes, we'll focus on this not being a Superflex league. My second-round pick will either be Travis Kelce, George Kittle, or the best running back available. I don't need to focus on quarterback or wide receiver yet. The third pick is dependent on whom I selected in the second round.
If second-round running back - my third-round pick is George Kittle or best wide receiver on the board, unless a big name running back is still available, like Miles Sanders, Josh Jacobs, Austin Ekeler. The likelihood of either of these being available in the early third is rare.
If second-round tight end - my third-round pick is the best running back on the board, no questions asked. I won't go into round four without rostering a running back. If I take a tight end early, I generally do not target a quarterback early, like Patrick Mahomes II or Lamar Jackson. It's difficult to sustain a good draft strategy by drafting both a tight end and a quarterback early.
If my first three picks are RB-TE-WR/RB - Pick four is likely a wide receiver, especially if pick three was a running back. If pick three was a wide receiver then I am looking at running back, preferably David Johnson, James Conner, or Raheem Mostert. Otherwise, the pick is a wide receiver.
If my first three picks are RB-RB-WR my fourth pick is usually a wide receiver or perhaps my third running back if David Johnson or James Conner is available. If I don't draft Kelce or Kittle, I won't target a tight end until after Evan Engram or maybe Hunter Henry is off the board. My target is Jared Cook or Rob Gronkowski.
Chad Parsons
With an early draft slot, I am pretty likely to exit the first three rounds with at least two running backs. With an earlier Round 1 position, running back is a lock on my board. I am more flexible at the 2/3 turn with mixing in a wide receiver or not. Mike Evans is one of my favorites at receiver to consider at the 2/3 turn. Todd Gurley and Leonard Fournette are higher-volume running backs who are a luxury as my RB2 within an early draft roster construction.
Ryan Hester
I map out my first two or three selections regardless of my draft position, but it's easier to do that with a top-four pick due to the certainty that you'll have a high-level running back at the top of your roster.
From there, I do some mock drafts (using the Footballguys Draft Dominator, of course) where I select a tight end at the end of the second and see how I like my team. Then I'll do some drafts where I go with three running backs to start just as a way of seeing if the RB surplus is worth the weakness at WR.
It's always a good strategy to enter your draft with a plan. But be flexible because no draft has ever gone exactly how typical mock drafts go.
Phil Alexander
Picking at one of these slots is a gift this year given the gap between Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara, and the rest of the field at running back.
After picking one of those guys, I'm coming out of the Round 2-3 turn with at least one running back, and more often two. Usually, the choices come from the tier that includes Todd Gurley, Leonard Fournette, James Conner, Melvin Gordon, and David Johnson. All of these guys project for the volume I'm after in my RB2/Flex slots. Non-running backs I would consider in this area include George Kittle, Adam Thielen, and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Kittle provides a substantial edge at tight end over every non-Travis Kelce team in your league. Thielen and Smith-Schuster are both devalued coming off down years, despite realistic chances to lead the NFL in targets.
Rounds 4-6 are the sweet spots for high upside wide receivers. If I were carrying three running backs at this point, D.J. Chark, T.Y. Hilton, Terry McLaurin, A.J. Green, and Marquise Brown are on my shortlist for my next two picks. Brandin Cooks or Will Fuller are two of my favorite WR3 targets in the following rounds. One of them is going to exceed their ADP expectations. I'm just not sure which.
From there, I'm making each subsequent pick with upside in mind. If I didn't draft Kittle, I would consider Rob Gronkowski in the middle rounds. But more often, I'm waiting on a tight end until the double-digit rounds, and coming away with a pair of breakout candidates. Quarterback scoring will be tightly bunched together after Patrick Mahomes II and Lamar Jackson, so I'm waiting there too. Carson Wentz is my ideal target as soon as Round 8.
Andy Hicks
If we have a scoring system that heavily favors quarterbacks or tight ends then Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes II, Travis Kelce, and George Kittle could come into play. Outside of that, we are going running back, but I might be convinced to take Michael Thomas over Alvin Kamara with the fourth pick.
I would try and assess what players are going to be my starters by looking at likely choices in rounds two to seven. What tight end or quarterback will be there if I leave the positions until later? Who will be my second and third running back?
Wide receiver is the position that gives me the greatest flexibility this year to move and adapt in the draft. Every following draft pick should have the best wide receiver choice versus the other positions and making a determination as to value.
In an ideal world, I have two or three running backs and two or three wide receivers after five rounds with great choices still available at tight end and quarterback.
Jeff Pasquino
The closer I am to the front, the more I tend to look at ADP and mock drafts. Drafting close to an extreme (Picks 1, 2, 11, and 12) the more I am concerned about a run happening in those 20-22 picks between my two selections. That's why it is critical to check both ADP and run a few mock drafts with the Draft Dominator using your league's setup and scoring rules. If I foresee a run that will decimate a tier or two of a position, I am far more likely to address that position with my second of the two picks at the turn (for example, 3.02 if I pick second). I want to START a run, not FINISH a run. If I take a quarterback at 7.02, I really want everyone else to take at least one before my 8.11 pick so that the value at the other spots falls back to me.
Now if I have the second or third pick, I will track closely the 1-2 teams in front of me to see what positions they likely want - and that will influence my FIRST pick for the turn (for example, picking at 2.10 and I see Team 1 and Team 2 took running backs but Kittle or Kelce are there - I am taking a tight end and let them take something else). So to say it another way, picking second or third, I want to FINISH a tier with my FIRST of two picks near the turn.
Lastly, picking fourth is almost like having a middle of the round pick, so I will take the best values and let the draft come to me as much as possible. I would be rather unlikely to take more than two of any position in the first 4-5 rounds, just to let value fall to me at all positions and take the best player available.
Dan Hindery
If I am drafting in the top four, I know before the draft even starts that I am going to be drafting a running back in the first round: Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, or Alvin Kamara.
Looking at ADP and players likely to be available in each round, I also know I will probably be drafting wide receivers in the 4th and 5th rounds.
The second and third rounds are where I do not have a firm plan and am just going to be taking the best player available regardless of position. Given that I already have a strong RB1 and know that there is a lot of depth at wide receiver, there is not a sense of pressure that I have to address a certain position with these two picks. Some of the players on my shortlist near the 2/3 turn are Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes II, George Kittle, Kenny Golladay, Mike Evans, and James Conner.
Adam Harstad
Like Dan, I’m not really planning my drafts in advance.
With an early pick, it’s easy to have a very short list and essentially know who I’m taking in the first. (Is my pick #1? I’m taking McCaffrey. Is my pick #2? I’m taking McCaffrey if he falls and Barkley if he doesn’t. And so on.)
After that, though, I’m mostly just chasing value as it falls, and it’s impossible to know in advance who that might be. For me the main point of preparation is to be ready to adapt on the fly to changing circumstances.
Bob Henry
I'll echo what Adam and Dan have said regarding how I prepare or layout my draft board ahead of time. If I know I'm in the top four, I don't need to overthink anything. I'm taking whoever falls to me with a smile. There are discrepancies in who people have in their top four, but I'll gladly take them in just about any order, but I would definitely prefer the top three - McCaffrey, Barkley, and Elliott. With the fourth spot, it's Dalvin Cook or Alvin Kamara. I have them projected with about one point of separation, albeit Cook with a higher points-per-game, and the slightest of edges. Having said that, I've split my shares of these two and I couldn't find fault with anyone taking one over the other. Kamara may be slightly safer, but we're splitting hairs.
The closer I am to the turn, the better, and like the other guys, I am targeting a shortlist of players at the 2nd/3rd round turn. It's doubtful that Kelce or Kittle lasts that long, but stranger things have happened and I won't let Kittle get past me with any of those last few picks in the second round. The closer to the turn, the less likely a tight end is in that mix, and I'll probably not take Jackson or Mahomes unless it's closer to the 3.04 spot. With an elite back in the fold, the next two picks could easily be receivers or a falling back like Aaron Jones now that Clyde Edwards-Helaire is locked into a starting role and first-round selection. I can say confidently, I'm not taking Gurley, Fournette, Gordon or Bell anywhere from 2.09 to 3.04. The only other back I consider in the early third is James Conner.
That brings me back to the receivers. A bye week scenario to be wary of if you draft 1.01 is taking McCaffrey and then having potentially the top-rated receivers at the turn looking like D.J. Moore and Mike Evans. Moore and McCaffrey on the same team, obviously, but Evans also shares the same bye week. We've discussed this in other chats where you may not like Kenny Golladay this early, but he, Allen Robinson, Godwin, Evans, and Cooper are options.
It's good to have targets in mind for the first three rounds as well as a semblance of how you want to play the next four rounds depending on how the dominoes fall. Do some mocks in the Draft Dominator, even use tools like the Wisdom of the Crowd to get a sense of what others will do with the scenarios that might unfold for you.
One last thing I'll add: Don't be overly fixated on ADP and don't be afraid to go get the players you want to build the roster the way you want. ADP is great, but if you're near the turn you will need to take players you want earlier than the ADP says they should. That's ok. Just as you will gladly draft a player who falls into your lap, go get the ones you are most excited to draft because it only makes your Sundays that much more enjoyable.
Jeff Pasquino
To what Bob said - yes, for the most part, don't sweat ADP. That's just your source of who is likely gone by your next picks. If someone is on that list that you don't expect to get back to you, don't be afraid to pull the trigger.
Jason Wood
Spending as much time as I do (along with Maurile, Bob, and David) in maintaining the site's projections, by the time the draft rolls around I very much trust my process. That means that beyond the first pick in this equation, I have no set plan. Every draft is different and ultimately I'm going to trust my board.
If I'm picking in the top 4 picks, I'm bummed to get No. 4 because I don't think Alvin Kamara or any other running back deserves to be slotted with Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, and Saquon Barkley. If I have the choice of those draft slots, I'm leaning more and more against passing on 1.01 because I think we're not properly assessing McCaffrey's risks. We're assuming because he was the clear #1 last year, he's going to be this year. Yet, there are so many changes and unanswered questions facing him. Matt Rhule has never been an NFL head coach. Joe Brady not only has never called NFL plays before, but he also wasn't the primary play-caller at LSU, either. The offensive line, which wasn't a strength, to begin with, appears worse on paper. And even if we assume Brady and Rhule are successful in their new roles, why would we assume their system will give McCaffrey 120+ targets and a workhorse amount of carries? That's to say nothing of the unproven status of Teddy Bridgewater. Yes, he's an upgrade from what they dealt with last year, but Bridgewater had three+ good games last year for New Orleans but has dozens (including a few last year with the Saints) where he was unable or unwilling to push the ball downfield.
But suffice to say, McCaffrey could see a big dropoff in his workload and still justify a top pick. I'd prefer 1.02 or 1.03 and would take Barkley at 1.02 in PPR formats and Elliott in standard, and gladly take the other at 1.03.
At 1.04, I'm not at all confident in my choice. In best ball drafts it's varied and never feels as good as having one of the first three picks.
As I said, I'll let the board come to me and take the best players on my board at the 2/3 turn. But assuming I start the draft with a running back, ideally, I would like to come out of the 2/3 turn with two running backs, if possible. But it's not mandatory. There are situations where I'll grab Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes II, Travis Kelce, or George Kittle in the second round. The position I'm least likely to draft is wide receiver, although again there could be situations where my projections and custom VBD values point to grabbing back-to-back receivers in the second and third rounds.
Trust your rankings. Trust your projections. Never fall prey to ADP and trying to win by worrying about optimizing your choices versus ADP. That's how you end up losing the players you're most excited about.
Justin Howe
In this spot, I'm coming out of the first round with an RB1 that's a true anchor. Hopefully. There are no blow-your-doors-off receivers to throw a wrench into the decision, nor a -era Rob Gronkowski as a chic pick to threaten 18 touchdowns. If I open with McCaffrey, Barkley, Kamara, or Elliott, I have the most crucial spot on my roster, RB1, sewn up.
With that in mind, some of the RB2 pressure is eased. I'm drafting that RB1 to be a weekly plug-and-play, so running back depth isn't quite as important as if my top guy were, say, Miles Sanders. I don't have to build a stockpile of steady backs that'll need to fill in the RB1 gaps so often. In other words: in Rounds 2-4, I get to chase the top two tight ends and some of the more fun wideout plays. As Jeff and Phil and others have pointed out, there are so many guys with WR1 upside on the board in Round 4 and beyond. Hitting big on two or even just one of them can win the flex position more weeks than not.
To go full-circle, though, all that wide receiver depth means I can wait even more at receiver than at running back. And adding a strong RB2 in Round 3 does two things: it bolsters both RB2 and Flex, and it provides some insurance against a McCaffrey/Barkley/Kamara/Elliott injury/flameout. If I open things up RB-TE-RB, I can fill out Rounds 4-8 with a full stable of high-ceiling receivers while still keeping things tight at running back.
So, I can go something like Kamara-Kelce-Leonard Fournette-A.J. Brown and feel well-insulated - as long as I can keep stockpiling WR2s over the next few rounds. Or, with my stud RB1 on board, I can go Kamara-Kelce-Evans-Brown and flirt hard with flex-winning upside every week. As with most dilemmas, I'd keep the pre-planning flexible and wait to see how the draft falls. That's what would determine my course of action: how deep are the running back and wide receiver positions looking when each of my picks rolls around?
Jordan McNamara
I agree with Phil and Dan in laying out Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, and Alvin Kamara as the top four picks. With the Clyde Edwards-Helaire buzz intensifying now that Damien Williams has opted out, it is important to say he does not belong in this tier. I think it is important to plan out the rest of your board when making picks in the second, third, and fourth rounds. There may be options for a quarterback (Mahomes or Jackson) or tight end (Kelce or Kittle) in that second round range, but I am passing because I feel confident in later options at those positions. In the first round rounds, I would like to leave with at least two running backs and a wide receiver. The fourth spot will be dependent on how the board falls.
Andrew Davenport
I agree with the consensus that I'm taking a running back with one of the top four picks. I'm not as high on Barkley as others are, so I'm actually hoping for the 3-hole, but regardless, I'm taking a running back. I think you can make an argument for Michael Thomas at #4, but even if he might be appealing over Alvin Kamara or Dalvin Cook, with the positional scarcity at running back I think it's probably safer to talk Thomas at the 5 or 6 slot but not in the top four.
I think that leaves anyone at the top of the draft set up well for the way most drafts unfold - running back heavy early, plenty of wide receiver depth in the middle rounds, and fill out the roster from there.
However, the thing I have realized going through drafts from the top four spots is that the running back options most often available at the end of the second round are guys that are a reach there. The early running back run in most drafts usually leaves me staring at a group of guys like Todd Gurley, LeVeon Bell, and Leonard Fournette, for my second pick. I'm usually not going to take one of those guys. I'm after Travis Kelce (unlikely), George Kittle (more likely), or one of the top receivers that has possibly fallen as well.
The next pick in the third round sets up well for one of those running backs I mentioned above. I'm not enamored with most of them, but if I pass in the third on those guys I really don't like the running backs that would be my RB2 at the end of the fourth. So despite not loving any of that group a whole lot that early - Gurley, Bell, Fournette, Jonathan Taylor, James Conner - I always feel compelled to take one in the third anyway. If I don't, it sets up the rest of my draft poorly and I feel like I'm chasing too much the rest of the way.
In the fourth, we are off to the races at the wide receiver spot usually. That's where I'm trying to take a strong WR2 (unless I went tight end in the second, in which case it's my WR1), and then follow it up with a couple more wide receivers in the next couple rounds.
In general, drafting from the first four spots has left me feeling pretty pigeonholed about how I'm approaching the first few rounds. It isn't a bad thing necessarily, but I don't see a ton of ability to maneuver because of the running back scarcity and the wide receiver depth. It can always be done differently, but this rough outline I've laid out has worked best for me.
David Dodds
My first round is easy. I will gladly select my highest ranking running back.
- RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR
- RB Saquon Barkley, NYG
- RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL
- RB Alvin Kamara, NO
The second and third-round selections are defined both by my projections and my general desire to wait at both quarterback and tight end. If Travis Kelce or George Kittle make it back to my second-round pick, I would gladly take either. But the likelihood of that happening is rare.
And although I love both Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes II as players, I prefer waiting much later to grab my starting quarterback. Both superstars are clear passes until much later in the third-round for me. For 90+% of my drafts, I am selecting the best running back or wide receiver on my draft board in the second and third rounds.
These are the players I find myself drafting the most often from this position:
- RB Aaron Jones, GB (Worth = 14, ADP = 21)
- WR Chris Godwin, TB (Worth = 18, ADP = 19)
- WR Mike Evans, TB (Worth = 21, ADP = 24)
In the fourth round, the players with ADP in the 40-50 range that I find myself gravitating to are as follows:
- No quarterbacks
- WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Worth = 34, ADP = 44)
- TE Zach Ertz, PHI (Worth = 37, ADP = 47)
- WR A.J. Brown, TEN (Worth = 39, ADP = 43)
- WR Cooper Kupp, LAR (Worth = 40, ADP = 41)