Photo: Jim Brown, USA Today Sports

Guiding DFS Tournament Principles

There are a number of strategies that are key to winnings large-field tournaments on FanDuel. First, we need to identify the “good chalk” — the popular plays who we want to build our lineups around. Second, we need to identify the less-popular plays who still have similar upside to the most popular players at their position. Third, we need to decide which young breakout candidates to target. Lastly, we need to add some positive correlations to our rosters by choosing which games are best to stack.

Every week, we will talk about these principles and identify the top targets in each category. These players will be listed below by category along with their projected popularity and then broken down in more depth in the position-by-position breakdowns in the following section.

1. Identify the good chalk

Our whole lineup should not be sub-5% rostered guys. Popular plays each week are usually popular for a reason, and we always need to remember that the number one goal is to score as many points as possible. We do not want to get too cute and build our entire rosters around longer shot plays.

The chalk is often especially attractive at running back. Volume is key, and we usually know in advance which running backs are likely to see 20+ touches. We want to build our lineups around those running backs, especially on FanDuel where it is harder to get lucky with low-volume receiving backs due to the 0.5 PPR scoring.

The following players are worth considering as core lineup pieces despite their popularity this week. Please note, the projected percent-rostered numbers listed in parentheses are calculated by Devin Knotts and updated daily throughout the week. Please check here for Devin’s latest up-to-the minute projections.

Week 11 Review

Dalvin Cook came through as the highest-scoring running back as major chalk. Taysom Hill was the most obvious chalk of the season at tight end and came through in a big way. Keenan Allen was a slam dunk as expected at wide receiver.

Week 12 good chalk

Dalvin Cook (37%) and Keenan Allen (20%) have earned permanent residence in our “good chalk” section for the rest of the 2020 season.

Travis Kelce (15%) and Darren Waller (13%) should be even chalkier than they are. Both should be on as many tournament rosters as we can fit them onto this week.

2. Build uniqueness without sacrificing too much upside or floor.

We know that we do not want to avoid the chalky plays entirely. However, we also do not want to have lineups that are too chalky. Ideally, we want to have at least two sub-5% players in every lineup to increase our chances of placing highly in large-field tournaments. The key is to do so without sacrificing too much upside. Game theory demands we consider what our competitors are doing and what the majority of the rosters we are competing with will look like.

The easiest way to get the best of both worlds (high upside on unpopular plays) is to target top players in what are perceived to be difficult matchups. The crowd can sometimes get too carried away with using weekly matchups to make their roster decisions. This gives savvy players an opportunity to roster top talents with similar fantasy projections to the chalk at a fraction of the popularity. If you hit on the right lower-rostered player, you quickly separate yourself from the pack and give yourself a chance to win the big money.

Week 11 Review

While everyone played Jakobi Meyers, Damiere Byrd was a fantastic pivot. He finished as a top three wide receiver on the slate while appearing in very few lineups. Curtis Samuel was listed and written up here as a top low-popularity play and he came through for up with a Top 6 wide receiver score.

Week 12 Under the Radar

For some reason, Tyreek Hill (6%) is not projected to be popular this week. He looks like an excellent pivot off of the chalkier options at wide receiver.

Taysom Hill (5%) has gone from chalk to relatively under the radar despite massive rushing upside.

3. Show up to the party early

The surest path to low-priced upside is through talented young players who have yet to breakout. We need to be aggressive in rostering rookies and second-year players before they become proven, popular, and expensive. In large tournaments, these are the types of opportunities we must leverage to get an edge on the field. In the long run, it is better to risk jumping the gun sometimes as opposed to being too conservative and consistently missing out on breakout games from future stars.

Week 11 Review

Rookie running backs Antonio Gibson and J.K. Dobbins were keys to success on the slate. Both finished amongst the top scorers on the slate and were salary cap savers.

Week 12 Breakout Targets

Michael Pittman has had a couple solid games but has yet to truly break out. In a huge AFC South matchup, he has the potential to become the next rookie wide receiver to smash through.

Taysom Hill fits in here even after the big Week 11 performance. In his second NFL start, we could see Hill establish himself as a fantasy force to be reckoned with.

4. Stack to win

Stacking is a common strategy for good reason. If you are not adding strong correlations to your rosters, you are making life extra difficult. Stacking increases your odds of the winning a large-field tournament because if you pick the correct games to target, you can land on a group of players who all hit their ceilings in the same week because of a positive game environment.

The best way to build correlated lineups is to stack your quarterback with one or two of his top pass catchers while also rostering one of the top offensive threats from the opposing team. We call rostering an offensive player who is going against your primary quarterback stack “running it back.” If the game is a shootout, you have a great chance of finding yourself near the top of the leaderboard.

Week 11 Review

We highlighted the Vikings passing game stack here last week as a strong pivot off of the Dalvin cook chalk. Kirk Cousins and Adam Thielen ended up being the week’s best stack. We also recommended Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen and that duo came through for us in a big way.

Week 12 top stacks

It is not cheap, but Patrick Mahomes II to Tyreek Hill and/or Travis Kelce looks like the week’s best stack.

We can game stack the Bills-Chargers matchup with both Josh Allen and Justin Herbert looking like elite options while Keenan Allen and Stefon Diggs both possess slate-breaking upside.

Position-by-position breakdowns

Quarterback

Taysom Hill, New Orleans ($7,300 — 5%)

While he certainly is not the slam dunk play he was last week when priced as a $4,500 tight end, Hill is a strong option again in Week 12. He showed surprisingly well as a passer last week, completing 18-of-23 for 233 yards. Those numbers could have been even better but he had a 57-yard touchdown pass called back due to holding. We only need competence out of Hill as a passer because his real upside comes via his legs. He rushed for 51 yards and 2 touchdowns last week (17.1 FanDuel points just from rushing). Hill has been tabbed as one of the fastest Saints on the entire roster and clocked a time in the mid-4.4s coming out of BYU a few years ago. His speed and 232-pound frame make him a major weapon down around the goal line, which means another game with multiple rushing touchdowns in well within the range of realistic outcomes. At a projected rostered percentage of just 5% and a very low price tag, Hill is an excellent play this weekend.

CSC’s Fantasy Start/Sit, #Saints vs. Broncos: Why Taysom Hill is worth starting - via @HaydenReeI https://t.co/5TbuhbR0nZ pic.twitter.com/EYVnhNZno2

— Canal St. Chronicles (@SaintsCSC) November 27, 2020

Patrick Mahomes II, Kansas City ($9,000 — 9%)

Mahomes has been absolutely on fire the last three games. He has thrown for 416, 372, and 348 yards in his last three outings. This Chiefs passing offense is hitting on all cylinders and looks primed to make a run at the top seed in the AFC down the stretch. We have a potential shootout game against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, which has the highest total on the slate (56). The Buccaneers soldi pass defense has shown some holes in recent weeks. Jared Goff picked them apart to the tune of 376 yards and 3 touchdowns on Monday night. Two weeks ago, the Saints passed for 282 yards and 4 touchdowns.

After three epic games, Round 4 of Patrick Mahomes II vs. Tom Brady could be the last https://t.co/2Fu5ll9qyP pic.twitter.com/9hLEmlp81R

— ESPNBoston (@ESPNBoston) November 27, 2020

You may start to sense a theme in these positional breakdowns…I am buying in to the Chiefs passing game this week. Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce are three of my favorite plays of the week. The ability to stack Mahomes with one or both of his top targets who possess slate-breaking upside is a major bonus to playing Mahomes this week. If he hits, you know with some certainty who is getting the yardage and touchdowns. There are also plenty of “run it back” options in the Buccaneers’ wide receiver corps. Plus, if you are into narratives, there is a “passing the torch” angle here where a big game from Mahomes along with a Chiefs win would add even further credence to the fact that Mahomes is replacing Tom Brady as the face of the NFL.

Other Quarterbacks to Consider

Running Back

Dalvin Cook, Minnesota ($11,000 — 38%)

Cook should be good chalk in any game he enters healthy this season. His workload has been absurd and unmatched by any other running back this season. In the four weeks since returning from injury, Cook has averaged 27.3 carries and 3.3 receptions per game (30.5 touches). He has 112+ total yards in each of those games and scored 1.8 touchdowns per game.

The Panthers will have a tough task Sunday in stopping Dalvin Cook, who has averaged 145 rushing yards per game over the last four weeks: https://t.co/WGiKDVBhvA

— Alaina Getzenberg (@agetzenberg) November 27, 2020

The matchup looks ideal. Carolina has given up the 5th-most FanDuel points to opposing running backs this season. The Vikings have rounded into form riding Cook’s dominant performances and are 3.5-point home favorites in a game with a strong 51.5-point total. The only real issue with Cook is finding a way to fit in his $11,000 salary. If you play Cook, you need to cut some corners elsewhere. His salary is a bit easier to stomach knowing that the slate is lacking when it comes to elite options at the running back position.

Frank Gore, NY Jets ($5,200 — 9%)

It does not feel great recommending a 37-year old running back on one of the league’s worst offenses. However, it is a tough running back week and we need to find some salary savings somewhere if we are going to play expensive options like Dalvin Cook and Keenan Allen. Gore fits the bill as a cap saver with a relatively high floor. With the injury to Lamical Perine, Gore should dominate touches and snaps out of the Jets backfield. Last week, Gore had 17 touches and produced a respectable 14.1 fantasy points.

Gore’s matchup is solid. Miami gave up 166 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns last week to the Melvin Gordon/Phillip Lindsay duo. The week before that, format Jet Kalen Ballage racked up 102 total yards. Our consensus projections have Gore racking up 70 total yards with a decent shot of finding the end one. At this price point, that does not sound too bad. Plus, we just saw another ageless wonder, Adrian Peterson, cash in a couple short touchdowns to win Thanksgiving GPPs. That type of performance from Gore in a similar spot is entirely realistic.

Other Running Backs to Consider

Wide Receiver

Keenan Allen, LA Chargers ($8,200 — 20%)

Allen has been and will continue to be a mainstay on our list of “old chalk.” He has eight more targets (112) than any other player in the NFL and with the emergence of Justin Herbert, those targets have been very high quality. In nine games with Herbert, Allen has averaged 8.6 catches for 89 yards and 0.7 touchdowns per game. The Bills have an above-average pass defense but Allen is essentially matchup proof. Plus, we have seen DeAndre Hopkins (7-127-1) and DK Metcalf (7-108-1) have plenty of success against the Buffalo secondary in the last few weeks.

Still thinking about this throw and the sound it made when it slapped into Keenan Allen’s gloves 🧤 pic.twitter.com/Hato3ZWCAF

— Laurie Horesh (@LaurieHoresh) November 26, 2020

Tyreek Hill, Kansas City ($8,600 — 6%)

On a per target basis, there are few more dominant receivers in the league than Hill. Through the first eight weeks of the 2020 season, Hill averaged just 6.75 targets per game. Even on that relatively modest target share, Hill was still the WR3 in FanDuel points because he scored eight times in eight games. The big question is how many targets we can project him for in Week 12. Hill’s workload has changed drastically in recent weeks with the targets in the Chiefs offense becoming a bit more concentrated. Hill has seen a whopping 32 targets over the last two weeks, leading to monster fantasy performances (9-113-2 and 11-102-1). While Sammy Watkins is expected to return after a long absence and take a few targets, this is still a spot where Hill should have a big game.

Tyreek Hill is on pace to own yet another #Chiefs single-season receiving record. https://t.co/IrDpNuAm8L

— Arrowhead Addict (@ArrowheadAddict) November 25, 2020

The Buccaneers have the stingiest run defense in the league (allowing 53 yards rushing per game to opposing running backs), so this should be a pass-heavy game plan from the Chiefs. Tampa Bay gave up a combined 23 catches for 275 yards to Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp Monday night and we could see Hill and Travis Kelce go off in a similar fashion on Sunday. The ability to roster Hill in this excellent spot while

Michael Pittman, Indianapolis ($5,700 — 9%)

If you are looking for an inexpensive, relatively under the radar play, Pittman might be your guy. The rookie missed over a month due to a calf injury that required surgery but has quickly established himself as the top target for the Colts since his return. Over the last three weeks, Pittman has 14 catches for 223 yards and a touchdown. His biggest game came two weeks ago when he racked up 122 total yards against the same Titans defense he will face in Week 12.

Michael Pittman Jr is ready to take over the passing game.https://t.co/MNayGx4iE7

— Horseshoe Heroes (@HorseshoeHeroes) November 25, 2020

Other Wide Receivers to Consider

Tight End

Travis Kelce, Kansas City ($8,000 — 21%)

With relatively loose pricing, the optimal strategy on FanDuel this week is to pay up for an elite tight end. Kelce is the definition of elite at the position and has been absolutely on fire in recent weeks. Over his last three games, Kelce has 26 catches for 395 yards and 2 touchdowns. His ceiling is unmatched and Kelce also has the highest floor at the position.

The Buccaneers have given up a lot of points to opposing tight ends of late. Over the last five games, Tampa Bay ranks dead last against tight ends in allowing 37% more fantasy points than league average against their opponents. With the best individual matchup in a potential shootout, we should be firing up Kelce in our GPP lineups.

Darren Waller Las Vegas ($7,100 — 20%)

If you can not find the extra $900 to get up to Kelce, you can do a lot worse than rostering Darren Waller. Waller has been rock solid this season. Waller has five fewer receptions than Kecle on the seasons but enters Week 12 with 19 more catches than anyone else at the position. He has averaged 8.4 targets per game. The one knock on Waller after his huge breakout 2019 season was a lack of touchdowns. He has put those concerns to rest this season and is currently on pace for 8.0 touchdowns while becoming a force in the red zone.

Raiders TE Darren Waller leads NFL in red zone catches through Week 11 https://t.co/fQw19KlBuW

— Raiders Wire (@TheRaidersWire) November 25, 2020

Quarterback Derek Carr has quietly been putting together an outstanding season, completing 69.7% of his passes with a 19-3 TD-INT ratio. Atlanta has given up more fantasy points to opposing tight ends than any team in the league. The Falcons have allowed the third-most receptions (57), the second-most yards (622), and the most touchdowns (8).

Other Tight Ends to Consider

Defense