Monkey Knife Fight Player Props, Week 3

Dan Hindery's Monkey Knife Fight Player Props, Week 3 Dan Hindery Published 09/23/2021

Introduction

Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) is playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.

In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week.

Week 2 Review

Last Week: -3

Season Total: (-2) Each week, we will start with a quick review of how things went the previous week. We split all three of our two-part player props, hitting on one half but not the other. Aaron Jones made our touchdown prop an easy winner, though.

  • 5, Rooting for Touchdowns: (-1) We got the shootout we were hoping for between Washington and the Giants but the touchdown luck didn’t go our way in terms of which players got into the end zone.
  • 4, Star Quarterbacks: (-1) We split this one. Justin Herbert (338 yards) easily had more yards than we needed but it was a down day for Dak Prescott as the Cowboys got the run game going.
  • 3, Hurts for Real?: (-1) The half of this prop we loved, Jalen Hurts outscoring Jimmy Garoppolo easily came through but we picked wrong on the other half, with Deebo Samuel outproducing George Kittle.
  • 2, Betting on Burrow and Fields: (-1) Our third split of the week. Andy Dalton had way less than his 17.5 fantasy points. However, Joe Burrow did not have as much success as we expected against the Bears defense.
  • 1, Touchdown Value: (+1) We needed more than 1.5 combined touchdowns from Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, and DAndre Swift. Jones handled this one on his own, scoring four times.

5: Ground Game

Christian McCaffrey MORE than 85.5 rushing yards

Mark Ingram MORE than 36.5 rushing yards

    • In his career, Christian McCaffrey has averaged 4.6 yards per carry. At that level of per-carry productivity, he would need 19 carries tonight to notch more than 85.5 rushing yards.
    • Through two games, Christian McCaffrey has 45 carries and topped 21 carries in both games. With Carolina a heavy favorite on Thursday night, he should again see 20+ carries.
    • Mark Ingram has 40 carries through two games. With a rookie quarterback making his first start, expect Houston to try to lean on the running game.
    • If the carries are there again, we do not need too much efficiency from Ingram because this 36.5-yard number is so low. Houston has not been afraid to run him even if the defense seemingly knows what is coming, as Ingram has run into more stacked boxes than any back this season.

4: Star Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs MORE than 85.5 receiving yards
Keenan Allen MORE than 84.5 receiving yards

    • Stefon Diggs is off to a relatively disappointing start (13-129-1), though that is mostly due to how high he set the bar last season. It does not appear much has changed for Diggs in terms of usage. He is fifth in air yards (264) and also ranks Top 5 in targets and red zone targets. He has also run a route on 94% of Josh Allen’s
    • Diggs is also generating slightly more separation on his targets than he was last season. Allen has just been slightly off on some throws and Diggs has faced some tough matchups to date.
    • Against Washington, he will have by far his best individual CB matchup of the season. The stout Washington defensive front has been forcing teams to try to move the ball through the air and has given up 249 passing yards to Daniel Jones and 337 yards to Justin Herbert.
    • If you are into narratives, Diggs is from the DMV and has always shown out against his hometown team.
    • Despite the Chargers playing a pair of low-scoring games to start the season, Keenan Allen has had 100+ yards in both outings.
  • Since 2018, Allen has had 10+ targets every time he has faced the Chiefs. Last season, Allen had 10+ targets in 10-of-14 games. This is a game with a 54.5-point total and the Chargers are going to have to throw early and often if they hope to outscore the Chiefs.

3: Star Wide Receivers, Part II

Tyreek Hill MORE than 89.5 receiving yards
Calvin Ridley MORE than 86.5 receiving yards

    • One of the angles this week (as you will see in the next few props) is a belief in Patrick Mahomes II and the Chiefs passing game bouncing back from a tough loss to win a shootout against the Chargers.
    • It is worth taking a step back and looking at the bigger picture to get an idea of just how great Mahomes and Justin Herbert are. Both have started their careers with unprecedented levels of passing success.
    • To outscore the Chargers, the Chiefs will have to rely on the big two pass catchers, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. The duo has accounted for just under 60% of the Chiefs receiving yardage this season.
    • Calvin Ridley is averaging only 57 receiving yards per game to start the season and is clearly frustrated by the lack of production.
    • He has been open for some big gains but Matt Ryan has not been able to hit him. Perhaps Ryan flails all season and brings Ridley down with him.
  • Ryan has to be focused on proving the doubters wrong and regaining the trust of his top playmaker. As you can see at the end of the video above, Ridley is frustrated. Veteran quarterbacks know they need to manage egos. This is a bit of a narrative leap here, but I suspect Ryan peppers Ridley with targets this weekend to try to get things back moving in the right direction.
  • If the Falcons passing game has any chance to get right, it is this week. The Giants just gave up 336 passing yards to Taylor Heinicke and a monster game to the opposing WR1 (11-107-1 for Terry McLaurin).

2: Rushing Upside

Kyler Murray MORE than 26.5 fantasy points
Lamar Jackson MORE than 25.5 fantasy points

    • One of the themes from recent years is the massive fantasy advantage dual-threat quarterbacks provide and we have seen an unprecedented influx of athletic quarterbacks who can both throw and run. Near the top of that list are Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson, who both have stellar matchups this weekend.
    • We have been on the Lamar Jackson rushing overs early this season and he has not disappointed. He has already racked up 193 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. Those 193 rushing yards are good for third-most in the entire NFL behind only Derrick Henry and Joe Mixon.
    • Jackson is currently averaging 15.7 fantasy points per game just as a runner. Against a bad Detroit defense, we likely are not going to need too much from Jackson as a passer for him to score more than 25.5 fantasy points.
    • This is a game where Jackson should be able to flex his muscles as a passer. The Lions rank dead last in net yards per pass drop back (9.4) and have been decimated by injuries to an already shaky secondary. Look for Jackson to account for at least three touchdowns in this game, which given his rushing yardage floor would give him a fantastic chance of topping 25.5 fantasy points.
  • Aside from a short stretch when he was slowed by an injury, Kyler Murray has been unstoppable the past two seasons.
  • In the games before his shoulder injury last season and the two games so far in 2021, Murray has averaged 31.0 fantasy points per game.
  • If you ignore the games last season after the shoulder injury in Week 11, he has put together five straight games of at least 30 fantasy points. That includes 34.6 and 35.1-point games to start this season.
  • He is facing a Jacksonville team that ranks 27th in the NFL in net passing yards per drop back. Making that number even more alarming is that they have faced Teddy Bridgewater and Tyrod Taylor, not exactly a murderers row and nowhere near the level of talent that Murray brings to the table.

1: Chiefs Stack

Patrick Mahomes II (-10.5) over Justin Herbert
Travis Kelce (-3.5) over DeAndre Hopkins

  • We are getting a nice correlation play here. We will likely need 300+ passing yards from Patrick Mahomes II to come out ahead on the first of the two props. If we do get that big yardage total, then Travis Kelce is almost guaranteed to have a big week.
  • If you are going to stack a team, getting the one with the 30.8 team total (highest of the week) and a condensed market share is the way to go. 58.2% of the Chiefs receiving yards have come from either Kelce or Tyreek Hill, so we know where Mahomes is going to go with the ball.
  • What else is there to say about Travis Kelce and the historically great run he has been on? After his 109-receiving yard performance last week against a tough Ravens defense, he has now topped 100 receiving yards in 9 of his last 13 games (playoffs included).
  • Over his last 13 games, Kelce is averaging 112.3 receiving yards per game. In a potential shootout against the Chargers, Kelce is a safe bet to produce another big yardage total.
  • The yardage numbers are way down for DeAndre Hopkins this season. He is averaging 68.5 receiving yards per game this season, and a deeper look at the numbers shows that is not a fluke or due to lack of efficiency. To date, Hopkins has just an 18% share of targets and a 23% share of air yards. This Arizona offense is much more balanced with the additions of Rondale Moore and A.J. Green. Do not expect Hopkins to put up big yardage this week against the Jaguars.
  • Justin Herbert is very good and should have a strong week, but matching up with Mahomes is always an uphill battle. In two games this season, Mahomes has thrown for 337 and 343 yards.
Photos provided by Imagn Images
Tags:
Daily FF Davante Adams Josh Allen Keenan Allen Teddy Bridgewater Joe Burrow Andy Dalton Stefon Diggs Jimmy Garoppolo A.J. Green Taylor Heinicke Derrick Henry Justin Herbert Tyreek Hill DeAndre Hopkins Jalen Hurts Mark Ingram II Lamar Jackson Aaron Jones Daniel Jones Travis Kelce George Kittle Patrick Mahomes II Christian McCaffrey Terry McLaurin Joe Mixon Rondale Moore Kyler Murray Dak Prescott Calvin Ridley Matt Ryan Deebo Samuel D'Andre Swift Tyrod Taylor
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