Preseason Projection Adjustment: August 26th Edition

Photo: Samantha Madar, USA Today Sports

We dropped our first set of projections a day after the NFL draft concluded and have updated them countless times since. But as we enter the heart of the preseason, rankings and projections start to move more decisively with greater velocity, so this year I'll be providing a weekly look into how my projections are changing. A few things to keep in mind:

• This is a recap of a week's worth of changes, but we update projections in real-time, and you can always find live, up-to-date numbers here
• After 20+ years of providing rankings and projections, I've found that incremental movements are generally better than wholesale, reactionary moves
• We've had another week with, thankfully, very few substantive injuries
• Many of the tweaks below pertain to players who aren't likely to be drafted in 10- or 12-team redraft leagues, but I felt it was important to show you the depth we provide in our analysis

Quarterback Ascenders

Last week, we bumped up Trey Lance to 14 games started, and this week we give Mac Jones the same treatment. Although the Patriots haven't officially decided, it's hard to look at the last few months beat writer coverage and come away thinking Cam Newton deserves to start over the rookie beyond a few early-season games. Jameis Winston also hasn't officially been named the starter, but multiple reports indicate it's leaning that way. Finally, a week after bumping Drew Lock up significantly because it seemed he was on the cusp of winning the job, the Broncos officially name Bridgewater the starter.

Quarterback Decliners

All three of these quarterbacks seem to be on the wrong end of the camp battles. Lock was officially cast aside for Bridgewater, while neither the Patriots nor the Saints have formally declared a winner. Reading the tea leaves a bit, but with most drafts happening soon (if they already haven't), it's time to take a stand.

Running Back Ascenders

The week's biggest news is Travis Etienne’s unfortunate season-ending Lisfranc injury, which completely reshapes the Jaguars' offensive plans. James Robinson vaults back into relevance as a high-end fantasy RB2 with Top 12 upside. Carlos Hyde should also have a regular role. The second biggest news was Sony Michel’s trade to the Rams. Michel has a spotty injury track record, as does Darrell Henderson. But Michel's skill set fits well into Sean McVay's system, and he could pile up the rushing touchdowns. Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, and James White all get bumps with Michel’s departure. Alvin Kamara may be the most important adjustment for those yet to draft. While the percentage increase is minor, it does vault Kamara back into the No. 2 overall spot in my rankings. As long as Taysom Hill isn’t the starter, Kamara is incredibly safe, particularly in PPR formats.

Running Back Decliners

Melvin Gordon has a groin injury of indeterminate severity, which warrants caution. Teddy Bridgewater being named the starter also puts a ceiling on the offense. Darrell Henderson gets a reduction for two reasons: 1) Sony Michel is a Ram, and 2) Henderson hurt his thumb despite the coaches treating him with kid gloves all summer. I dropped J.D. McKissic down a bit because I worry his role as the main third-down outlet is at risk. Beat writers in New Orleans are sounding alarm bells about Latavius Murray’s hold on the No. 2 role. And, of course, the most significant news of the week was Travis Etienne’s season-ending surgery.

Tight End Ascenders

Chris Herndon has been in the dog house for a long time but was projected as the top Jets tight end by default. However, Tyler Kroft is healthy and worked his way into a role, quite possibly as the starter. Juwan Johnson probably won’t displace Adam Trautman as the Saints starter, but he’s looked great all summer and should be closer to parity with Trautman than previously modeled.

Tight End Descenders

I was too high on Hunter Henry, given his current injury and long injury history. He’s always had the talent to be an every-week fantasy starter but rarely had the durability. Adam Trautman was among my favorite late-round tight end targets early in the preseason, but there haven’t been any drum beats supporting a prominent role. All the positive news in Saints camp is coming from Juwan Johnson.

Wide Receiver Ascenders

Travis Etienne’s injury opens the door for James Robinson and warrants more enthusiasm for Laviska Shenault, who is naturally suited to play a similar role as Etienne in shallow crossing routes and on making plays in open space. I was already high on Jerry Jeudy, but he warranted another slight bump after Teddy Bridgewater was named the starting quarterback. Marquez Callaway has been making waves all summer and should be a starter in Week 1; whether he remains a starter after Michael Thomas returns will come down to how well he performs in his absence. Randall Cobb is the biggest mover of the week and the most out of consensus. Aaron Rodgers gushed about Cobb’s professionalism, route-running, and precision this week, and I believe Cobb could have 100+ targets if healthy. Bryan Edwards and Quez Watkins have similarly outplayed their higher-pedigreed teammates in Henry Ruggs and Jalen Reagor.

Wide Receiver Descenders

Our own Cecil Lammey said Courtland Sutton hasn’t looked right in camp; he still doesn’t seem healthy and lacks the explosiveness that made him a budding star two seasons ago. With Teddy Bridgewater winning the starting role, fewer downfield vertical shots will be taken. Marvin Jones gets a modest reduction because he’s nicked up and has a lengthy injury history. I was far too aggressive on Emmanuel Sanders based on my expectations for his role. Tre’Quan Smith is back practicing, but the missed time warranted knocking a game off his projections. With Aaron Rodgers gushing about Randall Cobb, I’m beginning to think both Valdes-Scantling and Lazard will be relegated to complementary roles.

Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail at wood@footballguys.com.

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