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We dropped our first set of projections a day after the NFL draft concluded and have updated them countless times since. But as we enter the heart of the preseason, rankings and projections start to move more decisively with greater velocity, so this year I'll be providing a weekly look into how my projections are changing. A few things to keep in mind:
- This is a recap of a week's worth of changes, but we update projections in real-time, and you can always find live, up-to-date numbers here
- After 20+ years of providing rankings and projections, I've found that incremental movements are generally better than wholesale, reactionary moves
- We've had another week with, thankfully, very few substantive injuries
- Many of the tweaks below pertain to players who aren't likely to be drafted in 10- or 12-team redraft leagues, but I felt it was important to show you the depth we provide in our analysis
|Jameis Winston||NO||334||505||66.1%||7.3||3,700||26||15||36||50||205||4.1||2||5||301.5||Calling him the starter|
|Mac Jones||NE||291||450||64.7%||7.4||3,350||18||13||25||35||125||3.6||1||2||243.0||From 8 gms played to 13.5 gms|
|Teddy Bridgewater||DEN||262||395||66.3%||7.3||2,900||14||9||28||44||155||3.5||2||4||215.5||From 8 gms played to 12.5 gms|
Last week, we bumped up Trey Lance to 14 games started, and this week we give Mac Jones the same treatment. Although the Patriots haven't officially decided, it's hard to look at the last few months beat writer coverage and come away thinking Cam Newton deserves to start over the rookie beyond a few early-season games. Jameis Winston also hasn't officially been named the starter, but multiple reports indicate it's leaning that way. Finally, a week after bumping Drew Lock up significantly because it seemed he was on the cusp of winning the job, the Broncos officially name Bridgewater the starter.
|Taysom Hill||NO||45||67||67.2%||8.0||535||3||1||20||30||165||5.5||4||2||105.3||Back to gadget player|
|Cam Newton||NE||80||130||61.5%||7.1||925||6||5||12||35||160||4.6||3||3||96.3||From 9 gms played to 3.5 gms|
|Drew Lock||DEN||105||180||58.3%||6.7||1,200||8||6||8||15||55||3.7||1||4||93.5||From 9 gms played to 4.5 gms|
All three of these quarterbacks seem to be on the wrong end of the camp battles. Lock was officially cast aside for Bridgewater, while neither the Patriots nor the Saints have formally declared a winner. Reading the tea leaves a bit, but with most drafts happening soon (if they already haven't), it's time to take a stand.
Running Back Ascenders
|Alvin Kamara||NO||205||990||4.8||12||1||110||88||80.0%||755||8.6||4||357.5||Back up to No. 2 overall|
|James Robinson||JAX||230||1,020||4.4||7||2||75||56||74.7%||410||7.3||2||251.0||Etienne injury|
|Damien Harris||NE||215||995||4.6||6||1||20||13||65.0%||115||8.8||-||159.0||Up 15% on S. Michel trade|
|James White||NE||50||195||3.9||2||1||75||55||73.3%||440||8.0||2||141.5||10% higher rec stats|
|Sony Michel||LA||125||515||4.1||6||-||11||7||63.6%||50||7.1||-||99.5||L.A. Rams trade|
|Carlos Hyde||JAX||100||410||4.1||4||1||27||18||66.7%||115||6.4||-||93.5||Moves into No. 2 role|
|Rhamondre Stevenson||NE||90||390||4.3||3||-||12||8||66.7%||50||6.3||-||70.0||3x bump on S. Michel trade|
|Tevin Coleman||NYJ||100||420||4.2||2||-||14||9||64.3%||65||7.2||-||69.5||Up 2x, no worse than RB3|
|Jaret Patterson||WAS||50||190||3.8||1||-||8||5||62.5%||30||6.0||-||33.0||2x bump, earning role|
|Anthony McFarland Jr||PIT||40||140||3.5||1||-||5||4||80.0%||20||5.0||-||26.0||Up 2x, possible handcuff|
|Dare Ogunbowale||JAX||40||160||4.0||-||-||9||6||66.7%||30||5.0||-||25.0||More likely to have role|
|Tony Jones||NO||30||125||4.2||1||-||7||4||57.1%||25||6.3||-||25.0||Winning No. 3 role|
|J.J. Taylor||NE||30||125||4.2||1||1||5||3||60.0%||20||6.7||-||22.5||Added projections|
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