Cracking FanDuel Week 14

Photo: Christopher Hanewinckel, USA Today Sports

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE:

Update: 1:18PM EST Adam Schefter reported that Tony Jones Jr. will start over Travis Homer on ESPN's FFNOW. You should swap Tony Jones into your lineup instead of Travis Homer. This also allows for an upgrade of Carolina to Tampa Bay's defense.

• QB Jared Goff, DET, $7,100
• RB Tony Pollard, DAL, $7,500
• RB Derrick Henry, TEN $9,000
• WR, Chris Moore, HOU, $5,300
• WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ, $7,200
• WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN, $6,500
• TE Travis Kelce, KC, $8,000
• Flex RB Tony Jones, SEA, $5,500
• TD Tampa Bay, $3,900

Saquon Barkley is active this week. So no changes to the primary cash game lineup. Best of luck everyone!

• RB Tony Pollard, DAL, $7,500
• RB Derrick Henry, TEN $9,000
• WR, Chris Moore, HOU, $5,300
• WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ, $7,200
• WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN, $6,500
• TE Travis Kelce, KC, $8,000
• Flex RB Travis Homer, SEA, $5,800
• TD Carolina Panthers, $3,600

Article Update:

Hey everyone, I’m currently dealing with the flu, so this was a struggle to even get this article out. I’ll continue to refine this up until the Sunday Morning Update, but it will likely be a lighter version of the article this week.

8AM update, I"m far less than 100%, and the Cracking FanDuel article will have to stand as is. I completed as much as I possibly could given the circumstances, and completed all the critical components. I'll find a way to make it up to you for being sick this week, but if you have any ideas on how I can make it up please let me know knotts@footballguys.com

SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.

• • Dallas (vs HOU) – 30.5 points
  • Detroit (vs MIN) – 26.75 points
  • Buffalo (vs NYJ) – 26.5 points
  • Kansas City (at DEN) – 26.25 points
  • Cincinnati (vs CLE) – 26 points
  • Philadelphia (at NY Giants) – 26 points

Week 13 Recap

Week 13 was a profitable week as the lineup finished in the top 20-25% of lineups with 138.82 points scored.

Total points scored- 138.82

• QB Patrick Mahomes II II, KC, $9,000- 19.82
• RB Samaje Perine, CIN, $7,100- 18.5
• RB Aaron Jones, GB, $7,400- 7.5
• WR, Nico Collins, HOU, $5,800- 11
• WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ, $6,600- 20.2
• WR Davante Adams, LV, $8,600- 33.7
• TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT, $5,900- 9.1
• Flex RB Dameon Pierce, HOU, $6,500- 11
• TD Las Vegas Raiders, $3,100- 8

What went right:

• Davante Adams was the key to winning in Week 13. Adams had 177 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Chargers and was rostered in about 40% of lineups.
• Samaje Perine had 18.5 points last week which for a $7,100 running back is solid especially since he failed to find the end-zone.

What went wrong:

• Aaron Jones was disappointing, as the Packers ran all over the Bears last week, it was just AJ Dillon did most of that work as Jones went out with an injury. He did return, but the Packers continued to play the hot hand for most of the game.
• Patrick Mahomes II was disappointing. While 19.82 points is not a killer, for a $9,000 quarterback, you really want 2.5x salary minimum, so he just fell short of a 22.5 point day.

Injuries Create Opportunity:

There’s very little certainty this week in terms of injuries, as a lot of questionable tags, but not many players have been ruled out:

• Ken Walker III III is questionable this week with an ankle injury while Deejay Dallas also has not practiced this week. This will leave Travis Homer as the lone back in Seattle. Homer is cheap, but how much we can trust him will be the overall story.
• The Texans are a mess at the moment as both Nico Collins and Brandin Cooks will miss this week. The Texans are also going back to Davis Mills after failing to get a spark from Kyle Allen the past two weeks. Both Phillip Dorsett and Chris Moore will get the start and with the Texans expected to be behind as they’re 17 point underdogs, this is a week where taking a chance on one of these two as a cheap punt play could end up paying off. Of the two, Chris Moore is favored by Footballguys.
• Leonard Fournette is questionable with a foot injury this week. Rachaad White is in a tough matchup, but does have 15 receptions over the last two weeks and against this San Francisco defense could see a significant amount of targets through the air as while the 49ers boast the leagues best run defense have been susceptible through the air.

Cash Game Strategy- Week 14- Big Favorites, Low Scoring, Small 10 Game Slate

This is an interesting week, as we have 6 teams that are projected to score 26 or more points, yet we have 8 teams that are projected to score less than 20 points. Also, we have four games in which are a touchdown or greater favorite as Dallas -17, Buffalo -10, Kansas City -9, and Philadelphia -7 are all big favorites this week. This makes it interesting in how we play this slate, as typically playing a quarterback in a 10 or more point spread can be risky as the game can get out of hand and the team stops throwing the ball, so any rushing or defensive touchdown can really hurt you more than a typical close game.

This week, picking your quarterback is going to be the crucial component to this week. It’s a somewhat difficult decision, as there are really 6 quarterbacks that can be considered this week between Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes II, Josh Allen, or targeting the Minnesota Detroit game as Jared Goff is very cheap this week, and then Joe Burrow is a solid play this week as well.

There is also zero value on this slate at the wide receiver or running back position. The only value on this slate are Travis Homer at $5,800 and Chris Moore at $5,300 and both of those players bring in significant question marks as they are veterans who have never really shined when given an opportunity. However, in order to build a competitive lineup, many players will use one if not both of those guys in order to build their lineup this week. It is definitely a stars/scrubs type week as a balanced approach is difficult since there is not that mid-tier of options that are worth taking.

Player Chart

Lineups

SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 113.7)

• QB Jared Goff, DET, $7,100
• RB Tony Pollard, DAL, $7,500
• RB Derrick Henry, TEN $9,000
• WR, Chris Moore, HOU, $5,300
• WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ, $7,200
• WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN, $6,500
• TE Travis Kelce, KC, $8,000
• Flex RB Travis Homer, SEA, $5,800
• TD Carolina Panthers, $3,600

SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Cash Plus Lineup FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 113.4)

A cash plus lineup is one that is designed to be used in something like a 100 player or less contest where 20-30% of the prize pool cashes. These can also be used for 3-person or 5-person contests where the top person wins. Often these will have a heavier emphasis on stacking built into them, but not factoring in roster percentages compared to a true GPP lineup which may avoid some of the higher projected rostered players.

• QB Jared Goff, DET, $7,100
• RB Tony Pollard, DAL, $7,500
• RB Derrick Henry, TEN $9,000
• WR, Chris Moore, HOU, $5,300
• WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ, $7,200
• WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET, $8,600
• TE Greg Dulcich, DET, $5,400
• Flex RB Travis Homer, SEA, $5,800
• TD Baltimore Ravens, $4,100

SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – GPP Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 117.3)

• QB Jalen Hurts, PHI, $8,700
• RB Tony Pollard, DAL, $7,500
• RB Travis Homer, SEA, $5,800
• WR, Chris Moore, HOU, $5,300
• WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ, $7,200
• WR AJ Brown, PHI, $8,400
• TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT, $6,
• Flex RB Dandre Swift, DET $7,200
• TD Baltimore Ravens, $4,100

Player Pool