Cracking FanDuel Week 14

Devin Knotts's Cracking FanDuel Week 14 Devin Knotts Published 12/10/2022

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE:

Update: 1:18PM EST Adam Schefter reported that Tony Jones Jr. will start over Travis Homer on ESPN's FFNOW. You should swap Tony Jones into your lineup instead of Travis Homer. This also allows for an upgrade of Carolina to Tampa Bay's defense.

Saquon Barkley is active this week. So no changes to the primary cash game lineup. Best of luck everyone!

Article Update:

Hey everyone, I’m currently dealing with the flu, so this was a struggle to even get this article out. I’ll continue to refine this up until the Sunday Morning Update, but it will likely be a lighter version of the article this week.

8AM update, I"m far less than 100%, and the Cracking FanDuel article will have to stand as is. I completed as much as I possibly could given the circumstances, and completed all the critical components. I'll find a way to make it up to you for being sick this week, but if you have any ideas on how I can make it up please let me know knotts@footballguys.com

SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.

    • Dallas (vs HOU) – 30.5 points
    • Detroit (vs MIN) – 26.75 points
    • Buffalo (vs NYJ) – 26.5 points
    • Kansas City (at DEN) – 26.25 points
    • Cincinnati (vs CLE) – 26 points
    • Philadelphia (at NY Giants) – 26 points

Week 13 Recap

Week 13 was a profitable week as the lineup finished in the top 20-25% of lineups with 138.82 points scored.

Total points scored- 138.82

What went right:

  • Davante Adams was the key to winning in Week 13. Adams had 177 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Chargers and was rostered in about 40% of lineups.
  • Samaje Perine had 18.5 points last week which for a $7,100 running back is solid especially since he failed to find the end-zone.

What went wrong:

  • Aaron Jones was disappointing, as the Packers ran all over the Bears last week, it was just AJ Dillon did most of that work as Jones went out with an injury. He did return, but the Packers continued to play the hot hand for most of the game.
  • Patrick Mahomes II was disappointing. While 19.82 points is not a killer, for a $9,000 quarterback, you really want 2.5x salary minimum, so he just fell short of a 22.5 point day.

Injuries Create Opportunity:

There’s very little certainty this week in terms of injuries, as a lot of questionable tags, but not many players have been ruled out:

  • Ken Walker III is questionable this week with an ankle injury while Deejay Dallas also has not practiced this week. This will leave Travis Homer as the lone back in Seattle. Homer is cheap, but how much we can trust him will be the overall story.
  • The Texans are a mess at the moment as both Nico Collins and Brandin Cooks will miss this week. The Texans are also going back to Davis Mills after failing to get a spark from Kyle Allen the past two weeks. Both Phillip Dorsett and Chris Moore will get the start and with the Texans expected to be behind as they’re 17 point underdogs, this is a week where taking a chance on one of these two as a cheap punt play could end up paying off. Of the two, Chris Moore is favored by Footballguys.
  • Leonard Fournette is questionable with a foot injury this week. Rachaad White is in a tough matchup, but does have 15 receptions over the last two weeks and against this San Francisco defense could see a significant amount of targets through the air as while the 49ers boast the leagues best run defense have been susceptible through the air.

Cash Game Strategy- Week 14- Big Favorites, Low Scoring, Small 10 Game Slate

This is an interesting week, as we have 6 teams that are projected to score 26 or more points, yet we have 8 teams that are projected to score less than 20 points. Also, we have four games in which are a touchdown or greater favorite as Dallas -17, Buffalo -10, Kansas City -9, and Philadelphia -7 are all big favorites this week. This makes it interesting in how we play this slate, as typically playing a quarterback in a 10 or more point spread can be risky as the game can get out of hand and the team stops throwing the ball, so any rushing or defensive touchdown can really hurt you more than a typical close game.

This week, picking your quarterback is going to be the crucial component to this week. It’s a somewhat difficult decision, as there are really 6 quarterbacks that can be considered this week between Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes II, Josh Allen, or targeting the Minnesota Detroit game as Jared Goff is very cheap this week, and then Joe Burrow is a solid play this week as well.

There is also zero value on this slate at the wide receiver or running back position. The only value on this slate are Travis Homer at $5,800 and Chris Moore at $5,300 and both of those players bring in significant question marks as they are veterans who have never really shined when given an opportunity. However, in order to build a competitive lineup, many players will use one if not both of those guys in order to build their lineup this week. It is definitely a stars/scrubs type week as a balanced approach is difficult since there is not that mid-tier of options that are worth taking.

Player Chart

Quarterback
Rank Player FBG Projection Salary Comment
1 Joe Burrow 22.1 $8,300 Joe Burrow has never beat Cleveland, but that's mostly not his fault as he's averaged 309 yards passing when playing the Browns. Expect another big performance this week from Burrow who should get his first win against the Browns at home this week.
2 Jared Goff 17.3 $7,100 On a week where there is seemingly no value, taking Jared Goff who has the highest projected team total is an option to save some salary this week. Goff is coming off of a 340 yard 2 touchdown performance, and while there is risk there considering whether he will be able to do this in consecutive weeks, he's $600 too cheap on a week where building a lineup is very difficult.
3 Jalen Hurts 24.8 $8,700 The Giants defense is starting to show cracks after being a very good unit to start the season. Over the last three weeks, the Giants are allowing an average of 26.3 points which if they allow 26 points to the Eagles, Hurts is going to be a big reason for this, this week.
4 Kirk Cousins 17.8 $7,500 Kirk Cousins is a solid pivot off of Goff if you're worried about Goff putting together two great games in a row. Cousins is facing the Lions who are allowing the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season in a game that is the highest projected scoring game of the week.
5 Josh Allen 24.1 $8,700 Josh Allen is always in consideration, but what is weird here is I don't love him when he is a big favorite like he is this week. While the team is projected to score points, where Allen separates himself is with his legs which he doesn't typically run the ball as much when the Bills are in control.
Running Back
Rank Player FBG Projection Salary Comment
1 Tony Pollard 15 $7,500 Tony Pollard is too cheap considering the Cowboys are projected to score 31 points this week and the game is considered to be a potential blowout with the Cowboys as 17 point favorites. The only issue has been that Ezekiel Elliott has done most of the touchdown finishing for the Texans, but this is a game in which both should have an opportunity to score.
2 Derrick Henry 16.6 $7,100 Derrick Henry has owned the Jacksonville Jaguars. Over his last two meetings, he's had 250 yards and 2 touchdowns and 130 yards and 3 touchdowns. This is a very weird week in terms of not a lot to love at the running back position, but paying up for Henry may be the right move this week.
3 Joe Mixon 15.1 $7,400 The Browns are allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, and their linebacking group is a complete disaster. Mixon has struggled at times against the Browns and at his price is a little more inconsistent than a Derrick Henry, which is the only reason he comes in at the number 3 spot.
4 Travis Homer 9.4 $6,500 The running back position is a tough one this week, and going with a cheap punt play in a favorable matchup could be a solid way to build a lineup this week.
5 Dalvin Cook 14.9 $9,500 Cooks is just a little bit expensive considering the production and how good Detroit's run defense has been as of late, but getting the best running back in the highest scoring game of the week against a defense he has had success against already this season is certainly intriguing
6
Wide Receiver
Rank Player FBG Projection Salary Comment
1 Garrett Wilson 14.1 $7,200
2 Justin Jefferson 17.2 $9,300
3 DK Metcalf 13.6 $7,900
4 Chris Moore 7.8 $5,300
5 Amon-Ra St. Brown 16.1 $8,600
6 JaMarr Chase 14.9 $8,700
7 DK Metcalf 13.6 $7,900
8 Jerry Jeudy 10.6 $6,500
9 Tyler Boyd 9.2 $5,900
10 JuJu Smith-Schuster 10.2 6600
Tight End
Rank Player FBG Projection Salary Comment
1 Greg Dulcich 7.8 $5,400
2 Travis Kelce 16.2 $8,000
3 Mark Andrews 10.6 $6,800

Lineups

SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 113.7)

SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Cash Plus Lineup FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 113.4)

A cash plus lineup is one that is designed to be used in something like a 100 player or less contest where 20-30% of the prize pool cashes. These can also be used for 3-person or 5-person contests where the top person wins. Often these will have a heavier emphasis on stacking built into them, but not factoring in roster percentages compared to a true GPP lineup which may avoid some of the higher projected rostered players.

SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – GPP Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 117.3)

Player Pool

Primary Cash Game Play
Secondary Cash Game Play
Player Position Salary Projected Points H-Value Point/$
J. Hurts
QB 8700 24.8 59.7 2.8
J. Allen
QB 8700 24.1 57.0 2.8
P. Mahomes
QB 8800 22.2 48.9 2.5
J. Burrow
QB 8300 22.1 51.4 2.7
G. Smith
QB 7700 20.1 46.8 2.6
K. Cousins
QB 7500 17.8 39.1 2.4
D. Prescott
QB 8000 17.8 36.4 2.2
J. Goff
QB 7100 17.3 39.2 2.4
T. Huntley
QB 7000 16.7 37.6 2.4
T. Lawrence
QB 7200 16.3 34.8 2.3
D. Jones
QB 6900 16.1 35.6 2.3
D. Watson
QB 7000 15.8 34.1 2.3
T. Brady
QB 7100 15.8 33.5 2.2
K. Pickett
QB 6600
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