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2021 was another “lonely at the top, crowded in the middle year” at wide receiver. Some new names asserted their dominance, which some familiar names stayed in the top 10. 2022 doesn’t look much different, so the most important task won’t be picking the right receiver in the first round, or deciding when to take your first receiver, but nailing those mid-round picks and hopefully finding more receivers climbing the ladder than the ones going down the chute. How can we make sense of the wide landscape of receivers in 2022 drafts?

WR1 Tiers

THE WR1

• Cooper Kupp, LAR

Kupp was unstoppable last year. Defenses will try to make him stoppable this year, even dare the Rams to beat them with another receiver, but he was so far ahead of WR2 last year that he can fall a considerable amount and still be the most valuable receiver in fantasy. He’s worth the #1 pick.

THE WR1 IN RANGE OF OUTCOMES

• Justin Jefferson, MIN
• Stefon Diggs, BUF
• JaMarr Chase, CIN
• Mike Evans, TB
• CeeDee Lamb, DAL

Target: Evans

If Kupp isn’t the WR1 this year, the player that displaces him will likely come from this list. They are all worth top 15-18 picks.

Jefferson should get a boost from the move to a more balanced, if not pass-heavy offense. Last year, he improved all of his numbers from an elite rookie season, what will he do for an encore?

Diggs is the clear No. 1 receiver with a great quarterback in a great offense. His numbers were down a bit from 2020, but that also gives him plenty of room to grow from 2021 levels, especially if Gabriel Davis or the committee of slot receivers don’t live up to the team’s hopes.

Chase could, like Justin Jefferson, take a big step forward from an elite, historic rookie season, but a lot of his value came on huge downfield plays, and it’s also possible he takes a step back for fantasy as defenses overplay the deep pass to force Joe Burrow to take what they give him.

With Chris Godwin questionable to start the season, Rob Gronkowski retired, and Antonio Brown doing whatever it is he is doing right now, Evans could get a massive target spike as Tom Brady isn’t afraid to continuously go to a receiver who is winning when the ball is in the air. He’s a value at current ADP.

Amari Cooper is gone and Michael Gallup may not be ready to start the season, so Lamb is set up for a big boost in targets, but this is also a conservative offense and not necessarily the pass game multiplier we saw when the Cowboys defense was bad in 2020. Lamb is priced correctly, but can still make your draft.

FORMERLY ELITE WR1?

• Davante Adams, LV
• Tyreek Hill, MIA
• Deebo Samuel, SF

Avoid: Samuel

All three of these receivers were in the 2021 Top 6, and Adams and Hill finished 1-2 in 2020. All are also facing big changes to their situation in 2022. The fantasy market has priced in some of the uncertainty as all are going lower than their 2021 production would dictate, but has their ADP dropped enough to make them worth taking?

Adams is reunited with his college quarterback in Las Vegas, but it’s difficult to consider any quarterback an upgrade from Aaron Rodgers, and there are better supporting cast pass-catchers to share with on the Raiders than there were in Green Bay. The Raiders offense will pass more than Green Bay’s, maybe a lot more, so Adams could make anyone who passed on him in the first look silly.

Hill can try to convince us that there’s something better about playing with Tua Tagovailoa than Patrick Mahomes II, but we shouldn’t buy it, especially in fantasy circles. The Mike McDaniel offense is going to be run-heavy if it’s anything like the one he oversaw in San Francisco, and Jaylen Waddle might be as attractive or more attractive as a target if he gets less attention from the defense.

Assuming Samuel won't be traded, there are still questions about his 2022 outlook. Will he be used as often at running back after the team drafted Tyrion Davis-Price in the third round? Will he get as many targets and as good quality targets from Trey Lance as he got from Jimmy Garoppolo? His ADP assumes a repeat of his outstanding 2021 campaign when there are some big ifs to work through for that to happen.

WR2/3 TIERS

ASCENDENT WR, PLUS SITUATION

• Tee Higgins, CIN
• Michael Pittman, IND
• Marquise Brown, ARI
• Gabriel Davis, BUF

Target: Brown, Davis

This group of third-year receivers should hit new heights, with situations that continue to improve around them. Davis is the cheapest by far, but could easily be just as productive.

Higgins’ step forward was overshadowed by teammate Jamarr Chase, but have no doubt that the arrow is pointing up. If defenses focus on Chase, Higgins could make it unclear who the most valuable Bengals receiver is.

Pittman elevated to WR2/WR3 levels last year in his second season. With a moderate to big improvement at quarterback in Matt Ryan (depending on who you ask), a jump to WR1 levels is in his range of outcomes. He’s a solid third-round pick.

Brown is going to an offense that will pass a lot more than Baltimore did historically, with a quarterback who he played with in college, on a team that will be missing their #1 receiver for the first six games. He has more upside than ADP indicates.

Davis’ path to opportunity was cleared this offseason, so the same team that played Emmanuel Sanders over him last year is ready to give him a full-time job. His chemistry with Josh Allen is unquestioned and he broke records in the most important game of the season for the team the last time we saw him. Don’t overthink this.

VETERAN WR, PLUS SITUATION

• Keenan Allen, LAC
• Allen Robinson, LAR
• Courtland Sutton, DEN
• Mike Williams, LAC
• Brandin Cooks, HOU
• Adam Thielen, MIN

Target: Robinson, Sutton

These vets are known quantities with WR2/WR3 (even WR1) production in their track records, and in situations that have the potential to push them to the positive end of their range of outcomes, with the exception of Cooks, who was shoehorned into this tier so he wouldn’t have to be in one of his own. Robinson and Sutton are coming off of down years, so they have the biggest discount.

Allen was consistent with a high floor and a mid-season run of WR1 level weeks. He could crush his ADP if Mike Williams can’t stay healthy and is highly unlikely to disappoint.

Robinson is playing in the best offense and with the best quarterback of his career. Unless 2021 was a sign of impending decline for Robinson, who will turn 29 before the season, he should be at least as productive (on a per-game basis) as Robert Woods and Odell Beckham were last year in the Rams WR2 role.

Sutton gets to play with the best quarterback of his career, and he’s another year removed from ACL surgery, priming him for peak numbers. His game maps well to DK Metcalf, who Russell Wilson brought out the best in back in Seattle.

Williams looked like one of the biggest hits of the fantasy season through Week 5, then hit the skids for four weeks and was forgotten in fantasy circles. For the rest of the season, he was usable in fantasy leagues as a solid WR3, and the team signed him to an extension that shows they see him as a key piece of the offense, which justifies his ADP.

Cooks just keeps producing, and it doesn’t matter how good or bad his quarterback or offense is. The Texans don’t have anyone that will challenge his target domination, and he and Davis Mills should only be better prepared this year as the rookie has the whole offense to get comfortable leading this offense.

Thielen is clearly not a downfield threat any longer, but Kirk Cousins relies on him to finish drives, and the whole passing game could get a bump that offsets any further physical decline, at least when it comes to the fantasy bottom line.

ASCENDENT WR, MINUS SITUATION

• A.J. Brown, PHI
• Jaylen Waddle, MIA
• D.J. Moore, CAR
• DK Metcalf, SEA
• Terry McLaurin, WAS
• Darnell Mooney, CHI
• Diontae Johnson, PIT

Target: Mooney
Avoid: Johnson

This group is tough to decipher. There’s a lot of talent on the upslope side of their career arc, but all are working against environmental factors to maximize their fantasy output. With a wide range of outcomes, getting this tier right (including whether to avoid it altogether) is very important.

Brown was already in a run-first offense and transcended the low pass volume to create fantasy success, but Tennessee had a less impressive supporting cast to share with. He could still outproduce ADP if Nick Sirianni uses the ample assets of the offense to keep defenses on their heels.

Waddle should get to run a lot more downfield routes this year, and he should frolic in secondaries that are more concerned with Tyreek Hill. The Dolphins pass offense could still be low volume and Hill might demand (literally) more targets than the youngster.

Moore has never produced up to his ability, but that’s not his fault. The Panthers offense could improve with Christian McCaffrey’s return, but if Moore produces like he did last year, you might wish you had taken a different wide receiver in the fourth.

Metcalf produced well with Geno Smith in Smith’s starts last year, but the possibility of Drew Lock starting still lurks, and the Seahawks offense projects to be one of the worst in the league.

Carson Wentz wasn’t good for the Colts pass offense last year, and he probably won’t be much of an improvement for the Commanders. Curtis Samuel should be back and the team drafted a receiver in the first round, so the target tree is getting wider to boot. McLaurin still hasn’t taken a big step forward in fantasy terms from his scalding rookie campaign.

Mooney’s numbers weren’t that different from McLaurin’s last year, and his offensive coaching and quarterback play could get a lot better. He won’t have Allen Robinson drawing coverage, so it could also be a long year for Mooney, although garbage time could save him if the Bears struggle mightily as a team.

Johnson was a volume play last year thanks to Ben Roethlisberger, who retired after the season. Mitchell Trubisky is set to begin the season as the starter barring an incredible summer from Kenny Pickett, but no matter who is starting at quarterback, the pass offense will take a hit. It's difficult to see Johnson as anything but an underachiever in this situation.

WR3/FLEX TIERS

OLE RELIABLES

• Robert Woods, TEN
• Tyler Boyd, CIN
• Hunter Renfrow, LV

Target: Woods, Boyd

This group gives you a high enough floor to justify plugging them in as your WR3/Flex, but they don’t come with a high ceiling.

Woods is coming off of an ACL tear, but he’s going to be the #1 receiver for Tennessee and volume alone could make him a big win at ADP.

Boyd was inconsistent in the first half of the year but leveled off as a solid WR3 when the offense clicked from Week 13 on. He wasn’t a big part of the offense in the playoffs, but a proven talent like Boyd in a good offense is too attractive to pass up at his low ADP.

Renfrow’s big numbers last year came mostly due to a stretch without Darren Waller and Davante Adams will further widen the target tree, but Renfrow was also a super consistent WR3 in PPR leagues before Waller went down, and his targets might be worth more with defenses using more resources to account for Adams.

CRYSTAL BALL CLOUDY

• Chris Godwin, TB
• Michael Thomas, NO
• Amari Cooper, CLE
• DeAndre Hopkins, ARI

Avoid: Cooper

This group could end up being WR1s, but also come with uncertainty about availability, return to form, or situation. They are best drafted as bench receivers but might come with a higher cost than a bench wide receiver should.

Godwin could be ready for Week 1, or he could start the season on the PUP list if his recovery is slow from a December ACL tear. The Bucs have Super Bowl aspirations, so they’ll be conservative, and he could have a slow start to the season once he is ready, so don’t draft him expecting big contributions in September.

Thomas’ condition is still unknown, as he hasn’t been able to practice yet. If he can’t practice to open camp, we have to assume he won’t be the same again. Until then, his range of outcomes is from a fantasy WR1 to a player that languishes on your bench while you wait for a resurgence that never comes.

Amari Cooper’s ADP reflects the uncertainty about the length of Deshaun Watson’s suspension. If it ends up being a full season or more, Cooper should fall a round or more, but if Watson is out for six games or fewer, Cooper’s ADP should rise.

Hopkins will miss the first six games, but one assumes that when he returns, he’ll go back to being the #1 receiver in the Cardinals offense, which will likely have to pass a lot this year. Patience will probably be rewarded here, especially in large-field tournaments.

TIME TO SHINE?

• Rashod Bateman, BAL
• Russell Gage, TB
• Drake London, ATL
• Allen Lazard, GB
• Treylon Burks, TEN

Target: Gage

This group of receivers will get their biggest fantasy opportunity yet (in some cases their first opportunity), but their ability to fully take advantage of that is still unknown.

Bateman will be the WR1 in a run-first offense, and he’s not a downfield speed threat. He could be a hit on volume if he can win with his routes and skills, or a bust if he’s not up to being the #1 receiver in his second year.

Gage was recruited by Tom Brady and has a chance to open the season as the #2 receiver in one of the league’s best pass offenses. Brady was able to support every-week starting value of three different wideouts last year, so as long as Gage executes, he’ll be a hit at ADP.

London was the first wide receiver off of the board and will be the Falcons' No. 1 wideout (if you don’t count Kyle Pitts) from day one. His best hope for returning value on ADP is if Pitts draws #1 corners, but chances are fantasy drafters are probably a year early with London.

Lazard will be Aaron Rodgers' No. 1 wideout now, and they have proven chemistry. Lazard doesn’t have the draft capital profile of a No. 1 but has been productive at times without Davante Adams on the field. He’s the kind of gamble you like to have at WR4 on your roster.

Burks didn’t have an auspicious start to his Titans tenure with conditioning issues and an asthma problem, but he’ll still have plenty of chances to show his immense physical talents, even if they come in an unrefined game for a first-round wide receiver.

GOOD TALENT, QUESTIONABLE OPPORTUNITY

• Jerry Jeudy, DEN
• Devonta Smith, PHI
• Elijah Moore, NYJ
• Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET
• Christian Kirk, JAX
• Tim Patrick, DEN
• Brandon Aiyuk, SF
• Tyler Lockett, SEA
• Chris Olave, NO
• Garrett Wilson, NYJ
• Chase Claypool, PIT

Target: Patrick

There’s not a lot of doubt about the quality of talent in this tier, but it’s difficult to know if they will get enough opportunity weekly and over the course of the season to justify their ADP or otherwise make you happy you drafted them.

Jeudy gets the big quarterback upgrade, but the Broncos passing game is crowded, and he might leave the field in two wide receiver sets, so it’s not clear that he’ll be worth more than Tim Patrick, who is going many rounds later.

Smith might be up and down in a low-volume passing offense with a wide target tree, but the potential for a hyperefficient offense that makes Smith’s peaks worth absorbing his valleys is in play.

Moore has the look of a player ticketed for stardom, but he needs better quarterback play, and the Jets just took a wide receiver at 1.10 and gave Braxton Berrios a contract that indicates that he’ll be involved on offense this year.

St. Brown was a strong fantasy WR1 down the stretch last year, and he’s a favorite of new offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. It’s still tough to shake the feeling that a big part of his production spike was out of necessity, and that an all-hands-on-deck pass offense might make his scoring profile look more like 2021 Tyler Boyd than 2021 Hunter Renfrow.

Kirk was paid like a No. 1 receiver by Jacksonville, but he’s better cast as a No. 2. The Jaguars have a lot of mouths to feed in the passing game. While their offense and quarterback play is sure to be improved, it might not be enough to create an every-week fantasy start at wide receiver without injuries thinning the depth chart.

Patrick is set to be a starting outside receiver. He’s perennially underrated and could justify ADP even if he’s the third target in the offense. He’ll crush his ADP if he’s the #2 target like his pay and role indicate he could be.

Aiyuk is plenty good enough to be an every-week fantasy receiver, but how can do that with Deebo Samuel and George Kittle on the roster in an offense that will be more run-heavy than ever?

Lockett’s production dropped off a cliff when Russell Wilson was hurt last year, so it’s difficult to bet on him being consistent enough to trust this year, even though he has the talent to pop every now and then no matter who his quarterback is.

The Saints gave up a king’s ransom to get Olave. He’ll be the #3 target if Michael Thomas is healthy and Jarvis Landry is his usual self, but he could be the #1 target if Thomas isn’t right physically and Landry doesn’t have the juice to be a downfield receiver anymore.

Wilson has a sky-high ceiling, but he is in a crowded and talented passing game with a questionable quarterback. You’ll need to be patient with him in redraft leagues.

BENCH WR TIERS

GOOD OPPORTUNITY, QUESTIONABLE TALENT

• Marquez Valdes-Scantling, KC
• JuJu Smith-Schuster, KC
• Mecole Hardman, KC
• Rondale Moore, ARI
• K.J. Osborn, MIN

Target: Valdes-Scantling

This group gives you a shot at the best Chiefs wide receiver play, hopes that Moore will deliver on his promise while DeAndre Hopkins is suspended, and the unknown upside of a solid, but not spectacular third receiver in an offense that makes that position a quasi-starter.

REDEMPTION WR

• Kenny Golladay, NYG
• Corey Davis, NYJ
• Robbie Anderson, CAR
• D.J. Chark, DET
• Kadarius Toney, NYG
• Parris Campbell, IND
• Curtis Samuel, WAS
• Laviska Shenault, JAX
• James Washington, DAL
• Bryan Edwards, ATL

Target: Golladay, Davis, Campbell

Some of the biggest fantasy hits at receiver every year are the bounce back/emergence from struggle plays. This group is available in the second half of your draft, with my favorites being the super cheap #1’s on the New York teams and another chip on Parris Campbell really staying healthy this time.

INJURY UPSIDE WR

• Van Jefferson, LAR
• Josh Palmer, LAC

This duo is great in large-field tournaments or large leagues with big benches or a limited waiver wire pool, but in more shallow leagues they may clog important bench spots you need to churn while you wait to see if one of the two receivers ahead of them go down.

ROOKIE WATCH

• Skyy Moore, KC
• Jalen Tolbert, DAL
• Alec Pierce, IND
• WanDale Robinson, NYG
• Jahan Dotson, WAS
• Christian Watson, GB
• Romeo Doubs, GB
• David Bell, CLE
• Kyle Phillips, TEN
• Velus Jones, CHI
• Justyn Ross, KC

Rookies not drafted in the first round are unlikely to hit, but it’s not impossible. Moore has the best situation, while Tolbert and Pierce have the best opportunity. This group will re-sort itself as we get reports from camp and preseason performances. Length of benches and size of league/tournament matter as you might have to wait for them to pay off, and sometimes with no actual return.

DELAYED IMPACT

• Michael Gallup, DAL
• Jameson Williams, DET
• Odell Beckham, FA
• Will Fuller, FA
• Julio Jones, FA

Avoid: Gallup

Gallup, Williams, and Beckham are unlikely to be ready for Week 1 and the reward for holding them through the ramp-up to play period is uncertain. Fuller and Jones don’t have teams and who knows what their role or effectiveness will be when they do. This group is probably better left for others to draft, and then to watch on the waiver wire when they get dropped out of impatience.

UNDERRATED VETERAN

• Marvin Jones, JAX
• Randall Cobb, GB
• Jarvis Landry, NO

Target: Jones, Cobb

This is a good group to fill out your bench because you’ll know early whether you have anything. Jones is the best red-zone receiver in a hopefully resurgent offense, Cobb could be the one Rodgers looks to in an inexperienced wide receiver group, and Landry could be the #1 target for Jameis Winston if Michael Thomas isn’t right and Chris Olave isn’t ready (Olave is considered the most pro-ready receiver in this class…)

SHRUG

• Kendrick Bourne, NE
• Jakobi Meyers, NE
• Devante Parker, NE
• Nelson Agholor, NE
• Tyquan Thornton, NE

Avoid: All of them

I can’t get too excited about a Belichick/Patricia/Judge offense led by Mac Jones with five viable wide receivers and two viable tight ends.

BEST BALL SLEEPER

• Nico Collins, HOU
• Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE
• Devin Duvernay, BAL

This group of receivers on the upslope side of their career arcs could be excellent late-round picks in Best Ball leagues with their big-play profiles, and there’s a small chance they are consistent enough to be redraft assets, but their situations point to weekly inconsistency no matter how big of a step forward they take this year.

WATCH LIST

• Jamison Crowder, BUF
• Isaiah McKenzie, BUF
• Sammy Watkins, GB
• Amari Rodgers, GB
• Olamide Zaccheaus, ATL
• Dyami Brown, WAS
• Jaelon Darden, TB
• Tyler Johnson, TB
• Scott Miller, TB
• Terrace Marshall, CAR
• Nick Westbrook-Ikhene, TEN
• Ashton Dulin, IND
• Keelan Cole, LV
• Byron Pringle, CHI
• Zay Jones, JAX
• A.J. Green, ARI
• Cedrick Wilson, MIA
• Braxton Berrios, NYJ
• James Proche, BAL
• K.J. Hamler, DEN

This list is not exhaustive, but it should give you an idea of the ambiguous situations and potential for change during camp and the preseason on team depth charts and in our perception of fantasy value. As always, we’ll be on top of every development to help you win your league and enjoy this fantasy football season.