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Let’s begin this exercise with a reminder that having only one starting quarterback spot in lineups cuts down on the strategy element of drafting and lineup setting with at least 12 quarterbacks who are likely to score at historical fantasy QB1 levels. Consider adding a Superflex spot that includes quarterback as an option or a second quarterback spot in your redraft league’s starting lineups. Dynasty is a bit trickier as decisions have been made already that rely on the 1QB lineup setting, but if you are starting a new dynasty league, Superflex/2QB is a lot more fun.
This year’s quarterback group has more potential for scoring decreases at the top than scoring increases, but that could make an early investment in Josh Allen more valuable, and if you hit on the QB1 who most greatly exceeds ADP value (Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, and Trey Lance come to mind), it could be a key to winning your league - even if you only start one.
THE QB1
- Josh Allen, BUF
Allen stands alone because his durability, situation stability, and fantasy track records/trends all make him the safest elite fantasy quarterback. He might not finish #1, but he’s unlikely to finish outside of the top 5.
THE QB1 CEILING
- Kyler Murray, ARI
- Justin Herbert, LAC
- Lamar Jackson, BAL
TARGET: Murray
All of these quarterbacks have a QB1 finish within reach, but there are obstacles in the way.
Murray’s durability record and missing DeAndre Hopkins for the first six games gives fantasy drafters pause, but a no-name cornerback group could get him into a lot of shootouts. If his rushing production returns to 2020 levels, he’ll be the fantasy QB1 as long as he’s healthy.
Herbert’s arrow is pointing up, but his pass attempts also spiked in 2021. More balance could take the edge off of his upside, but he’s the safest top five pick at quarterback after Allen.
Jackson’s rush upside should be through the roof this year with a reported return to the 2019 blueprint for the offense, but the Ravens don’t have a field stretcher at wide receiver like they did then and teams have a lot more experience defending Jackson. There’s a wide gap between Jackson’s floor and ceiling this year.
SOLID QB1
- Patrick Mahomes II, KC
- Jalen Hurts, PHI
- Tom Brady, TB
- Russell Wilson, DEN
- Aaron Rodgers, GB
- Joe Burrow, CIN
- Trey Lance, SF
- Matthew Stafford, LAR
TARGET: Wilson, Lance
AVOID: Mahomes
A QB1 overall finish is unlikely for this group, but they are very likely to be in the top 12-15 and score close to the last QB1 in any scenario.
Mahomes without Tyreek Hill is largely an unknown, but we saw him reinvent himself last year and he has latent rushing upside. The top range of outcomes comes down without Hill, but his ADP will probably be too high due to his reputation.
Hurts' low pass attempts will keep him out of the truly elite fantasy quarterback group, but efficiency could go up significantly with the addition of A.J. Brown. He’s a worthy target at ADP.
Brady is ultrasafe piloting a pass-heavy offense, but he won’t have Antonio Brown this year, and Chris Godwin is coming off of a torn ACL, so Brady will likely be down from his 2021 peak, but not so much to knock him out of the solid TE1 tier.
Wilson is an exciting proposition with the possibility of finally playing in an offense that embraces his talents, surrounded by pass-catching talent. His dropoff last year could have been mostly due to his finger injury. He’s a good target if you want to wait until at least 6-8 teams have their quarterback.
Rodgers' fantasy output without Davante Adams over the last few years has been strong and the sample is large enough (seven games in three years) to trust that he will be a solid contributor, even if losing Adams has lowered his season-long and weekly ceiling.
It won’t be shocking if Burrow moves up into the top-five fantasy quarterbacks this year. His line is improved and his young wide receiver corps has fully hit their stride. His numbers benefited from two massive games late in the season, but he also had a surprisingly low number of pass attempts as the pilot of a top pass offense.
Lance is a true boom/bust pick this year, but he appears to be the unquestioned starter and the only running quarterback to play in a Kyle Shanahan offense (Robert Griffin III III) was a smashing success with a supporting cast that was nowhere near as good as this one. He could be anywhere from a frustrating peak and valley play to a league winner.
Stafford getting an offseason injection in his throwing elbow is worrisome, but adding Allen Robinson should keep this pass offense and Stafford’s fantasy prospects strong as long as the quarterback is healthy.
STRONG QB2 WITH SOLID QB1 UPSIDE
- Dak Prescott, DAL
- Derek Carr, LV
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