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Atlanta
The Falcons re-signed RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson to a two-year, $10.5 million deal
Why It Matters: Patterson returns to an offense that has now lost its top two receivers and long-time quarterback. Patterson and Kyle Pitts will be the primary (and only true) threats this offense presents to opposing defenses, so Patterson has lots of volume-based paths to value, especially if his pass-catching involvement comes back to 2021 first-half levels. He also should have universal running back eligibility this year. Patterson’s ADP will rise on the news of his return to the Falcons, but unless it gets into the top 50-60, it will be a good value as head coach Arthur Smith has already demonstrated a strong willingness to use Patterson in multiple ways and he’s being paid like a core piece in a rebuilding offense.
The Falcons traded Matt Ryan to the Colts for a third-round pick, and signed QB Marcus Mariota to a one-year, $6.75 million deal with a $12 million option for 2023.
Why It Matters: It’s the end of an era in Atlanta and an unceremonious one at that. Ryan famously got the team to the doorstep of a Super Bowl victory, and that collapse sadly overshadowed a strong franchise QB, 14-season, 120-102 tenure for Ryan, who won three division titles and went to the playoffs as a wild card three times. Meanwhile, Mariota and Arthur Smith will try to reproduce the success Smith had with Ryan Tannehill, who took Mariota’s job when Smith was the offensive coordinator for the Titans. The Falcons are almost surely going to be drafting in the top five in 2023, while Mariota will have a big opportunity to rehabilitate his career. He should matter in 2QB/Superflex league with Smith’s likelihood to leverage his running ability, and he might even matter in typical leagues if he shows the form he flashed during his one start in 2020, when he accounted for 88 rushing yards, 226 passing yards, 1 passing touchdown, and 1 rushing touchdown.
Buffalo
The Bills signed WR Jamison Crowder (New York Jets) and RB Duke Johnson Jr (Miami) to one-year deals
Why It Matters: The team missed out on J.D. McKissic, but Johnson could be a bargain version. He still isn’t much of a threat to Devin Singletary’s restored value, but the team could use their first-round pick on Iowa State’s Breece Hall, considered the top running back prospect by most. Stay tuned. Crowder helps reinforce the depth in the offense but complicates the path to value for Isaiah McKenzie, who posted an 11-125-1 line in the game Cole Beasley missed last year. This might be a waiver wire wait-and-see situation, but know that Josh Allen can give temporary fantasy value to just about anyone with adequate opportunity.
Carolina
The Panthers signed LB Cory Littleton (Las Vegas) to a one-year, $2.6 million deal
Why It Matters: Littleton has a chance to gobble up tackles on a bottom-dweller team, so he’ll be a late-round flyer in IDP leagues. He’ll go down as one of the worst signings of the Gruden/Mayock Raiders.
The Panthers re-signed CB Donte Jackson to a three-year, $35.1 million deal
Why It Matters: Jackson and 2021 #8 pick Jaycee Horn will hopefully be a strength of a team that will need to win with their defense. It’s a bit surprising that Jackson didn’t get a bigger deal elsewhere. Consider this one a W for the Panthers.
The Panthers signed WR D.J. Moore to a three-year, $61.9 million extension, with 41.6 million guaranteed
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Why It Matters: Moore gets security and generational wealth entering only his fourth year and avoids the franchise tag in 2023 with this deal. The Panthers have uncertainty from top to bottom, so we’ll see if this ends up putting him on the Allen Robinson fantasy underachiever career path. Meanwhile, we’ll wait to see if the Panthers take Liberty’s Malik Willis or Pitt’s Kenny Pickett at #6 after sending big contingents to each quarterback’s pro day this week.
Cincinnati
The Bengals signed OL La’el Collins (Dallas) to a three-year, $30 million deal
Why It Matters: This is a huge win for the Bengals, who get one of the better right tackles in the NFL at a reasonable price, basically the same contract he had in Dallas before he was released. Right tackle was the sorest spot on the line, but it now becomes a strength. The Bengals are in solid shape from the weakest link perspective on the line even though they haven’t broken the bank to rebuild it.
Cleveland
The Browns traded three first-round picks, a third, and a fourth to the Texans for Deshaun Watson and a fifth-round pick. A grand jury in Brazoria, Texas is considering criminal charges against Watson.
Why It Matters: We can write thousands of words about the fantasy implications here, starting with the big boost it represents for Amari Cooper after his fortunes originally fell upon his trade to Cleveland. Watson also signed a five-year, $230 million fully guaranteed contract, but one wonders what outs the Browns gave themselves after it came out that a second grand jury is weighing charges even though it has been reported that the Browns were aware of this when they made the trade. The Browns' destiny is obviously changed and Baker Mayfield will want to play for a new team, but it’s not clear when and where Mayfield go and exactly how Watson will alter the trajectory of the franchise.
The Browns traded QB Case Keenum to Buffalo for a seventh-round pick and signed Jacoby Brissett to a one-year deal
Why It Matters: A suspension for Watson in 2022 is very much in play, and one that lasts 6-8 games wouldn’t be shocking. Keenum might have been the better fit in an offense designed around Baker Mayfield’s strengths, but Brissett was deemed the better for a Watson-led offense, and he could be put to the test right away in an effort to keep the Browns playoff hopes afloat while Watson sits with the Texans holding the Browns 2023 first-round pick to up the stakes.
Dallas
The Cowboys signed WR James Washington (Pittsburgh) to a one-year contract
Why It Matters: Fellow former Oklahoma State receiver Dez Bryant called this one last week. Michael Gallup is the clear #2 for the team, but he might not be ready for the start of the season, and Washington gives them more skill and depth outside to give them a wider berth to be patient with that recovery. Washington is still well above average at the catch point and can make plays downfield, so he could be an early-season surprise if he runs with the starters ahead of Noah Brown, who the team also brought back in free agency this year.
Green Bay
The Packers re-signed TE Robert Tonyan Jr
Why It Matters: Tonyan scored three times in one of the games he played when Davante Adams sat, so he could be in for a big boost in fantasy value as one of Aaron Rodgers' favorite receivers, especially in the red zone. Put him on your tight end target list whether you take an early tight end or not.
The Packers re-signed CB Rasul Douglas to a three-year, $21 million deal
Why It Matters: Douglas came alive after joining the Packers and made many impact plays for the defense. Letting Davante Adams walk has made it easier for the team to keep 2021 breakout players like him and DeVondre Campbell, and extend Preston Smith. They’ll be fine in the post-Adams era as long as Rodgers is still around.
Houston
The Browns traded three first-round picks, a third, and two fourths to the Texans for Deshaun Watson and a fifth-round pick
Why It Matters: We knew Watson had played his last game as a Texan last summer. The team is highly unlikely to take a quarterback at #3 and will let Davis Mills have at least another year to prove that he’s an NFL starting quarterback.
Indianapolis
The Colts traded a third-round pick to the Falcons for Matt Ryan
Why It Matters: The Colts are probably better than they were in 2020 with Philip Rivers, when they lost to the Bills in the wild card round, as Ryan is well-suited to take care of the ball and keep the offense on schedule. The case for Jonathan Taylor to go #1 in fantasy drafts got stronger, and Michael Pittman will get to do a Julio Jones impression as Ryan’s clear #1 target. Even Mo Alie-Cox is more interesting now. General manager Chris Ballard somehow came out ahead on swapping Carson Wentz for Ryan this offseason.
Kansas City
The Dolphins traded 2022 pick #29, 2022 pick #50, a 2022 fourth, and 2023 fourth- and sixth-round picks to the Chiefs for WR Tyreek Hill
Why It Matters: Hill wasn’t going to be a free agent until next year, but he wanted to be the highest-paid receiver in the NFL. The Chiefs knew they weren’t willing to do that, so they cashed him in for draft capital to a team that was willing to pay him. Patrick Mahomes II' fantasy value takes a hit, but probably not as big as the fantasy market will actually give him in ADP. Travis Kelce could be hurt by the loss of Hill, efficiency-wise, but his volume will be maxed out, and Mecole Hardman, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire all have openings to matter a lot more in fantasy leagues this year in a Chiefs offense that evolved to take what the defense gave them this year.
The Chiefs signed WR JuJu Smith-Schuster to a one-year, $3.25 million deal and WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Green Bay) to a three-year, $30 million deal
Why It Matters: The contract is meager, but the opportunity is huge with Smith-Schuster coming into an offense with a top quarterback and recently vacated #1 wide receiver job. He’ll be worth a late-round pick, if not more depending on the early reports about the nature and size of his role in a prove-it year. Valdes-Scantling will give the team a credible deep threat and he couldn't have landed in a much better spot for fantasy. He's one of the biggest winners of the free-agent period to date.
LA Chargers
The Chargers signed TE Gerald Everett (Seattle) to a two-year, $12 million deal
Why It Matters: Donald Parham just isn’t going to get his chance to shine in this offense. Everett had some ups and downs with Seattle and failed to generate consistent fantasy value. He has a theoretical opportunity to do that with the Chargers, but Parham is still there and the pass offense still runs through Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams. Everett is early season waiver wire watch list material because of the quarterback he is attached to.
LA Rams
The Rams traded WR Robert Woods to Tennessee for a sixth-round pick
Why It Matters: The runway is clear now for Allen Robinson to post strong fantasy numbers even though Cooper Kupp is still the headliner here. The Rams offense shouldn’t miss a beat without Woods, although it is a loss to move him for less than his
The Rams signed Matthew Stafford to a four-year, $160 million extension with $135 million guaranteed
Why It Matters: Stafford got his Super Bowl ring pay bump and the Rams got their security that Stafford should retire a member of the team while they go after another championship. The value of all of the Rams' offensive pieces was stabilized by this expected move.
Miami
The Dolphins traded 2022 pick #29, 2022 pick #50, a 2022 fourth, and 2023 fourth- and sixth-round picks to the Chiefs for WR Tyreek Hill
Why It Matters: Both the Jets and Dolphins were willing to give a hefty package of draft picks for Hill and meet his four-year, $120 million contract demands, but Hill chose the Dolphins. New head coach Mike McDaniel has the weapons to put defenses on their heels with Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Mike Gesicki. The pay bar for wide receiver has been raised high enough to wonder what happens with players like Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, and Diontae Johnson set to hit free agency next year. It could even push more wide receivers into the first round of the draft in April, so teams can have a cost-controlled fifth-year option on the position with the fastest escalating salaries this side of quarterback. Hill’s value is obviously down after this move, but don’t move Jaylen Waddle down too much as he could actually benefit from Hill’s presence despite it cutting into his presumed dominance atop the target tree before this move was made. The whole Dolphins offense should get more productive and efficient with Hill.
The Dolphins signed OL Terron Armstead (New Orleans) to a five-year, $75 million deal
Why It Matters: The Dolphins have spent a first-round pick on OT Austin Jackson in 2020 and a second-round pick on OT Liam Eichenberg in 2021, but still decided to sign the 30-year-old to a top of the market deal. It obviously helps the offense greatly if Armstead can stay on the field (he has played in 10 or fewer games in 4 of the last 6 years), and he fits the athletic style of tackle needed in the Mike McDaniel running game. Between this move and the trade for Tyreek Hill, Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins offense has a much higher chance of succeeding this year.
The Dolphins re-signed TE Durham Smythe to a two-year, $8 million deal
Why It Matters: Smythe’s blocking prowess will be valued by Mike McDaniel, and at least in theory, he’ll lower Mike Gesicki’s ceiling. If McDaniel can use Gesicki in mismatches up the seam while defenses are confounded by his running game and twin speed threats Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill, Gesicki will be a hit even if his target share goes down significantly this year.
Minnesota
The Vikings signed EDGE ZaDarius Smith (Green Bay) to a three-year, $42 million deal.
Why It Matters: Smith signed for significantly more than the deal with Baltimore that Smith backed out on, explaining the 180. The Vikings still see themselves as contenders between this move, extending Kirk Cousins through 2023, picking up Danielle Hunter’s 18 million dollar roster bonus, and then reworking his deal to lower his 2022 cap number. Perhaps Mike Zimmer holding back the offense and game management was a bigger obstacle to the Vikings hitting their ceiling than we think.
New Orleans
The Saints re-signed QB Jameis Winston to a two-year, $28 million deal
Why It Matters: After losing out on Deshaun Watson, the Saints predictably turned their focus back to Winston, who has gotten a raise on each of his three contracts with the Saints. If he recovers well from ACL surgery, we could see a continuation of 2021 Winston, which was about as good as he has played in his NFL career. He’ll also get Michael Thomas back, so don’t count Winston out as a sleeper in 2QB/Superflex leagues.
New York Giants
The Giants signed RB Matt Breida (Buffalo) to a one-year deal
Why It Matters: The new regime also brought over Antonio Williams, so there are two former Bills poised to fight for playing time behind Saquon Barkley, or more if Barkley is traded before the season. Brian Daboll must have liked something about Breida’s game even though he was marginalized after being productive in a small role and then losing it after a costly fumble.
Philadelphia
The Eagles re-signed RB Boston Scott to a one-year, $1.75 million deal and signed WR Zach Pascal (Indianapolis) to a one-year deal
Why It Matters: The Eagles aren’t making splashy moves on the offensive side of the ball. After not tendering the restricted free agent Scott, they brought him back on a bargain deal, which complicates the depth chart behind Miles Sanders. Pascal is a good swiss army knife who also contributes on special teams. Head coach Nick Sirianni knows him well from their time together in Indianapolis.
San Francisco
Matt Maiocco (NBC Sports) said he’s not sure "anybody knows" if QB Trey Lance is ready to start
Why It Matters: This is could be "it’s actually a good thing if Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t traded" tracks covering, but with the Colts trade for Matt Ryan, it’s looking like Garoppolo will be with the 49ers through at least the start of camp unless another team suffers a catastrophic injury to their starter before then (and maybe he’ll only get traded if that happens after the start of camp). Lance has a lot of speculative value as a running quarterback in a good offense, but it’s possible that we don’t see him start until 2023.
The 49ers re-signed RB Jeff Wilson
Why It Matters: After the team was connected to bringing back Raheem Mostert, instead it’s Wilson, who is no threat to Elijah Mitchell’s value next year. Wilson could be better this year after coming back from summer meniscus surgery during the 2021 season. He’ll have instant waiver wire value if Mitchell misses time, which happened more than once last year.
Seattle
The Seahawks re-signed RB Rashaad Penny to a one-year, $5.75 million deal
Why It Matters: From the looks of the amount of this deal, expect a full-blown RBBC with Penny and Chris Carson, that is if Carson recovers fully from neck surgery. Penny’s durability record is even more suspect, so we could see whoever the third-string back is sooner than later. The offense will be low wattage with Drew Lock slated to start and the situation unlikely to improve much unless you consider an unlikely trade for Baker Mayfield or Jimmy Garoppolo a material improvement.
Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers re-signed RB Leonard Fournette to a three-year, $21 million deal
Why It Matters: With Ronald Jones II moving on, Fournette is the clear lead back in a top-notch offense. It’s not absurd to take him in the second round of PPR leagues.
Tennessee
The Titans acquired WR Robert Woods from the Los Angeles Rams for a sixth-round pick
Why It Matters: Woods won’t be reliable for fantasy unless A.J. Brown misses time, but he will be a great fit for this offense that values run blocking and downfield route running off of play-action. The Titans would love to have the #58 pick after trading it for Julio Jones last year, but this move makes it so their offense won’t be greatly affected by the misfire, assuming a full recovery for Woods from ACL surgery.
The Titans signed TE Austin Hooper (Cleveland) to a one-year, $6 million deal
Why It Matters: Hooper will represent a marked improvement from the no-name group the Titans trotted out at tight end last year, and he is coming a lot cheaper than he did for the Browns two years ago when he hit free agency. He’ll have injury/bye fill-in value and help the Titans more than he helps fantasy teams.
The Titans re-signed RB Dontrell Hilliard
Why It Matters: D’Onta Foreman is with Carolina now, so Hilliard has a chance to be the primary backup to Derrick Henry after he had some explosive plays in extended action following Henry’s foot injury last year. If you believe Henry is breaking down, Hilliard is a name to remember
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