Passing Matchups Week 9

Go here for this week's Rushing Matchups.

Top 5 Passing Matchups

NY Jets vs LA Chargers

Somehow, the Jets are 4-3 on the season after losing Aaron Rodgers just three snaps into the NFL season. Zach Wilson's passing numbers have not been pretty this season as he has not topped 250 passing yards in a game, has thrown for less than 200 yards in five games his season, and has just five passing touchdowns, but thanks to their defense, Wilson can do just enough to pull out wins. In the last two weeks, we've seen the Jets switch to an offense that keeps it simple, as their passing offense has turned into Zach Wilson looking for Garrett Wilson and then checking it down to Breece Hall to get him in space. Alan Lazard is the only player over the last two games who has topped 25 receiving yards besides Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, and that was thanks to a deep downfield gain for 29 yards last week. The one thing to give credit to the Jets here is that they understand who they are, which is a team with a limited quarterback, a strong rushing attack, and a defense that can keep them in most games with the slimmest of hope of Aaron Rodgers coming back if they can somehow make the playoffs.

The Chargers’ secondary is a mess. This is a passing defense that allows 50 more yards than the second-closest defense on the season, as every quarterback that they have faced has thrown for 230 passing yards or more. For a defense that is allowing 321 passing yards per game, you would expect them to be playing the league's best every week, but they have faced Tyson Bagent, Ryan Tannehill, and Aidan O'Connell as three of the seven quarterbacks they have faced this season. The issue is that outside of Asante Samuel Jr, their secondary is filled with holes as corners Ja'Sir Taylor and Michael Davis have been liabilities in coverage, while Derwin James has seen a massive decline this season in coverage. This is a defense that relies heavily on their pass rush which has been inconsistent this season. Still, when it is good, it is among the league's best as Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa can make up a game-changing duo, but we have seen it disappear at times as, over the last two weeks, the Chargers have just two total sacks.

New England vs Washington

The Patriots passing attack has been a struggle all season, and it got even worse this past week as their breakout leading receiver, Kendrick Bourne, is out for the year with a torn ACL. Outside of Kendrick Bourne, the only other receiver who has averaged over 25 yards receiving per game is Demario Douglas, who is a sixth-round rookie out of Liberty. Beyond that, it is especially bleak for the Patriots as DeVante Parker (22 yards per game) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (14 yards per game) are the only other two receivers to have an impact this season. So, expect a lot of volume to the tight ends in Hunter Henry, Pharoah Brown, and potentially Mike Gesicki, although he may be falling out of favor in New England. This is a passing offense that has thrown for 200 yards or less in four of its last five games but should have an opportunity to exploit this Washington defense this week.

This Washington defense could unravel quickly. Before this week, this was already the defense that allowed the third-most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks, and the trades that were made this week certainly won't help. This week, the Commanders traded both Montez Sweat and Chase Young, which will leave this defense incredibly thin along the defensive line outside of Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne. In the secondary, it is a stars-and-scrubs type of unit that has been assembled. As bad as this defense has been this season, Kendall Fuller is still having a great year. However, there are some massive holes in this defense, particularly at slot corner and safety as Danny Johnson and safety Percy Butler have both been liabilities in the secondary, causing major issues. This is a defense that is allowing 275 passing yards or more in each of their last five games to quarterbacks Desmond Ridder, Tyrod Taylor, Justin Fields, and Jalen Hurts twice. If this defense cannot rush the passer, it could make for a long day for the secondary.

Houston vs Tampa Bay

C.J. Stroud and the Houston passing offense have struggled over the last several weeks after getting out to an incredible pace to start the season. Stroud has averaged just 196 passing yards over his last three games while failing to throw for over 200 yards in the previous two games against New Orleans and Carolina. Stroud, in his prior three games, had averaged 323 passing yards heading into this streak. The big difference is the level of competition. As for rookies, we expect them to have the arm talent to take advantage of good matchups in Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and Pittsburgh but struggle against some of the more difficult teams in the NFL in Carolina, Atlanta, and New Orleans, which are top 10 passing defenses. Not helping matters for the Texans is the complete lack of running game as they're averaging just 3.3 yards-per-carry on the season as the duo of Devin Singletary and Dameon Pierce has not worked out putting additional pressure on Stroud and this passing attack each week.

Tampa Bay's secondary has struggled this season, albeit they've faced a very difficult schedule so far in the 2023 season. On the year, they've allowed three 300+ passing yards to Kirk Cousins, Josh Allen, and Jared Goff while also allowing 250 or more to Desmond Ridder and Jalen Hurts. The question will be, as they face further competition, how will they perform, as their only other two games are against Derek Carr when he had a shoulder injury and could not throw the ball, as well as Justin Fields back in Week 2 when the Bears offense was a complete mess. On the defensive side of the ball, the Buccaneers are held back by Ryan Neal, one of the worst coverage safeties in the NFL this season. After a strong 2022 season, Neal was a veteran minimum free agent signing who likely is a better depth guy than a starter. The Buccaneers' corners are just a group of average to slightly below average guys, as Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis are excellent in run defense but have struggled with consistency in coverage, while undrafted rookie Christian Izien is what you would expect from an undrafted rookie.

Dallas at Philadelphia

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys have seemingly been under the radar all season. It's likely because their games have not been particularly interesting this season, as six of their seven have been decided by 10 points or more, and an average of 27 points over that stretch. We don't know how good this team is, which will make for a great test this week against Philadelphia, as their schedule has been one of the easiest in the NFL to date as they've faced the Giants, Jets, Cardinals, Patriots, 49ers, Chargers, and Rams with the only two teams above .500 being the 49ers and Jets. The Cowboys gave the Cardinals their lone win this season. Dak Prescott has been a fine game manager this season. Still, last week was the first week where we finally saw that there is some explosiveness to this offense as CeeDee Lamb had 12 receptions for 158 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Rams, while Brandin Cooks and Jake Ferguson both added touchdowns last week. This is a team that needs to get as many wins as possible early in the season as their schedule is backloaded facing Seattle, Philadelphia, Buffalo, Miami, and Detroit five consecutive weeks from Weeks 13-17.

Philadelphia's secondary continues to be a problem for the Super Bowl contenders. After it appeared that they had the issues fixed, last week, Sam Howell and the Commanders threw for 397 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Eagles, which was the fourth quarterback to throw for 290 yards or more, as Sam Howell has done twice, Kirk Cousins, and Mac Jones both did it. Darius Slay is starting to show his age as the 32-year-old corner has allowed the 12th-most receiving yards against this season, while also allowing the 7th-most receptions. This was one of the best defenses in the NFL in 2022, but allowing both of their safeties to leave this offseason has made a significant impact. The hope is that newly acquired two-time First Team All-Pro Safety Kevin Byard will help solidify the back end of this defense, but while Byard played 100% of snaps last week, it made little impact as Sam Howell tore through this defense.

Buffalo at Cincinnati

Josh Allen missed practice on Wednesday due to a shoulder injury in his throwing arm, but the team does not seem too concerned about it. While it's likely that the Bills are just letting their veteran rest for an extra day, it's not anything that the Bills had the mini-bye driven by the Thursday game in Week 8. Allen has been tremendous this season, as he leads the NFL in fantasy points, has the 5th-most passing yards, and surprisingly is leading the NFL in completion percentage this season. Last week, we saw signs of this offense potentially adding another dimension, as with no Dawson Knox, the team was able to spread the ball around to Gabriel Davis and Khalil Shakir, while getting rookie Dalton Kincaid in the mix alongside All-Pro Stefon Diggs. The Bills are extremely dangerous when spreading the ball around, as combining that with Allen's mobility makes it almost impossible for defenses to defend compared to games where Stefon Diggs gets the majority of targets.

At this point of the season, this is where we start to look at teams that are trending downward instead of just looking at full-season stats. Overall, the passing numbers for the Bengals are somewhat average, as they've allowed the 12th-most passing yards to quarterbacks, 20th-most touchdowns, and 20th-most fantasy points to the quarterback position. However, the concern here is that in the last two weeks, the defense has allowed an average of 344 passing yards to Brock Purdy and Geno Smith. Before these last two games, it was a defense that had been very good. Only Matthew Stafford had thrown for over 250 yards this season; he threw for 269. The likely answer for the recent fall-off is a combination of a couple of things. First, the schedule early on in the season was very easy, facing Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson, Matthew Stafford, Ryan Tannehill, and Joshua Dobbs. Second, the Bengals' offense was a mess in the first five games of the season. It was clear that Joe Burrow was not 100% healthy, and teams did not need to throw the ball against this offense. Now that Burrow is looking close to 100%, we've seen an uptick from 30 pass attempts per game in the first five weeks to 36 pass attempts per game over the last two weeks. This is a defense that is extremely young at corner as Cam Taylor-Britt is in his second season, while D.J. Turner is a second-round rookie who has taken snaps away from Chidobe Awuzie who has been dealing with injuries throughout the season. The big problem for the Bengals this season has been safety, as Nick Scott has been one of the worst coverage safeties in the NFL as the 49ers took advantage with George Kittle catching 9 passes for 149 yards last week.

Bottom 5 Passing Matchups

Philadelphia vs Dallas

The Eagles’ passing offense has quickly emerged as one of the league's best. Over the last six games, Jalen Hurts has thrown for 275 yards or more in each of those games while averaging 296. A big reason for the Eagles' success has been A.J. Brown, who is quickly elevating himself from a very good receiver to one of the game's elite players. Brown set the record last week for the most consecutive games of 125 yards receiving or more as he has now done this in six consecutive games. This offense is incredibly difficult to defend. Even though Devonta Smith has had a disappointing season, he showed last week that he can still make a tremendous impact on the game as he had 7 receptions for 99 yards including a touchdown. This is the best offensive line in the NFL by a fairly wide margin, according to Footballguys expert Matt Bitonti. They have ranked as his number one offensive line for over a year, led by center Jason Kelce and tackles Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson. This gives Jalen Hurts plenty of time, making it even more difficult to stop Brown, Smith, and tight end Dallas Goedert.

Dallas' pass defense has been tremendous this season as they are allowing the second-fewest passing yards per game, fourth-most interceptions, third-fewest completion percentage, and second-fewest fantasy points. Last week, the Cowboys completely shut down the Rams, holding Matthew Stafford to 204 yards, including knocking out Matthew Stafford from the game. Outside of one poor performance by Brock Purdy in which he threw for 252 yards and 4 touchdowns, no quarterback has thrown for over 230 yards. The schedule has been somewhat soft this season as they've faced Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson, Joshua Dobbs, Mac Jones, Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert, and Matthew Stafford/Brett Rypien. This is a defense that, even with the loss of Trevon Diggs, has three very good corners, Daron Bland, Stefon Gilmore, and Jourdan Lewis, but it is the defensive line that makes this defense elite. Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence make up arguably the best pairing of pass rushers in the NFL this season.

Miami at Kansas City (in Germany)

This is a big game for Miami this week, taking on Kansas City as Miami is still trying to find out whether they are a true contender or whether they are a gatekeeper beating the teams they're supposed to, but any time they step up in class they lose handily. On the season, Miami has beaten teams with a combined record of 13-33, while Miami's two losses are to teams with a record of 12-4 as they lost to the Eagles and Buffalo by an average of 21 points. This is a passing offense that so far has shown that it is among the league's best as they lead the NFL in passing yards, while Tyreek Hill is on pace for a 2,000 receiving yard season. Hill has been the backbone of this offense, and this week gets to face his former team, the Chiefs, for the first time. Besides Hill, Jaylen Waddle has had a bit of a disappointing season but did show last week that a breakout second half may be coming, as Waddle had 121 yards and a touchdown on a season-high 12 targets. If the Dolphins can consistently get both Waddle and Hill going, this makes for an incredibly dangerous duo especially once De'Von Achane comes back as defenses will need to respect the rushing attack as Raheem Mostert is struggling as of late.

The Chiefs’ secondary has been impressive this season. For as high-powered of an offense as they possess, they are allowing just 199 passing yards per game, which is the fourth-best in the NFL this season, and no quarterback has thrown for over 300 yards against them. A big reason for the Chiefs' success this season is the play of Trent McDuffie who has elevated himself to be in the conversation for a potential Pro Bowl spot this season alongside L'Jarius Sneed, who continues to be a solid cornerback for the Chiefs. The one concern heading into this season was how the safeties would perform given the loss of Juan Thornhill, but second-year safety Bryan Cook has been good enough for this defense this season. The real bright spot for the Chiefs this season has been their pass rush. With the loss of Frank Clark in the offseason and the early season injury to Chris Jones, this is still a defense that has the second-most sacks in the NFL this season, as George Karlaftis, Chris Jones, and Mike Danna all have five or more sacks on the year.

Seattle at Baltimore

The Seahawks’ passing attack has been right around league average this season, as Geno Smith averages 234 yards passing per game. This had previously been an offense some thought would see growth compared to last year based on the first-round pick of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but it's been a slow start for the rookie. Smith-Njigba has averaged just 30 yards receiving per game, as he's primarily being used in the screen and quick pass game. One thing to monitor this week is the health of Tyler Lockett, who missed practice on Wednesday as he is dealing with a hamstring injury that has been bothering him for the last few weeks. One interesting thing for the Seahawks is that Geno Smith in Seattle has been much better on the road than at home, as on the road this season, he is averaging 254 passing yards per game compared to 220 at home. The road number is brought down even further due to a game against the Giants where he threw for just 110 yards as the Seahawks dominated from start to finish, but in his other two games, he topped 300 yards this season. Smith has completed over 70% of his passes on the road in each of his last three seasons compared to just 66% at home.

Baltimore's secondary is arguably one of the league's best this season. This is a defense that seemingly has no holes, especially now that safety Geno Stone has come from out of nowhere to become one of the league's best coverage safeties this year. On the year, the Ravens are allowing just 209 passing yards per game, which is the 8th-best in the NFL, but what is more impressive is that this defense has faced the third-most pass attempts as teams are throwing against them 39 times per game on average. While the competition has been somewhat weak facing C.J. Stroud, an injured Joe Burrow, Gardner Minshew, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Kenny Pickett, Ryan Tannehill, Jared Goff, and Joshua Dobbs, only Jared Goff has thrown for over 230 yards against this defense. This is arguably the best-coached unit in the NFL and with the best personnel as there are no weaknesses to exploit in this secondary while having to deal with a pass rush that has the most sacks in the NFL this season with 31.

Chicago at New Orleans

Tyson Bagent will start for the Bears once again this week as Justin Fields remains week-to-week. For Bagent, it's been a mixed bag, but he has far exceeded expectations for an undrafted rookie even in his two starts. For a roster with not a lot of talent around him, Bagent looks poised, doesn't try to do too much, and gets the ball out quickly. However, in his two starts, he's yet to face a difficult road environment as his one road start was against the league's worst pass defense in the Chargers last week, and he threw for 232 yards with 2 interceptions. There needs to be some concern heading into New Orleans this week, as this is a player who played at Shepherd University which has an average attendance of less than 5,000 per game. The Superdome is considered one of the more hostile environments in the NFL, so how he will be able to deal with that environment will be intriguing to watch this week. One bright spot last week for the Bears was Cole Kmet who had 10 targets against the Chargers after not seeing a target the week prior against the Raiders. Like most young quarterbacks, simplifying the reads for them is critical, so look for Kmet to continue to have a role in this offense alongside DJ Moore as the Bears try to keep the offense somewhat simple for Bagent for him to get the ball out quickly.

The Saints continue to have a dominant secondary this season. On the year, the team is averaging allowing just 201 passing yards per game, which is 5th-best in the NFL, but they've shut down everyone they've faced as only one quarterback has passed for over 250 yards on the season, which was Jordan Love back in Week 3. Marshon Lattimore and Tyrann Mathieu are the veteran household names in this defense, it has been third-year player Paulson Adebo who has been the best player in this secondary. Adebo has shown tremendous growth after struggling for most of last season. The Saints also should get Marcus Maye back after the veteran safety missed last week with an illness and a hamstring injury. It has been a tumultuous season for Maye who was suspended early on this season, but it has allowed rookie Jordan Howden to show he is more than capable of having an every-down role in the NFL and has likely earned some playing time moving forward for this team. The one question for the Saints remains to be an extremely favorable early season schedule as they've faced Ryan Tannehill, Bryce Young, Jordan Love, Baker Mayfield, Mac Jones, C.J. Stroud, Trevor Lawrence, and Gardner Minshew this year.

Arizona at Cleveland

Starting any rookie against this Cleveland defense is going to be a tough outing for the quarterback, but for Clayton Tune to be making his first start this week as a 5th-round selection. Tune was a gunslinger in college throwing for 4,074 yards in 13 games, but this is another level where the talent gap is going to be sizable. Arizona is 1-6 on the season, and Joshua Dobbs utilized his mobility to make plays happen to the best of his abilities, but defenses quickly caught up to the Cardinals as they have averaged just 14 points per game over the last three weeks. While Tune has some mobility, running a 4.64 40-yard dash at the combine, this is likely going to be a game where they are going to ask him to get the ball out quickly to Trey McBride, who was the bright spot for this Cardinals offense last week. McBride, who was the first tight end, taken in the 2022 draft, took advantage of Zach Ertz going to IR as McBride was targeted 14 times this past week for 95 yards and a touchdown. Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore could also play in the short-to-intermediate passing attack as both are quick receivers who can find space and help Tune in his first start this season.

Cleveland's pass defense is an interesting one. While the overall stats last week do not look like a lock-down defense, this was a team that started poorly due to bad turnovers from P.J. Walker and this offense, but completely shut the Seahawks down once they fell behind 17-0 last week. The Browns did not allow another point, which allowed them to come back and take the lead before Geno Smith had a final drive set up by another P.J. Walker interception. This is a Browns defense that is not a historically great defense like the stats were showing it might be a few weeks ago, but this is still a team that is allowing the fewest passing yards per game. This is a team that is a great litmus test for opposing offenses. Great offenses can expose this defense, but we've seen them completely swallow up average and below passing attacks as they've completely shut down Brock Purdy, Lamar Jackson, Ryan Tannehill, Kenny Pickett, and an injured Joe Burrow in Week 1. While Gardner Minshew was able to throw for 304 yards being the outlier, that was largely set up by multiple missed tackles as Minshew only completed 15 passes in that game. This is a defense that relies heavily on their pass rush with Defensive Player of the Year candidate Myles Garrett, although corners Denzel Ward and Greg Newsome both are former first-round picks that when healthy make up a very strong cornerback unit. While the corners are healthy as of now, they have had multiple games where they have left for extended periods of the game. This is a unit that is not deep and there is a drastic drop off from their starters to their replacements, which is always a concern for a mid-game injury.