The Replacements: Week 5

Matt Waldman's The Replacements: Week 5 Matt Waldman Published 10/05/2023

For a couple of years, the Coronavirus forced sports to adopt unique measures to produce a playing season. While there's still potential for a positive test to sideline a player for at least three weeks, and there's no way of projecting how many positive cases will occur during the NFL season, there are also compelling factors beyond illness that create a demand for this feature: Late-week injuries, suspensions, and coaching decisions with personnel.

We developed this feature to give you resources that will help you weather the potential loss of players.

As the author of the most comprehensive scouting analysis of skill players since 2006, I'm one of those resources—especially for players at the bottom of depth charts, signed to practice squads and training at home with dreams of that phone call from an NFL team.

Each week, I'll walk you through the shortlist of players who will get their shot to contribute as replacements for players falling victim to unexpected late-week events.

I won't be updating this piece over the weekend, but you'll get the goods on players worth consideration, and based on the past three years, this column offered a lot of quality short-term and long-term options — many of them as preemptive picks:

This is a partial list, but you get the point.

We'll examine three types of replacements:

  • Players who get immediate playing time.
  • Preemptive additions from your league's waiver wire.
  • Options worth monitoring in case the established backup eventually misses time.

Many of these players are late-round picks and street-free agents. I'm not giving you obvious waiver candidates that will command a large percentage of your FAAB dollars. These are options you'll often find in your First-Come, First-Serve section during the latter part of the week prior to kickoff.

If you think street-free agents won't be factors, Ty'Son Williams from Week 1 last year is on Line 1 waiting for you to pick up. Craig Reynolds is on Line 2. Boston Scott is waiting patiently on Line 3. They each have a long list of players before them who would like to make an appointment to set you straight. James Robinson would like to tell you about his 2020 campaign. And Raheem Mostert has time on his hands if you need a deeper consultation.

WEEK 4 REVIEW

In the coming weeks, I'll provide brief thoughts and recommendations for the previous week's candidates as we move forward. Since I devoted this year's All-Gut Check Team to Waiver-Wire Sleepers as my unofficial Replacements piece for Week 1, let's use that list as the starting point.

Add Now:

  • Jaleel McLaughlin: Javonte Williams' injury gave McLaughlin significant playing time and earned over 100 yards of offense, looking like the most explosive weapon on the Broncos while doing it. Sean Payton intends to give McLaughlin a recurring role regardless of Williams' health.
  • Tyjae Spears: The Titans running back earned a pivotal passing-down role in the opener at the deafening Superdome and looked great as a pass protector. It may not have led to points, but it's a huge indicator that he can take over this backfield if needed. If Ryan Tannehill were more accurate on a pair of vertical routes, Spears could have had a huge day. He had a good day running the ball last weekend. He's going to earn more playing time to keep Derrick Henry fresh.
  • Calvin Austin III: A favorite of mine, Austin was efficient as a short-range option against the 49ers and has the potential to stretch the field or deliver a breakaway touch on any opportunity. We'll see if he can have a strong rapport with Mitchell Trubisky. Considering that Austin probably earned as many second-team reps as first-team reps this summer, his familiarity with Trubisky could be a good thing for the weeks ahead.
  • Jerome Ford: The Browns will spread the field more, which changes the impact of the ground game in Cleveland, but Ford's receiving skills make him a versatile asset worth starting.
  • Tank Dell: He's the best big-play option on the team and has a rapport with fellow rookie C.J. Stroud. He exploited two bad coverage decisions by the Jaguars in Week 3 that resulted in a majority of his yardage totals and a touchdown.
  • Josh Downs: The box score production hasn't been there, but the snaps and route running have. Remain patient.
  • Kareem Hunt: I recommended him as a preemptive addition last week, and this week, he's rejoining the Browns after Nick Chubb's season-ending injury. He'll likely serve in a similar capacity to Jerome Ford as he did with Chubb.
  • Kadarius Toney: His toe injury is limiting him and it may be time to cut bait, but I'd rather be patient based on the ceiling of his potential.
  • Chuba Hubbard: Miles Sanders is limited at practice again, which could lead to Hubbard at least earning a larger share of touches. He has looked better than Sanders as a decision-maker.
  • Jake Ferguson: The second-year tight end has been a nice preemptive addition because his snaps and targets are strong enough to consider him a low-end starter — just like his fantasy totals the past three weeks.
  • Jayden Reed: Although the volume of catches hasn't been there for Reed, the targets have and so has a chunk gain in or a touchdown in every game. He's a reasonable reserve for your rosters with flex appeal.

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Preemptive Pick:

  • Kendre Miller: With Jamaal Williams out and Alvin Kamara returning on Sunday, Miller is a contributor at best. Tony Jones could remain the more valuable option behind Kamara. If you added Miller, wait another week or two before dropping him if you have the luxury to hang on.
  • Alec Pierce: Continue to stay patient for another 1-2 weeks because the Colts have expanded the offense every week with Anthony Richardson and they connected for a big play against the Rams.
  • Keaontay Ingram: If you have Conner, keep Ingram or consider adding him if you need a back and there aren't other viable options available. I still like his skills and upside. He's dealing with a neck injury, but don't expect Emari Demercado to overtake Ingram permanently.
  • Rico Dowdle: Dowdle has earned a handful of touches each week. He is not the clear-cut No.2 with Deuce Vaughn as part of the equation. Still, if Tony Pollard gets hurt, Dowdle will likely earn the first shot to lead the committee. In Week 3, Vaughn didn't earn touches, whereas Dowdle performed well.
  • Sean Tucker: As I said this summer, the Buccaneers line isn't good, so the starting role for the running back on this team may have minimal fantasy value. Still, I like Tucker's big-play potential a little more as a runner than Rachaad White. I bet in early September we'd see an even split in workload between the two backs by the end of the month. I'm on the losing side of that wage, but give it one more week.

Monitor:

  • Dontayvion Wicks: After multiple weeks with at least 25 snaps and reserve-level production, Wicks earned only one target against Detroit. With Christian Watson back, Wicks is only worth monitoring in case of another injury to the receiving corps.
  • Deuce Vaughn: He earned eight yards on six carries against the Giants. The fact that he earned touches in the past two weeks is good. Monitor him for a volume increase in Week 3.
  • Tyler Conklin: He has a 10-point fantasy week in Week 2 and his targets are enough to consider him if you're desperate, but until Zach Wilson builds on his performance against the Chiefs or the Jets improve their quarterback situation without Wilson, Conklin will rarely be a fantasy factor.
  • Cole Turner: His snap counts, receptions, and yardage have increased every week. He has shown off his catch radius, too.
  • Chris Brooks: He earned clean-up duty in the Dolphins' blowout of Denver and performed well. He made good decisions and even had a 55-yard run.
  • D'Ernest Johnson: The Jaguars increased Johnson's touches in Week 2, but Bigsby retained his role after that.
  • Zach Evans: A non-factor this season, the Rams are sold on Kyren Williams as the lead option. Still, Evans offers the big-play element that the rest of the depth chart lacks. He could earn an opportunity in the coming weeks. If he makes the most of it, he could overtake Williams. It will be playing low-error football, which is difficult for rookies to do, so keep expectations grounded.
  • Demario Douglas: Douglas is still earning snaps, but it's a stretch to say he's consistently getting quality work.
  • Melvin Gordon III: Justice Hill returned to the field, but Gordon still led the way. However, he was sent back to the practice squad after the game.
  • Jalin Hyatt: The Mannings were apoplectic after watching the Giants underutilize Hyatt on Monday night. His time may come sooner than later because the Giants need a vertical element to the offense.
  • Allen Robinson II: After leading the Steelers in receiving against the 49ers, he hasn't sustained that production and an ankle injury has him sidelined from practice this week. We'll see if they switch to Mitchell Trubisky and if it helps.
  • Andy Dalton: The veteran breathed life into the Panthers' offense, but Bryce Young returns to the lineup in Week 5. Monitor this situation closely because it's possible the Panthers revert to Dalton as the starter so Young can have more time to watch and learn.
  • Ronnie Bell: Two weeks ago, Bell scored while Brandon Aiyuk was out. Aiyuk is healthy enough that Bell is simply a young talent to monitor.
  • Leonard Fournette: He's a little more of a niche fit as an injury replacement because he is not a capable zone runner. I think he might be in a situation where he doesn't earn an opportunity until midseason.
  • Jameis Winston: Derek Carr suited up last week, and it was clear his shoulder limited his performance.
  • Dorian Thompson-Robinson: Kevin Stefanski told the media that Deshaun Watson was cleared to play against the Ravens but didn't feel like it and this frustrated the team. We'll see if this situation degenerates. If so, Thompson-Robinson may earn more playing time.
  • Brycen Hopkins: Tyler Higbee is battling through an Achilles injury. He continues to start but monitor him closely. Hopkins can play.
  • Trevor Siemian: Zach Wilson had a solid performance last week, holding off Siemian at least temporarily.
  • Tre-Quan Smith: Currently on the Broncos' practice squad.
  • Donald Parham Jr: May prove worth more consideration if Quentin Johnston or Gerald Everett falter or get hurt.

Forget (For Now)

  • Andrei Iosivas: A long-term developmental project with the potential to develop faster than most but stuck behind two excellent perimeter options. He'll see more snaps on special teams than with the offense.
  • Xavier Hutchinson: I like the talent, but one target for nine yards on seven snaps in a lopsided loss isn't enough to consider him. If the target share grows in Week 2, he could be back on the monitor list.
  • Charlie Kolar: As with Hutchinson, I like the talent, but limited snaps and targets make him a non-factor for fantasy consideration at this time.
  • Rakim Jarrett: I like Jarrett's baseline of skills more than Trey Palmer's, but as long as Palmer doesn't make mistakes, he'll be the option the Buccaneers hope grows into a viable role as the No.3 receiver.
  • Craig Reynolds: David Montgomery returned in a big way for fantasy GMs on Thursday night. Even if Montgomery aggravates his previous injury, Zonovan Knight could play his way ahead of Reynolds.
  • Justyn Ross: The snaps haven't been there. Rashee Rice has been the preferred option between the two young receivers.
  • Kayshon Boutte: He had two opportunities to make a significant impact in the opener, but he couldn't keep his feet inbounds on either perimeter target — including a pass that could have extended the game. His 55 snaps were a good sign, but he hasn't seen action in a game since.
  • Richie James: He's on IR with a knee injury and will miss at least a month.
  • Hunter Renfrow: On the basis of talent, Renfrow has a puncher's chance at a big week if Josh McDaniel gets his head out of his hind parts.
  • Olamide Zaccheaus: Week 3's 58 yards and a score do not appear to be a sign of things to come.
  • Trey Sermon: Although Zack Moss dominated the touches and performed well against the Ravens, the fact that the Colts signed Sermon to the practice squad, elevated him immediately, and cut third-year contributor Deon Jackson to make room should tell you that the Colts value Sermon's skills, but Jonathan Taylor is committed to playing and he is 100 percent healthy. Sermon is likely a player you can forget about, for now.

ADD NOW: Kalif Raymond and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

The Skinny on Raymond: The 29-year-old speedster from Holy Cross has been a special teams stalwart who also earns situational playing time in the offense. He has a career average of 13.8 yards per reception and is nearly delivering 2 yards above that mark this year on 11 targets. Although Marvin Jones Jr has been the more refined route runner and playmaker for the bulk of his career, Raymond has out-targeted and out-touched Jones so far this year.

Recommendation: If Amon-Ra St. Brown can't play this week — and Dan Campbell has said this is a possibility — Raymond offers the most big-play upside at this stage of his and Jones' career. Expect both receivers to split snaps, but count on Raymond as the better fantasy play.

The Skinny on Westbrook-Ikhine: He has proven a reliable red-zone threat as a contributor during the past three years with the Titans. If Treylon Burks can't play this week, Westbrook-Ikhine will likely earn 6-8 targets, giving him a shot at 50-75 yards and a score.

Recommendation: Raymond has a higher yardage upside, but Westbrook-Ikhine's PPR value and rapport with Ryan Tannehill make him a safer option.

PREEMPTIVE: Taylor Heinicke and Ronnie Rivers

The Skinny on Heinicke: The six-year veteran has proven a reliable journeyman starter when called upon. He has a career completion percentage well above 60 percent and has averaged nearly 7 yards per attempt. Heinicke has shown that he can create off-script, which is one of the many advantages Heinicke has over Desmond Ridder.

Falcons' head coach Arthur Smith's career isn't tied to a third-round pick, so if the Falcons continue to struggle, Heinicke could take over. If he does, anticipate boosts in production for Drake London and Kyle Pitts because Heinicke may not have been the more promising prospect in terms of draft capital, but he's straight-up a better quarterback in every aspect of the game.

Recommendation: The whispers about Heinicke replacing Ridder have already begun this week. Heinicke was QB16 during the first 11 games of the 2021 season, which means bye-week production is a reasonable expectation in this offense that has more talent than Ridder has been capable of exploiting.

They Skinny on Rivers: A quick receiving back from Fresno State, Rivers has similarities to Dion Lewis and Jaret Patterson. He understands how to run inside despite being 5-foot-7 and 195 pounds. He lacks top speed, but his acceleration and quickness are NFL-caliber.

Last week, Rivers earned 57 yards on 11 touches, most of it on the ground. It was his first game with meaningful snaps this year.

Recommendation: Kyren Williams has been limited this week, and Rivers is the No.2 option on a Rams offense that has proven skilled in the ground game. Rivers is worth adding this week in case Williams can't go. Although Royce Freeman and Zach Evans have the size coaches covet for every-down runners, Rivers' current spot on the depth chart may be enough for him to earn the lead role. After all, Williams was valued in a similar role as Rivers prior to this year.

MONITOR: Denzel Mims and Tyler Scott

The Skinny on Mims: A skilled pass catcher who can work the boundary routes and in-breaking targets, Mims has an upside similar to what we're seeing from Nico Collins this year. After a promising rookie year in New York, the Jets changed leadership regimes, and Mims was the forgotten man.

Detroit traded for Mims this summer, but Mims injured his knee and the Lions gave the receiver an injury settlement. Now healthy, the Steelers added Mims to its practice squad this week.

Recommendation: Mims is worth monitoring because the Steelers' passing game has struggled, and the team could shake things up, especially if this becomes a lost season.

They Skinny on Scott: A speedster with excellent skill after the catch, Scott offers more as a route runner and pass catcher than Velus Jones Jr Scott's game may actually be a better representation of what the Bears thought they'd get from Jones.

Chicago moved on from Chase Claypool and can use another big-play threat on the field. Scott has earned between 10-14 snaps in every game this year and could be in line for more time and targets.

Recommendation: With Justin Fields playing looser last week and Claypool gone, Scott could earn more playing time just as the Bears offense improves its overall performance. If Scott shows what he did to impress a lot of people in the scouting community, he could emerge as the year progresses.

Good luck!

Photos provided by Imagn Images
Tags:
Sleepers strategy Brandon Aiyuk Calvin Austin III Ronnie Bell Braxton Berrios Kayshon Boutte Chris Brooks Treylon Burks Derek Carr Nick Chubb Chase Claypool Nico Collins Tyler Conklin Andy Dalton Tank Dell Emari Demercado AJ Dillon Demario Douglas Rico Dowdle Josh Downs Zach Evans Gerald Everett Jake Ferguson Justin Fields Jerome Ford Leonard Fournette Royce Freeman Travis Fulgham Russell Gage Melvin Gordon III Taylor Heinicke Derrick Henry Khalil Herbert Tyler Higbee Justice Hill Brycen Hopkins Chuba Hubbard Kareem Hunt Xavier Hutchinson Jalin Hyatt Keaontay Ingram Andrei Iosivas Deon Jackson Richie James Rakim Jarrett D'Ernest Johnson Duke Johnson Jr Quentin Johnston Marvin Jones Jr Velus Jones Jr Alvin Kamara Zonovan Knight Charlie Kolar Drake London Jaleel McLaughlin Davis Mills Kendre Miller Denzel Mims David Montgomery Zack Moss Raheem Mostert Trey Palmer Donald Parham Jr Tim Patrick Jaret Patterson Rashaad Penny Alec Pierce Kyle Pitts Tony Pollard Kalif Raymond Jayden Reed Hunter Renfrow Craig Reynolds Josh Reynolds Rashee Rice Anthony Richardson Desmond Ridder Ronnie Rivers Allen Robinson II James Robinson Justyn Ross Miles Sanders Boston Scott Tyler Scott Trey Sermon Trevor Siemian Geno Smith Tyjae Spears Amon-Ra St. Brown C.J. Stroud Ryan Tannehill Jonathan Taylor Dorian Thompson-Robinson Kadarius Toney Robert Tonyan Jr Sean Tucker Cole Turner Deuce Vaughn Christian Watson Deshaun Watson Nick Westbrook-Ikhine Rachaad White Dontayvion Wicks Jamaal Williams Javonte Williams Kyren Williams Ty'Son Williams Zach Wilson Jameis Winston Bryce Young Olamide Zaccheaus
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