A lot has happened in the last three days. Too much to process in one or even two reviews of the news. When it comes to what we care most about, who were the 10 biggest winners and losers in fantasy football since free agency opened?
Note: All ADP data is from Underdog
10 Biggest Winners
1. The Falcons Pass Offense (WR Drake London, RB Bijan Robinson, TE Kyle Pitts, WR Darnell Mooney)
We're about to find out just how much the Falcons' offensive design and quarterback play was holding back the value of the offense. It will be hard for Bijan Robinson to move up much from his optimistic ADP of around the 7th/8th pick in early drafts, but Drake London (ADP: 34), Kyle Pitts (ADP: 81), and Mooney (ADP: 214) will get more expensive after Kirk Cousins was signed in Atlanta.
2. Saquon Barkley (RB-PHI)
Forget about the tush push vulturing scores and Jalen Hurts not throwing to the running backs. Barkley is going to get to run behind one of the best offensive lines in the league, and the Eagles paid him a cornerstone of the offense salary. It's not crazy to take him as the RB2 over Robinson and Breece Hall, and he should move up significantly from his pre-free agency ADP of 23.
3. Derrick Henry (RB-BAL)
Has there been a better marriage of player, team, and uniform aesthetics than Henry? Skepticism about his future had his pre-free agency ADP at 61. He belongs in the 30s, or maybe 20s.
4. Zack Moss (RB-CIN)
Fantasy players didn't think Moss' early season performance and continuing efficiency after Jonathan Taylor returned from the PUP list would turn into lasting value, but they were wrong. 2023 fifth-round pick Chase Brown will still be a big-play threat with a growing role, but Moss will be the lead back and crush his pre-free agency ADP of 164. He should be closer to the 70s or 80s.
5. Josh Jacobs (RB-GB)
Jacobs should be the clear lead back for the Packers for at least this year, with Emanuel Wilson backing him up. Even before the Packers announced that they were releasing Aaron Jones, Jacobs' pre-free agency ADP of 59 was going to move earlier in drafts. With Jones gone, Jacobs should be back in the third round, where he was going into the 2023 season.
6. Gus Edwards (RB-LAC)
If you want to know what Jim Harbaugh will prioritize on offense, note that the first signing in the Harbaugh era was a battering ram of a running back. He'll get as much work as he can handle after having surprising value in the wake of the J.K. Dobbins injury last year. His pre-free agency ADP of 188 will be left in the dust as he should be in the top 120, if not the top 100, in his new home.
7. Joe Mixon (RB-HOU)
The Texans decided to throw the Bengals a late-round pick for Mixon and pay him around $5 million instead of signing a free agent back from what was left after the opening of free agency. The offense is good, and Mixon should be well ahead of Dameon Pierce in the workload split. Amazingly, his ADP is going down from its pre-free agency level of 88, which doesn't make sense unless fantasy drafters really thought Mixon was going to start for Cincinnati when they selected him in early drafts.
8. George Pickens (WR-PIT)
Yes, the quarterback Pickens came alive with - Mason Rudolph - is in Tennessee now, and he'll likely be catching passes from Russell Wilson in a run-first offense. The more important development is Diontae Johnson getting traded to the Panthers, making Pickens the unquestioned #1 target. He should move up at least a round or two from his pre-free agency ADP of 63. Johnson's ADP has also been going up from its pre-free agency level of 98.
9. Devin Singletary (RB-NYG)
It's clear that Singletary will be the lead back for the Giants. It's not clear why his ADP hasn't gone up from its pre-free agency data point of 131.
10. Zamir White (RB-LV)
The Raiders re-signed one of their running backs in free agency, but it wasn't Josh Jacobs. White should get to resume the workhorse role he produced well in down the stretch while Jacobs was out late last season. His pre-free agency ADP of 128 should move up at least 20 spots.
10 Biggest Fantasy Football Losers
1. The Minnesota pass offense (WR Justin Jefferson, WR Jordan Addison, TE T.J. Hockenson)
The passing game numbers without Kirk Cousins last year might look promising, and Hockenson might not be ready to start the season, which could concentrate targets early on, but there's no rational way to interpret the move from Kirk Cousins to Sam Darnold as a positive, and it could be disastrous. All three of Jefferson (ADP: 4), Addison (ADP: 57), and Hockenson (ADP: 110) are trending down since free agency.
2. Austin Ekeler (RB-WAS)
How the mighty have fallen! Ekeler, who was in the top five of some drafts last year, will be lucky to be in the top 100 of 2024 drafts. His pre-free agency ADP of 82 hasn't fallen much yet, but it should as the 1A with Brian Robinson Jr (whose ADP of 91 actually went up a little since free agency). Robinson is probably a better pick than Ekeler, but avoiding the situation altogether is the best strategy.
3. Justin Fields (QB-CHI)
It's looking more and more like Fields won't have a starting job to open the 2024 season. An injury to a starter could change that, but his pre-free agency ADP of 85 has already fallen to 93 and probably should be well outside of the top 120 soon.
4. Justin Herbert (QB-LAC)
We already knew that the Chargers were going to go more run-heavy and might not make it to the league new year with both of their top two receivers. Herbert isn't going to be the focal point of the offense, and he might not get a rookie receiver in the first round, either. There's no reason to take him near his pre-free agency ADP of 91.
5. Elijah Moore (WR-CLE)
The Jerry Jeudy trade seems to signal that the Browns don't believe Moore is the answer to boosting their pass offense. He was already an afterthought at 176. It's hard to say if he'll be a thought at all in drafts going forward.
6. Trevor Lawrence (QB-JAX)
Going from Calvin Ridley to Gabe Davis isn't an upgrade, and it especially stings when we know that the Jaguars were in on Ridley until the final negotiations. Lawrence's pre-free agency ADP of 111 wasn't as bad as Herbert's, but it's still not very attractive unless it falls at least a round or two.
7. Tyjae Spears (RB-TEN)
Spears was never going to be a 300+ touch back, but with Derrick Henry headed out of Nashville, he was set to be a lead back. Now the Titans paid Tony Pollard starter money right out of the gate in free agency. Spears could still be the more valuable back on merit/performance, but it looks like a 50/50 committee at best for him and in what should be a bottom half of the league offense. His ADP is already falling precipitously from his pre-free agency spot of 68; we'll see if it falls past Pollard's current ADP of 79.
8. Calvin Ridley (WR-TEN), DeAndre Hopkins (WR-TEN)
Ridley to the Titans was the most shocking move of free agency, and it won't help either of them unless we are all underestimating Will Levis. Ridley's ADP is at 56 and Hopkins at 70. It's arguable that neither belongs earlier than the 80s.
9. Roschon Johnson (RB-CHI), Khalil Herbert (RB-CHI)
Not many had the Bears signing D'Andre Swift at starter-level money as the first move of free agency, but that was indeed the move that was announced first and obviously in the works for a while. Johnson was at 127 and Herbert 144 before free agency. Both are nothing but late-round, last-bench-spot fillers at best now.
10. Cole Kmet (TE-CHI)
Gerald Everett was paid enough to assume that he'll be on the field a lot as a move tight end, and Everett has experience with new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron when they were both back in Seattle. Kmet's main value was his red-zone chemistry with Justin Fields, who is highly unlikely to be the Bears' Week 1 starter. Kmet's ADP was 119 before free agency; it's hard to consider him in the first 150 or even 180 picks now.
