Slate Overview
Week 1 is Awesome
Welcome to Week 1 of the NFL season, where the only certainty is uncertainty. With so much still unknown, some analysts will tell you to play it safe. You will not find that advice here. While responsible bankroll management should always be a foundation of your approach, Week 1 is overflowing with opportunity if you are willing to embrace volatility and lean into your strongest convictions. In fact, this is the single best week to play NFL DFS all year for several reasons:
- Increased participation - The fantasy football community has been waiting nine long months for action. There will be more casual money in Week 1 prize pools than in any other week, softening the contests and making your sharper entries more profitable.
- Uncertainty creates edges - Week 1 salaries and ownership projections are still anchored to last year's roles and stats, not what teams will look like when they take the field. You pay for a Footballguys subscription for projections that read between the lines of training camp news, preseason usage, coaching tendencies, and matchup data. That insight provides the biggest edge now, before the market and your opponents correct in later weeks.
- Ownership overconfidence - The field will lean too heavily on last year's stats and this year's (flimsy) preseason narratives, creating false certainty. It is never easier to leverage your opponents' mistakes against them than it is in Week 1.
- Game theory leverage is highest - With so many unknowns, there are more opportunities to build lineups that are both high ceiling and contrarian.
- Prize pools are huge - DraftKings typically pushes its biggest guarantees of the year for Week 1. This year, there are two contests this week with $1 million first-place prizes, and more GPPs of all sizes and price points than they will offer later in the year.
Bottom line: Week 1 combines the softest competition, the most mispriced players, inflated chalk, and the biggest prize pools. After Week 1, pricing, ownership, and projections get sharper, and your edge diminishes.
Top Game Environments
DFS is less about picking players in isolation and more about targeting the games where fantasy scoring can snowball. High totals, fast pace, and exploitable defenses all create environments where multiple players can go off together. Identifying those spots is the foundation for building winning GPP lineups.
Games in bold indicate low projected ownership despite favorable scoring conditions.
- Bengals (-5.5) @ Browns - O/U 47.5
- Buccaneers (-2.5) @ Falcons - O/U 46.5
- Dolphins @ Colts (-1.5) - O/U 46.5
- Panthers @ Jaguars (-3) - O/U 47.5
- Lions @ Packers (-2.5) - O/U 46.5
Identifying Common Roster Construction
Understanding what your opponents are most likely to do is just as important as spotting the best plays. Common roster builds form naturally when popular players are combined into a lineup. Recognizing the "chalky" construction helps us anticipate what the majority of rosters we're up against will look like, and allows us to decide the best ways to build differently for leverage without sacrificing ceiling.
QB: A portion of the field will pay up for Jayden Daniels ($7,000) or Joe Burrow ($6,900), but Trevor Lawrence jumps off the page at $5,300. Remember how preseason narratives and last year's stats inflate Week 1 ownership? Lawrence and the Jaguars are being hyped as breakout candidates thanks to new head coach Liam Coen's successful stint as Tampa Bay's offensive coordinator and the addition of Travis Hunter alongside Brian Thomas Jr.. On the other side, the Panthers defense allowed a league-high 31.4 points per game last season.
RB: Lawrence is cheap, and numerous wide receivers appear badly mispriced, which should lead to heavy spending at running back. Christian McCaffrey ($7,300) is probably the most common RB1, though a late-week calf injury might scare some people off. Judging by the way Chase Brown ($6,600) was frequently selected ahead of stalwart running backs like Jonathan Taylor in season-long leagues, it's safe to say his modest salary, combined with the general popularity of Bengals players, will make him a popular RB2. De'Von Achane ($6,900) projects as the most common third option in lineups that use a running back in the flex.
WR: Brian Thomas Jr. ($6,800) is the obvious stacking partner for Lawrence lineups. After Thomas, the crowd won't be able to lay off this year's top rookies, who are all priced below expectation. Tetairoa McMillan ($5,200) was projected as a target hog BEFORE Adam Thielen was traded and Jalen Coker went on IR inside of the last week. Emeka Egbuka ($4,600) is priced as if Chris Godwin (ankle) and Jalen McMillan (neck) will be active. Drake London ($6,500) and Malik Nabers ($7,000) will factor into common builds that use a fourth wide receiver in the flex instead of a third running back.
TE: Entrants who want to spend up to Brock Bowers ($6,500), Trey McBride ($6,200), or George Kittle ($5,800) can find a way to do so easily enough, but David Njoku ($4,700) fits the common build most neatly. His matchup against Cincinnati is a strong one, and his small-sample stats with Joe Flacco at quarterback rival the more expensive plays.
Core Targets
Quarterback
Joe Burrow ($6,900) - If you are only making one GPP lineup this week, consider starting it with Burrow. You will not sneak him past anyone, but if the goal is maximum upside, it makes sense to begin with an all-world quarterback on the team implied to score the most points on the slate (26.5). A Burrow ceiling game will not happen without a big performance from Ja'Marr Chase ($8,100). Just make sure you build the rest of your lineup with the knowledge that Chase will appear in most of your opponents' Burrow lineups. One way to differentiate is by adding Chase Brown to the stack. When a quarterback has a blow-up game, his running back often comes along for the ride. Between Burrow, Chase, and Brown, you could capture all of Cincinnati's touchdowns, and Brown's 54 receptions and four receiving scores in 2024 make him a stronger correlation play than the field realizes.