In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll fade some players that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at eight players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In) and four that don't hit quite right (the Out).
But first, let me stress: If any of my choices make you uneasy, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In and Out Accountability
This is where we review my previous week's results. Make no mistake: The first three weeks were tough. Week 1 was horrible; Week 2 wasn't the worst, but Week 3 was another embarrassment. The good news? I followed up a strong Week 4 showing by matching it in Week 5. What happened in Week 6? Let's review:
- I was in on Broncos QB Bo Nix going up against the Jets in London. I acknowledged this was an effort to catch a boom week on a boom/bust player. Nix didn't just finish the week outside QB1 territory (as I predicted he would), his QB21 finish made him a backend QB2. A miss. ❌
- I was out on Jets QB Justin Fields in that same game. Fields was projected to finish as QB14. I said he would fall short of that. Fields obliged, delivering a QB30 finish with 4.9 points, which was actually better than his NFL outcome. A hit. ✅
- I was in on Browns RB Quinshon Judkins going up against the Steelers. I felt volume and high-value opportunities would be enough to propel the rookie past his RB14 projection. Do I wish I had waited until this week with Judkins facing the Dolphins, one of the most generous defenses in the league? Nah. Chase Brown ran through the Steelers like a hot knife through butter Thursday night. This was more about a game script that resulted in Judkins finishing as RB52 while playing the same number of snaps as Jerome Ford. A soul-crushing miss. ❌
- I was out on Bengals RB Chase Brown, yes, the one who dominated the Steelers on Thursday this week, against Green Bay. I expected the Packers to put a lid on Brown and force Joe Flacco to beat them. That's precisely what happened, as Brown, whom I predicted would finish outside RB2 territory, saw his second-lowest RB rush share of the season (60 percent) and a season-low 5.0 percent target share. Brown finished the week as RB33. An easy hit. ✅
- I was in on Titans WR Calvin Ridley, coming off a breakout game against Arizona in Week 5, facing a favorable matchup in Las Vegas. Despite keeping it fairly conservative with a WR2 finish, Ridley only played six snaps before being sidelined by a hamstring injury. He finished as WR87 with 2.8 points. A miss. ❌
- I was out on Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle, who had a tough matchup against the Chargers. After discussing the importance of volume throughout last week's column, I openly acknowledged I was ignoring Waddle's Week 5 workload in predicting he would fall short of his WR17 projection. The matchup won out this time as Waddle, even though he benefited from a team-high eight targets, finished the week as WR18. A hit. ✅
- I was in on 49ers TE Jake Tonges going up against Tampa Bay. With George Kittle out again in this one, Tonges, who was TE8 in Week 5, seemed like a reasonable bet to outperform his TE14 projection. Even though he didn't get the touchdown I tried to wishcast into my analysis, Tonges finished as TE13. Another hit. ✅
- I was out on Saints TE Juwan Johnson, who's seen a diminishing workload, going up against the Patriots. My worry was the decrease in targets we saw the previous two weeks. It continued this week. While Johnson boasts a 17.4 percent target share on the season, it's fallen to 9.3 percent over the last three games. It was 7 percent on Sunday, and Johnson finished the week as TE40. My prediction was he'd fall short of his TE12 projection. This was a hit. ✅
- As for my Outlier of the Week, I expected Broncos TE Evan Engram to cash in on his Joker role against the Jets. The joke was on me. He was projected to finish as TE16. Nix's poor showing didn't help as Engram finished as TE19. A miss. ❌
Of course, I have nobody to blame but myself -- and maybe Nix, perhaps Ford, and almost certainly Ridley's tender hamstring -- for keeping me from the ever-elusive sweep.
Here's where we stand after five weeks:
Week 6: 5 hits; 4 misses.
Season: 26 hits; 28 misses.
The goal here, whether it's realistic or not, is to hit .500 on my predictions. I gained ground once again this week and currently sit at .481. Let's see if we keep climbing in Week 7.
But first, repeat after me: I'm taking chances and painting outside the lines here. If that's not for you, please refer to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
Quarterback
In: Jordan Love, Green Bay @ Arizona
Generally speaking, I'm not a Love lover. But there are times I like him more than others.
As NFL Network's Michael F. Florio put it, "Love is a safe-floor option most weeks, but he has a high ceiling every so often.
"This could be one of those smash spots."
Love has completed 68 of 94 passes for 779 yards, throwing for five touchdowns with two interceptions, and has run for 72 yards on 14 carries during his past three games. He's averaged 21.6 points per game over that span, fifth-highest among all QBs.
In Week 4 against the Cowboys, he delivered a season-high 28.3 fantasy points after hitting 31-of-43 passes for 337 yards, with three TDs. He also carried the ball three times for 28 yards.
Last week, Love shook off an early interception to play another good game against Cincinnati. The beneficiary of his starting offensive line playing a full game for the first time all season, Love had a passer rating over 100 for the fourth time in five starts.
More importantly, he made big plays to help the team win the game, going 3 for 3 for 90 yards on deep passes (20-plus yards).
With Matthew Golden starting to hit stride -- and Christian Watson possibly returning as soon as this week, Love has increasing firepower to go with Romeo Doubs and Tucker Kraft.
This week, he faces a Cardinals defense that has allowed the fifth-most passing yards this season. Better still, they generate pressure at a below-average rate. Meanwhile, Love leads the NFL in Expected Points Added (EPA) from a clean pocket. Eight of his nine TD passes have come without pressure.
Bottom line: Love's Footballguys projection calls for a QB11 finish (with 17.84 points). I believe the deep ball will serve him well this week, and Love will finish inside the top 10 at the position.
Out: Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia @ Minnesota
I'm not looking to make this column a profile in courage, but bold, often contrarian stances are the objective here.
To be clear, however, saying I'm out on this year's QB3 overall, a player scoring an average of 21.1 points per game, does not mean I wouldn't happily play him in a season-long league.
But expecting Hurts to hit his projections is a different ballgame.
The Eagles are going up against a Minnesota defense that's afforded opposing quarterbacks the seventh-fewest yards per passing attempt (0.37), and since Hurts generates a decent chunk of his fantasy production via the tush push (19 percent of his points since the beginning of 2023 have come on runs from the 1-yard line), be forewarned that the Vikings have allowed touchdowns on only 31 percent of rushing attempts within three yards of the goal line, the third-best rate in the league.
But the key for the Vikings is slowing down Saquon Barkley, something that's been far less challenging this year than last.
As SI.com's Will Ragatz explained, if Minnesota can limit Barkley and force Hurts into clear passing situations, their defense could be primed for success.
Hurts is undoubtedly capable of making high-level throws, but since the start of last season, PFF has charted him with 29 big-time throws and 23 turnover-worthy plays. He threw a crucial interception last week against the Giants, his first of the season, and he's struggled to get on the same page with No. 1 receiver A.J. Brown this year.
Hurts holds onto the ball (averaging 3.12 seconds to throw, fourth-highest in the league) and thus will take sacks (18 of them, tied for third-most). The Vikings need to slow down Barkley and make Hurts throw the ball, because that's where Brian Flores' aggressive defense can come up with sacks and potential takeaways.
Bottom line: Hurts' Footballguys projection stipulates a QB5 finish with 20.26 points. I think the Vikings can contain him and keep Hurts from meeting that objective. He'll fall outside the top five.