In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll fade some players that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at nine players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In), four that don't hit quite right (the Out), and an Outlier of the Week.
First, let me stress: If any of my choices make you uneasy, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In and Out Accountability
This is where we review my previous week's results. The first three weeks were rough, while Week 4 and Week 5 were solid. It's been hit and miss since. Week 9 wasn’t too bad. Week 10? Not so much:
- I was in on Seattle QB Sam Darnold, coming off a big game in Washington. The matchup against the Cardinals didn't seem daunting. Turns out it wasn't. In a game where Seattle led by double digits for nearly 55 game minutes, the Seahawks offense called a run on 78 percent of their plays against the Cardinals. Not a great day for Darnold, who threw just 12 passes, to hit his ceiling. I predicted he would finish in QB1 territory. He was QB23. A miss. ❌
- I was out on Chargers QB Justin Herbert going up against a generous Steeler pass defense, but doing so with an injury-ravaged offensive line. I felt a strong pass rush would take the top of Herbert's game. It did that and more. Projected as QB3, I said Herbert would fall outside the top five. Five sacks later, he was QB15. A hit. ✅
- I was in on Browns RB Quinshon Judkins against the Jets, who had just traded away two of their top defensive players. The thought was that a positive game script would mean a ton of very productive work for Judkins. The rookie got a ton of work (22 carries), but the output was rather mundane. I predicted he would outperform his RB14 projection to finish in RB1 territory. He did neither, instead winding up as RB26. A miss. ❌
- I was out on Jaguars RB Travis Etienne Jr. in a tough matchup against the Texans, who have held Christian McCaffrey and Derrick Henry to single digits. Etienne was projected as the RB16 with 13.81 points. I predicted he would fall outside the top 20. He was RB13. A big miss. ❌
- I was in on Giants WR Wan'Dale Robinson, who was projected to finish as WR19 despite his ongoing heavy workload and a super-favorable matchup against the Bears. Robinson got the opportunities (with a team-high 11 targets), but he didn't do much with them. I predicted a top 15 finish. Robinson was WR29. Another miss. ❌
- I was out on Saints WR Chris Olave, who was projected to finish as WR11 in a matchup with a stingy Carolina defense and a QB, Tyler Shough, who remains a work in progress. Two things: Shough made a lot of progress in practice last week, and we'll now call them the "previously-stingy" Panthers. I said Olave would struggle to finish in WR2 territory. Instead, he went over 100 receiving yards with a touchdown to finish as WR5. A painful miss. ❌
- I was in on Bills TE Dalton Kincaid, who went into a favorable matchup against the Dolphins on a serious roll. He was projected to finish as TE9. I predicted he would exceed that projection. A hamstring injury kept him from making good on my outlook. Kincaid, who left the game in the third quarter, never had a chance. He finished as TE25. An injury-related miss. ❌
- I was out on Colts TE Tyler Warren, who faced a very tough matchup against the Falcons in Berlin. I predicted Warren would fall short of his TE4 projection (with 12.72 fantasy points) against an Atlanta defense that had allowed fewer than six points per game to the position until Sunday. That's when they gave up 17.9 points to Warren. Fortunately, that was only good for a TE5 finish. Close? You bet. Also a hit. ✅
- As for my Outlier of the Week, Jaguars receiver Parker Washington was set up for success against the Texans with Brian Thomas Jr. (ankle) out and Travis Hunter (knee) on IR. Volume and a nose for the end zone continued to drive his numbers. Washington was projected to finish as WR36. I predicted he would exceed that number. He finished as WR31. A hit. ✅
Another week that won't go down as one of my best. As always, I have nobody to blame but myself -- and maybe some unexpected and topsy-turvy game scripts, a tender hamstring, and a suddenly competent Shough -- for keeping me from having my best week of the season.
Here's where we stand after 10 weeks:
Week 10: 3 hits; 6 misses.
Season: 41 hits; 49 misses.
The goal here, whether it's realistic or not, is to hit .500 on my predictions. After falling back a bit this week, I'm batting .455. Let's see if we get back on an upward trajectory in Week 11.
As always, remember: I'm taking chances and painting outside the lines here. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
Quarterback
In: Jordan Love, Green Bay @ NY Giants
I'm old enough to remember when Jordan Love was really good. No, not the eight-game stretch to finish the 2023 season when he threw 18 touchdowns and just one interception while ranking as QB2 and outproducing Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.
No, I'm talking about his eight-game stretch to open this season, when he tossed 13 touchdowns with just two interceptions, while completing 70.9 percent of his attempts. It wasn't quite as high-end as 2023 -- Love was QB11 over the first eight weeks this year -- but he has that ability.
That said, things haven't been going as well for Love and the Packers' passing attack since Tucker Kraft went down with a season-ending knee injury in Week 9.
Love has been QB24 over the last two weeks.
But, as I look back at the first eight weeks this year, it's worth noting he was at his best in favorable matchups.
In Week 4, Love finished as the QB2 in a wild 40-40 tie in Dallas after throwing for 337 yards and three touchdowns against a generous Cowboys defense. Against the Steelers in Week 8, Love completed a career-best 20-straight passes on the way to going 29-for-37 for 360 yards and three touchdowns for another QB2 finish.
He became the first Packers quarterback with 350 yards passing, three touchdowns, and no interceptions in a game since Aaron Rodgers in 2021 at the Vikings.
Love got plenty of help from Kraft and the return of Christian Watson, who had four catches for 85 yards in his first game since tearing an ACL in last season's regular-season finale.
Kraft is gone, but the Giants are a favorable matchup.
Over the last four weeks, their defense has allowed an average of 26 fantasy points per game to the position, the second-most in the league. The Giants struggle to defend the deep ball, and, as NFL.com's Michael F. Florio points out, they generate pressure and sacks at below-average rates. In all, the Giants have allowed six different quarterbacks to finish with 20-plus points.
One concern? There are games when Josh Jacobs can take over and limit Love's output (see the Packers win in another favorable matchup, in Week 6, against the Bengals).
Bottom line: Love's Footballguys projection calls for a QB20 finish with 16.75. I expect him to fare better given the matchup. I'll say Love easily exceeds his projection.
Out: Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay @ Buffalo
As Fansided's Joe Soriano noted this week, Mayfield has played some of the best football of his career this season. He's accurate. He's no longer mistake-prone. He's cut out the recklessness. He's throwing touchdowns to sixth-string receivers. He's clutch, with four game-winning drives under his belt at the halfway point of the season.
Fair points all.
However, ESPN.com's Tristan Cockroft contends that Mayfield has slipped into a pattern of inconsistency in recent weeks, perhaps held back by the Buccaneers' injuries at wideout, at running back, and along the offensive line.
Even last week, when he finished as QB10, more than half of Mayfield's 22.92 points came with his team trailing by 10-plus points on the scoreboard.
Despite some high-end finishes -- like last week's -- Mayfield sits at QB13 heading into Week 11, averaging 18.2 points per game.
That's because of the aforementioned inconsistency. Last week was great, but the two weeks before that, Mayfield was QB22 with 11.1 points against the Lions, and he delivered single-digit fantasy production (6.1 points) against the Saints in Week 8.
This week, the Buccaneers go up against a Buffalo defense that hasn't allowed more than 14.6 points to any individual quarterback since Week 1. On the season, the Bills have allowed the third-fewest points, 13.5 per game, to opposing QBs.
Along the way, as Sports Illustrated's Michael Fabiano notes, Buffalo has held Drake Maye and Patrick Mahomes II to fewer than 12.5 fantasy points in games at Orchard Park.
Bottom line: Mayfield's Footballguys projection reflects the matchup. He's projected to finish as QB14 with 17.89 points. Not unreasonable, but I think it will be a struggle for Mayfield to hit that. I say he falls short of QB14.