The Top 10: Week 10

Featuring fantasy-oriented insights rooted in film-driven football analysis to help GMs manage their fantasy squads.

Matt Waldman's The Top 10: Week 10 Matt Waldman Published 11/04/2025

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MISSION

The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between the fantasy and reality of football analysis.

The goal of this feature is to provide you with actionable recommendations that will help you get results. The fundamental mission is to get the process right.

While it's a rush to see the box score or highlights and claim you made the right calls, doing so without a sustainable process makes success ephemeral.

The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).

My specialty is film analysis. I've been scouting the techniques, concepts, and physical skills of offensive skill talent as my business for nearly 20 years.

The Top 10 will give you fantasy-oriented insights rooted in football analysis that have made the Rookie Scouting Portfolio one of the two most purchased independent draft guides among NFL scouts. This is what Atlanta Falcons Area Scout and former SEC recruiter Alex Brown has told me over the past 8-10 years.

Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece, available every Monday night during the season, is a viable source of information to kick-start your week as a fantasy GM. 

The theme this week...Details aren't nitpicking, but the difference between the players considered the best in the world. 

STRAIGHT, NO CHASER: WEEK 9'S CLIFF'S NOTES

  1. The Bengals' defense is bad, but Kyle Monangai topped all RBs who've faced them. Can he top D'Andre Swift on the depth chart? Don't count on it yet.  
  2. The Steelers shut down Daniel Jones and the Colts' offense with a solid blueprint, so watch in the coming weeks to see if other teams have the ability to replicate it before abandoning Jones.
  3. The Steelers specifically shut down Tyler Warren. Other teams should be able to do the same, but they haven't. Keep an eye on this situation moving forward. 
  4. Colston Loveland is a better tight end prospect than Warren, but it will take injury and a decline of the Colts offense -- which is worth monitoring -- for us to see Loveland top Warren in the second half of 2025.
  5. Jameson Williams finally had a big outing, and if OC John Morton is right, it's just the beginning. 
  6. Tory Horton had a big night in Washington, but he's not replacing a healthy Cooper Kupp this year. 
  7. Parker Washington didn't fit Liam Coen's idea of a WR in his offense this spring. He does (for) now.
  8. If Zach Robinson allows Michael Penix Jr. to continue playing his game with Drake London (and Kyle Pitts Sr.) as they did in New England, Penix will finish as a QB1 and London and Pitts as top-five at their positions.
  9. J.J. McCarthy had an uneven performance against the Lions, but there's no reason for panic, long-term.
  10. Brock Bowers is a cornerstone player in every format, and I'm going to show you why. 

1. Kyle Monangai Delivered Huge in Cincinnati

Who hasn't? What you might not realize is that Monangai had the best production of any running back who faced the Bengals this year, including Travis Etienne Jr., Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Breece Hall, Josh Jacobs, and Jaylen Warren. 

Monangai showcased his contact balance, power, decision-making smarts, cutback ability, open-field creativity, and game stamina in a 31-touch, 198-yard performance. 

Great week, but will he take D'Andre Swift's job? Not likely -- not yet.

Head coaches rarely demote players due to injury. A good example is Dave Canales giving Chuba Hubbard two weeks of playing time alongside Rico Dowdle after Hubbard returned to health. Once it became clear that Dowdle was outperforming Hubbard side by side, Canales demoted Hubbard. 

If Ben Johnson's recent history as a coordinator has an influence, the best Monangai can hope for is an even committee split with Swift. Monangai is the David Montgomery to Swift's Jahmyr Gibbs. 

Monangai is an excellent power complement to Swift's prowess in space. Both can catch the ball so like the  Montgomery-Gibbs tandem, the offensive personnel at running back won't tip off the game plan to the defense. 

The one opportunity Monangai has to overtake Swift is if Swift continues abandoning play designs at inopportune times. Although Swift has improved under the tutelage of RB Coach Eric Bienemy, there are still decision-making errors as recently as Week 8.

If these errors continue at a rate that frustrates the staff, and Monangai continues demonstrating the skill and stamina he showed against Cincinnati, it could convince the staff that Monangai should be the featured option this year. 

Don't overspend on Monangai as a potential league-winner. He's capable of delivering RB1 production while Swift is out, based on volume, but at best, Monangai will earn a split with Swift and give you fantasy RB2-RB3 value with a low floor if game scripts deviate from the run. 

If you have Monangai, it's easier to hold him with the hope that those low odds of him becoming the featured back hit. If they do, congratulations.

2. The Steelers Shut Down Daniel Jones: Can It Be Replicated?

Two weeks ago, I wrote about Daniel Jones, Tyler Warren, and the Colts offense. Why they were off to a hot start and would it last? 

Let's begin with the hot start. 

The short answer for why the Colts started strong was an excellent power running game with strong play-action concepts built around it that placed Jones in position to have clear decisions. J.J. Watt broached the idea that critics and coaches around the league were underrating Jones when discussing the Colts' hot start.

The crux of that argument on Sunday was the difficult throws Jones made Sunday and all year. There has never been any question that Jones is a good thrower of the ball and is willing to stand in the pocket. 

Jones has always been capable of completing difficult passes when the decision to target a receiver is clear in his mind.  It's that clarity and/or accuracy of the decision that has been the underlying issue with his game.  

The Colts' strong ground game has enabled the staff to call a high number of first-down play-action plays with league-leading success, as opponents must respect Jonathan Taylor and the Indianapolis offensive line.  At least until Indianapolis faces teams that take away the run and render first-down play-action useless. 

This is what happened in Pittsburgh. As we saw against Quinshon Judkins and the Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh played gap-sound defense and rallied to the ball carrier. Guess what happened against Taylor? 

After the Steelers shut down the run early, they pressured Dillon Gabriel without any regard for play-action, often meeting Gabriel at the top of long drops off the action. Guess what happened with Taylor and Jones? 

Sacks. First, a strip-sack at the top of a one-step drop with play-action, and then a sack at the top of a five-step drop.

In addition to the sacks, tipped passes. Daniel Jones had four deflected passes in this game. When the Steelers don't have to respect the play-action game, they can get an early push into the pocket. if they didn't reach Jones, they were close enough to get their hands up and change the game that way.  

When the pressure, the hits, and the deflections become frequent, it's going to lead to decision-making gaffes from the quarterback. Daniel Jones illustrates...

Jones had three interceptions and gave up two fumbles to the Steelers. He had some good throws -- difficult throws to J.J. Watt's point -- but they weren't delivered in conceptually cloudy circumstances. 

The Steelers' defense shut down the ground game, limited the easy chunk gains off play-action, and forced Daniel Jones to carry this team on second and third reads before the pressure got to him. He couldn't, and they lost. 

No shame in that for Jones. Many starting quarterbacks would struggle in this scenario, but the question is whether other defenses can replicate the Steelers' defensive blueprint for success. 

Atlanta, Kansas City, and Seattle have a realistic shot of doing so. Houston and San Francisco (if healthy enough along its defensive line) have a chance, but the odds are lower. That is six of the remaining seven "fantasy" games for the Colts, so there is a legitimate chance for Jones to experience a fantasy decline. 

My advice: See if Atlanta can have similar success against the Colts. If they do in overwhelming fashion, begin looking for a substitute for Jones. If the Colts rebound big against Atlanta, then consider the Chiefs and Seahawks bad matchups where there's no shame in replacing Jones with a backup who has given you reliable starter value or has a good matchup.  

3. The Steelers Shut Down Tyler Warren. Can It Be Replicated? 

As I mentioned twice this year -- most recently, two weeks ago -- a majority of Warren's production has been coming off well-schemed plays that lead Warren into open space for chunk plays. This isn't a slight to Warren's ability -- J.J. Watt told the viewing audience yesterday that the first thing he asked Warren was how it felt to catch the football and wonder where all the defenders were. 

If Watt is noticing the same thing I am, I think we're on the right track here, especially since the Steelers noticed it and took action, which I have been expecting.

They prioritized Warren as a receiver, didn't bite on play-action, anticipated delayed releases from the line, and didn't give him room to move at the catch point. 

When a defense eliminates early-down passes off play-action that have resulted in chunk plays, it makes the offense work harder -- especially an offense coasting off these chunk gains because they've set up a play-calling advantage to build on throughout the game. 

I don't want Warren to fail. I do want opponents to challenge the Colts and not give up big gains because they make fixable mistakes over and over throughout the first eight weeks of the season. 

I'm somewhat amazed it took until Week 9 for opposing defenses to prioritize Warren, but as I wrote all summer and early into the fall, it takes 6-8 weeks for opposing defenses to apply scouting reports to the game plan. 

Here we are. Will we see more teams do this against Warren? Follow the same advice I gave about Daniel Jones at the end of that segment. 

4. Colston Loveland Is Better than Tyler Warren. Will It Matter? 

I'd take Loveland 10 times out of 10 ahead of Warren in real football. Warren is a good zone receiver who can win contested catches, and he's a bully when running downhill in open space. He's also shifty enough to run the ball in the low red zone. 

Loveland is a better blocker and a better downfield route runner who can win against both zone and man-to-man coverage. He's at least Warren's equal in contested catches, and he's a more explosive player in the open field.

Just like you can make a similar argument with 15-25 running backs against Kyren Williams, Williams is good enough in an offense that features him that the argument doesn't really matter for fantasy football. 

Until it does. With small cracks showing with the Colts' scheme on Sunday and some good enough defenses ahead to potentially create more challenges that could limit the Indianapolis passing game, Loveland could emerge ahead of Warren during the fantasy stretch run, especially if a concussed Cole Kmet misses games.

The safe move is to stick with Warren, and keep an eye out for some contingency plans if you have roster space. If not, finding a favorable tight end match-up as an exercise in good streaming isn't impossible -- and often viable.

If you have Loveland, you'll want to keep your first option, but there's enough skill with Loveland's game that we could see Rico Dowdle-like emergence over the next 2-3 weeks. I'd start Loveland next week unless I had a top-five option at the position or a top-10 option with a GREAT matchup. 

Consider adding Luke Musgrave on the assumption that they'll throw him into Tucker Kraft's role and scheme him a lot of gimmes with no one around him, as they've done with Kraft. This is not a diss of Kraft; it's a compliment to the Packers' staff for having success getting their tight end into the open field.  

5. Is It Just the Beginning for Jameson Williams?

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the top 10 Matt Waldman footballguys fantasy football Week 10 Daniel Jones Kyle Monangai tyler warren Colston Loeveland Jameson Williams Tory Horton Parker Washington Michael Penix Jr. Drake London Kyle Pitts J.J. McCarthy Brock Bowers
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